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Chembry

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Everything posted by Chembry

  1. Chembry
    Boston non-tendered Lowe for several reasons: 1. He isn't worth the $13.5M projected arbitration, especially after the first half of the season for the Nationals. However, he was right back to Texas level production in Boston. 2. They already have a younger, cost controlled version of him in Casas. Say what you will about Casas but he has better career OPS/OPS+ than Lowe. He doesn't hit for as high average but he is more of a pure slugger. 2. They were after Alonso and are pursuing the 2 Japanese sluggers, Bregman, and Bichette. They have flexibility in their infield to move pieces to fit whoever they sign. 4. Red Sox have stated they are reluctant to go over the first luxury tax threshold (~$223M). That doesn't allow them much flexibility (~$22M), and they didn't want Lowe's contract getting in the way of them signing Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, or either of the 2 Japanese sluggers. They would go over the first threshold to sign a big name FA. If they do sign a big name FA, they will also trade away Jarren Duran to get back down to the level of the first threshold. They have also been rumored to shopping Yoshida and Hicks. Its all laid out in the MLBTR article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/latest-on-red-soxs-payroll-flexibility.html
  2. Chembry
    I think it makes Mountcastle expendable. Mayo to a lesser extent. I don’t think they trust Basallo behind the plate full time yet. My guess is that the O’s use Adley as primary C, Basallo as a primary DH and backup both C and 1B. Mayo will also back up both 1B and 3B with Westburg as the primary 3B.
  3. Chembry
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/twins-exploring-mid-tier-first-base-market.html#comments
  4. Chembry
    I am torn on Mayo. He has struggled, but showed a bit more late in the season last year. He could be turning a corner. His power seems to be real! He would cost a significant more than Mountcastle.
  5. Chembry
    Just saw that the Twins are getting 17 year old DSL catcher Miguel Caraballo...
  6. Chembry
    Interesting...
  7. Chembry
    Yes
  8. Chembry
    Double post
  9. Chembry
    I don't think it's impossible that they try to pass Alex Jackson through waivers. Susac has also played 1 game at 1B...I laugh at that, but we don't know if the Twins plan to try platoon him at 1B...Or they may very well trade Jeffers or try Jeffers at 1B. I like the pick though.
  10. Chembry
    Who knows...I don't think anything would surprise me at this point.
  11. Chembry
    @bunsen82 You got your wish! Twins selected Daniel Susac in the 1st round
  12. Chembry
    Kind of a curious signing, but good for them. They have Westburg (3B), Mayo (1B/3B), Basallo (C/1B), Mountcastle (1B), and now Alonso who will all be competing for ABs. They already extended Basallo so he will probably be the primary DH and back up Adley. Mayo/Westburg will probably platoon at 3B. Theoretically, that leave Mountcastle without a job. He may be a trade target for the Twins? Is he better than currently available free agents? His projected Arb 3 is $7.8M and only under team control for 1 year. Career numbers are similar to Lowe.
  13. Chembry
    I would be ok with Mountcastle. He is decent both defensively and offensively, Shouldn't cost much too much to acquire. But he is only under team control for 1 year. Something to keep in mind.
  14. Chembry
    Alonso to the O's on a 5/$155M https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-finalizing-deal-with-pete-alonso.html
  15. Chembry
    Birdsell is also interesting, but he won't see action in 2026. He has to stick on the 40man for 90 days to meet the rule 5 requirement, if he isn't going to pitch in 2026. On the position side TJ Rumfield (1B) is also worth a look. TD also identified him as a potential candidate. In 250g at AAA he has hit .288/.372/.453/.826 OPS/31 HR. Baseball America also selected Rumfield as one of the position players to watch, along with Susac and many others. But, the Twins don't have an open 40man spot. Let's see if they clear any space prior to the draft today.
  16. Chembry
    I kept a running tally of how many games the bullpen blew after the deadline. The Twins blew 19 leads or ties in the 6th inning or later after the deadline. Some of them didn't count in the loss column because they came back and won a few of those games. Some of those types of games are going to happen, but let's say they only blow 9 leads...well now they are closer to .500 overall and over .500 after the deadline. This team really isn't as far off as people think. The bullpen was the big problem after the deadline and will be the problem heading into 2026.
  17. Chembry
    Do we have an OF that we could trade for Caglianone? I doubt KC would do that, but I would be interested. Cags could play 1B and not be a detriment in the OF.
  18. Chembry
    It was well reported that Jax requested the trade. At that point the Twins really didn't have much of a choice but to oblige. I don't think they had any intention of trading Jax. I also don't think they had any intention of trading Varland. Cory Provus stated in an interview right after the deadline that the Blue Jays had been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. I think they finally came up with an offer that Falvey couldn't refuse.
  19. Chembry
    If O'Hearn is affordable, then Okamoto is as well. MLBTR predicts Okamoto will get a 4/$64M and O'Hearn is predicted at 2/$26M. They are within $3M of each other in terms of AAV. I know that is big to the Twins, but I would consider that relatively small difference in terms of MLB contracts. Now, the Twins haven't signed anyone to a deal longer than 1 year since Lopez signed his extension in April of 2023. Correa was the last FA signing that was longer than a 1 year deal. On top of that, Bader is the highest paid FA that the Twins signed since Correa at $6.25M. It would be a nice change if the Twins truly sign a power bat. The Pirates made an offer to Schwarber in the 4/$120M range...Seems like they are trying to compete with that pitching staff. Of course, they only have ~$30M in contracts on the books for 2026.
  20. Chembry
    The Giants have been on record saying they are reluctant to long term high value deals (over $100M) on starting P. They view those types of contracts as significant risks because pitchers tend to wear down. However, a recent report from MLBTR says that the Giants did meet with Valdez at the GM meetings. They may be out on on all the top FA SP (Cease (already signed), Valdez, Imai, Suarez) if they can't sign them to shorter deals. A trade may be their best bet to secure SP. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6852286/2025/12/01/sf-giants-tatsuya-imai-payroll/
  21. Chembry
    You summed up my questions exactly. 1. We don't know what the Twins definition of a "power" hitter truly is. The true power hitting free agents are going to be out of the Twins price range. My pipe dream is Alonso, and yes I will keep dreaming. 2. The free agent names I mentioned (Hoskins, Lowe, O'Hearn, Okamoto) aren't true power hitters, but are far better than our current option and could still provide reasonable power. I am not a big believer in Hoskins, but I think the other 3 would be a significant improvement. Okamoto is an unknown, but he is one of Japan's best hitters and still has 60 grade power. I like Lowe because he doesn't have to be platooned, but yes he is a LHH 1B. I am not big on Andujar, but he could be our RHH 1B. I wouldn't want him to play anywhere else other than 1B/DH. 3. On the trade front, you summed up my feelings exactly. It will be difficult to get a power bat without trading Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton, unless we dig into our prospects. The only power hitting 1B what I would consider "cheaper" in terms of trade capital that I can think of off the top of my head is Casas. Some will love him and some will hate him. He has a big injury risk as well. I agree on Hoskins. I don't think he is the answer either. I think Boston DFA'd Lowe for two reasons. 1. He isn't worth the $13M salary that was predicted in arbitration 2. The Red Sox are pursuing Alonso and Murakami. They currently have Casas as a back up option.
  22. Chembry
    There is always angst in Boston. My company is headquartered in Boston. I travel there regularly and have many friends that are Red Sox fans. They despise Breslow, most can’t stand Cora as a manager, and many feel like their owners are the “worst in baseball”. My experiences with Red Sox fans is that they will complain about everything. After they got bounced by the Yankees, my phone blew up with fire Cora texts from most of them.
  23. Chembry
    Bobby Nightengale posted that the Twins are looking to add a power bat along with relievers. The big free agents are probably off the table (Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, etc…), but I wonder if Okamoto, Lowe, O’Hearn, Hoskins, etc…fit the Twins definition? There are too many trade targets to mention, but that is always an option. The question then becomes, who gets traded to acquire said power bat? Personally, I don’t expect any news on Twins acquisitions from the winter meetings, unless it’s a trade, but hopefully it’s sooner rather than later.
  24. Chembry
    I do think it’s a bit unfair to single out the Twins in regards to prospects that don’t develop as well as we hope. Yes, we want the Twins to improve, but they aren’t any worse than any other team in MLB in that regard. Take a look at top 5 prospects from each team from most years and you will find several that have struggled at the MLB level. I picked a few teams from 2020 and looked at their top 5 prospects: Braves: Cristian Pace (#13 ranked MLB) is 27 and back AAA, Ian Anderson (27, back in AAA), Kyle Wright (30, back in AAA) BAL: DL Hall has been up and down BOS: 2 of top 5 are in AAA at 27 and 30 (Jeter Downs and Bobby Dalbec), Bryan Mata, Gilberto Jimenez Cubs: Brailyn Marquez, Brennen Davis A more recent example is Jordan Walker of the Cardinals. #4 MLB prospect in 2023. Hit .276/.342/.445, 16HR in 117 games in 2023. Walker hit .201 in 2024, and .215 in 2025. I could go on, but every team has prospects every year that struggle or don’t develop as they expect. We just don’t hear about them very often and certainly don’t see it on a daily basis. Could/would we like the Twins to get better?…yes, but every team goes through this. The question remains, how much more rope do we give Julien/Gasper/Outman/etc…before placing them on waivers and moving on?
  25. Chembry
    The most disappointing aspect of the Harry Ford trade was the price Washington paid to acquire him. Yes, Seattle got a decent reliever, but it seems like a low price for a catcher that has a decently high floor. Ford was one reason I was hoping to trade with SEA at the deadline, especially with catching being a need beyond 2026.
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