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goulik

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Everything posted by goulik

  1. goulik
    ABW 2.0 IMO. I see more hope for Palka than Walker but wouldn't it be great if both could learn to control that zone and put up those numbers in the majors? Sano 3B, Walker DH, Palka LF, Vargas 1B. Yeah, definitely need that whisperer...
  2. goulik
    His prospect status is dropping like a rock. I do not hold much hope any more
  3. goulik
    YES! Next year World Series because of PBO pep talks!! Can't wait!
  4. goulik
    But how many of those can stick a full season on an MLB 25 man roster? Thorpe does not need protection despite his potential. His injuries, recovery, Mono, missed time and low level in the minors...he won't get picked. Garver needs protection. Turner? He can't even make Seths most recent top 50 Twins prospects... Vielma and Granite are stretches to be considered for an MLB roster spot for a whole season!?! I could see a team trying to tuck a Romero or Jorge into a bullpen but they would probably be returned before the year was up unless they were picked by a team really tanking. Wheeler might get picked but are you THAT desperate to hold on to him and would someone really want him. He has done well in the minors but is not projected very highly as a prospect either. On the other hand, there are plenty of names that could be removed from the 40 man roster to make room. I am not concerned about if we can protect them. I'm just interested to see who they think highly enough of to protect.
  5. goulik
    Completely agree on your take on Turner. He's Drew Butera all over again. I would not yet rule out Murphy or Garver but I think the best bet for a long term solution in the system is Ben Rortvedt. That is a few years out though.
  6. goulik
    When ranking prospects, in my own head, I'm looking at likelihood of reaching the majors and projecting how good they will be in MLB. Having that as my filter, being higher in MiLB automatically means they are closer to the majors. That would cause me to shuffle the rankings you have put up here Seth, but overall, a good first stab. You have said many times this is the preliminary list, I am looking forward to the final rankings and the handbook.
  7. goulik
    As for the 40 man roster, there are plenty of names to cut and even more that could be protected as prospects who will be eligible for the rule 5. It is going to be quite interesting (at least to me) to see who is added. On the other hand, it is difficult for me to see very many prospects in the Twins MiLB system that are not on the 40 man and need protection. I just don't see many that could be on a 25 man roster all next year. I do not believe Plouffe, Milone, or Suzuki will be here come Spring. Albers, Dean, and Beresford are obvious 40 man cuts in my opinion.
  8. goulik
    It seems to me that this thread has been hijacked by another walker discussion. Please, if you want to discuss walker like this, take it to a walker thread not a 40 man thread.
  9. goulik
    The college pitchers do not excite me as 1-1 fast track pitchers like past years. I want an ace
  10. goulik
    Gotta keep the win streak alive. We're still at two...
  11. goulik
    Great question, what do the stats tell us? What is our Ability to predict, ability to scout, ability to be a GMintraining MiLB stats reveal odds to us not facts. The odds are what you see is what you will get. Baseball is all about playing the odds. The best scouts, the best GMs and the best managers know not only how to use statistics but their own feel for predicting the games, situations, tools, makeup, and the players themselves for when someone will defy the odds (see Jack Morris, 1991, game 7) Who could have predicted Mauers implosion/concussionhumaness at the plate? Who would have known Dozier was going to hit 40+ Homers? I hoped that would be his 2016-17 combined total! I am predicting Buxton HoF... We will see if I'm right or a moron. Heck, what were the odds of the Twins winning it all in '87? I'll tell you, slim to none won it all that year. What do MiLB numbers tell us? They tell us what the odds are they will be successful long term but in the end, it's still playing the lottery to an extent.
  12. goulik
    Yes, I think you are missing something. The odds of Cabbage developing into something are falling and Molina may need to do a lot more to be considered highly, but there are some really young guys among these six names and 18 year olds are hard to project. You never know when a Badoo, Miranda, or Cabbage will develop into a Dozier! They all very well might become flops but any of them could be MLB role players, starters, stars or even HOF. When you play the lottery, you usually lose but there are also winners out there. These six just have farther to go than the next 25 (according to Seth who often knows more than most of us)
  13. goulik
    I was really disappointed by Palacios all season but he still seems like someone with a ton of potential. Needs to stay healthy. Light has to be higher...He has already been called up. Can't get much closer to being ready than getting a call up. Hopefully he starts in AAA for a month or so next Spring and reaches his potential quickly. The 31-50 crowd doesn't have me excited yet but seeing Rosario and Melotakis this low says there is a lot of promise yet to come on this list!
  14. goulik
    I knew this. Point being simply, I sure hope the new PBO and GM can do what we did last time we lost this much, turn a bunch of talent into some rings. Buxton, Kepler, Rosario vs Puckett, Brunansky Sano vs Gaetti Vargas vs HrBek Berrios vs Viola We have some talent for sure...
  15. goulik
    I appreciate you voicing your appreciation for an appreciation thread.
  16. goulik
    Still Living up to your name I see.
  17. goulik
    Check out this Roster. PS. We drafted Kirby that year... http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teamstats/roster.php?y=1982&t=min Here's to 2 more WS in rings in the next 5-9 years.
  18. goulik
    It's hard to recognise Euphoria when your punch drunk...
  19. goulik

    CERA

    goulik replied to goulik's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    I would not think this would be a catchers "responsibility" but I believe high IQ catchers will pick up on things and become on field asistant pitching coaches. Watching a starter with the same delivery for 60 pitches suddenly change some things with runners in scoring position and the temperature turned up is a good time to have a catcher calm the guy down and get his delivery back in sync with what he had been doing without using coaching trips to the mound. Yes, Yes! Jack? Any comments on how one might evaluate the impact of a catcher on the pitching staff in particular?
  20. goulik

    CERA

    goulik replied to goulik's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    I threw this one out at the wall to see what everyone said before really commenting so here's my comment... My "eye test" caused me to look for this and I then delved deeper knowing that this could be and actually really is deceptive. CERA is much like win loss, it's dependent on other people and not completely (or when it comes to catching, not really at all) on what the player is doing on the field. Looking through the years, Suzuki has had several seasons of sub 4.00 CERA. He has been in the middle of the pack vs the league in previous years and with the worst pitching staff in the majors, it's no wonder he has the worst CERA in the league among qualifiers this year. He never has been top half but has he ever had a top half rotation? Examining game by game for the last two months, Molitor has indeed been very inconsistent on who catches for whom. It really does appear quite random and examining that data revealed that most pitchers were consistently similar no matter the catcher. Duffey did have his one quality start throwing to Centeno, and Gibsons best 2 games have both been with Murphy behind the dish. Talk about small sample size issues... I am still convinced that some pitchers do better with certain catchers or styles of catchers but it appears to be a marginal difference not a major one.
  21. goulik

    CERA

    goulik posted a topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Let's talk about CERA (ERA by who's catcher...) Suzuki: 785.1 innings, 5.46 ERA Centeno: 401.2 innings, 4.88 ERA Murphy: 148.1 innings, 3.76 ERA http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=FIELDING+II&group=1&sort=8&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=0 Discuss...
  22. goulik
    Are we looking only long term? If we're trying to push the time table into the next couple years, Dozier is our current cornerstone with Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios vying for those remaining top three positions. No one should ever be untouchable. A GM should always be ready to fleece another team if they offer a ridiculous amount for any given player.
  23. goulik
    Maybe you should have waited until tthere were only 10-11 games left to atttempt this list... How about: There are lots of cheap seats available and there is nothing much better than a beautifful fall evening at Target Field
  24. goulik
    SMH, No!! (You used to many words for this thread to get a like. Keep it to one or two words. P.S. Parenthesis don't count)
  25. goulik
    I will freely admit that last year I said patience, wait one more year. But I also said there is a process on judging the GM and if this year was bad the GM should be held accountable. I have not changed my opinion on the process of judging a GM, We have a GM that ran out his string and shown an inability to get us a winning team mostly because of poor decisions regarding pitching and manager. On the other hand, I think he did a nice job of collecting talent for a lineup that we will enjoy for years to come. I believe that Sano and Buxton will become the studs we dream of. Buxton will be more of a defensive wizard CF with above average offence and speed vs Sanos lesser defense and huge home run/RBI numbers for the next decade. I believe in them 100%. With Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, and the kids still to come, our bats will be fine. Our next GM has to address starting Pitching, catcher, and MLB coaches/manager. I still think that our pitching has a good chance of looking better with some changes in coaching and catcher... Just an eye test judgement partially based on stats from pitchers that got worse when they arrived and got better when they left. All this to say, I am not ashamed that I preached patience. Its baseball not football after all. But this year firmly established what needed changing. When we finally hire the new guys, I will preach patience with the new guy as he tries to fix whats wrong. It might not happen over night.
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