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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    That is really disappointing, to say the least.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    17 games ahead for another 15 minutes, when it becomes 16 Edit: man I am too reliant on excel
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    mod note: we aren’t making this a debate about defining “ace” again.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    It’s too bad WPA isn’t in the fangraphs splits tool. It seems like Duffey has gotten Hildenberger’s fireman role. My assumption his .83 WPA on the season has been climbing at a faster rate since July 1
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Great article!
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    while I agree defensive metrics have their shortcomings, benchmarking is a very strong validation tool. If even one of our metrics said different things about Grossman, it’d be fair to throw out the whole sample as hogwash. All 4 were directionally aligned. I leave “how good” absolutely up for debate. I don’t think defensive metrics have gotten the shades of the color palette, but give you a decent stoplight. I still think Robbie “the butcher” Grossman is bound for going back to his old ways.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    How could you ignore that the article quotes Twins Daily author Mariana Guzman?! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-latest-hitting-machine/ http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/luis-arráez-hitting-machine-r8003
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Back in the Dome days "Don't stop believing" by Journey was the mainstay after Take Me out to the ball game.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    me too! I love “take me out to the ballgame”
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    if we’re reduced to plunking players over petty crap, then let’s institute the mercy rule like little league.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    well stated! I disagree with pretty much every word, but it’s very well said. We’ve seen this bullpen give up 5 and 6 run leads on a regular basis. No such thing as out of hand.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Maybe Cron needs a stint on IL? Is the thumb still bothering him?
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    all the starters have to do, is do something even the best rotation in baseball doesn’t do. Cleveland averages 5.75 innnings per start and they haven’t worn down yet in the post season. Twins are second 5.68 ip/start and Houston is number 3 at 5.6 ip/start. Bullpens win championships. This is a better bp than before the deadline, and is OK, not good enough, but maybe they can find internal reinforcements. Rotation wise, Berrios, Pineda, and Odorizzi are it. Best to pray for health!
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, Pineda is critical and my number two starter of the rotation. For 2020 they must improve on that, but should still bring him back if they can. I take issue with the quality start stat. Relative to the MLB, Twins are second in Starter Innings pitches to Cleveland and fourth in earned run average. 5th in whip, 9th in K/9. While I prefer k rate and FIP over k/9 and ERA, and I’m too lazy to dig harder, it appears the Twins rotation is still well above average compared to the other 30. It’s the bullpen! Yeah I’d prefer a stronger number 2 starter than Pineda, and do not trust Gibson or Perez. I’m still real worried about that bullpen. In that hunt for October, the best bullpens make the most waves. Hopefully Graterol and Thorpe can be internal options to solidify a shakey pen
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    IKR! Health be damned, give Thorpe 2 or 3 starts, then if Thorpe takes hold of that spot, I’d be real tempted to give the hook to Gibson next for Graterol.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    At what point do you yank Perez regardless of health?
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Does Smeltzer’s data include last night? It doesn’t appear to. I think FIP and XFIP are relevant to the discussion to help isolate a bit to the pitchers performance relative to ERA. Unsure of the OP’s method, I used Fangraphs Splits, filtered to the10 most likely post season opponents, Cleveland, Houston, NYY, Oakland, Tampa, Atlanta, ChC, LaD, Milwaukee, St Louis. FIP / XFIP Berrios 4.20 / 4.92 Smelter 5.48 / 4.67 Pineda 4.03 / 4.47 Odorizzi 4.65 / 4.78 Gibson 4.76 / 4.61 Perez 4.88 / 4.59 WPA isn’t in the splits tool, but also seems relevant to the discussion. WPA 2019 / Career Berrios 1.85 / 1.95 Smelter .51 / .51 Pineda .27 / 1.17 Odorizzi 1.64 / 3.56 Gibson -.62 / -2.28 Perez -.49 / -3.08 The first three on my list are pretty easy Berrios Odorizzi Pineda I know Odo has a bad FIP/XFIP against the contenders, but really strong WPA. I just don’t trust anyone after those 3. Maybe Graterol will come up and light up the big leagues? Would you dare go into the post season with three starters? This was fun! Thanks!
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    you deserve every bit of scorn you get, Randy
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    It's great to not watch the worst team in baseball over the last decade anymore. I'm really happy about that. It's still OK to want more. It didn't take Nostradamus to predict last off season that the Twins could hit well, but pitching was going to be the issue, or that the trade deadline was going to be a difficult way to fill gaps. "I told you so" doesn't get us very far, but neither does a dose of perspective. The Twins were the only 100 game winner in 1965 (AL and NL). There's currently 5 teams in the AL alone that seem very likely to win 100 games. The Twins and Indians are in that list, both of which on pace for high 98 or 99 wins and soft schedules going forward. In the AL in 2019, you dominate or get dominated. 95 wins will probably miss the post season. It's a very different season than years past. The Twins still need to pull the pitching staff together. Hopefully they can strike gold quickly with minor leaguers. They need it.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Alka-Smeltzer! Plop, plop-fizz, fizz!
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    the bullpen is absolutely improved, and agreed, The Twins got the two best relievers that moved. I was hoping for more, if it were Giles, Romo, Dyson, i’d be very, very happy. Just Romo and Dyson and you’re counting on one of the young guys to take big leap forward. That can absolutely happen, but tough to count on. Fingers crossed that one of May, Duffey, Littell steps up big.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    that interview was aired during pregame. He said something to the effect of “I got to sleep around 2AM, got up for my flight at 4:00” He was absolutely buzzing with energy on two hours of sleep. He seemed really amped up to make a playoff push. He’s a little goofy, but he impressed me. I’m pretty meh on him still as a pitcher, but he’s already growing on me as a human being.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    As mentioned in the rumors thread, if this is the only bp move, I’m pissed. If this was the third best reliever acquired, I’m happy
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    If Romo is the third bullpen guy picked up, I’m happy. If he’s the first I’m PO’ed.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    It depends on what the FO does about the bullpen, not the rotation. Lynn has been great, and it’s very possible he’s past last year and coming back in ‘19 would be just a continuation of excellent pitching. I hope the FO would vet that out first... I really care about the bullpen and Perez, Gibson, or Pineda aren’t enough of a boost to the pen to move the needle. If it’s Lynn and nothing else, it’s a failure
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