Cody Schoenmann

Last offseason, the Twins struck gold, finding their ace for the foreseeable future in Pablo López. With the impending departure of 2023 AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray, the Twins are once again in need of frontline starting pitching. Could this promising Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher be the 2024 version of López? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio - USA TODAY Sports Roughly three weeks ago, I wrote an article on three left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider pursuing in free agency. In the article, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery were highlighted as three top-tier options that could adequately counteract the impending departure of AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and his 5.3 fWAR. Many who follow the Twins had concocted mock offseason plans fueled by grand ambition due to the immense optimism sprung upon by the franchise finally ending their 18-game playoff losing streak and putting up a worthwhile fight against the then defending World Series Champion Houston Astros in the ALDS. Unfortunately, the embers of those plans have been smothered by the cold cup of water that was the announcement of the Twins planning to undergo "significant payroll cuts" for the 2024 season. As Kim Ki-taek eloquently stated in the 2019 film Parasite, "You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way." To shift from the pessimism just a smidge, though Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery are no longer realistic left-handed starting pitchers the Twins could pursue this offseason, that doesn't mean that specific market is closed. Cheaper secondary-market free-agent options like James Paxton, Wade Miley, and Hyun-jin Ryu are available. Yet, none of these three left-handed starting pitchers are viable one-for-one replacements for Gray's production. Unless the Twins unexpectedly become willing to dish out a significant multiyear contract to Gray himself or a viable replacement like Snell, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- or take a flier on an injury-prone high variance free agent like Frankie Montas or Marcus Stroman -- they will not be able to replace Gray through free agency. Luckily, there is another market the Twins can search to find a viable replacement for Gray. Well-known, above-average starting pitcher trade targets like Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow are the first names that come to mind. Yet, there are less-known, above-average options which, once given resources available to them that their current team doesn't provide, could become the next Pablo López. One of those options is Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval, 27, has been a member of the Angels since 2019, with his best season coming in 2022. Here are Sandoval's numbers during his breakout 2022 season: 148 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 638 TBF, 2.91 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 6.3% HR/FB, 23.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, 0.48 HR/9, 76.8% LOB%, 139 hits allowed, 60 walks, 151 SO, 3.7 fWAR Highlighted by a sub-three ERA and near-elite HR/FB ratio, Sandoval's 2022 campaign was fascinatingly similar to many of the underlying metrics Gray generated during his 2023 Cy Young Award-worthy campaign. To provide context, here are Gray's 2023 numbers compared to Sandoval's 2022 in specific metrics: ERA Gray - 2.79 Sandoval - 2.91 SIERA Gray - 3.95 Sandoval - 3.94 HR/9 Gray - 0.39 Sandoval - 0.48 LOB% Gray - 76.8% Sandoval - 76.8% xFIP Gray - 3.64 Sandoval - 3.67 There is an obvious caveat: Gray pitched 34 2/3 more innings in 2023 than Sandoval pitched in 2022. Regardless, Sandoval's 148 2/3 innings are a significant enough sample size compared to Gray's 184, which is essentially five to six more starts. Like Gray, Sandoval was able to post a sub-three ERA, suppress home runs, leave the majority of runners on base, and thrive in skill-based sabermetrics like xFIP and SIERA, which provide a more quantitative insight into the underlying skill level of pitchers. Now, the current iteration of Sandoval is not as skilled as Gray, as evidenced by his lackluster 2023 season, where he produced a 4.11 ERA, 5.00 SIERA, 0.75 HR/9, 65% LOB%, and 4.61 xFIP. Though Sandoval finds himself in this current state with the Angels, what if he found himself in a more favorable situation? Enter Pablo López. While with the Miami Marlins, López operated in an environment that struggled to find ways to use analytics in player development advantageously. On the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted that López, upon his arrival, was approached with a plan concocted by Pete Maki and the Twins pitching coaches to adjust his pitch mix through, most notably, adding a sweeper to his repertoire and using his changeup less. Sandoval, who is in a similarly regressive situation in Los Angeles as López was in Miami, would likely benefit from the same revamp that López underwent upon his arrival with the Twins. Sandoval would have to be open-minded to the proposed ideas and adjustments like López was, but there is no reason to expect he wouldn't be, as most pitchers and MLB players are open to trying different techniques to advance and improve their craft. If the Twins were to trade for Sandoval, here is what a trade offer would likely look like: Twins Receive: Patrick Sandoval Angels Receive: Matt Wallner, Marco Raya Now, trading Wallner and Raya for Sandoval is merely a hypothetical trade, not a suggestion. Trading promising young talents in Wallner and Raya is likely an overpay. Yet, the Angels plan on competing in 2024, so they will likely want MLB-ready talent in return for Sandoval, an established Major League-caliber starting pitcher. Nevertheless, the Twins would have to send a significant package to the Angels to acquire Sandoval, who is 27 and under team control until 2027. As evidenced by his performance in 2022, Sandoval can be a frontline starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he has been the victim of an unstable and dreary situation where it is nearly impossible for a player to thrive unless they are at the skill level of Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout. If Sandoval is given the opportunity to pitch in a more progressive and sustainable situation like López was given when he was traded from Miami to Minnesota, there is potential that he thrive and become a consistently above-average starting pitcher. Should the Twins trade for Sandoval? Could he benefit from joining the Twins like López? Comment below. View full article

After arguably his best season at the major-league level, Max Kepler's trade value is as high as it ever will be. Should the Twins take advantage of Kepler's sky-high market value or keep the 30-year-old veteran in the pursuit of a World Series run? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika - USA TODAY Sports In the classic transcendentalist novel Walden, author Henry David Thoreau wrote, "In any weather, at any hour of the day or night, I have been anxious to improve the nick of time, and notch it on my stick too; to stand on the meeting of two eternities, the past and present, which is precisely the present moment; to toe that line." The Twins find themselves at the meeting of two eternities, deciding whether or not they should keep the third longest-tenured Minnesota Twins player, Max Kepler, or trade him. Critically analyzing Kepler's past, present, and future is essential when analyzing whether trading him would be in the Twins' best interest. The Past On September 27, 2015, Kepler debuted for the Twins, striking out while pinch-hitting for Twins legend Torii Hunter during a 7-1 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Since then, Kepler has played in 966 games for the Twins, hitting .236/.319/.434 (.753) with 800 hits, 153 home runs, 390 walks, and 709 strikeouts. Despite posting two above-average seasons with the Twins in 2019 (122 wRC+) and 2020 (109 wRC+), Kepler's tenure with the Twins has consistently been plagued by frustration, vexation, and wasted potential. Interestingly, Kepler, despite posting below-average seasons in 2021 (97 wRC+) and 2022 (95 wRC+), seemingly regained his 2019 Bomba Squad form and posted what was arguably his best season as a Major League Baseball player, hitting .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 24 home runs, generating 2.6 fWAR and a 124 wRC+ over 491 plate appearances. Halfway through the 2023 season, many who follow the Twins were ready to cut ties with Kepler, struggling for a third straight season, and replace him with the younger Matt Wallner, who was tearing up Triple-A pitching at the time. Luckily, the front office ignored our pleas, and Kepler became a cog in the Twins' resurgent post-All-Star Break lineup, helping the franchise win their first AL Central title since 2020. It was reported the Twins were shopping Kepler last offseason when his perceived value was much less than it is now, so should the Twins finally execute the decision they have been meandering over for some time now? The Present It is late November, and after the Twins exercised Kepler's $10 million team option for 2024, he will be under team control for one more season. For many reasons, above-average veteran players on expiring contracts are enticing to contending teams, and with the corner outfield free agent and trade market being scarce this offseason, teams may be willing to shell out surprisingly favorable offers to the Twins for Kepler's services. This train of thought was already expressed nationally when The Athletic's Keith Law wrote that he "sees the upside" with Kepler and wouldn't have been surprised if a team had offered him a 4-5 year contract worth $20-25 million per season on the open market. So, with Kepler's trade value rising, what type of package could the Twins net in return? If the Twins were to trade Kepler, it would make sense for them to make another position player for a starting pitcher swap, like they did trading Luis Arráez to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López last offseason. Similarly to last offseason, the Twins need a frontline starting pitcher, and they yet again have a surplus of Major League-ready left-handed corner bats, like Kepler, to trade. Starting pitchers the Twins could execute this trade for include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, Alex Cobb of the Giants, and Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Although these three pitchers possess value and would slot in as the Twins' number two starter behind López, the Twins could instead sign free-agent pitchers of similar value, like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo, without having to part with their starting right fielder. The Future The Twins plan on reducing their payroll this offseason. Regardless, with Kepler costing only $10 million and the Twins not having a reliable corner outfield option beyond Wallner, who will likely be the Opening Day starting left fielder, it would be in the World Series-hopeful Twins best interest to keep Kepler at his current salary. Suppose the Twins keep Kepler, and he again produces at an above-average rate in 2024. In that case, the Twins will then be tasked with deciding whether to extend Kepler the qualifying offer, offer him a contract extension, or let him walk in free agency. The 2025 qualifying offer will likely be between $21-22 million, as it currently sits at $20.325 million and steadily increases every season. Offering Kepler, who will be 31-year-old, a four to five-year deal worth $20-25 million would likely come back to haunt the Twins as he is an inconsistent and moderately volatile player who could quickly revert to his late-2020-to-mid-2023 ways, but extending him the one-year, $21-22 million would make sense for both parties. The Twins could keep an elite defensive corner outfielder, who would be coming off two straight above-average offensive seasons, at a reasonable rate while not committing to a long-term contract that could backfire. On the other hand, Kepler could capitalize off two straight admirable seasons and earn his first big payday at 31 years old. Regardless, the Twins front office is tasked with making a tough decision this offseason. They could trade Kepler for an above-average starting pitcher or keep him and ride out his last season under team control in pursuit of their first World Series title since 1991. Should the Twins keep or trade Kepler? If the Twins traded Kepler, who would you want them to get in return? Comment below. View full article

Minnesota Vikings and NFL analyst Arif Hasan joins me to examine how analytics are used and perceived among MLB and NFL fans, writers, and decision-makers. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas and Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports The all-encompassing term "analytics" underwent much scrutiny among baseball fans and writers alike during the 2023 MLB Postseason. (What else is new?) Was the scrutiny justified? What is the overall perception of analytics, and why do executives use them when making decisions? To help answer these important questions, I wanted to get the perspective of someone who understands analytics and how they are used in a sport different from the one written about on Twins Daily. To pursue this, I reached out to Vikings/NFL writer and podcaster Arif Hasan of the Wide Left Substack and the Norse Code podcast with co-host James Pogatshnik fame. Hasan, who began writing about football because his college debate team at the University of Minnesota required him to join their fantasy football league, describes himself as "an enthusiast of analytical insights into football. I used analytics because that’s just how my brain thinks – I want to have as much evidence in front of me as possible to make a claim." Hasan wouldn't describe himself as an analytics writer in the same sense that Eno Sarris or Dan Szymborski of baseball or Timo Riske or Tej Seth of football, "whose writing on the concepts are informed by deeper statistical insight than what can be gleaned from a two-decades-old memory of AP Statistics," are but rather as someone who wanted to "use analytics much more aggressively than a number of other writers and enjoyed explaining the concepts just as much as (he) enjoyed using them." A football Aaron Gleeman, if you will. Using Hasan's immense knowledge, I wanted his perspective on a handful of Twins and analytics-centric questions. First, it would be appropriate to delve into a more recent event where data found itself in the national spotlight. Critical Nature of Analytics During and after Game 2 of the American Wild Card Series between the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays, where the Twins ended up winning their first postseason series since 2002, many baseball fans and writers alike were hypercritical of Blue Jays' manager John Schneider pulling starting pitcher Jose Berríos after just three innings pitched and 47 pitches thrown. In a piece he wrote following the game, MLB writer and insider Ken Rosenthal, Hasan's former colleague at The Athletic, stated Schneider pulling Berríos is a decision he will "never understand" and subsequently went on to express a desire for teams to "bring back feel" and that he "(does not) care how much disdain (he) might incur from those who enjoy numbers dictating how baseball games are played." Rosenthal, arguably the most prominent media figure in baseball today, went out of his way to criticize what has been one of the more essential aspects of the sports he covers since Bill James released his first "Baseball Abstracts" in 1977. The umbrella term "analytics" has long been a punching bag for those who don't understand or agree with its usage in baseball, and Rosenthal's article was yet another example of that phenomenon occurring. To get an outside perspective, I asked Hasan if he noticed whether NFL fans and writers have placed a "boogeyman" label on analytics and how they are used in in-game strategy and overall decision-making. Hasan states, "What’s nice is that the overriding emotional tone of football matches the analytical trend – which is to say that the nerds want football teams to be more aggressive, and football teams are wired for that aggression. While the tendency to tradition is strong, it’s not surprising to see some of the teams most inclined to 'hard-nosed' style play, like the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens, also comfortable with the notion of running a play on fourth down instead of giving up." What Hasan is referring to is the newfound trend of NFL teams aggressively running a play on fourth down, even sometimes deep in their own territory, instead of punting the ball away. Relating to controversy, aggressively running plays on fourth down is the NFL's version of pulling a starting pitcher to avoid having them face an opposing team's lineup a third time. However, it is a functionally different approach, as running a play is deemed aggressive, and pulling a pitcher is considered a conservative measure. Regardless, the functional difference between the desired outcomes data produces between the MLB and NFL exemplifies how analytics, the boogeyman that it has made out to be, doesn't tie managers and front offices hands behind their backs and force them to take pitchers out for the sake of playing it safe. Instead, the data guides decision-makers toward what is perceived to be the more favorable outcome, and whether that outcome is executed by being more aggressive or conservative has nothing to do with which action the data suggests to take. Differences and Similarities of How Analytics are Used in the NFL and MLB Major League Baseball is the most evolved professional sports league regarding analytics and how they are used and implemented within front offices, down to those who write about the game. Though the National Football League is lagging behind the MLB in data usage, analytics are finding their way into NFL front offices, and one of the more prominent examples of that can be found with the Vikings. Virtually every organization has analytically driven front offices that have invested resources in creating entire analytics departments. Andrew Miller, the Chief Operating Officer of the Vikings, used to be the Executive Vice President of Business Operations for the Toronto Blue Jays. Miller played a significant role in the Vikings' General Manager search after the 2021 season, ultimately leading to them hiring one of the most analytically driven GMs in the NFL in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. An analytics revolution is occurring among NFL decision-makers, and former MLB executives may be the primary reason. When asked about for his view on this evolution, Hasan stated, "NFL teams are becoming more willing to put people with analytics backgrounds in positions of power, not just the Vikings. The Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cleveland Browns have given a fair amount of influence to those with analytics backgrounds." "And, of course," Hasan added, "there’s still a strain of skepticism surrounding analytics. A scout who knows football but who can incorporate data is generally seen as superior because experience inside of football is given a premium given the atmosphere of inscrutability surrounding the sport. How can you determine if a player is good if you can’t tell the difference between man-match and man-coverage?" Traditionally, as Hasan noted, NFL decision-makers have professional or college experience playing the game. That is often the case with MLB decision-makers as well. For example, Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey played college baseball at Trinity College. However, some of baseball's other prominent decision-makers, like David Stearns, Alex Anthopolous, and Erik Neander, didn't play baseball beyond the high school level. The same can be said for Adofo-Mensah of the Vikings. Similar to what happened with those who got hired as decision-makers for MLB front offices after the modern-day analytics revolution, which occurred sometime around 2014, NFL teams like the Vikings are now opting to hire more analytically-driven decision-makers instead of simply selecting a candidate because they have been around the game for a long time. Since NFL franchises are hiring more analytically-driven general managers, are they also beginning to use analytics to make decisions as much as MLB front offices? According to Hasan, the two leagues are close in this area of data usage, and a great example of that is happening in Minnesota. "The Vikings seemingly have adopted an approach that is closer to using data-defined processes more than actual data to identify players for acquisition." Hasan states. He continues, adding, "That means process-oriented thinking, with Adofo-Mensah explaining his decisions using phrases like 'time horizons' and 'systems theory.'" Time horizons are a fixed point of time in the future, at which point specific processes will be evaluated or assumed to end. In baseball terms, MLB teams have time horizons for deciding whether a prospect can be counted on to become an effective player at the major-league level eventually. For example, with the Twins, Austin Martin's fixed point for being an effective big-league player appears to be upon us in 2024, while Keoni Cavaco's has unfortunately come to an assumed end. Hasan added, "NFL general managers are incredibly secretive about their processes, so we can only infer from what they do what their biases are. They love to buy low on players who have played well but are not valued highly on the market, primarily for injury reasons. That can be in the draft or free agency. They tend to offer those players short deals and then hope to let them prove they deserve long deals. Not much else tells us what they value at certain positions – they establish a statistical tendency one year and then completely break it the next." Does buying low on players who have played well but are not valued highly on the market, primarily for injury reasons, sound familiar? Not only are the Twins and other MLB front offices engaging in this practice, but decision-makers in other sports are also. It is easy to be hypercritical of the Twins and act like they are the only team signing low-risk, high-reward secondary market players. Yet, when put into perspective, it becomes evident that practices that are perceived to be Twins-centric are happening in entirely different sports leagues. Some Misfortunes Not Even Analytics Can Explain Finally, every Friday on his Wide Left Substack, Hasan makes note of Non-Football Related Work he enjoyed viewing that week, and earlier this year, he praised Chris Hanel's YouTube video on the Twins 18-game playoff losing streak titled "The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports." Knowing he watched Hanel's incredibly in-depth video on the streak, I asked Hasan his opinion on the statistically anomalous cloud that hung over Twins Territory for nearly 20 years. Hasan proclaimed, "I hesitate to say we’ll never see a particular kind of statistical anomaly again because, in an infinite time frame, everything happens. But it is essentially unrepeatable – especially because it’s a playoff streak; one has to be good enough to make the playoffs that often but not good enough to win them. If it were as simple as a losing or winning streak in the regular season, that would be much more likely." He finished stating, "I’m going to say that we probably won’t, at least not in our lifetimes. It’s a truly boggling streak and doesn’t make sense within its own context." There are things not even analytics can explain, and the Twins' 18-game playoff losing streak was undoubtedly one of them. Nonetheless, when discussing how analytics are used in baseball, or anything in life for that matter, it is crucial to search for the perspective of someone who can view the matter with unbiased yet informed eyes. People are fallible to conscious and unconscious bias. Still, when attempting to understand why one's favorite sports team acts in a specific manner, it is important to understand the reasoning and method behind their actions. What are your thoughts on how analytics are used in baseball? Does the information Hasan provided change your thoughts on how analytics are used in baseball relative to other sports like football? Comment below. Also, thank you to Arif Hasan for collaborating with me on this piece. Twins Daily readers can find Hasan on Twitter at ArifHasanNFL, Threads at arifmhasan, and on Bluesky at arif.bsky.social. View full article

With the Twins planning to cut their payroll for 2024, the team won't be able to spend $11 million on a player of Gallo's skillset. Could 24-year-old power-hitting Yunior Severino be a cheaper and more productive replacement? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Headlined by rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, the Minnesota Twins just underwent one of the most exponential youth movements in franchise history. These young players, mixed with stars like Carlos Correa and Pablo López, have seemingly ushered the Twins into a new era of baseball, one free of the burden that was the ever-looming Sisyphean 18-game playoff losing streak. Unfortunately, the sense of renewal and optimism that has reigned over Twins Territory since defeating the Toronto Blue Jays on October 4th has spiraled into yet another Pohlad-induced angst, as it was shared that the team is expected to undergo payroll cuts heading into the 2024 season. Expensive veteran contributors like Sonny Gray ($13.3 million), Joey Gallo ($11 million), Michael A. Taylor ($4.6 million), and Donovan Solano ($2.1 million) are likely to depart from the Twins this offseason. Instead of replacing them with similarly priced veterans through trade or the free agent market, the front office, hindered by payroll constraints, may opt for inexpensive internal options. While we are in the early stages of the offseason and have yet to learn what the front office's plans are to replace these veteran players' production for the upcoming 2024 season, a handful of young internal candidates may be called upon. Although replacing the production of more key contributors like Gray, Taylor, and Solano will be difficult, a likely candidate to replace Gallo's production has already emerged in 24-year-old power-hitting utility player Yunior Severino. Like Gallo, it is vital to emphasize power when discussing Severino, as he finished the 2023 season tied with Astros prospect Shay Whitcomb for the most home runs in Minor League Baseball with 35. Severino accomplished this feat by hitting 24 home runs with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge and 11 home runs with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints after being promoted on August 3rd. Beyond his immense power, Severino possesses a versatile defensive profile similar to the one Gallo provided in 2023. During his time between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, Severino played 184 2/3 innings at second base, 556 1/3 at third base, 125 1/3 at first base, and was the designated hitter for 20 games. To put this into perspective, Gallo played 315 innings in left field, 46 1/3 innings in centerfield, 53 innings in right field, and 322 innings at first base, and was the designated hitter for one game during the 2023 regular season. Severino isn't a viable defensive Major League outfielder, so the Twins will need to look elsewhere to cover the 414 1/3 outfield innings Gallo provided. Regardless, Severino could easily find himself replacing the 322 innings Gallo provided at first, if not more, while serving as at least an emergency option at third. In theory, Severino, a switch-hitter, could increase his value and perception of flexibility more than Gallo, who hits exclusively left-handed, ever could. Gallo often found himself part of left-handed heavy platoon employments whenever the Twins would face a right-handed starting pitcher. Typically, switch-hitters like Severino are platoon-proof, but earning that distinction depends on whether the respective player can adequately hit pitchers of both handedness. Here are Severino's splits in Double-A and Triple-A during the 2023 season: Double-A Wichita Wind Surge Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .290/.355/.551 (.906) - 76 PA, 20 hits, three doubles, five home runs, five walks, 27 strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .287/.368/.562 (.930) - 299 PA, 76 hits, 12 doubles, 19 home runs, 31 walks, 90 strikeouts Triple-A St. Paul Saints Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .286/.400/.429 (.829) - 25 PA, six hits, zero doubles, one home run, four walks, eight strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .223/.305/.527 (.832) - 128 PA, 25 hits, two doubles, ten home runs, 11 walks, 48 strikeouts Despite a fairly significant drop-off in performance when facing right-handed pitching between Double and Triple-A, Severino still handled them exceptionally well, hitting 29 of his 35 home runs while generating a .881 OPS in 427 plate appearances against them. Severino manufactured incredible offensive numbers at both levels, which is why the Twins elected to add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from MiLB free agency and the Rule 5 Draft. If Severino hadn't been added to the 40-man roster, it is near-guarantee that a team would have selected him in the Rule 5 Draft as he is an MLB-caliber player. With Severino on the Twins' 40-man roster for the upcoming season, he will inevitably make his Major League debut in 2024. And with payroll cuts playing a prominent role in the Twins' decision-making process this season, it isn't far-fetched to expect Severino to be a key contributor for the Twins in 2024. Whether Severino can hit for power more efficiently than the current version of Gallo, who seemingly became an automatic strikeout toward the end of his tenure with the Twins, is yet to be determined. Regardless, it is reasonable to expect Severino to be an improvement. The Twins front office places a premium on power when analyzing which players to add and subtract from the 26-man roster, which is Severino's greatest strength. Severino did possess a roughly 33.9% K% to 9.7% BB% between Double and Triple-A, which is concerning but, at the same time, feasible. As long as Severino keeps his K% around 33.9% and does not skyrocket to the mid-40s, where Gallo lived most of the 2023 season, it is reasonable to think Severino could provide an upgrade for an AL Central Title-pursuing team. Assuming Severino's strikeout rate hovers around the lower 30s while effectively hitting for power from both sides of the plate, there is a significant chance he can put more than 0.7 fWAR, which Gallo generated during the 2023 season. Severino, being five years younger and roughly $10 million cheaper than Gallo, presents a unique opportunity for the Twins to immediately improve in a hyperspecific area of roster construction while saving an immense amount of money, which is the Pohlad family and, in turn, front office's main goal this offseason. With the Twins set to make relatively drastic payroll cuts this upcoming offseason, they will need to rely more on their young internal options than in past seasons. Though this is a daunting proposition, it could also be a silver lining, and the Twins could end up unearthing a viable power-hitting corner infielder who could provide more value than the $11 million risk they took in Gallo in 2023. Should the Twins put their faith in Severino to replace Gallo's production in 2024? Is giving him the opportunity too risky? Comment below. View full article

Michael A. Taylor was an adequate center field replacement for Byron Buxton during the 2023 regular season. The Twins will need to find another center field backup plan for the 2024 season, with Taylor becoming a free agent. Should the Twins look to Harrison Bader to fill that role? Image courtesy of Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Most who follow the Twins have an unwavering appreciation of Byron Buxton, as evidenced by the standing ovation he received during his sole at-bat during the 2023 ALDS against the Houston Astros. In an ideal world, Buxton would be healthy enough to play 130 or more games annually, patrolling center field at a platinum-glove level while also being a power-hitting cog in the top half of the Twins lineup. Unfortunately, that is not the world we live in. In seasons past, the Twins front office would ignore this reality. Instead of investing resources into above-average backup center fielders like Kevin Pillar, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Jake Marisnick, who could step into a starting role fairly seamlessly, the Twins opted for replacement-level players such as Jake Cave, Rob Refsnyder, and Gilberto Celestino. The Twins also used to shift Max Kepler from right field to center field whenever Buxton had to miss games, but that is no longer a viable option either. Finally, the front office invested in a reliable center field contingency option when they traded for former Kansas City Royals starting center fielder Michael A. Taylor last January. The initial plan was for Taylor to be the Twins' fourth outfielder, but he quickly became the everyday center fielder. In his first and potentially lone season with the Twins, Taylor hit .220/.278/.442 (.720) with a 96 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, and a career-high 21 home runs in 388 plate appearances over 129 games played. The MLB average for wRC+ among centerfielders during the 2023 season was 98, so Taylor was a relatively average center fielder offensively, which matches the eye test. He also made two incredible defensive plays during the postseason, most notably saving Twins reliever Louie Varland from giving up an RBI extra-base hit to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series. Nevertheless, Taylor fit in well and performed much better than the Caves, Refsnyders, and Celestinos of seasons past. Taylor is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. While the Twins could bring him back, there is reason to believe Taylor might not perform as well as he did in 2023, leaving the Twins with yet another below-average Buxton replacement. If the Twins elect to move on from Taylor, there is a younger free agent centerfielder with more upside the Twins could sign in Harrison Bader. After making his debut with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017, Bader spent four more seasons with the Cardinals before getting traded to the New York Yankees for left-handed starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery during the 2022 Trade Deadline. Bader became the Yankees' primary center fielder before struggling with injuries during the 2023 season. Eventually, the Yankees waived Bader during the unprecedented roster max exodus performed by the Angels, Yankees, and other teams, and the Cincinnati Reds claimed him off waivers. Bader finished the 2023 season with the Reds, hitting .161/.235/.194 (.429) with five hits, one double, and zero home runs over 34 at-bats. Bader generated just a 15 wRC+ during his time in Cincinnati. Admittedly, Bader's numbers to end the season are uninspiring, but none of the players claimed off waivers post-trade deadline performed well. The real Bader, we hope, lies in his 2022 and early 2023 performances with the Yankees. Here are Bader's numbers with the Cardinals and Yankees in 2022 and before he was waived in 2023: 2022 - Cardinals, Yankees - .250/.294/.356 (.650), 313 PA, 73 hits, ten doubles, five home runs, 17 stolen bases, 19.8% K%, 4.8% BB%, .106 ISO, 85 wRC+ 2023 - Yankees - .240/.278/.365 (.643), 310 PA, 69 hits, 11 doubles, seven home runs, 17 stolen bases, 18.1% K%, 4.5% BB%, .125 ISO, 76 wRC+ Neither Bader's 2022 or 2023 season performances are encouraging, but once context is provided, Bader's lackluster numbers and intrigue begin to make more sense. First, Bader performs best when used in a platoon role. He struggles mightily versus right-handed pitching but hits left-handed pitching very well. Here are Bader's platoon splits with the Yankees in 2023: Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .343/.392/.687 (1.079), 74 PA, 23 hits, seven doubles, four home runs, five walks, 12 strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .208/.243/.267 (.510), 236 PA, 46 hits, four doubles, three home runs, nine walks, 46 strikeouts Bader is below average when facing right-handed pitching, but he performs like an elite hitter against left-handed pitching. Also, Bader is a truly elite defensive centerfielder. Here are Bader's defensive metrics according to Baseball Savant: 95th-Percentile Range (OAA) 82nd-Percentile Arm Value 91st-Percentile Arm Strength 85th-Percentile Speed Taking Bader's formidable plate presence when facing left-handed pitching and adding to his premium defensive prowess in center field and immense speed, he becomes one of the best platoon players in baseball. Now, after taking this information in, you are probably thinking to yourself something along the lines of, "Aren't Taylor and Bader essentially the same player?" And, while reasonable to think, the difference between Taylor and Bader lies in their potential for the 2024 season. Bader (29) isn't much younger than Taylor (32) and he has a history of getting hurt year after year. But, as evidenced by his elite defensive center field prowess and plus base-running abilities, Bader provides higher-upside than the known commodity who is likely to regress in Taylor. The Twins have internal options in Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin, and DaShawn Keirsey, who could patrol centerfield if Buxton cannot. Still, it would be malpractice for a team hoping to make a deep playoff run to rely on players better used in utility roles in Gordon and Castro or an inexperienced player like Martin or Keirsey Jr. to start at what is one of the most vital positions in the sport. With this being recognized, signing a veteran right-handed hitting center fielder like Bader or Taylor to, at the very least, platoon with Gordon or Castro would be in the Twins' best interest. While there are more attractive free agent centerfield options in Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lee Jung-hoo, Bader is still an intriguing centerfield option with more upside than Taylor. Keith Law of The Athletic predicts Bader will net a one-year "prove it" deal worth $5-6 million. Fellow The Athletic writer Jim Bowden is essentially on the same page, predicting Bader will get a one-year, $8 million contract. With the announcement of the Twins planning to cut their payroll by $20-30 million this upcoming offseason, signing Bader to a one-year deal worth $5-8 million is one of the few places the organization could realistically spend money to improve the 26-man roster. Bader is a low-risk, high-reward platoon bat that the Twins could partner with Gordon, Castro, Martin, Keirsey, or, if the Twins are ever so fortunate, a healthy enough to play centerfield Buxton. Also, it is believed the Twins put in a claim on Bader when the Yankees waived him, so it is reasonable to think the Twins will express interest in him this offseason. Should the Twins sign Bader? Do you prefer Bader or Taylor? Do you think Bader would work well in a platoon with Gordon, Castro, Martin, or Keirsey? Comment below. View full article

Finding bullpen help should be one of the Twins' top priorities during the offseason. Though they will likely acquire talent through trade, there are plenty of viable options on the free agent market. Here are three right-handed relief pitchers the Twins should consider signing. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan - USA TODAY Sports During the 2023 season, the Twins pitching staff put together one of their best performances in franchise history. Highlighted by soon-to-be Cy Young contender Sonny Gray and newfound long-term ace Pablo López, the Twins had the second-best starting rotation in baseball, finishing with 16.5 fWAR. Unfortunately, the starting rotation was responsible for most of the Twins' stellar pitching performance, as the bullpen generated only 3.2 fWAR, finishing 21st in Major League Baseball. Jhoan Duran was an All-Star-worthy closer, and Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagán, Caleb Thielbar, and Griffin Jax put together admirable seasons. Regardless, the latter half of the Twins bullpen was a revolving door of unstable veterans and untrustworthy young pitchers such as Oliver Ortega, Dylan Floro, Jovani Moran, Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder. Duran, Stewart, Thielbar, Jax, and potentially above-average young bullpen arms in Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk are a strong baseline. Even so, the Twins need to add one or two more bullpen arms to improve what was one of the worst regular season bullpens in baseball during the 2023 season. Re-signing Pagán is a logical move the Twins could make, but even if they manage to bring back the 32-year-old hard-throwing reliever, there is no guarantee he can replicate his stellar 2023 performance. Scarily, there is a chance Pagán could duplicate his dreadful 2022 performance, and it would be understandable if the front office elects to move on from him entirely. The Twins ill be forced to make complex decisions in an attempt to fortify what is a robust front end of the bullpen. They could acquire players through trade, which is the more likely route they will decide to venture forth on, but there are plenty of viable options on the free-agent market. Minnesota appears set with their left-handed relief options in Theilbar and Funderburk, with Moran waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so they will likely pursue exclusively right-handed relief pitchers this offseason. Here are three right-handed relievers the Twins should consider pursuing. Shintaro Fujinami - 64 G, 79 IP, 23.2% K%, 12.6% BB%, 9.8% HR/FB, 7.18 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 0.2 fWAR We start this list off with the ever-polarizing Shintaro Fujinami. At first glance, the statistics many notice when looking at Fujinami's numbers are his 7.18 ERA and 9.8% HR/FB. Admittedly, a 7.18 ERA and 9.8% HR/FB are subpar. There is no way around it, but context needs to be provided to deliver a better understanding of Fujinami's struggles. Fujinami began the 2023 season as a starter for the eventual 50-112 Oakland Athletics. In his first four starts with the Athletics, Fujinami generated a 14.40 ERA, giving up 24 earned runs over just 15 innings pitched and 79 total batters faced. Fujinami was a trainwreck as a starter, so after his April 22 start against the Texas Rangers, the Athletics decided to convert Fujinami into a reliever. Upon joining the bullpen, Fujinami improved as he was able to generate a 6.03 ERA as a reliever for the Athletics from April 26 to July 18 while also slashing his HR/FB nearly in half from 13% as a starter to 7.9% as a reliever. Suddenly, Fujinami's world was flipped upside down as he went from pitching on one of the worst teams in baseball to being thrust into the middle of an unrelenting pennant race as the Baltimore Orioles traded minor league reliever Easton Lucas for Fujinami on July 19. Upon joining the Orioles, Fujinami's performance was a mixed bag. His reliever ERA dropped from 6.03 with the Athletics to 4.85 over 29 2/3 innings pitched and 126 total batters with the Orioles, but his HR/FB jumped from 7.9% with the Athletics to 9.7% as a member of the Orioles. Fujinami's first season in MLB with the Athletics and Orioles was in no way awe-inspiring. Even so, his constant improvement, specifically showing noticeable strides with the pennant-contending Orioles, is reason to believe he could become an above-average and potentially elite flame-throwing reliever in the majors. Complementing Duran, Stewart, Jax, and potentially Varland and Pagán with a 102 MPH throwing Fujinami would present the Twins with a copious amount of hard-throwing right-handed relief pitchers. Adding Fujinami to the bullpen could blow up in the Twins' face, but it could also lead to them having one of the most intimidating and overpowering bullpens in all of baseball. Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract as a starter with the Oakland Athletics last offseason. With Fujinami becoming a full-time reliever, he is expected to make around the same amount of money, with the longer term being a possibility. Nonetheless, don't be surprised if Fujinami nets a one-year deal worth $2-4 million. Chris Stratton - 64 G, 82 2/3 IP, 24% K%, 7.4% K%, 7.7% HR/FB, 3.92 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.1 fWAR The second right-handed relief pitcher on this list comes in the form of a more low-ceiling, high-floor option in 32-year-old Chris Stratton. After starting his career with the San Francisco Giants in 2016, Stratton has become a journeyman, pitching for four organizations over the past five seasons. Stratton began 2023 with the St. Louis Cardinals but was traded to the Rangers alongside Jordan Montgomery in exchange for infield prospect Thomas Saggese and pitching prospects Tekoah Roby and John King on July 30. Stratton pitched well for the Cardinals in the first half of the season, generating a 4.19 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 6.9% HR/FB, and 59 strikeouts while giving up 45 hits, 25 earned runs, 17 walks, and four home runs over 53 2/3 innings pitched and 221 total batters faced. Stratton pitched a little less well after getting traded to the Rangers, sporting a 3.41 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 8.7% HR/FB, and 22 strikeouts while giving up 24 hits, 11 earned runs, eight walks, and four home runs over 29 innings pitched and 117 total batters faced. Still, his numbers were respectable for a back-half of the bullpen type reliever on a pennant-chasing team. Stratton was a mainstay for the Rangers in the second half of the season and played a role in Texas winning their first World Series in franchise history. Stratton now enters free agency after his best season as a major-league relief pitcher. Stratton was paid $2.8 million between the Cardinals and Rangers, and it is expected he will sign a one-year contract around the $3-4 million range for the 2024 season. He would be a serviceable veteran reliever who could adequately fortify the back half of the Twins bullpen, something they needed during the 2023 regular season. Reynaldo López - 68 G, 66 IP, 29.9% K%, 12.2 BB%, 11.6% HR/FB, 3.27 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 0.8 fWAR The final pitcher on this list comes in the form of recent divisional foe Reynaldo López. López's 2023 season was hectic, as he was traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels roughly a week before the 2023 trade deadline, then subsequently waived by the Angels during their infamous roster purge that landed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and López with the Cleveland Guardians. López pitched well for the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians, patrolling the seventh or eighth-inning setup role for all three teams. López concluded the 2023 season generating a 0.00 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 0.0 HR/FB, and 12 strikeouts over 11 innings pitched for the aforementioned Guardians. Showing flashes of being an elite setup reliever with all three franchises, López illustrated he could also adequately occupy the closer role for a team if their primary closer were to have to miss a game due to rest or injury. If López were to sign with the Twins, he would instantly become the Twins' second or third-best reliever and quickly slot into contention for the role of seventh or eighth-inning setup reliever with Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, and potentially Varland. López is one of the more desirable relievers on the free agent market and will require the Twins to spend more money and offer more years than Fujinami or Stratton. Don't be surprised if López receives a two-year contract worth $6-7 million per season. Despite having a solid front end of the bullpen, the Twins need to fortify the back half. With Thielbar and Funderburk occupying the two left-handed relief roles, the Twins are inclined to pursue right-handed relief help through trade or the free-agent market. Fujinami, Stratton, and López are three intriguing free-agent options the Twins should consider pursuing. Should the Twins need to sign one or multiple relief pitchers? Does Fujinami, Stratton, or López intrigue you the most? Comment below. View full article

Thank you for your contributions, @DocBauer. I agree the Twins are more likely to go after a pitcher in the realm of Maeda, Giolito, or Ryu, (Giolito is my personal favorite!) but I think it is worth at least discussing the idea of them signing frontline starters like Snell, Rodriguez, and Montgomery.

Yes, the largest contract the Twins have given to a free agent starting pitcher was the Santana contract. They gave him 4 years, $55 million ($13.75 AAV).

Four of the Twins' five rotation spots are occupied for the 2024 season. With the fifth spot up for grabs, should the Twins pursue one of these three top-tier left-handed starting pitchers? Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez - USA TODAY Sports The Twins haven't had a left-handed starting pitcher to be optimistic about since the departure of Francisco Liriano during the 2012 Trade Deadline. Despite that, the Twins are in a unique position this offseason, planning to fill their last rotation spot through free agency, trade, or a young right-handed internal option in Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, or David Festa. Though the Twins will likely seriously consider pursuing right-handed pitching free-agent options like Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Lucas Giolito, they may pursue the first optimism-inducing left-handed starting pitcher since Liriano left over 10 years ago. There is a surplus of second and third-tier left-handed starting pitching options the Twins could pursue in Wade Miley, James Paxton, and Hyun Jin Ryu, but there are three top-tier options the Twins should seriously consider signing. Here are three top-tier free-agent left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider signing: Blake Snell - 32 G, 180 IP, 31.5% K%, 13.3% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR - San Diego Padres The first top-tier left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of soon-to-be 2023 NL Cy Young Award-winner Blake Snell. The most crucial characteristic of Snell's to note is that he is a highly volatile pitcher whose performance level undergoes extreme transformations. For example, from March 30 to May 19, Snell had a 5.40 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 18.8% HR/FB, 73.2% LOB%, and 27 walks and 48 strikeouts over 45 innings pitched and 202 total batters faced for the San Diego Padres. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Snell's performance improved significantly, and he pitched himself to a 1.55 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 8.2% HR/FB, 90.3% LOB%, and 74 walks and 191 strikeouts over 139 IP and 559 total batters faced from late-May to the end of the 2023 regular season. Despite the extreme fluctuation in performance during the 2023 season, Snell is usually a predictably formidable left-handed pitcher who can dominate lineups at a rate very few can achieve. Snell's pitch mix includes the following: (*Percentages indicate how often Snell threw each pitch.) 4-Seam Fastball - (48.6%) Curveball - (19.8%) Changeup - (18.4%) Slider - (13.1%) Like most pitchers, Snell relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, but he is unique in how equally distributed his off-speed pitches are. Snell's nearly identical curveball and changeup usage mixed with not-far-behind slider usage leaves hitters guessing, especially when he is ahead in counts. Snell is a high strikeout and swing-and-miss pitcher, evidenced by his 94th-percentile K% and 98th-percentile Whiff%. This archetype would fit perfectly with a Twins starting rotation that broke their single-season franchise strikeout record during the 2023 season. Snell's high K% and Whiff% are his greatest strengths as a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, the monkey's paw, of sorts, of Snell's high strikeout rate is that he gives up an immense amount of walks, evidenced by his 4th-percentile BB%. When assessing the risk of offering a 30-year-old pitcher a five-year contract worth over $100 million, teams must take Snell's volatile nature and high walk rate into account. Now, this type of financial commitment to a soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner is nothing to large market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that can afford this deal to blow up in their face (SEE: Carlos Rodón). Unfortunately, the Twins don't live in a world where they can take risks like this. Risk is a vehicle by which privilege reinforces itself, meaning only the privileged can take risks, and only risks are rewarded. The Twins can afford to have one behemoth contract, and that contract belongs to Carlos Correa. The Twins will have to be savvy and calculated with every other move they make, and signing Snell to an egregiously bloated contract would be neither savvy nor calculated. In a world where self-imposed spending restrictions didn't exist, Snell would be a perfect fit for the Twins. The Twins need a frontline start to complement Pablo López, and Snell is precisely that. Snell is signed to Boras Corporation, which famously has a great relationship with Derek Falvey, and this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in trading for him in the past. However, to think the Twins have a legitimate chance of signing him this upcoming offseason is merely a hoop dream and nothing else. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Snell: Five years, $122 million ($24.4 million AAV) Eduardo Rodriguez - 26 G, 152 2/3 IP, 23% K%, 7.7% BB%, 3.30 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.0 fWAR The next left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of former divisional foe Eduardo Rodriguez. When healthy, Rodriguez is a force to be reckoned with. Similarly to Snell, Rodriguez is a left-handed pitcher who can overpower hitters through his deep assortment of offspeed pitches. Rodriguez's pitch mix includes the following: 4-Seam Fastball (45.4%) Cutter (19.3%) Changeup (18.9%) Sinker (9.3%) Slider (7.2%) Similarly to former Rays great starting pitcher David Price, Rodriguez uses his sinker and cutter to paint the outside corner of the strike zone as an east-to-west pitcher. Rodriguez also uses his elite changeup as a knockout pitch for left and right-handed hitters. Now, the first two things that come to mind to those who follow baseball when Rodriguez's name is mentioned are his extended three-month leave of absence from the Detroit Tigers during the 2022 season and the fact that he exercised his no-trade clause to block a trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers during the 2023 Trade Deadline. These two occurrences have made some unfairly hypercritical of Rodriguez, his desire to win, and his love for baseball. These critiques are unfair, as we have minimal context as to why Rodriguez left the Tigers for three months in 2022 and blocked a trade to the Dodgers in 2023. When assessing whether or not the Twins should pursue Rodriguez, it is unfair to put much weight on these two occurrences. There is little reason to suspect Rodriguez wouldn't start a satisfactory amount of games for the Twins, as he has started a combined 108 games over the past four seasons. Nevertheless, this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in both signing and trading for Rodriguez in years past. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic even reported that the Twins discussed acquiring Rodriguez from the Tigers during the 2023 Trade Deadline before talks fell apart after he blocked a trade to the Dodgers. Much like Snell, Rodriguez would be a risk worth taking for the Twins, but it is doubtful the Twins front office would be comfortable pulling the trigger on a five-year deal worth roughly $100 million. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Rodriguez: Five years, $90 million ($18 million AAV) Jordan Montgomery - 32 G, 188 2/3 IP, 21.4% K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 4.3 fWAR The final top-tier left-handed pitching free agent comes in the form of World Series champion Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher, but he isn't on the same level as Snell and Rodriguez talent-wise. In fact, Montgomery is the exact opposite of Snell in that he is a low-walk, low-strike-out pitcher, evidenced by his 34th-percentile K% and 82nd-percentile BB%. Montgomery effectively deceives hitters with his large assortment of offspeed pitches that complement his low-to-mid-90s sinker. Here is Montgomery's pitch mix: Sinker (42.6%) Changeup (23%) Curveball (22.2%) 4-Seam Fastball (10.7%) Cutter (1.6%) Montgomery separates himself from Snell and Rodriguez by not being as reliant on his traditional 4-seam fastball. Montgomery instead uses his lower-velocity but higher-movement sinker to get hitters to chase to set up his wide-array offspeed pitches, a coup de grâce for hitters behind in the count. Montgomery's ability to masterfully manage games and keep his team's head consistently above water by maneuvering out sticky situations was on full display against the Houston Astros. Montgomery picked apart the Astros' right-handed dominant lineup and was seemingly the only immovable object that could stop the impenetrable force that is the left-handed power-hitting phenom Yordan Alvarez. Montgomery continued his elite postseason performance into the World Series, cinching the red-hot flame that was the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense and helping the Texas Rangers win their first World Series in franchise history. Montgomery, represented by frequent Twins collaborator Boras Corporation, will likely demand a five-year contract worth around $100 million like Snell and Rodriguez. The Twins are unlikely to hand a contract out that large, and spending that much money on a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher riding the high of a great postseason feels like a misallocation of funds. Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Montgomery: Five years, $127 million ($25.4 million AAV) The Twins will look to find a fifth starter for their final rotation spot this upcoming offseason. Whether it will be done by acquiring a pitcher through trade, signing a free agent, or promoting a young internal option has yet to be decided. Regardless of what the Twins do, deviating from the franchise norm and pursuing a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher like Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery could be in their best interest. Should the Twins consider signing a top-tier left-handed pitcher? Would you prefer Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery? Comment below. View full article

I agree that Woods Richardson would likely benefit from going to an offseason program like Driveline, It will be interesting to monitor Woods Richardson's offseason and see how much and what type of work he puts in.

Recent history tells us it will likely be the Braves lol

Yes, Woods Richardson's Location+ was 100.7 at Triple-A.

I don't have access to what their Stuff+ was at the Major League level, but I can provide you their Stuff+ while pitching at Triple-A: Varland - 101.1 Stuff+ Winder - 98.8 Stuff+ Headrick - 96.4 Stuff+ Sands - 95.2 Stuff+

FanGraphs doesn't have that information. It's on Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report Google Sheets spreadsheet, but you need to have a subscription to The Athletic to access it, so I didn't provide a link to it. I read the list wrong initially, and that's my bad, but Miller is actually 3rd on the list. First on the list is Oakland Athletics' prospect Mason Miller (131.3 Stuff+) and in second place is fellow Athletics prospect Joe Boyle (131.2 Stuff+). Mason Miller, Boyle, and Bobby Miller all have nasty stuff!

Simeon Woods Richardson's career with the Minnesota Twins organization has been a story of highs, lows, and great uncertainty. Does the 23-year-old former Top 100 prospect have a future with the Twins? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports Simeon Woods Richardson is a young and spry 23-year-old, and he wants you to know that. In an interview with ABC 6 News Rochester, Zone Coverage, and Twins Daily's Theodore Tollefson, Woods Richardson stated, "I’m still one of the youngest guys here. I may not carry myself like it, but I’m still one of the youngest guys here." Being young and spry is, of course, a favorable situation to find oneself in. To be young is to be strong, full of energy and stamina, and sharp-minded. These qualities ought to be used on something of purpose, and Woods Richardson is using his in an attempt to make a living as a professional baseball pitcher. I, as a fellow "young and spry" 23-year-old, am using mine in an attempt to be a public school teacher. Now, Woods Richardson has the potential to make millions of dollars, have access to the best healthcare in the world, and travel around the United States and the Canadian province of Ontario for free. I, on the other hand, have the opportunity to make roughly $50,000 a year, access to unreliable state healthcare, and the ability to travel to the Wisconsin Dells, barring I get an increase on my credit card spending limit (please, Discover, I want to go to Mt. Olympus). Obviously, one unnamed individual is winning here, but author Kurt Vonnegut once proclaimed, "Teaching, may I say, is the noblest profession of all in a democracy." Notice how he didn't mention professional baseball players? Regardless, Woods Richardson is prime to contribute to a Major League Baseball team. Unfortunately, he has yet to do so. Since being drafted by the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft out of I. H. Kempner High School in Sugar Land, Texas, Woods Richardson has been a part of two prominent league-altering trades and three organizations. Here is a brief history of said trades: (July 28, 2019) The New York Mets traded pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Toronto Blue Jays for right-handed starting pitcher Marcus Stroman and cash considerations. (July 30, 2021) The Toronto Blue Jays traded pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson and infield/outfield prospect Austin Martin to the Minnesota Twins for starting pitcher Jose Berríos. A silver lining for Woods Richardson being a prominent component of significant trades is that he is a wanted commodity. Unfortunately, he has yet to find consistent footing with a sole organization. Woods Richardson never pitched for the Mets or Blue Jays at the Major League level. However, he has made two Major League appearances for the Twins, including his Major League debut against the Detroit Tigers on October 2, 2022. Woods Richardson impressed in his Major League debut, facing 20 total batters over five innings pitched, giving up two earned runs while walking two and striking out three. Woods Richardson didn't make the Twins 2023 Opening Day roster and made only one Major League appearance, facing 24 total batters and giving up five earned runs while walking three and striking out five over 4 2/3 innings of stretch relief against the Washington Nationals on April 22. On April 23, Woods Richardson was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul and spent the rest of the 2023 season with the Saints. Woods Richardson struggled mightily upon his demotion, sporting a 7.38 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in early June. Luckily, a switch flipped for Woods Richardson, and he was able to manufacture the lowest ERA, opponent BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA of all Triple-A starting pitchers from mid-June to mid-September. Woods Richardson's quick turnaround is what the kids like to call “an unprecedented stark contrast in performance.” Woods Richardson finished his 2023 Triple-A campaign with a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .253 opponent BA with 109 hits allowed, 13 home runs allowed, 61 walks, and 96 strikeouts. Though these numbers are overall uninspiring, considering where Woods Richardson was in mid-June, his late-season turnaround is unequivocally impressive. Combining Woods Richardson's immense early struggles with his incredible finish to the season, it is difficult to get a grasp on his potential as a future Major League starting pitcher. Though this is the case, it appears that Woods Richardson is destined to be a productive Major League-caliber starting pitcher, and his Stuff+ at the Triple-A level greatly infers that. Stuff+ is a pitching-specific sabermetric created by Max Bay and Eno Sarris. According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. Woods Richardson threw 1,985 pitches over 24 appearances at the Triple-A level this season, and according to Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report spreadsheet, Woods Richardson finished the 2023 season ranked 10th out of 1239 Triple-A pitchers in Stuff+ with a rating of 116.9. For reference, rookie pitchers who made immediate contributions for their clubs, Bobby Miller (124.9) and Tanner Bibee (120.2), finished ahead of Woods Richardson in 3rd and 8th place, respectively. Woods Richardson also finished ahead of fellow young pitchers who pitched well during their debut 2023 seasons in AJ Smith-Shawvver (113.9) and Gavin Williams (113.6), who finished in 19th and 20th place, respectively. Now, Stuff+ doesn't attempt to predict whether a pitcher will be successful or not, but what it does do is measure how effective or "nasty" their pitches are. Young pitchers who throw nasty pitches, like Miller and Bibee, tend to be successful at the Major League level. What is interesting about Woods Richardson is that his pitches are "nasty" in a different way from the traditionally effective Miller and Bibee. Whereas Miller and Bibee can overpower hitters with overpowering fastballs and complementary offspeed pitches, Woods Richardson tends to outmatch hitters due to his unique release point and pitch movement combination. According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ values the release point of a pitcher. So, some pitchers with unique release points, movement combinations, and, in turn, effective pitch deception tactics score very well despite lower velocities. Woods Richardson has a unique overhead release point. Also, Woods Richardson, a right-handed pitcher, maxes out at 92-93 MPH. Combined, these two Woods Richardson-specific quirks create deception and play into the more obscure elements of pitching that Stuff+ values, making him a prime candidate to be highly valued by Bay and Sarris' Stuff+ model. Interestingly, Sarris' Pitcher Report model projects Woods Richardson to have a lackluster 2024 season as the 629th-best pitcher out of the 4017 qualified pitchers between the Majors and all Minor League levels. To add context, here is how Sarris' model projects Woods Richardson's 2024 campaign to play out: 4.73 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 21% K%, 9.5% BB%, .290 BABIP, 116 Stuff+, 142 strikeouts, 4.6 innings pitched/game, 146 innings pitched Sarris has Woods Richardson projected to finish just behind pending free agent Lucas Giolito (628th place) and ahead of Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez (636th place) in performance during the 2024 season. Woods Richardson's projected statistics are undesirable at the surface level, particularly after how well the Twins starting rotation performed during the 2023 season. However, getting this performance out of a fringe-fifth starter would be ideal. "Fringe-fifth starter" is precisely how I would describe Woods Richardson's impending role with the Twins for the 2024 season, much like his role during the 2023 season. Going into the 2024 season, Woods Richardson is going to have to come into Spring Training prepared after what is hopefully a productive offseason to apply himself and compete with fellow "fringe-fifth starters" in fellow 40-man roster spot occupiers in Louie Varland, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands for a more meaningful role. Woods Richardson has the tools and skill to succeed at the Major League level, as evidenced by his impressive Stuff+ and remarkable last three months of his 2023 Triple-A campaign. Nonetheless, he still needs to prove himself to be a viable Major League pitcher if he wants to be part of the Twins' plans beyond 2024. Do you think Woods Richardson has a future with the Twins? What do you make of Woods Richardson's remarkable three-month stretch to end his 2023 Triple-A season? Comment below. View full article

yeah, that was a rough mess up on my end lol. I fixed it, thanks for letting me know.

The Twins finished 24th overall in the MLB with 86 stolen bases during the 2023 regular season. Though this is an improvement from when they finished last in the MLB with only 38 stolen bases in 2022, their 2023 numbers lagged behind most teams. The Twins are suited to be an effective base-stealing team, and they should increase their stolen base attempts in 2024. Image courtesy of David Kohl - USA TODAY Sports A good person is someone who attempts to live a sound moral life in an entirely corrupt world. That means avoiding the temptation of morally corrupt actions like fraud, violence, lying, and theft and instead doing what is right in the name of actively attempting to be a good person. Though this is a valuable and essential standard of life to pursue, one of these morally corrupt acts has an entirely different meaning when discussing baseball: theft. Also known as "stealing" in the baseball lexicon, attempting to swipe a base is a perfectly reasonable and even encouraged act to engage and dabble with. Unfortunately, the Twins have been one of the more steal-averse teams in baseball since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. To add context, here is where the Twins have ranked in stolen bases as a team each season since 2019: 2019 - 28 (30th in MLB) 2020 - 14 (30th in MLB) 2021 - 54 (25th in MLB) 2022 - 38 (30th in MLB) 2023 - 86 (24th in MLB) Three out of the last five seasons, the Twins have finished in last place in stolen bases in Major League Baseball. The highest the Twins have finished was in 24th place, which is still in the bottom half of the league. Twins utility player Willi Castro led the team with 33 stolen bases (SB), and if it weren't for Castro the Twins would have had 53 stolen bases during the 2023 season, which would have been last in Major League Baseball. Of course, this isn't an appropriate way to view the situation because Castro played for the Twins and had 33 steals, the butterfly effect, etc. Nonetheless, Castro, the manufacturer of 38% of the Twins stolen bases, puts their unwillingness to attempt to steal them into a fascinating light. Castro was incredibly efficient as a base stealer, stealing 33 bases on 38 attempts (87%), and finished 10th in Major League Baseball in total steals. What is interesting about Castro being a highly efficient base stealer is that he possesses an above-average but non-elite 82nd-percentile sprint speed. An 82nd-percentile sprint speed means Castro can cover 28.6 feet/second, but to be considered a player with an elite sprint speed, one needs to be able to cover 30 feet/second. So, Castro could efficiently steal a high volume of bases while being a non-elite base runner sprint speed-wise. Interestingly enough, this is the case with a handful of the nine players who stole more bases than Castro: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) - 73 SB, 67th-percentile sprint speed Esteury Ruiz (Athletics) - 67 SB, 97th-percentile sprint speed Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) - 54 SB, 99th-percentile sprint speed Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 49 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed CJ Abrams (Nationals) - 47 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed Nico Hoerner (Cubs) - 43 SB, 80th-percentile sprint speed Ha-Seong Kim (Padres) - 38 SB, 79th-percentile sprint speed Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) - 37 SB, 96th-percentile sprint speed Elly De La Cruz (Reds) - 35 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed Willi Castro (Twins) - 33 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed Now, while this list is populated with 97th-to-100th-percentile sprint speed base-stealers in Carroll, Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and De La Cruz, there are more players with non-elite sprint speeds in Acuña Jr. (the league leader in steals), Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and Castro. Though these respective players all have differentiating sprint speeds, the one thing they have in common regarding stolen bases is a high number of attempts. Here is how many stolen bases (SB), caught stealing (CS), and overall successful stolen base percentage (rounded) the previously listed players had during the 2023 regular season: Acuña Jr. - (73 SB, 14 CS, 84% sucess rate) Ruiz - (67 SB, 13 CS, 84% success rate) Carroll - (54 SB, 5 CS, 92% success rate) Witt Jr. - (49 SB, 15 CS, 77% sucess rate) Abrams - (47 SB, 4 CS, 92% success rate) Hoerner - (43 SB, 7 CS, 86% success rate) Kim - (38 SB, 9 CS, 81% success rate) Rodriguez - (37 SB, 10 CS, 79% success rate) De La Cruz - (35 SB, 8 CS, 81% success rate) Castro - (33 SB, 5 CS, 87% success rate) Every player listed has at least 40 stolen base attempts and a success rate of over 75%. Having this many players steal such a high number of bases at an over 75% success rate is astonishing, and much of this phenomenon likely has to do with the MLB increasing the size of the bases from 15 square inches to 18 square inches and limiting pitchers to two pick-off attempts per plate appearance. The MLB and its consultants brainstormed and eventually created and implemented these rules to revitalize what was a dying art of stealing bases, and they have accomplished exactly that. Teams like the Cincinnati Reds (190 stolen bases in 2023), Arizona Diamondbacks (166 stolen bases in 2023), and divisional foe Kansas City Royals (163 stolen bases in 2023) have taken full advantage of these rule changes, and the Twins should heavily consider doing the same. Not only did the Red, Diamondbacks, and Royals have three of the best base stealers in the MLB during the 2023 regular season in the previously mentioned De La Cruz, Carroll, and Witt Jr., respectively, but they also had complementary players who similarly stole a high volume of bases. For example, the Reds had TJ Friedl with 27 stolen bases and a 73rd-percentile sprint speed, the Diamondbacks had Jake McCarthy with 26 stolen bases and a 98th-percentile sprint speed, and the Royals had Dairon Blanco with 24 stolen bases and a 100th-percentile sprint speed. To complement Castro and his 33 stolen bases, the Twins had Michael A. Taylor with 13 steals and an 85th-percentile sprint speed. An 85th-percentile sprint speed is in no way lackluster, but the drop off in total number of stolen bases from Friedl, McCarthy, and Blanco to Taylor is significant. To further emphasize how the Twins didn't adequately attempt to steal bases beyond Castro, here are the Twins who finished in third through fifth place leaders in stolen bases with their sprint speed percentiles: 3rd: Byron Buxton - 9 SB, 94th-percentile sprint speed 4th: Royce Lewis - 6 SB, 73rd-percentile sprint speed 5th: Andrew Stevenson - 4 SB, 93rd-percentile sprint speed The point of this exercise isn't to be hypercritical of the Twins and their unwillingness to steal bases at the same rate as other teams with fast players but rather to show that they have players with similar above-average and even elite sprint speeds to teams that steal at a high rate like the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Taylor and Stevenson might not be members of the Twins' 2024 Opening Day 26-man roster, but Castro, Buxton, and Lewis will be. The Twins will also have players who can adequately steal bases in Jorge Polanco (55th-percentile sprint speed), Edouard Julien (41st-percentile sprint speed), Max Kepler (52nd-percentile sprint speed), and potentially speedy utility player Austin Martin. Utility player Nick Gordon (49th-percentile sprint speed) is also a capable base stealer, but whether he will make the Twins' 2024 Opening Day roster is in great question. Castro, Buxton, and potentially Martin are adequate base-stealing options and should be attempting steals at a higher rate. As evidenced by their sprint speeds, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Kepler are not elite base-stealing options, but Acuña Jr. just stole 73 bases with a 67th-percentile sprint speed by masterfully mixing an opportunistic mindset with a high baserunning IQ. It would be a dramatic waste of time to suggest that the Twins begin attempting steal bases at the same rate as the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Instead, the Twins should aspire to become a middle-of-the-pack base-stealing team and steal 100 or more bases, which they have yet to do since stealing 135 bases in 2012. Acuña Jr., Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and current Twins utility player Castro prove that players can be highly effective base stealers despite not having elite sprint speeds. The Twins have capable base stealers, and it would be in their best interest to become a team that attempts to steal more often during the 2024 season. Should the Twins attempt to steal more often in 2024? Who do you think should attempt to steal bases besides Castro? Comment below. View full article