NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

The Mets send Verlander to the Astros for Houston's #1 prospect, Drew Gilbert (MLB #68) View full rumor

The next time Duran blows a game, you better be out here screaming from the rooftops. If a guy like Jorge Alcala or Brent Headrick were putting up the same performances as Emilio Pagan and had the same stat line, he would not receive 1/10th the vitriol and disgust that Pagan receives. Every reliever, even Duran, is going to blow games. If you can pitch well on days when you don't blow up and reduce the number of blow-ups, you'll add value to your team, which is exactly what Pagan has done for the Twins. You can bitch and moan about blown losses, but they happen; it's part of the sport. If you want to watch baseball where no one makes mistakes, you can play MLB The Show and turn off the system whenever you give up a run.

Rental relief pitching is usually fairly cheap, and adding depth is generally a good move. I expect them to go heavy on cheap rental players, but adding a guy like Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas could shore up the outfield for 2024, even if it would cost multiple top-10 guys.

The Padres are generally in a weird spot. They have one of the worst farms in baseball, yet their future is still bright because they have Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Darvish, Musgrove, and Cronenworth in SD for the next long while. In 2023, they don't want to waste a year of pre-$500M contract Juan Soto. But they'd need to buy to compete, and I doubt they really want to empty more of their farm on a team five games below .500. In my opinion, Preller is one of the worst GMs in baseball, as he has been given both time to rebuild and a top-5 budget and has turned it into two playoff appearances since 2014. If I were him, I would look at what the White Sox just got for Giolitto and Lopez and try to get something similar for Snell/Hader (probably more), but knowing him, he'll trade away half of his top prospects for a big name like a Jack Flaherty or a Salvador Perez.

In 2022, Pagan was branded with the scarlet letter by many Twins fans. His career numbers against Cleveland are abysmal, and he blew many games against our AL Central foe in key spots. In 2023, Pagan has been an important piece of the Twins' bullpen and I do dare say integral. Among Twins' RP with more than 15.0 IP he ranks: 1st in IP (43.1) 4th in ERA+ (130) 2nd in appearances (40) Tied for 3rd in win probability added (0.2) Tied for 3rd in runs better than average (4) 4th in WAR (0.7) 6th in leverage index (0.93) These stats tell a good story of what Pagan has been for the Twins this year. He often enters medium to low-leverage situations and gives the Twins above-average pitching. Nobody is making the case that they want Pagan to be a regular 8th/9th inning arm, but he has stepped up in a big way after Stewart went on the IL. Not everyone in the bullpen is going to be a lockdown arm in the mold of Jhoan Duran. Pagan, ironically, has been a pillar of stability in the middle of the Twins' pen who adds value more value to the Twins than he takes away.

We'll get a clearer picture in a week, but the Twins are hot and are starting to pull away from the rest of the central. With that in mind, acquisitions need to be more geared toward October baseball than August/September baseball. Here would be my guess at what the playoff 26-man would look like (assuming the health of guys with short-term injuries). Rotation: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Sonny Gray Bullpen: Oliver Ortega, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Brock Stewart, Kenta Maeda, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran Catchers/INF: Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez, Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa OF: Byron Buxton, Willi Castro, Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Polanco are somewhat wild cards as they have been out most of the year and should not be counted on, but they could come back. On paper, this is a team built to win in the postseason. A rotation of four #2 starters, a bullpen with four dominant late-inning arms, and a lineup with homerun potential and one of the most prolific postseason hitters of the last decade (Correa). This is a long way of saying that the Twins don't need to go for broke. Another LHRP and a RH OF seem like good gets, but they don't need to be Josh Hader and Dylan Carlson. I really like Brent Suter from the Rockies, as he'll be a more reliable lefty than Moran, and I'd rather not see Oliver Ortega in a key spot for the Twins in October. Pham, Canha, Grichuk, and Duvall are going to be very cheap and give the Twins some power against lefties. Traditionally expensive assets like controllable starters and star position players don't need to be in play this year.

I'm not sure I follow the line of logic here. If the Twins do nothing in the offseason, the 26-man roster will look like this and be $60M cheaper: Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, B Ober, C Paddack, L Varland Bullpen: J Balazovic, O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, W Castro, R Lewis OF: M Wallner, A Kirilloff, G Celestino, T Larnach, N Gordon DH: B Buxton This team isn't anything too spectacular, a borderline top-10 staff with a below average lineup and defense. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Jose Miranda and some guys we've seen on the pitching side (Winder, Sands, SWR, Headrick, etc) provide some young and decent depth that will probably lead the team to a 70-80 win finish. Now let's see what happens if we use those $60M we shed by letting guys walk on free agents Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, Julio Urias (6 years 26M APY), B Ober, C Paddack Bullpen: O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, Andrew Chafin (2 years 6.5M APY), B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, Whit Merrifield (1 year 6M APY), R Lewis OF: Lourdes Gurriel (4 years 17.5 APY), A Kirilloff, W Castro, T Larnach, N Gordon DH: B Buxton *Note* This hypothetical only calculates the usage of 56M of the 60M. The other $4M will be used for five or six veteran minimum contracts. Again, the names are not necessarily what matters here; it's the usage of the money. One big arm, a right-handed OF, and some additional pieces can be paid for with $60M. The only Twins player moving into arbitration is Ryan Jeffers, and I doubt that he'll break the bank in his first year, so the salaries of the pre-FA players won't increase very much. On paper, this team probably has the best rotation in baseball, a top-ten bullpen, and a lineup that has a healthy mix of accending players (Julien, AK, Lewis) and productive veterans (Buxton, Correa, Gurriel). I think an exciting aspect of the Twins this winter will be that the players they are losing are not cornerstone players, and many are probably overpaid somewhat. I think the depth of this team will allow them to spend big on a couple of players rather than give out twelve $5M/1yr contracts to fill endless holes. The rotation will be a question mark, but there are plenty of names available (Stroman, Kershaw, Nola, Snell, Wacha, and the aforementioned Urias will slide in the top of any rotation), and the Twins still have Winder, Paddack, Headrick, and SWR who could probably be fine 5th starters to help save the 'pen when Ryan/Lopez/Ober aren't starting. The window is open because we have three co-aces on cheap contracts through 2027. We also have young hitters like Lee, Julien, AK, Lewis, and eventually, Jenkins who will provide $20M+ dollars of value each year while being paid much less than that. That allows the FO to not have a top-10 payroll but still compete.

The Keuchel decision is really interesting. I would assume that he would have trade value (for cash or intl bonus pool money) if the Twins decide that they do not want him at the major league level. Lefty pitching is something that the Twins do not have much of, and I would prefer Keuchel to Headrick/Winder/Sands in a mop-up/6th SP role. He could be a fantastic addition that helps this young pitching staff. Or he could have a couple of rough starts and get cut. Either way, there is very little risk.

Not only would the Twins (probably) think this is too much to give up, but I would think the Cards would want the centerpiece of the Goldschmidt deal to be a pitching prospect. I would think that we'd have to give up Winder, Raya, and a top-10 hitting prospect. Not to mention that giving up a middle-of-the-order bat to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat seems like a bad idea.

I guess the point of my post was to help prevent this last bit. The Twins' payroll goes down about $60M in the offseason ($39M if they pick up options on Kepler and Polanco). As much money as that is for the Twins to spend, it is not enough to grab a starting outfielder, setup man, two staters, and a backup infielder. If the Twins don't address multiple of thos concerns by 08/01/23, we run the risk of seeing Celestino as an everyday CF, Cole Sands taking the ball every fifth day, and/or Jorge Alcala in a leverage role.

Whatever brand J-Rod uses for elbow guard needs to use that in an ad. If that pitch hits you clean, your bones are getting send to the next dimension.

With the amount of Twins/Vikings games I have watched, the chance of me having a heart attack before I turn 35 is nonzero.

It's been a while since I have had Emilo Pagan induced palpitations. Hopefully I can get through this game without ending up in the ER.

I do like Julien long term. I think him and Brooks Lee allowed the FO to shop Arraez.

Eduard Julien looks very, very good right now. His 2B defense has even improved.

Lane Thomas has 2.5 years of team control left, and is currently sporting a .293/.342/.488 line. According to BTV, he'd cost exactly what you said: Wallner+Larnach+Top-15 prospect. Washington could look to move him, as I doubt their window of contention will open before 2025 and they have an intriguingly high amount of OF prospects.

The Twins are going to have a lot of turnover this offseason. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joey Gallo, Emilio Pagan, Donovan Solano, and Michael A Taylor are unrestricted FA. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco may have options/opt-outs exercised. There are also some DFA/Non-Tender candidates like Celestino, Garlick, Gordon, and Stashak. That's thirteen players who have contributed in the past two seasons. With three members of the opening day rotation and a full outfield likely to leave, the Twins need to keep next season in the back of their heads when acquiring talent this offseason. Trading for an inning-eating 4th/5th starter and a right-handed outfielder who are controlled through 2024 seems paramount. The outfield would look pretty barren if MAT, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon leave. Even if Gordon stays, an outfield of Castro/Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Wallner does not inspire much confidence, especially defensively. Players like Ramon Laureano, Connor Joe, and Dylan Carlson could fit this bill (cheap/medium/expensive). With a top three of Lopez/Ober/Ryan, the Twins could look to in-house options like Varland, Paddack, SWR, Headrick, and Sands to fill the last two spots. However, having 40% of your rotation relying on unreliable players seems ill-advised. Adding one arm to help alleviate concerns sounds like a good plan. Trevor Williams, Paul Blackburn, and Patrick Sandoval could be on the Twins radar (cheap/medium/expensive). What do you think? The market is fairly dry this year, but if the Twins can address some of their offseason issues in the next week or two, would you do it?

Can Keuchel be a mop-up/6th starter for the Twins? I don't think Sands throws strikes often enough to be effective in this role long term and come late September/October, Keuchel's experience likely comes in handy. I worry that there will be a logjam in the bullpen when Thielbar/Stewart return and/or the Twins acquire another arm via trade, though that's not a bad problem to have. Given the depth of the Twins, I think the most likely scenario would be for the Twins to promote him before the opt-out, have him make one or two starts/appearances, then trade him to a team like Padres/Mets/Cardinals for international bonus pool money. I can't imagine that he'll stick around unless one of our top 5 get hurt or the Twins go on a losing streak and have a fire sale.

I love how the same fans who are whining about Steer, CEH, Arraez, and Cano succeeding on other ballclubs now want to empty out the farm for a rental lefty bat. Bellinger's surplus value on BTV is less than $1M, which means that a fringe top-30 prospect is likely all it will take. Maybe they can throw in a bullpen piece like Fulmer/Boxberg and some cash for a prospect in the range of Schobel/Hidalgo. I don't think the Twins have a particular need for LH OFers, but the cost will not be high, regardless.

If you seriously think that the Twins can sell and still be a competitive team, you are delusional. Who do you want taking the ball every fifth day? Varland? Headrick? Woods-Richardson? Sands? Winder? What if one of Maeda/Ryan/Ober/Lopez gets hurt? Also, a playoff rotation needs to include four— especially since the introduction of the WC round. Maeda is going into the bullpen, as he did when he was in LA, and I doubt anyone wants to see the equivalent of Randy Dobnak in Yankee Stadium again. After this season, the Twins have four years of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Ryan, and Ober, five years of Lewis and Buxton, and six years of Correa and Julien. That's nine all-star-caliber players who are in town through 2027. Not to mention Jenkins, Lee, Wallner, Rodriguez, and Varland are/will be on global top-100 prospects. If you think trading Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler for a top-20 prospect and three packing peanuts is going to drastically improve the future outlook of the Twins to the point where it's worth giving up on a year where the Twins are first in the division, you are similarly stupid. You can bitch and moan about the prospects they lost in the last 12 months due to trades, but you can't ignore the fact that the Twins have three co-aces in the rotation and two in the bullpen, three top-2 selections of which two are all stars, and an on-base machine signed for the foreseeable future. The Twins have a top-3 rotation and top-3 bullpen in terms of WAR. They had the 3rd easiest schedule in baseball entering the second half, and they currently sit 2.5 games up on a bad Cleveland ball club that may be trying to shop their ace and shortstop. Postseason teams with an elite rotation and bullpen have been really dangerous in the past decade (see: every team that has made the AL/NL Championship Series). You win in the postseason by hitting home runs and pitching well. This Twins team does those things exceptionally well. They also have hit good pitching well this year; they have just struggled to put up crooked numbers against poor pitching like they did in 2019. Don't be too surprised when the Twins start rolling against weaker competition in the second half. I would like to have an all-star take the mound every fifth day to ensure that they do so.

The market for Ohtani may be a little thinner than you'd expect with him being the best player in the game. The AL West has a couple of suitors that make sense (Seattle & Texas), but I highly doubt they will trade in division or to the cross-town Dodgers. The Braves, Astros, and Marlins do not have the minor-league talent to get a deal done. The Reds, Orioles, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks are emerging from rebuilds/retools and aren't going to substantially shorten their windows for a rental. The Rays and Brewers are fits in theory, but are unlikely to extend Ohtani. With them being small-market, it doesn't make much sense for them to give up top prospects. That leaves the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Giants as likely suitors. If the Angels are willing to trade in division or to the Dodgers, that's still only six teams that are willing/able to pull of an Ohtani trade. Personally, the Giants make the most sense, as the Blue Jays have four above average starters and the Yankees may not want to move Giancarlo Stanton to the field.

You do realize that this FO has only had six years to develop pitchers. Also, in six years, we've seen Duran, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Jax make their debuts. I think that qualifies. Since 2017, the Twins have used a top-100 selection on pitchers Landon Leach (HS), Blayne Enlow (HS), Matt Canterino (HS), Chase Petty (HS), Steve Hajjar (College), Cade Povich (College), Connor Prielipp (College), and now Soto. Leach is the only "bust" of the list, with Enlow, Canterino, and Prielipp still in the organization and progressing. Petty is progressing well with the Reds, Hajjar is now in Cleveland and their pitching system wanted to trade for him, and Povich is striking out everything in the Orioles' system. Prielipp needs to get healthy, but looks to be a very high ceiling guy. I don't know where your thinking is but this organization has been great at bringing in good, cost-controlled pitching (hence why we have a top-5 staff in the majors). From the Twins taking Joe Ryan, a fastball-only 25 year old AAA starter into a bona-fide ace with three excellent pitches, taking a 20 year old Jhoan Duran at high-A to a dominant young closer, finding Bailey Ober in the 12th round and turning him into a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, or turning the previous FO's 3rd round pick into a great setup man (Jax). If your measuring stick is wanting every pitcher your organization selects to turn into 2006 Johan Santana by their age 23 season, the Twins FO has failed (and so has every FO in baseball). However, they have created a top-5 staff while using limited FA money and draft capital on pitching. But sure, be upset that the 2020 fourth round pick who is already at AA and appearing in the futures game hasn't debuted yet.

Sounds like Marco Raya 2.0. A good fastball that is going to gain velo with age and a slider that could become a great out pitch. I feel good about the organization's ability to develop him.

Soto to the Twins. With how good Marco Raya looks, I think Charlee will be put in a great spot to succeed.