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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed w/ both posts, the point wasn't what a return on a trade should be for the Twins, more of the amount of interest from Pittsburgh. Will I give up cash to take a flier on Light? Sure. More? Probably not. The Twins DFA'd him, so take return on a trade or risk losing him on waivers, not a big loss.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    When you name two players in a sentence such as this, it is comparative. We compare players continually. If Pittsburg was really worried Light would be claimed, why wasn't there a player traded instead of cash?
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    im with you. I've been trying to get a handle on bbref's RF and i struggle with finding a grounding point with the stat. So these few references to it come with no meaning or context or link and so I rely on the stats that I am familiar with which indicate a very good fielder in a very small sample.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    imperial? Cuz the English use the metric system too
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    until the pitching improves significantly it's all pretty much one big punt. As there were no trades to do so it stays a developmental team in my mind. The goal for the season is to develop for the future, and if you catch lightning in a bottle with Berrios and May taking big steps forward in the rotation and Chargois, Hughes and a couple others in the bullpen with the fielding improvements at SS, OF, and catcher, you might be able to become competitive in 2017. This "plan" hinges on 4 to 6 hits on the roulette wheel in a row early in the season. Not exactly high likelihood for success. So yes if everything works perfectly the DH will matter a lot. I don't see that as likely so let's see if Vargas can be that guy.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    very true, but statistical sample sizes have become more important since then. I think there's still a number and it's probably somewhere in this neighborhood and I would assume it's part of a rate over a period of time. It's still there and still important as a part of a philosophy to use all of the tools to analyze and develop players
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    you compared Light to Chargois. It's very clear to me that Chargois would be claimed, just like you said. It's still not clear to me Light would be claimed. He was traded for cash which makes him marginal to be claimed. The biggest difference between the two in terms of woulda coulda shoulda is if Chargois were DFA'd I'd be pissed and with Light DFA'd I feel ambivalent They aren't comparable players at this point in their careers.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    i also believe that some consistent fielding of first base for Vargas could help him become a more consistent player/hitter overall and by slotting Mauer in at DH more keep the veteran healthier throughout the season. I'm with you, give the 26 year old who's shown real promise a solid extended chance in 2017.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    4 repeats, impressive
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    you can make a pterodactyl of Kenny Vargas?
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    so I'm struggling w/ point of reference. Adrianza was 4.2 RF per game in 2016 and the NL leader was Story at 4.5. 2014 NL leader was Hechavarria at 4.37 and the highest over the last few years was Tulo in '07 at 5.31. Most of the NL entries have been in the 4.5 +\- .1. So that seems pretty good but I can't find a full table on bbref
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    according to fangraphs he wasn't that great of a fielder, 3.8 UZR150 aggregate with heavy streaks and a 550 ops is even worse than Adrianza.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    theres a big difference between Light and Chargois
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    If my joints start barking louder between now and 45, I'm in trouble
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'm with you. Not sure what to think of Tonkin. Willing to give him a longer leash
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    me too!
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    You can draft and develop players immediately? Last I checked quick movers take 4 years plus in the minors, let alone the time it takes to revamp the coaching staff and train/develop them as well. It may not take a full generation of draftees, but close. Let us not forget, the culture of Andy MacPhail and Terry Ryan has been in place for 35 years. It takes time to change that entrenchment. Cleveland did not solely focus its efforts on draft and develop either. Cleveland used the full repertoire of resources at every level to change the development strategy across the org. To put evidence behind it, Jack Goin has been with the Twins since 2001 as an intern. He described being tasked to look into analytics as I recall it somewhere in his early years as a full timer, and became the manager of baseball research in 2011. The culture change has already been going on for 6 years
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed 100% but this strategy will take 10-15 years to develop to maturity. This organization must get more out of the players already in their system and acquire/trade-for/rule 5 draft other players in the intermediate.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    well yeah. 7th inning reliever isn't exactly high impact. Now that I think of it. Knowing Moli loves to pick one reliever and trot him out there 2 of 3 games until his arm falls off; maybe Belisle will be that guy and Moli won't pick a guy like Chagois, Light or May. Then Belisle would have a long lasting high impact as a protector of young arms.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    true enough, but I really doubt Boshers has a long high leverage career in front of him. Tonkin doesn't exactly do a lot for me either. Marginal improvements are still improvements
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    To paraphrase Gleeman; it's impossible to screw up a 1 year deal. If he can stay healthy, he should stabilize the bullpen.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Seems like Santana is most likely to do it, but he was good last year so if the every other year thing holds up... I would predict Gibson second most likely. I would not want Duffey, Berrios or May to surpass 180-185. No need to injure the future of the franchise. I would be shocked if Hughes was a starter for an extended period in 2017
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    So much fun! Thanks for the great event.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    yep, really hard to frame balls that skip the plate and roll to the backstop
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    above average connotes "good", it's semantics.... In my mind mean or mode works better with cleaner larger sample data. So mean pitcher era is a better middle point than mean team and median team is better than mean team. 30 data points doesn't smooth the data very well. It's mostly preference and certainly nothing to quibble over. Mostly I just like when posters use specific terms for the metric so we can all be clear of intent and not derail a subject (Like this post is doing right now)
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