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SaberNerd

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Everything posted by SaberNerd

  1. SaberNerd
    Looking at Charlee Soto, he has thrown 68 and 72 pitches in his last 2 games. This makes me think this is more of a Raya-specific concern than a general strategy for developing HS pitchers. I've significantly downgraded him as a prospect for this reason
  2. SaberNerd
    I haven't heard anything, but this draft looks pretty chaotic after the top 15. The Twins may view Sanford as the BPA and will save some money because he could fall 10 picks if they don't take him. As for the money, there will always be HS players that go to college because nobody meets their number and you can nab them in the 3rd round (Winokur last year). You could also potentially use it to get one of the top HS arms at 33 who may go overslot there. It probably isn't worth it to draft Sandford to save 600K if you think he's the 30th best player, but if you think he's close to the best at the pick it would make sense to save for later picks.
  3. SaberNerd
    Festa last pitched on the 20th. He should be able to pitch Thursday.
  4. SaberNerd
    I took a look at the top pitchers since 2010 by fWAR. Of the top 20 pitchers 17 were drafted 13 were 1st round picks Only 2 were taken outside the top 60 picks. (deGrom, Kluber). Fun fact, both were pitchers at Stetson Only 3 were outside the 40 picks. 2 were signed as international FA. The remaining 1 was Yu Darvish The Twins have done a great job of drafting college pitchers late and haven't had a ton of success drafting pitchers early. But if you want to get an elite pitcher (and we know we won't sign one with this ownership) the other options are to trade or draft a pitcher in the 1st round. In terms of this mock, I'd rather go hitter/pitcher than pitcher/hitter (unless the Twins think they can fix Brecht). I have a feeling none of Caldwell/Lindsey/Morlando/Gillen/Lewis will be available at 33, while a top prep arm will be.
  5. SaberNerd
    HS Pitchers are definitely the least likely group to work out, but you don't value picks on a binary good/bad. They became (rightfully) hated when teams were consistently drafting them in the top 10, but at some point once they fall far enough the reward becomes enough to take the high risk.
  6. SaberNerd
    That's the joke
  7. SaberNerd
    Kepler hasn't been a great hitter, but he is an elite fielder. Statcast data going back to 2016 has him as the #1 corner outfielder and #16 for all positions. He averages saving about 10 runs above an average player per season. More analytic-driven player valuations like Kepler; Fangraphs has him overall as a 50 run above average player (19 WAR) for his career, which is pretty great for a guy who signed for under $1M at 16.
  8. SaberNerd
    In the little he threw in college, pre-draft, and offseason for the Twins, the metrics on his slider were insane. He was throwing it upper-80s with >3000RPM spin. He also had a fastball has the type of spin that misses bats. He may never stay healthy. He may struggle to throw strikes. He may not have the same level of stuff when he comes back. But he has shown a slider than could be one of the best in all of baseball.
  9. SaberNerd
    Against RHP, we have Larnach/Kepler/Santana/Miranda at LF/RF/1B/DH. I don't see which guy I'd take out for Wallner. Farmer has disappointed, but he's irrelevant to this since Wallner doesn't play 2B.
  10. SaberNerd
    For the people talking about how they won't add salary, that won't be an issue. It is common for the team trading the player away to eat all of the outgoing salary in exchange for better prospects. Mets would 100% pay for all of Alonso's contract if we gave enough. I'm not sure that we are good enough to merit making a big trade though. We aren't going to be the best team, so really just hoping we get hot in October.
  11. SaberNerd
    I haven't seen him, but he is a 25yr 1B/DH repeating AA. The odds on those players aren't good.
  12. SaberNerd
    Good to look back. Right now, would definitely want Royce over anyone else in the draft. For the pitchers, 3 of the 4 have missed a season due to an injury--only Gore has stayed healthy.
  13. SaberNerd
    I'd rather have a great reliever than a 7th starter. If we really need the depth, we could likely aquire a Varland level starter without touching our top 30 prospects.
  14. SaberNerd
    The Wolves had the 3rd largest cap hit, and currently have the 1st for next season. Also, of the 6 teams that would currently make the AL playoffs, we have the 3rd highest salary (9M more than KC, 26M more than BAL, 27M more than CLE, only 15M less than SEA). If we had signed a 20M player, it would likely only be 1 more win at this point of the season. The main issue is that we just don't have an elite player that has been healthy.
  15. SaberNerd
    I'm in agreement with going hitting over pitching, as the FO has shown an ability to find pitchers later in the draft that they haven't for hitters. I would like to get a day 1 pitcher, as it's hard to find an elite pitcher later in the draft (looking at MLBPipeline, the top 50 prospects has 0 IntFA pitchers, and the latest a pitcher was taken was #91). Appreciate the writeups. If Brecht is on the board, he is the guy I'd want. The upside is just too much to pass up, even with the major command concerns and preferring offense early.
  16. SaberNerd
    I had the same thought, but looking at the numbers Keaschall was far better than Schobel's was. Schobel: .288/.366/.493 10.4%BB/18.4%K Keaschall: .335/.457/.544 15.2%BB/14.7%K
  17. SaberNerd
    It will be interesting to see where the catching goes in this draft. Historically, it has been the position that draft media really struggles to predict. The Twins could easily pick Lomavita/Moore at 21 if they feel strongly they can stick at C, and the could just as easily pass on them at 33 if they don't. While there really isn't a prospect in the system that looks like a big-leaguer, we could be looking at extending Jeffers, and the FO has gone to FA multiple times in the past to get a catcher. Catcher might not be a priority high in the draft even with how nonexistent good catchers are in our farm.
  18. SaberNerd
    The ERA has been fine, but he's walked 13% of hitters while only striking out 22%. He hasn't given up a single HR this year, but last year he gave up 5 in 17.1 IP. I don't believe that he suddenly has figured out how to not give up HR, which leads me to not buy him being a pitcher with an ERA in the 3s.
  19. SaberNerd
    Velo was down yesterday, so he may not throw for a few days to rest. With the bullpen getting used heavily yesterday, they need arms today.
  20. SaberNerd
    Graterol has turned into a good reliever, but his fastball doesn't miss enough bats for him to be an elite reliever. His 1.2 ERA last year was significantly lower than the 3.0 that his peripherals suggested or his career 2.8. Maeda was elite in 20, and was solid in 21 and 23 even though he wasn't able to pitch the entire year. Good but not great relievers make 5-10 mil/yr. I'd easily do that deal again.
  21. SaberNerd
    I'd put a successful season as returning to being a 4 WAR player. Whether he does that in 21-22 style of domination but missing large chunks of games, or 17 style of playing 131 games in CF but not being a force in the lineup. If there are too many different goals for what he needs to do for it to be successful, he likely won't hit one of them.
  22. SaberNerd
    Castro/Festa/Gonzalez would be an easy deal for us. I think the rangers would easily pull the trigger if that was the ask as well, so I'm skeptical that this is what they are asking for. I also think there is little chance that a 5 mil increase is actually a barrier for a player of his caliber, and if it was they could include a 15-20 org prospect to get the Sox to eat it.
  23. SaberNerd
    The current FO hasn't drafted many HS pitchers. For the first 2 days, here is the list excluding last year. Landon Leach, 2017 2nd Blayne Enlow, 2017 3rd (way overslot, 1st round money) Regi Grace, 2018 10th Marco Raya, 2020 4th Chase Petty, 2021 1st (traded for Gray before 1st full season) Leach/Enlow were busts. Raya looks really good. Grace has been mediocre for a 10th rounder. Not sure there are any insights to take from a sample size of 4 players in 6 years. I'm also not sure how much Stewart/Berrios are applicable given that our organizational approach to pitching is completely different now.
  24. SaberNerd
    His velo has been up 1.5mph from his average last year.
  25. SaberNerd
    If the right deal is there, I'd definitely be willing to move him. I doubt that we are able to get a pitcher that is better than Ryan/Ober or one who has significant control who will be better than Varland/DeSclafini. Long term, 5 spots in the infield + DH. I think both Kirilloff and Julien have enough offensive upside to provide value at 1B/DH, so I wouldn't trade AK unless we get a legitimate long-term option.
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