Richie the Rally Goat

Not sure where to put this, but it’s a blog I’ve never seen before weighing in http://therunnersports.com/twins-must-change-to-handle-miguel-sano-situation-correctly/

May and Hughes are starting the season on the DL. Can’t bank on Mejia, Gibson and Slegers to be consistent and healthy for 35 starts. This team needs two pitchers from outside the organization that are mid rotation types or better to think they have any real intention of competing in the playoffs in 2018.

”exuding quiet confidence” is what my mentor taught me in regards to the negotiation strategy. It tells a narrative “I’m confident in my organization’s attraction to you (the free agent). You (free agent) go talk to my competitors because I know you’ll keep your promise to come talk to me before you make the final decision and I’m confident you’ll sign with me” Rarely does negotiation happen on your schedule, especially when the other party holds the upper hand.

negotiation can be very fickle, especially with different cultures. Staying in conversation and gaining a feel for where the negotiation is starting is critical. Too eager or too low of an offer and you’re out before it even starts. Too high and you look desperate or sign the guy for more than he would have signed for. Since the big boys appear to be shedding payroll it makes sense to be patient. I’d still like to see an additional (lower cost FA or trade) move made to bolster the middle of the rotation.

ask the Rockies about that

As recently as 2001 the Minnesota Twins and Montreal Expos were subject to contraction from the MLB. Fans (and Governments/the pubic who fund the building of their ballparks) do impact ownership in a real way. In a more general way, why would an organization advertise in an empty ballpark or on a TV station no one watches? Why do you suppose Midwest Sports Channel no longer exists? Why do you suppose the Twins are back on WCCO? MLB is a consumer industry. If eventually all water ends up in the ocean by some means - so does all MLB money making fundamentally end up deriving from consumers. Be it food, tickets, scalpers, being subjected to advertising consumer goods... it all boils down to Us. Without Us, none of this, including Twins Daily, exist.

Carl is dead, they work for his son Bill.

He's massively under paid to the metric, but to the market I'm not so sure. If Dozier really was seriously dangled as trade bait, wouldn't that extreme team friendly contract garner more interest? I hope the man gets paid, he's certainly earned it. I'm in agreement with "Hydrogen Dioxide Visage", 2 years with a healthy signing bonus seems about right. He went a bit bigger than I would have - I'd target 10-12 mil signing bonus and 28 mil. For reference, Daniel Murphy is on a 3 year 37 mil contract that he signed as a younger player. If you take Polanco's .723 OPS and stick him in the list of 2nd Basemen, he'd still be right around MLB average. While a steep drop off from Dozier, there's potential for improved fielding over an aging Dozier. This gives the Twins some leverage with Gordon close to ready at SS.

Is it bad that this is the guy I trust most in the Twins bullpen? that .420 FIP could really haunt - agree with BW, ability to translate success and heat into Ks is critical for Busenitz success.

If Giminez the Napoli signing would be at the cost of Grossman and Vargas too, unless you’d release Escobar or Adrianza. I wanna see a left side of the infield of Napoli and Sano.

I think the OP has made a good comparison of Levine's work to Beane. With a new FO none of us really know what to expect, so finding models to pattern decision making can help us all make better informed decisions. Good discussion starter. If I had the time to research it, I'd be interested to see a cross tab of the main MLB talent acquisition philosophies by major tenants and mark out what moves the FO has made by how they best fit. Kind of a Castro signing falls under the analytics tennant of the Rays, Rodney is a market inefficiency signing tenant of moneyball etc. On the hitting side, the money ball approach makes a lot of sense. There's a strong core and some depth coming not far behind the current ML team. Taking roster risks on market inefficiencies like Napoli or Adrianza can fill some gaps and mine additional value from situational usage. If you can afford the roster spot, Napoli or Adrianza could be very valuable to the team to win a division or traded at the deadline. If they bust, you've got backup available if you need to cut bait. On the pitching side, the issue with the money ball approach is depth. The Twins just don't have enough high level close to major league ready starting pitching, and the minor league relief pitching is looking more and more suspect. If Duke or Fernandez succeed, great you've got something. If they don't, there's no one I'd feel confident in turning to for the 8th inning setup man. All of your bullets are currently loaded into the magazine. If you need a pipeline of talent to backfill the free agent gambles, you can't very well trade them away for a front line starter, can you? SS, Catcher, and Pitcher are the prospect currency. They have a good supply of SS; but C and P are woefully thin. The way to improve the ML roster and create depth is to add to the front of the queue via free agency. Sure, no one wants another 20 mil on the roster just soaking up resources, unable to move on because you've got too much invested. You can't have 10 guys on the 25 man roster making 1 mil or less each not providing value either; the 2014 Twins can attest. Once depth is created via free agency, then trade some surplus for the mid rotation with some upside type, Archer and Cole are the big names, but there are others that we just don't know about that might come a bit cheaper in prospect capital.

Yes, Miguel Sano struck out at a higher rate than Aaron Judge, but in 2017 had an above average batting average. League batting average 600 PAs (Sano didn't qualify) is .254 ,where Sano hit .264, at least in he solid range. His on-base percentage of .354 is top quartile. The inefficiency is in their ability to keep him healthy. 600 plate appearances worth of Miguel Sano anywhere on the diamond is worth more than 483 plate appearances at 3B. I have no idea if moving the man to DH would have any impact, but it seems there's evidence as 1B and DH are the two positions aging sluggers retire at.

3b once a week, 1b once a week, DH 3-4 days a week. Injuries, inter league and 2019 covered

Many have bemoaned ideation as the most difficult phase of writing. As this is supposed to be a community, and most professional long form and script writing is team written.... maybe there should be some teamwork? Maybe some drop boxes and private forums for small groups to brainstorm? It goes back to management here as well but I imagine that is solved to some extent feretting out the thread.

I understand Twinsdaily is a mid market club that needs to build a farm system rather than sign free agents. Maybe TD needs to swing a trade? Multi prospect swap with another Twins community?

indeed, if you miss, it hurts, but if you really hit, several years of very high quality certainly help more than just one.

I struggle with the functionality for finding and interacting-with the blogs section. The main page of the mobile platform does not have the “blogs corner” like the main page of the desk top version. I don’t always think to navigate to the blogs. I only view the desktop version from work, which is rare. 99% of my hourly-Twinsdaily is mobile. It would be great if there was a promote your peers function. Give the likes to blogs some weight or something, so those of us who aren’t writers can help support those who are. Or maybe a most retweeted/most commented blog post of the period, trending type of function.

i don’t think they can put them through waivers until spring training, or maybe day one of the season.

there must be a min amount of time for players added to the 40, to remain. Otherwise protect them from rule 5 and then take them off the 40.

as Mr Brooks said, they need 2 rotation pieces, one immediate front of the rotation like Darvish that is clearly prioritized by the FO, and another 2-3 starter type. It’s not clear yet by the FO’s posture, but I doubt the FO has the budget available to sign Darvish (or maybe Arrieta) AND sign a second tier Cobb/Lynn and below that tier in free agency, it doesn’t clearly improve over Mejia/Gibson or compete with Santana Erv is in the twighlight of his career, last year was a career year for him. It’s not realistic to expect the same in 18. I expect him to regress a bit and get passed up by an improving Berrios in 18... so that second acquisition should hopefully push a healthy and realativly effective Erv to 4th

I was going to like this until I read it 3 times. ;-) Belisle seemed to pitch better as the closer than he did as the fireman - I think you are on to something with the clean inning assumption. Timing, frequency, number of pitches thrown, how many times did the guy get up to warm in the bullpen without throwing a pitch.... all can have an impact.

its not a “bad” signing, i just don’t believe Falvine will raise the bar. No evidence to suggest either way, but Falvine expected more from the prospect relievers than he got last year. What’s changed?

pitchers and catchers report Feb 13. Considering the grousing is 90% pitching related and the short supply in the FA class, I see it warranted. Rodney has already been anointed closer. If that doesn’t scream “done with relievers”, I don’t know what does. I guess they could acquire a setup man, but I was hoping for a bigger step up.

is it easy to cut ties when your bullpen is in shambles? If the Yankees or Indians made this move, Rodney is just another guy. As things sit with the Twins right now, Rodney isn’t just another guy. Next man up is a much bigger hole relatively speaking.

it depends, if this is the only reliever signed I’ll be upset. If they get another reliever I’m ok, if not a bit underwhelmed