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FilthyMogwai

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Everything posted by FilthyMogwai

  1. FilthyMogwai
    Not touching this one. I like Julien and Ryan better now and in the future than Arraez and Jesus Lizard.
  2. FilthyMogwai
    Yuppers! Cuddyer with a .331 in 2013 and Morneau .319 in 2014. Darn. Time flies.
  3. FilthyMogwai
    I like JD, but that swing and miss... Drove me nuts in the Houston series and he'd add to that.
  4. FilthyMogwai
    Agreed. Additionally, he's been up and down ... not only from season to season, but within seasons as well. Going into a start on May 25th last year, a Cy Young season, he was sporting a 5.40 ERA. Nearly 1/3 of the season down. You don't have any idea what you're going to get with him. And he'll be paid like one of the game's elite arms. Also, historically he's been a 5 to 5 2/3 innings pitcher. Which, I suppose, doesn't mean what it used to. And let's not forget those 99 walks. If not for a nearly impossible to repeat 5.8 hits per 9, his WHIP and ERA would be much higher. In fact, his 2.25 ERA was nearly 1.2 runs per 9 better than his FIP. Major regression candidate. But when we're talking about a guy that's asking $270M over 9 years? No way. He may still be decent or even good next year, but the risk is higher than most pitchers in that tier and there's a chance he just implodes too.
  5. FilthyMogwai
    Lee, yes. Lewis, no. But, of course, it depends on the pitcher. The cost of a frontline SP is where my skepticism is and where it has been all offseason. I've seen a lot of names thrown around, and I've always said, "Are you okay with what trading what it would cost to get them?" Personally, I would have rather ween Woo or Miller in this trade than AD and all the rest.
  6. FilthyMogwai
    Nailed it. I agree 100% Only concern is that Anthony DeSclafani will still be in the rotation.
  7. FilthyMogwai
    I don't think Bellinger is finding quite the market that he had hoped and I'd be willing to bet it's because of his up and down career. Possibly the same for Snell. A one year "prove it" contract makes a lot of sense for Belli. And the Twins are the perfect team to do that. Having said that, I don't see it happening.
  8. FilthyMogwai
    I'm skeptical, but this is my hope as well. This FO has shown it will flip players in the past. The reason for my skepticism is what it's been all off-season, I don't think teams are willing to let go of quality SP for anything less than a mint.
  9. FilthyMogwai
    Personally, I'm not a fan of the trade. I do think they got decent value but I'd rather not see DeSclafani every 5th or 6th turn. Prospects and the relievers and freeing up Polanco's (reasonable) salary, okay. But adding DeSclafani all but assures we'll see him in the rotation. That's not a move that a team with playoff aspirations should be making. Hopefully this gets the ball rolling for another move to actually upgrade the rotation. But, I'm skeptical that can be done.
  10. FilthyMogwai
    Thanks. $4-Mil still not bad for a 5th starter, even as the Twins have little extra to work with. The trade itself I'm not a fan if but if it had actually added salary, I'd have lost my mind.
  11. FilthyMogwai
    That's the thing. DeSlafani included in this trade, makes it worse in my opinion. I don't want him pitching on this team every 5th day. Period. I don't mind the other pieces, though I was also hoping the Twins would be the ones trading prospects with Polo for a strong #1b to pair with Pablo.
  12. FilthyMogwai
    Put this way, I'm less irritated by the trade. I'd have preferred Anthony DeSclafani not be included at all. But I figured there had to be something covering his salary.
  13. FilthyMogwai
    Ugh.
  14. FilthyMogwai
    Wonder if this opens up Polanco's salary to sign a free-agent?
  15. FilthyMogwai
    I used to love the HOF discussions and would obsess over if a player would make it. I thought that it mattered, then they elected Harold Baines... Seriously, though. I've learned to appreciate players that were superstars for a short period of time, or had very good careers that didn't quite meet HOF approval. Guys like Joe Carter, Johan Santana, Dale Murphy, Kenny Lofton, Tim Lincecum, Nomar Garciaparra, etc. All superstars at the top of the game for a while. Not making the Hall doesn't diminish them at all in my eyes. Correa has a chance, but I see him falling just short as of right now. Fortunately, he's a SS that plays amazing defense and has been clutch in the post-season. Those things should help even if he falls short of certain benchmarks.
  16. FilthyMogwai
    Add to this list, whatever Sano is. 😆
  17. FilthyMogwai
    I didn't agree with Baldelli's decision to start Ober in Game 1 over Ryan. And I definitely didn't agree with the short leashes on both. However, I'm presuming growth. My hope is that they develop into those guys hopefully as soon as this post season. So I also agree, another playoff caliber starter is needed.
  18. FilthyMogwai
    Very cool. Thank you for sharing your story. My fandom goes back to '88. I was around in '87 but more interested in toys and kids cartoons. 1988 I discovered baseball by reading the backs of 1988 Topps baseball cards. I always preferred Topps to Donruss because I could get career stats rather than last 3 or 4. By '89 I was full-on Twins homer. Kirby was my boy and I panned the boxscores daily watching his run to the AL batting crown. 1991 was so great and the highlight of my fan experience in any sport. I used to read about baseball players of the past and listen to stories from my dad about guys like Camilo Pascual and Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat and Harmon. Along the way by doing my own research, I learned about guys like Zoilo Versalles, Cesar Tovar, etc. Along with the greats of the game. I still wish I could have seen some of them play. In fact reading their stats and doing the math on their numbers, I learned that I enjoyed math and data analysis. Which helped me become the analyst I am today.
  19. FilthyMogwai
    I can't even imagine what it would take to get both Luis Arraez and one of those two SPs. Holy smokes! I don't think Twins fans would be happy with what it would take.
  20. FilthyMogwai
    This right here. I think every team is likely holding onto whatever starting pitching they have, at least while there are still big names to be signed on the market. The Twins are likely finding the asking price for quality SPs to be rather high.
  21. FilthyMogwai
    I see them as young potential All-Stars on the rise -- Ryan more so than Ober. So maybe I'm over-rating them.
  22. FilthyMogwai
    Is this a research project or did you actually watch him play? I'm not judging either way, I'm just curious to hear from those before my time that actually watched him play, how much of a phenomenon he was. I'm always fascinated by the "beyond the boxscore" type insights. For my part, I always remember the individual performances of the 1991 team being way better than they were because the World Series was such an iconic series.
  23. FilthyMogwai
    I didn't see him as a HOFer, so I've been surprised by the number of videos and articles that I've seen online suggesting that due to his career WAR and age, he's on a HOF track. Just another example of where WAR and I disagree.
  24. FilthyMogwai
    He IS cooked and his head is NOT screwed on right. The results are evidence enough, but regarding his mental game -- that's not me speculating, he said so himself. You can Google search that for yourself, if you'd like. Obviously, it is possible the Twins could fix him. But it's equally possible that they cannot. I'd argue more so. How often do you see pitchers that are messed up this bad, regain Cy Young form? I'd venture to guess that for every one you can name, I can name at least 10 that did not. I don't mind the Twins taking a chance on him, but not at the expense of viable and affordable MLB talent.
  25. FilthyMogwai
    You like telling me what I'm thinking, don't you? I'm not "writing him off", I'm saying his value right now (at this moment) is so low that I wouldn't pay much more than a mid level prospect for him because he's nothing more than a wild card at this point. The only saving grace is that the injuries last year were not arm related, and improved conditioning might fix the lower body injuries - but fixing what's between his ears is another story. His pitch sequences were all out of whack. Happens all the time, and there are good examples of players fixing it (think John Smoltz '91) and bad examples of players not fixing it (Scott Erickson second half of '91 for the rest of his tenure as a Twin). And this isn't even about Kepler or Polanco's value in my mind. It's about not paying tangible assets for an extreme wild card. I actually hope Manoah gets back on track - for my dynasty fantasy league and for the rookie cards of his that I own. Plus, I just like the guy - loved watching him mic'd up talking to Smoltz at the 2022 AS game while on the mound. Just two dudes talking their craft.
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