NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

The only real limitation that wOBA has is that it does not account for negative plays (GIDP) or in-game situations. Both players have negative clutch ratings (Gallo's is worse), but wOBA does not overinflate the value of sluggers the way SLG or OPS do, which is why I chose wOBA/wRC+ to compare Jeffers and Arraez, as it does not overinflate HR production. wOBA and wRC+ help quantify how beneficial players are to run creation (the whole point of an offense in baseball): there are no smoke and mirrors trying to deceive you in my post. I don't understand why you think Joey Gallo is miserable offensively. Yes, a BA of .176 is putrid, but he balances it out by walking a lot. His OBP is .302, which is a bit below league average, but Gallo does have 20 HR in 321 PAs, which is certainly above average. You overrate BA way too much; it doesn't really tell you all that much about the quality of a hitter. A .176 hitter with 20 HR is a much better offensive player than a .250 hitter with 5 HR, especially when Gallo walks as often as he does.

The whole point of wRC+ is that every offensive contribution is weighed in proportion to how beneficial certain actions (single, walk, HR, etc) are to an offense. That's why I was not using OPS, SLG, OBP, AVG, etc in my post, because singles are more valuable than walks, and two singles are more valuable than a double and a strikeout. wRC+ doesn't give Gallo, or Arraez any extra boost in the way that other stats do. You win baseball games by scoring runs. If Gallo helps you score runs better than ~50% of MLB hitters, then his offensive contribution is league average. Similarly, if Luis Arraez is helping the Marlins score runs as much as Chris Carter helped the Astros score runs in 2014, maybe we should not be singing his praises to the moon just because he has the highest batting average in baseball.

wOBA (and wRC+, by extension) encompasses most aspects of offensive production and weighs them according to how much they help an offense score runs. It turns out that hitting .350 without walking and having no HR power does not help your team score runs as much as hitting .280 while walking 10% of the time and having serious power. I am not dissing Arraez, he makes due with a limited physical profile, and I much prefer him offensively to other slap-hitters like Willians Astudillo. However, his style does not lend itself to helping the offense score runs in the way that a HR hitter can.

How Do You Win a Baseball Game? Despite what some people think, you win ballgames by scoring more runs than your opponent. Not having more base hits. Not striking out less. Thus, it would make sense for discussions about offensive values to be centered around run production. While the geriatric among you may think I am referring to counting stats like runs and RBIs, these stats do not tell the whole story of how impactful a player is for an offense. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is a terrific stat for quantifying how impactful a player is when he's in the batter's box. The formula for 2023 is listed below. One of my biggest gripes with slugging percentage is that it weighs extra-base hits disproportionately high compared to their impact on a baseball game. A triple, on average, is not 50% better than a double, nor is a double twice as impactful as a single, on average. This formula accounts for the true impact of certain plays on a baseball game, where a walk is 78.4% as valuable as a single, a double is 79.0% as valuable as a triple, etc. These coefficients are changed every year to reflect the impact/rarity of events. For example, in 2019 (the year of the juiced ball), the coefficient for HR was 1.940, a bit lower than it is today. There are many run-based stats that are derived from wOBA, such as wRC (and wRC+) and RAA. These statistics ignore in-game factors (runners on base, inning number, etc) and focus on how many runs a player should create given their total offensive production. How This Relates to Arraez and Jeffers The dichotomy between Arraez's perceived offensive value and his actual value illustrates that fans still care way too much about batting average. I am assuming that most fans would place Luis Arraez as one of the 20 best hitters in baseball right now, as he has the highest batting average. However, his good but not spectacular wOBA of .362 tells a much different story. His wRC+ is 128 (28% better than league average), which means that Joey Gallo (owner of a 103 wRC+) is 80.5% of the hitter that Luis Arraez is (in terms of weighted runs created). A wRC+ of 128 is very good, but noted offensive superstars like Kurt Suzuki (126 in 2017), Stephen Piscotty (126 in 2018), Chris Carter (125 in 2014), and Gregory Polanco (123 in 2018) have all had seasons with a wRC+ within 5% of Arraez's campaign. None of these players received an All-Star nod (in that season), a sliver slugger, or MVP votes, and I think it's important that we contextualize the season Arraez is having. Ryan Jeffers, on the other hand, is having a season that's flown a little bit under the radar. His wOBA of .371 and wRC+ of 139 are both fantastic. For reference, Torii Hunter, Eric Chavez, and Andruw Jones never had any season with a wRC+ eclipsing 139. He does have fewer than half of the PAs that Arraez has had, but he's been more impactful on a per-PA basis. He strikes out close to 30% of the time, but his quality of contact is exceptional. A hard-hit rate of 43.9% and an average launch angle of 16.8 degrees means that he's consistently hitting hard line drives. In contrast, Arraez's 23.9% hard-hit rate (much lower than it was in '22) does not give him much ability to do damage in the same way that Jeffers does. He has grounded into a double play three times more often than he's homered, while Jeffers has homered almost twice as often as he's hit into a twin-killing. But... But... But... Some of you may believe that keeping the line moving (not getting out) is very valuable, especially when you hit in front of power hitters. I am pleased to inform you that Ryan Jeffers' OBP is .377, very close to Arraez's .393. Arraez reaches base two more times over the span of 125 PAs, which is not exactly the difference you'd expect between the two players. They both have nearly identical foot speeds (Jeffers has actually been a wee bit quicker than Arraez in '23), and Jeffers has more stolen bases (3 vs 2) and is better in pretty much every baserunning statistic. Jeffers is not a good baserunner by any means, but Arraez's baserunning has been particularly atrocious in '23 (-2.1 BsR per Fangraphs). Jeffers has Arraez beat in most categories except hitting for average, as his power, defense, baserunning, and arm are significantly better. Jeffers also walks enough for the difference between the two's batting averages to be made up. The only credible argument against Jeffers is his lack of PAs.

DK made all the difference today. I don't think he bullpen pitches three of four scoreless innings in extras if Keuchel had not pitched five scoreless. The complexion of the extra innings would have looked a lot different if we were not able to use our three best relievers and Dylan Floro. Hopefully, we can get some runs early tomorrow and avoid having to use one of Duran/Thielbar/Pagan for a third consecutive game.

Kind of interesting that you mention OPS when I never mentioned it in my comment (I am in agreement that it naturally overrates slugging due to the fact that slugging is almost always a higher number than OBP). wOBA is actually a weighted average, which is why wOBA is much more precise than OPS, as it weighs offensive contributions more fairly. I am curious to hear why you feel wOBA "hides" offensive ability despite the fact that it accounts for XBH, HBP, intentional vs non-intentional BB, and uses PA instead of AB as the denominator. wOBA gives a much better snapshot of total offensive production than a traditional slash line, as 1) it is just one number and is easier to compare, 2) the denominators of the slash line are inconsistent, and 3) slugging disproportionately weighs XBH to offensive production (a triple is not 50% better than a double, on average, nor is a double twice as good as a single). WPA is not a great stat for hitters (as mentioned above, it's basically just RBIs with a college degree), but in my view, it is the best stat for relievers. Giving up 6 ER in one inning does not matter in the top of the 9th of a game your team was already losing 11-1. However, giving up one run in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game is much more damaging, yet ERA would not be able to tell this story. It's the reason why Jhoan Duran's 2022 season (1.86 ERA) is substantially better than Matt Wisler's 2020 season (1.07 ERA). Duran accumulated a WPA of 4.6 (in 67.2 innings), while Wisler's figure was only 0.7 (in 25.1 innings). ERA does not include strand rate, unearned runs (there still is some blame for the pitcher), or leverage. Again, it's the same message from me. Instead of using more accurate numbers that take many factors into account and weigh them properly, you chose to use unweighted and less holistic statistics because you are unhappy with the fact that some nerd is able to make more informed opinions on the game of baseball.

Batting average is technically a form of analytics. You just prefer to use outdated and imprecise analytics like batting average rather than more precise data like xwOBA, OBP, and wRC+. Every manager will use some form of analytics to make decisions. Some use traditional statistics like ERA, batting average, and RBIs, while others use newer analytics like WPA, wOBA, and SIERA. Analytics is using numbers to tell a story, and you prefer narrower, less holistic analytics, to tell a narrow-minded and incomplete story about certain baseball players because they play a style which you don't agree with.

I would make a case for Mauer's MVP season. He led MLB in each slash category AVG/OBP/SLG while playing catcher. Mauer's OPS (1.031) was actually higher than both Carew's and Killebrew's MVP seasons. Mauer's '09 season is far and away the best offensive season by a catcher in baseball history, while there are many better offensive 1B seasons than Killebrew's and Carew's MVP seasons.

Most of the good pitchers (besides Ober, Jax, and Thielbar) were acquired via trade. I think this FO is good at developing hitters and acquiring pitching while generally not being good at the reverse.

Teams are extremely volatile in the postseason. If I am not mistaken, MLB has the most postseason upsets of any of the American sports, and it's generally a surprise team like the '21 Braves, '19 Nationals, '17 Astros, etc, that ends up being the last team standing. For as dominant as teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Rays have been in the regular season over the past half-decade, they only have one WS between the three. For every star playoff performer like a David Ortiz, Carlos Correa, or Madison Bumgarner, there's a David Freese, Kenny Rogers, BJ Upton, Ben Zobrist, David Eckstein, or Gene Tenace who will put his team on his back somewhat unexpectedly. The Twins already have known playoff performer Carlos Correa (Career .849 OPS hitter in the postseason, .026 better than regular season), and I bet Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, or Matt Wallner have some ability to pull an '08 BJ Upton. Or the Twins could flounder as they did in '19 and '20. It really is a crapshoot.

Civale's trade value was likely 4x-5x higher than Sonny Gray's and 6x-7x higher than Maeda's. Our prospect haul for those guys likely would not have made a meaningful impact in 2024/25/26. There's no reason to punt on playoffs this year just to marginally improve our chances in 2027.

The market was weird this year, and I wish they had added a Brad Hand/Brent Suter/Andrew Chafin/David Peterson. There was no reason to seriously spend for a bat (especially when the market was so thin this year), but you should always look to add mid-leverage relievers at deadlines if you're competing. Unless they plan on running Duran into the ground the way the '16 Cubs used Chapman.

I have been a big fan of Andrew Chafin for a while now. I didn't think he was available, and I am guessing the compensation was not too great. Twins should have been in.

Rental relief pitching is usually fairly cheap, and adding depth is generally a good move. I expect them to go heavy on cheap rental players, but adding a guy like Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas could shore up the outfield for 2024, even if it would cost multiple top-10 guys.

The Padres are generally in a weird spot. They have one of the worst farms in baseball, yet their future is still bright because they have Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis, Darvish, Musgrove, and Cronenworth in SD for the next long while. In 2023, they don't want to waste a year of pre-$500M contract Juan Soto. But they'd need to buy to compete, and I doubt they really want to empty more of their farm on a team five games below .500. In my opinion, Preller is one of the worst GMs in baseball, as he has been given both time to rebuild and a top-5 budget and has turned it into two playoff appearances since 2014. If I were him, I would look at what the White Sox just got for Giolitto and Lopez and try to get something similar for Snell/Hader (probably more), but knowing him, he'll trade away half of his top prospects for a big name like a Jack Flaherty or a Salvador Perez.

We'll get a clearer picture in a week, but the Twins are hot and are starting to pull away from the rest of the central. With that in mind, acquisitions need to be more geared toward October baseball than August/September baseball. Here would be my guess at what the playoff 26-man would look like (assuming the health of guys with short-term injuries). Rotation: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Sonny Gray Bullpen: Oliver Ortega, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Brock Stewart, Kenta Maeda, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran Catchers/INF: Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vazquez, Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa OF: Byron Buxton, Willi Castro, Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Michael Taylor Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Polanco are somewhat wild cards as they have been out most of the year and should not be counted on, but they could come back. On paper, this is a team built to win in the postseason. A rotation of four #2 starters, a bullpen with four dominant late-inning arms, and a lineup with homerun potential and one of the most prolific postseason hitters of the last decade (Correa). This is a long way of saying that the Twins don't need to go for broke. Another LHRP and a RH OF seem like good gets, but they don't need to be Josh Hader and Dylan Carlson. I really like Brent Suter from the Rockies, as he'll be a more reliable lefty than Moran, and I'd rather not see Oliver Ortega in a key spot for the Twins in October. Pham, Canha, Grichuk, and Duvall are going to be very cheap and give the Twins some power against lefties. Traditionally expensive assets like controllable starters and star position players don't need to be in play this year.

I'm not sure I follow the line of logic here. If the Twins do nothing in the offseason, the 26-man roster will look like this and be $60M cheaper: Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, B Ober, C Paddack, L Varland Bullpen: J Balazovic, O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, W Castro, R Lewis OF: M Wallner, A Kirilloff, G Celestino, T Larnach, N Gordon DH: B Buxton This team isn't anything too spectacular, a borderline top-10 staff with a below average lineup and defense. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Jose Miranda and some guys we've seen on the pitching side (Winder, Sands, SWR, Headrick, etc) provide some young and decent depth that will probably lead the team to a 70-80 win finish. Now let's see what happens if we use those $60M we shed by letting guys walk on free agents Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, Julio Urias (6 years 26M APY), B Ober, C Paddack Bullpen: O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, Andrew Chafin (2 years 6.5M APY), B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, Whit Merrifield (1 year 6M APY), R Lewis OF: Lourdes Gurriel (4 years 17.5 APY), A Kirilloff, W Castro, T Larnach, N Gordon DH: B Buxton *Note* This hypothetical only calculates the usage of 56M of the 60M. The other $4M will be used for five or six veteran minimum contracts. Again, the names are not necessarily what matters here; it's the usage of the money. One big arm, a right-handed OF, and some additional pieces can be paid for with $60M. The only Twins player moving into arbitration is Ryan Jeffers, and I doubt that he'll break the bank in his first year, so the salaries of the pre-FA players won't increase very much. On paper, this team probably has the best rotation in baseball, a top-ten bullpen, and a lineup that has a healthy mix of accending players (Julien, AK, Lewis) and productive veterans (Buxton, Correa, Gurriel). I think an exciting aspect of the Twins this winter will be that the players they are losing are not cornerstone players, and many are probably overpaid somewhat. I think the depth of this team will allow them to spend big on a couple of players rather than give out twelve $5M/1yr contracts to fill endless holes. The rotation will be a question mark, but there are plenty of names available (Stroman, Kershaw, Nola, Snell, Wacha, and the aforementioned Urias will slide in the top of any rotation), and the Twins still have Winder, Paddack, Headrick, and SWR who could probably be fine 5th starters to help save the 'pen when Ryan/Lopez/Ober aren't starting. The window is open because we have three co-aces on cheap contracts through 2027. We also have young hitters like Lee, Julien, AK, Lewis, and eventually, Jenkins who will provide $20M+ dollars of value each year while being paid much less than that. That allows the FO to not have a top-10 payroll but still compete.

The Keuchel decision is really interesting. I would assume that he would have trade value (for cash or intl bonus pool money) if the Twins decide that they do not want him at the major league level. Lefty pitching is something that the Twins do not have much of, and I would prefer Keuchel to Headrick/Winder/Sands in a mop-up/6th SP role. He could be a fantastic addition that helps this young pitching staff. Or he could have a couple of rough starts and get cut. Either way, there is very little risk.

Not only would the Twins (probably) think this is too much to give up, but I would think the Cards would want the centerpiece of the Goldschmidt deal to be a pitching prospect. I would think that we'd have to give up Winder, Raya, and a top-10 hitting prospect. Not to mention that giving up a middle-of-the-order bat to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat seems like a bad idea.

Can Keuchel be a mop-up/6th starter for the Twins? I don't think Sands throws strikes often enough to be effective in this role long term and come late September/October, Keuchel's experience likely comes in handy. I worry that there will be a logjam in the bullpen when Thielbar/Stewart return and/or the Twins acquire another arm via trade, though that's not a bad problem to have. Given the depth of the Twins, I think the most likely scenario would be for the Twins to promote him before the opt-out, have him make one or two starts/appearances, then trade him to a team like Padres/Mets/Cardinals for international bonus pool money. I can't imagine that he'll stick around unless one of our top 5 get hurt or the Twins go on a losing streak and have a fire sale.

If you seriously think that the Twins can sell and still be a competitive team, you are delusional. Who do you want taking the ball every fifth day? Varland? Headrick? Woods-Richardson? Sands? Winder? What if one of Maeda/Ryan/Ober/Lopez gets hurt? Also, a playoff rotation needs to include four— especially since the introduction of the WC round. Maeda is going into the bullpen, as he did when he was in LA, and I doubt anyone wants to see the equivalent of Randy Dobnak in Yankee Stadium again. After this season, the Twins have four years of Duran, Lopez, Jax, Ryan, and Ober, five years of Lewis and Buxton, and six years of Correa and Julien. That's nine all-star-caliber players who are in town through 2027. Not to mention Jenkins, Lee, Wallner, Rodriguez, and Varland are/will be on global top-100 prospects. If you think trading Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joey Gallo, and Max Kepler for a top-20 prospect and three packing peanuts is going to drastically improve the future outlook of the Twins to the point where it's worth giving up on a year where the Twins are first in the division, you are similarly stupid. You can bitch and moan about the prospects they lost in the last 12 months due to trades, but you can't ignore the fact that the Twins have three co-aces in the rotation and two in the bullpen, three top-2 selections of which two are all stars, and an on-base machine signed for the foreseeable future. The Twins have a top-3 rotation and top-3 bullpen in terms of WAR. They had the 3rd easiest schedule in baseball entering the second half, and they currently sit 2.5 games up on a bad Cleveland ball club that may be trying to shop their ace and shortstop. Postseason teams with an elite rotation and bullpen have been really dangerous in the past decade (see: every team that has made the AL/NL Championship Series). You win in the postseason by hitting home runs and pitching well. This Twins team does those things exceptionally well. They also have hit good pitching well this year; they have just struggled to put up crooked numbers against poor pitching like they did in 2019. Don't be too surprised when the Twins start rolling against weaker competition in the second half. I would like to have an all-star take the mound every fifth day to ensure that they do so.

The market for Ohtani may be a little thinner than you'd expect with him being the best player in the game. The AL West has a couple of suitors that make sense (Seattle & Texas), but I highly doubt they will trade in division or to the cross-town Dodgers. The Braves, Astros, and Marlins do not have the minor-league talent to get a deal done. The Reds, Orioles, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks are emerging from rebuilds/retools and aren't going to substantially shorten their windows for a rental. The Rays and Brewers are fits in theory, but are unlikely to extend Ohtani. With them being small-market, it doesn't make much sense for them to give up top prospects. That leaves the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Giants as likely suitors. If the Angels are willing to trade in division or to the Dodgers, that's still only six teams that are willing/able to pull of an Ohtani trade. Personally, the Giants make the most sense, as the Blue Jays have four above average starters and the Yankees may not want to move Giancarlo Stanton to the field.

You do realize that this FO has only had six years to develop pitchers. Also, in six years, we've seen Duran, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Jax make their debuts. I think that qualifies. Since 2017, the Twins have used a top-100 selection on pitchers Landon Leach (HS), Blayne Enlow (HS), Matt Canterino (HS), Chase Petty (HS), Steve Hajjar (College), Cade Povich (College), Connor Prielipp (College), and now Soto. Leach is the only "bust" of the list, with Enlow, Canterino, and Prielipp still in the organization and progressing. Petty is progressing well with the Reds, Hajjar is now in Cleveland and their pitching system wanted to trade for him, and Povich is striking out everything in the Orioles' system. Prielipp needs to get healthy, but looks to be a very high ceiling guy. I don't know where your thinking is but this organization has been great at bringing in good, cost-controlled pitching (hence why we have a top-5 staff in the majors). From the Twins taking Joe Ryan, a fastball-only 25 year old AAA starter into a bona-fide ace with three excellent pitches, taking a 20 year old Jhoan Duran at high-A to a dominant young closer, finding Bailey Ober in the 12th round and turning him into a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, or turning the previous FO's 3rd round pick into a great setup man (Jax). If your measuring stick is wanting every pitcher your organization selects to turn into 2006 Johan Santana by their age 23 season, the Twins FO has failed (and so has every FO in baseball). However, they have created a top-5 staff while using limited FA money and draft capital on pitching. But sure, be upset that the 2020 fourth round pick who is already at AA and appearing in the futures game hasn't debuted yet.

Sounds like Marco Raya 2.0. A good fastball that is going to gain velo with age and a slider that could become a great out pitch. I feel good about the organization's ability to develop him.