Cody Schoenmann

Louie Varland would be the 5th starter over Odorizzi or Keller, and Pomeranz is a reliever.

Due to self-imposed payroll cuts, the Twins are unlikely to sign a noteworthy free-agent pitcher. Though that has dampened the excitement for this offseason, the front office will sign arms to fortify themselves. Would it make sense for the team to sign one of these three veteran hurlers as depth arms? Image courtesy of Raj Mehta - USA TODAY Sports Since the Twins signed reliever Josh Staumont to a one-year, $950,000 contract on December 27, the Atlanta Braves traded Vaughn Grissom to the Boston Red Sox for Chris Sale; the Seattle Mariners traded Robbie Ray to the San Francisco Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani; 10-foot-tall aliens were "discovered" in Miami, and, since the Twins (or "cheap pohlad") have yet to acquire a starting pitcher, Greggory Masterson has been forced to post 12 different versions of Shotgun Mario on Twitter. The world and (more relevantly) Twins Territory is in shambles, and nothing can cure our collective boredom but a significant transaction. Any worthwhile transaction will suffice, Derek Falvey. Please. Jokes aside, after the significant payroll cuts the Twins are willingly imposing due to uncertainty surrounding their television deal, the second-most plausible reason why the Twins have done essentially nothing is that, as Jim Bowden noted in his most recent piece at The Athletic, "(the Twins) don't really have a lot of needs, thanks to a roster filled with young players and a strong farm system." Bowden continued, "The Twins could use more starting pitching depth and a center fielder to complement Byron Buxton but they have time to fill both needs between now and the start of spring training." Though often misguided in his takes and insight, Bowden makes a valid point here that is important for Twins fans to remember during this moment of torpor: The Twins' 2024 roster is almost entirely set, and there's not much more they need to do. Trading for a frontline starting pitcher like Jesús Luzardo, Logan Gilbert, or Mitch Keller would be the ideal way to address the biggest remaining need, but consummating a trade of that magnitude would require the Twins to part with a significant prospect hau. A pitching market with inflationary price tags could cause them to err on the side of caution. With this being the state the Twins find themselves in, the most likely transactions for them are small ones that fortify their starting rotation and bullpen depth. Examples of such transactions include signing Staumont and A.J. Alexy, and claiming Ryan Jensen off waivers from the Miami Marlins. Although knowing whom the team will sign, trade for, or claim is nearly impossible due to the huge number of easily obtainable replacement-level pitchers, some candidates are more enticing than others. Here are three intriguing pitchers the Twins should consider signing to minor-league deals. Drew Pomeranz Pomeranz, a 35-year-old left-handed reliever, has missed the last two regular seasons due to various forearm and elbow injuries in his throwing arm. Though it would be understandable if, having finished a four-year, $34-million contract he signed with the San Diego Padres in 2020, he elected to ride off into the sunset, it appears the former All-Star has no plans to retire and wants to continue pitching in 2024. Soon-to-be 37-year-old Caleb Thielbar is the top left-handed reliever on the Twins' 26-man roster. Although the Minnesota native will retain that status at the beginning of the 2024 season, the combination of a nagging oblique injury and steady decline in performance in the latter half of last season has led the confidence of those who follow the team to wane. Twenty-six-year-old left-handed reliever Kody Funderburk will play a prominent role in the team's bullpen plans in 2024 as well, but with Brent Headrick being the third left-handed relief pitcher on the organization's depth chart, Pomeranz becomes an attractive option on a minor-league deal. Signing Pomeranz (without tying up a 40-man roster spot or guaranteeing him money that might encroach on spending in other areas) would give the Twins a potential low-cost, high-leverage left-handed relief arm. They could always cut bait with him if injuries keep him unable to perform at the level needed to pitch in MLB. Brad Keller Formerly an Opening Day starter for the Kansas City Royals, Keller is a pitcher Twins fans are exceedingly familiar with. Over the past five seasons, Keller has made 13 starts against the Twins, generating a 3.74 ERA, striking out 70 and walking 35 over 74 2/3 IP and 327 total batters faced. Though Keller used to be an integral part of the Royals rotation, the combination of a sharp decline in performance in 2023 (1.92 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings pitched) and his former team adding talented veterans in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to their starting rotation has left him without a home for 2024. Keller, 28, is a quality veteran depth piece who could get a big-league contract team with a team like the Washington Nationals or Oakland Athletics—who would look to flip him for prospects if he shows signs of success early in the season. Though this is a plausible outcome for Keller during free agency, there is a chance he could elect to sign a minor-league deal with a contender in hopes of being their sixth starter—the first depth option in case of injury or poor performance from one of their starters. If Keller goes this route, it would make sense for the Twins to make the former Royal a priority depth signing. Jake Odorizzi The final pitcher the Twins should consider signing to a minor-league deal is a familiar face. Odorizzi, 33, spent parts of three seasons with the Twins before signing a three-year, $23.5-million contract with the Houston Astros before the 2021 season. Odorizzi, the Twins' Opening Day starting pitcher in 2018, was a fan favorite, and fans would welcome a return to Twins Territory with open arms. Interestingly, Odorizzi would, too, as during a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek, Dan Hayes of The Athletic said that Odorizzi's camp would be interested in a reunion with the franchise. Odorizzi is nearing the end of his MLB career, but still presents value as a sixth or seventh starter who can occasionally be a short-term injury replacement or make a spot start. Due to his extensive injury history and a recent drop-off in performance when healthy, Odorizzi shouldn't be relied on as an integral part of any club's five-pitcher rotation, let alone a team that intends on contending in 2024. Signing Odorizzi to a non-guaranteed contract and having him compete with young starting pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Headrick as one of the team's primary depth starters could make sense for the World Series-hopeful Twins. Though making a trade for a frontline starting pitcher like Luzardo, Gilbert, or Keller is the transaction those who follow the Twins want to occur, the franchise is more likely to fortify their already formidable rotation and bullpen with depth signings on minor-league deals. Do any of these three pitchers intrigue you? Would you welcome a reunion between the Twins and Odorizzi? Join the discussion and comment below. View full article

There is a chance Kody Funderburk will become one of the most heavily used relievers out of the Twins bullpen in 2024. Is that a good idea? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports Heading into the 2024 season, the Twins have four arms appointed as primary late-inning, high-leverage relievers: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar. Behind this quartet of trustworthy hurlers is an amalgam of relatively unknown commodities who fit one of two molds: young, former starters who are now pursuing careers as relievers, or veterans attempting to bounce back from injuries and avoid a bleak conclusion to their once-promising careers. Though the former archetype has fascinating rebound options like Jorge Alcalá and the recently-signed Josh Staumont (both of whom could eventually become integral parts of the team's bullpen), the latter includes young arms who, by developing a sustainably effective pitch mix and approach, could become long-term, cost-controlled bullpen weapons, like Duran and Jax did in seasons past. Pitchers in that group include Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick, Ronny Henriquez, A.J. Alexy, and, most notably, Kody Funderburk. Funderburk, 27, made his debut last season in the middle of a pennant race, against the division-rival Cleveland Guardians. On Aug. 28, Funderburk entered the game in relief of a struggling Kenta Maeda and was able to pitch two scoreless innings, striking out three of six batters faced and generating a 0.66 Win Probability Added at FanGraphs (WPA), which tied Winder for the highest of any pitcher in that game. Though he stumbled in his next appearance, giving up a game-winning home run to Guardians' first baseman Kole Calhoun on August 30, the Dallas Baptist University product bounced back strong, generating a 0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, and zero home runs given up through his next 39 total batters faced to finish his rookie campaign. Funderburk didn't pitch in the postseason, but he firmly established himself as the Twins' second-most trusted left-handed relief pitcher (behind Thielbar) and a fixture in the team's bullpen for the upcoming 2024 season. Interestingly enough, Funderburk's progression coincides with the recent departure of Emilio Pagán, who became a mainstay in the Twins bullpen, throwing a combined 132 1/3 innings over the previous two seasons. Although Pagán's exit has been celebrated by many, replacing a reliever who managed a 2.99 ERA and 1.1 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 69 1/3 innings pitched in 2023 will not be easy. On the surface, Staumont, who was recently signed to a one-year, $950,000 contract, feels like the most plausible candidate to replace Pagán's contract. Yet, after pitching just 57 2/3 innings over the past two seasons and undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome this past July, it would be malpractice for the organization to expect Pagán's prolific production out of the 30-year-old reclamation project. So, who is the most likely candidate to replace Pagán's availability and reliability? Right-handed throwing Alcala could make sense as Pagán's successor, but with similar health concerns as Staumont, the most realistic option appears to be Funderburk. At first glance, the idea of “replacing” Pagán with Funderburk could be seen as incomprehensible, as the left-handed Funderburk is a noticeably different pitcher than the right-handed Pagán. Yet, once one peeks below the surface, they will find that their splits are not too dissimilar. Here are Funderburk's and Pagán's splits versus left-handed and right-handed batters: Versus Left-Handed Batters: Funderburk: 8 games, 4 1/3 innings pitched, 17 batters faced, 3 hits allowed, 1 home run, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts, 0.92 WHIP Pagán: 58 games, 29 1/3 innings pitched, 120 batters faced, 22 hits allowed, 2 home runs, 11 walks, 33 strikeouts, 1.13 WHIP Versus Right-Handed Batters: Funderburk: 11 games, 7 1/3 innings pitched, 30 batters faced, 3 hits allowed, 0 home runs, four walks, 13 strikeouts, 0.95 WHIP Pagán: 63 games, 39 2/3 innings pitched, 153 batters faced, 23 hits allowed, 3 home runs, 10 walks, 32 strikeouts, 0.83 WHIP Admittedly, there is a blatant discrepancy between Funderburk's and Pagán's sample sizes. Still, the former's encouraging numbers against right-handed hitters (most notably his sub-1.00 WHIP over 30 batters faced) lead one to believe that he is more than just a "lefty specialist." Funderburk, who stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 230 pounds, is an overbearing presence on the mound, utilizing a fastball and slider as a one-two punch alongside a deceptive sinker, which he tends to pinpoint on the lower-left side of the strike zone to dominate hitters of both handednesses. The one glaring weakness in Funderburk's game is that he lets up far too many walks, evidenced by his below-average 10.6% walk rate. Funderburk needs to be able to control the zone and add velocity to his fastball, which currently tops out around 93 MPH, if he wants to become a consistent high-leverage reliever for the Twins. If he can make these adjustments, the Twins could have a reliever who could replace Pagán’s production and usurp Thielbar as the team’s most effective left-handed reliever on their hands. Should Funderburk be trusted to take on Pagán's workload in 2024? If not Funderburk, then who? What do you think is Funderburk's ceiling as a reliever? Join the discussion and comment below. 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Will the fifth overall pick sink or swim? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Despite the minor-league signings of Niko Goodrum and AJ Alexy and the one-year, $950,000 acquisition of reliever Josh Staumont, not much excitement has occurred in Twins Territory leading in the New Year. Though we could discuss the impending television deal for the umpteenth time, it feels like a fun time to project what a successful or unsuccessful career would look like for the most exciting prospect in recent Twins history, Walker Jenkins, while comparing him to players of baseball past and present. Here are the criteria for the exercise below: Each player selected as a placeholder for Jenkins' potential percentile outcome must have been a left-hitting outfield prospect selected between picks one and ten of the MLB Draft, from the years 2000 through 2020. Next to the player's name is how many Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) they generated throughout their careers (the majority of player's careers are still ongoing). Now that the stipulations are laid out and, hopefully, understandable, let's jump into the list: "0th" Percentile - Drew Meyer - -0.2 Career fWAR Meyer, who was selected 10th overall by the Texas Rangers in the 2002 MLB Draft, spent three years in the Minors before making his big-league debut during the 2006 season. He hit .214/.214/.214 with three hits, zero home runs, zero walks, a 53.3% strikeout rate, and a 0 wRC+ over 15 plate appearances. After that bitter cup of coffee, Meyer bounced between the Rangers', Houston Astros', and Los Angeles Angels' minor-league systems, but he never made it back to the majors. Instead of being used as an actual player to whom Jenkins can be quantifiably compared, Meyer symbolizes the unfortunate possibility that Jenkins's potential could go entirely to waste. Meyer only played in those five MLB games, and if Jenkins were to do the same, his career would be deemed a colossal failure for the Twins, his agent Scott Boras, and himself. At the very least, Jenkins appears to be a genuine talent who will be an MLB player for an extended period. Yet, the bleak possibility of him having a similar career to Meyer's must be acknowledged. 10th Percentile - JJ Bleday - -0.2 Career fWAR The first player used as a genuine comparison was the fourth overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft. Despite being a prized prospect out of college at Vanderbilt, Bleday has yet to find consistent footing at the highest level. Though the reason for his struggles has yet to be pinned down, many have blamed the combination of a hitch in his swing, his slim frame, and a lack of proper development by the Marlins for his lackluster performance. Though this is unfortunate for Bleday (now a member of the Oakland Athletics), Jenkins doesn't possess a hitch in his swing the same physical limitations. Also, the Twins have earned a reputation as one of the best franchises at developing young hitters, as evidenced by Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner, among other success stories. Bleday could still turn his career around, but he is quickly leaving the realm of reclamation projects and entering "Quad-A" player territory. If Jenkins were to venture down the same path, his career would have been an unsatisfying disappointment. 20th Percentile - Jarred Kelenic - 0.7 Career fWAR Drafted sixth overall by the New York Mets in 2018, Kelenic has yet to find consistent footing in MLB. What separates the Waukesha, Wis. native from Bleday is that he has generated a handful of impressive months at the big-league level, while contributing to the competitive Seattle Mariners. As evidenced by being traded for by the consistently successful Atlanta Braves this past month, Kelenic still holds some appeal. He might yet live up to the lofty expectations placed on the former fourth-ranked prospect in baseball. Regardless, Jenkins, a left-handed hitting high school phenom, finds himself in a situation similar to Kelenic's when the Mets first selected him. Assuming Jenkins won't be part of a blockbuster trade like Kelenic was, Jenkins will be able to find stability with one organization as he develops, which is typically a vital part of maximizing a young player's initial success in the high minors and Major League level. 30th Percentile - David Dahl - 1.8 Career fWAR The Rockies' first-round pick back in 2012 provides a fascinating look into what qualifies as a successful career. After making his debut in 2016 at 22, the young outfielder posted three straight seasons with a wRC+ above 110, and even made the National League All-Star team in 2019. Then, Dahl fell off a cliff, posting a negative Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (bWAR) in 2020 and 2021 with the Rockies and Rangers, respectively. After taking a year off in 2022, Dahl returned to MLB, playing four games for the San Diego Padres in 2023, generating one hit (a home run) over nine plate appearances before getting designated for assignment and electing free agency in June. The exact reason for the oft-injured Dahl's fall from grace is unknown. Yet, there is a direct correlation between his immense drop in production and a gruesome ankle injury he suffered in early August, 2019. Though Dahl's MLB career has likely come to a disheartening end, he symbolizes the idea of a young outfield prospect whose promising career was carried off course by injuries. Jenkins suffered relatively minor injuries in high school, including undergoing surgery for a hip impingement his freshman year and having to nurse a broken hamate bone his senior year before getting selected fifth overall by the Twins this summer. Nobody wants to think about injuries, especially when it comes to a top-five pick whose potential seems limitless. Yet, it is an unfortunately realistic outcome that must be considered when overturning every potential stone to assess a player's potential career outcomes. 40th Percentile - Austin Meadows - 5.8 Career fWAR Part of the infamous trade in which Pittsburgh sent Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, and himself to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer, Meadows quickly became one of the most promising young stars in Major League Baseball. In 2019, he posted a 144 OPS+ and finished 14th in American League Most Valuable Player voting. Unfortunately, like Dahl, professional baseball has not been kind to him since. Since his 4.5 fWAR 2019 season, Meadows has played in only 220 games, and his future in baseball has become a pressing question, as he was non-tendered by his most recent team, the Detroit Tigers, and has undergone significant physical and mental health challenges the last handful of seasons. Interestingly, Jenkins, a bulkier outfielder with a unique mix of speed and power, is often compared to Meadows by fans and pundits. If Jenkins can become the 2019 version of Meadows for a consistent period, the Twins will enjoy the services of one of the best young outfielders in the sport. 50th Percentile - Andrew Benintendi - 12.9 Career fWAR Selected seventh overall by the Boston Red Sox out of the University of Arkansas, Benintendi instantly became one of the highest-ranked prospects in Major League Baseball. Once dubbed a "once-in-a-decade hitter," Benintendi has combined exceptional hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition to produce above-average seasons with the Red Sox in 2018 and the Kansas City Royals/New York Yankees in 2021. Unfortunately (well, fortunately for the Twins), Benintendi was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023, mixing an uninspiring .652 OPS and -11 Outs Above Average (OAA) in left field to become a 0 fWAR player in the first year of his five-year, $75-million contract with the Chicago White Sox. Jenkins has the same elite hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition skills as Benintendi, but much more raw power that projects to translate well into in-game power and a more well-rounded defensive profile. He could stay in center field, instead of being one of the worst fielders at what is arguably the position lowest on the defensive spectrum. Despite shaky and inconsistent play throughout his career, Benintendi has plenty of tools that translate well to MLB. If Jenkins can mimic Benintendi in some aspects while excelling in others, the Twins will have a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate on their hands. 60th Percentile - Michael Conforto - 20.5 Career fWAR We have now reached the "positive outcome" section, and the first player who represents a positive was the 10th overall selection in the 2014 MLB Draft, by the Mets. After putting together a stretch of generating between 3.5-4.9 fWAR from 2017 through 2019, Conforto's performance has dipped, and he has yet to be the same player since. He missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier that season, before signing a two-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants this past January. Conforto isn't the player he once was. However, his above-average three-year peak and the fact that he is still a starting-caliber player entering his ninth season are, at the bare minimum, respectable outcomes for even a top-10 pick. Though Jenkins having the same career trajectory as Conforto would be viewed as a loss for those who follow the Twins, selecting a nine-year starter with the fifth pick in the draft would undoubtedly be a win from a resource allocation standpoint. 70th Percentile - Alex Gordon - 32 Career fWAR Gordon, the second overall pick in 2002, is another fascinating case of how success is defined. After posting only one season with a wRC+ above 100 in his first four seasons at the highest level, Gordon became one of the best players in baseball in 2011, producing a 140 wRC+ over 151 games played. After his incredible season, Gordon and the Royals went on one of the best runs in recent MLB history by going to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015. During this stretch, Gordon produced a wRC+ above 120 in 2012, 2014, and 2015, while being a key cog in the Royals lineup and a defensive stalwart in left field. Unfortunately, Gordon returned to Earth and produced five consecutive seasons with a wRC+ below 100 from 2016 through 2020. Should a player who spent the majority of his career performing at a below-average rate be defined as a success story? In Gordon's case, the answer is undoubtedly yes, as the five-season peak he produced is greater than what the majority of players manage in their careers. He was an anchor of back-to-back World Series teams. If Jenkins has a career similar to that of Gordon, he would still have to be part of a terrific run of successful Twins teams to achieve the same recognition and goodwill. Jenkins projects to be a more consistently productive player, but whether he can reach the same heights as Gordon at the pinnacle of his success is yet to be seen. 80th Percentile - Nick Markakis - 28.7 Career fWAR Selected seventh overall in the 2003 Draft by the Baltimore Orioles, Markakis manufactured one of the most understated, respectable 15-year-long careers in baseball history. Playing for the Orioles and Braves, Markakis hit .288/.357/.423, with 2,388 hits and 189 home runs over 9,321 plate appearances and 2,154 games played. Markakis posted 11 seasons with an OPS+ over 100, but he netted only one All-Star nod (in 2019), despite posting a 7.4 bWAR season with the Orioles in 2008. Regardless, Markakis is one of the least talked-about success stories in recent MLB history. Though Jenkins projects to have a career with more extraordinary peaks, if he were able to produce 15 quality seasons where he never played fewer than 104 games, he would undoubtedly become one of the best outfielders in Twins, history alongside players like Torii Hunter, Bob Allison, Tony Oliva, and Kirby Puckett. 90th Percentile - Kyle Tucker - 16.3 Career fWAR Tucker is ahead of Markakis on this list, as he is one of the best young players in Major League Baseball right now. A newfound perennial MVP candidate, he has generated an fWAR above 4.7 in each of the past three seasons, while being a mainstay at the top of the always championship-caliber Astros lineup. If it weren't for the player below, Tucker and his production over the past three seasons could be the 100th-percentile outcome for Jenkins and the Twins using the abovementioned criteria. Tucker's smooth left-handed swing controls the zone like few others in the league, while possessing the ability to hit 30 home runs or more each year. If Tucker, 26, can produce at his current rate for the next six or so seasons, he will be considered one of the best players of the 2020s. If Jenkins can replicate Tucker's early-career success, the Twins could have one of the most formidable young outfielders in the game in the not-too-distant future. 100th Percentile - Bryce Harper - 47.5 Career fWAR Finally, the "100th-Percentile" outcome is none other than "Baseball's Chosen One." Selected first overall in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, Harper has been one of the best players in Major League Baseball over the past decade. Whether it be winning Rookie of the Year in 2012, winning the Most Valuable Player Award for two different franchises, or posting what is arguably the greatest single-season offensive performance of the last decade in 2015, Harper has lived up to his phenom status in every way imaginable. He's yet to post a season with an OPS+ below 110. Although the Philadelphia Phillies recently announced the plan to transition Harper, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022, from the outfield to become their full-time first baseman, he was one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball for an extended stretch. If Jenkins can come close to mimicking Harper's production throughout his career, he will become a surefire Hall-of-Famer and debatably the best outfielder in Twins history. What is a successful career for Jenkins? Which player on this list do you think Jenkins will end up most like? Could he end up as good as Harper? Join the discussion and comment below. View full article

Since the end of the 2021 season, the Twins have traded for two Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers. One trade worked out incredibly well, and the other, well, didn't. Could the Twins partner with the Reds on yet another trade for a starter? Image courtesy of Katie Stratman - USA TODAY Sports The Major League Baseball trade market is like a well. Parched front offices visit that well, hoping to find a player to quench their thirst and strengthen their team for a reasonable cost. Recently, the Cincinnati Reds have been a one-team well the Twins front office has often visited for starting pitching help. The first time Derek Falvey and company visited in need of a starting pitcher, they traded first-round pick Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray. The Petty-for-Gray trade went swimmingly for both sides, as the Twins got two above-average years from Gray, and the Reds got a borderline top-100 prospect who could join the Reds rotation as early as 2025. Then, on August 2, 2022, the well made the Twins sick. They traded three top prospects (Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar) for starting pitcher Tyler Mahle. Over the next season and change, Mahle made just nine starts for the Twins, before undergoing Tommy John surgery and signing a two-year, $22-million deal with the Texas Rangers last week. The Twins got essentially nothing, while the Reds got two starting-level position players in Steer and Encarnacion-Strand, and traded Hajjar to the Cleveland Guardians for starting outfielder Will Benson. Though the lousiness of this trade is often hyperbolized, as the process behind executing the trade was sound, the end result was undeniably a loss for the organization's decision-makers. If the last time a team was thirsty and went to a well, the water made them sick, should they return to that specific well, expecting it to be safe? What if the well was safe the first time, then, unbeknownst to them, became contaminated between visits? Interestingly, there is an enticing Reds starting pitcher who could force the Twins to reflect on these philosophical questions if he were to become available through trade. Graham Ashcraft - Cincinnati Reds - 145 2/3 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR Deemed a young pitcher who has yet to perform to their potential, Ashcraft is an exciting trade candidate who possesses the exact pitching repertoire the Twins' front office values: a potentially elite slider mixed with a cutter that the team's coaching staff could help Ashcraft change into a more traditional four-seam fastball. As evidenced by his 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 5.06 FIP, Ashcraft floundered during his 2023 campaign. Though his struggles are undeniable, much of his lackluster numbers are a mix of poor luck and below-average results. In 2023, Ashcraft excelled in specific skill-based metrics such as Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), Stuff+, and Pitching+. In 2023, Ashcraft was the epitome of a two-pitch pitcher. He relied heavily on his aforementioned cutter and slider, throwing them 90.3 percent of the time. If one of his two primary pitches weren't working, outings would tend to blow up in Ashcraft's face, which contributed to his inflated face-value pitching statistics. Ashcraft's reliance on two pitches in 2023 was peculiar, considering he utilized a sinker and changeup during the 2022 season. Ashcraft's cutter and slider are effective and have the potential to be exceptional, but if he ever wants to become a consistently above-average rotation arm, he must add a third pitch, at a minimum. The former sixth-round pick could utilize his sinker to complement his cutter more to become an "east-to-west" pitcher who attacks the edges of the zone. Though this proposition is enticing, Ashcraft would seemingly benefit most from incorporating his changeup as a functional companion to his cutter and slider. Despite having highly effective pitches, evidenced by his 128 Stuff+ in 2023, Ashcraft struggled to strike batters out and generated a mere 17.8% K%. Walks weren't Ashcraft's issue, as he manufactured a modest BB% of 8.3%. Hence, his inability to strike batters out was likely due to an ineffective punch-out pitch, further pushing the narrative that he needs to expand his pitch mix and add a third offspeed pitch as a final touch. Ashcraft recently underwent surgery to repair a stress reaction in his right big toe, but should be ready by spring training. Ashcraft isn't a free agent until the end of the 2028 season and would require the Twins to surrender a significant package--one that could include Griffin Jax and an MLB-ready corner outfielder with upside, like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. Though the Reds, like the Twins, need a frontline starting pitcher, the middle of their rotation is clogged with young, high-upside starting pitchers Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Ashcraft. The four young starting pitchers combine with ace Hunter Greene and veteran Nick Martinez to form a respectable prospective 2024 rotation. Yet, if they elect to sign or trade for another frontline starting pitcher like Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, or Shane Bieber, one of the four young starters could become available through trade. Then, the Twins could jump in and attempt to capitalize off the Reds' situation, while parting with a palatable package. Suppose Ashcraft can stay healthy in 2024, while fine-tuning his changeup into a consistently usable complementary pitch to his cutter and slider. In that case, he has the skill and raw stuff to become a frontline starting pitcher. Should the Twins trade for Ashcraft if he becomes available? Would it be wise to invest in a young pitcher with untapped upside? Join the conversation and comment below. View full article

As the New Year approaches, the Twins front office remains adrift in the offseason doldrums, and fans are getting antsy. Could trade winds blow in a pitcher from Baltimore to get things moving? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan - USA TODAY Sports In his novel Slaughterhouse-Five, author Kurt Vonnegut depicts an interaction between the protagonist of the novel, Billy Pilgrim, and a Tralfamadorian. That's the alien species who abduct Billy, put him on display in a zoo-like dome on their planet, and teach him their philosophy on life. During the interaction, the Tralfmadorians deliver Billy an enlightening truth about the universe and life. The conversation goes Though this passage addresses more introspective and existential trains of thought, it feels fitting to describe the present state of the offseason. Here we are, Twins fans: bugs trapped in amber. Though the organization presently finds itself in this state, the Twins will likely execute a significant trade or free-agent signing before the start of spring training. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and the front office purposely idle and let the free-agent and trade markets play out, until they feel that making a move is the correct course of action. Remember, two of the most significant transactions in franchise history (the long-term signing of Carlos Correa and the Luis Arraez-for-Pablo López swap) didn't occur until mid-January. As we sit here in mid-December, the team's priority is to replace the recently departed American League Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, who generated a combined 6.4 Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (bWAR). Chris Paddack looks to be the one-for-one replacement for Maeda in the starting rotation, and while replacing Gray will be a much more strenuous endeavor, names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Jesús Luzardo, and Logan Gilbert have been thrown around by many as potential replacement plans. Acquiring one of those guys would generate major buzz in Twins Territory, but the organization's likelihood of pulling off a trade that noteworthy again seems thin. Could it make sense, instead, for the front office to acquire a back-of-the-rotation starter who would effectively move Louie Varland to the "sixth starter" role and start the season at Triple-A St. Paul, similar to what Bailey Ober did in 2023, or let him join the bullpen in the place of newly-minted Reds reliever Emilio Pagán? If so, many arms are available who could be acquired for a package that would be palatable. Of those options, this steady, cost-controlled Baltimore Orioles right-handed starting pitcher could make sense. Dean Kremer - Baltimore Orioles - 172 2/3 innings, 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR Kremer, 27, is the epitome of a consistent middle-to-back of the rotation starting pitcher who can put together a string of highly effective starts, similar to the campaign Varland put together last season. The difference between the two is that Kremer has been able to perform at this rate over 53 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, while Varland only strung together five above-average starts before being sent down to Triple-A St. Paul and returning later in the season as a reliever. Also, Varland had a severe home-run issue as a starter, evidenced by the 20.6% HR/FB he yielded over the 56 innings pitched as a starter for the Twins last season. For reference, Kremer generated a 13.9% HR/FB over 172 2/3 innings he pitched for the 101-win Orioles. Also, Kremer performed better than Varland in specific park-adjusted metrics such as: (*100 is average, and lower is better) ERA- Varland - 110 Kremer - 98 FIP- Varland - 119 Kremer - 107 According to Baseball Savant's "Park Factors Leaderboard," Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the eighth-most hitter-friendly park in Major League Baseball, compared to Target Field, the 18th most hitter-friendly park. Kremer made 18 of his 32 starts (56%) of his starts in Baltimore, while Varland made four of his 10 (40%) at home in Minnesota; his other six starts came at ballparks that are considered more pitcher-friendly. To be specific, here are the other six stadiums at which Varland made starts, with their respective "Park Factors Leaderboard" ranking: Yankee Stadium (22nd) Guaranteed Rate Field (14th) Angel Stadium (13th) Minute Maid Park (17th) Tropicana Field (28th) Rogers Centre (15th) None of these parks are more hitter-friendly than Camden Yards, and only two of the six tilt toward being hitter-friendly. Even those parks are right around average. Nevertheless, Kremer pitched in a much less pitcher-friendly environment than Varland and could thrive if half his starts were at Target Field. I don't mean to bash Varland, but the idea of him being the Twins' fifth starter going into 2024 makes me uneasy. If the Twins front office elects not to shell out prospects for a frontline starter and to pursue a lower-tier option instead, then Kremer should be a top target. Kremer could slot in as the team's fourth starter behind Joe Ryan and Ober, rounding out a respectable back end of the rotation with Paddack. As illustrated in the video above, Kremer is a unique pitcher who utilizes entirely different pitches, depending on the handedness of the batter. The former 14th-round-pick is an "east-to-west" pitcher, using a fastball-cutter-sinker mix 90% of the time when facing same-handed hitters. Against lefties, though, he becomes a pitcher who leans on his changeup as a complement to his four-seam fastball. That's a fascinating and seemingly effective strategy, but it would be interesting to see if the Twins would encourage Kremer to lean on a more consistent approach that emphasizes his strengths. He and the team's coaching staff could thus fine-tune his pitch mix as the season develops and batters make adjustments to him. Kremer isn't a free agent until the end of the 2027 season, and that club control would compel the Twins to surrender something substantial for him. The Twins would probably need to send a package of David Festa (a near-MLB-ready arm) and José Miranda to the Orioles to acquire a cheap, controllable hurler like Kremer. Nevertheless, the Twins will acquire a starting pitcher this offseason. Though it would be ideal if the organization traded for an analog of Gray like Burnes, Bieber, Luzardo, or Gilbert, their budget and farm system might make that impossible. Is Kremer an attractive target? Would you trade Festa and Miranda for his services? Join the discussion and comment below. View full article

In a shocking turn of events, the baseball world discovered that Shohei Ohtani will make only $2 million per season during his 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Read about that and more in today's Twins Daily Table Setter. Image courtesy of Yukihito Taguchi - USA TODAY Sports Obviously, the biggest news of the day was that Shohei Ohtani will defer $68 million of his $70-million annual salary in each year of his 10-year, $700-million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. That could allow the team to keep spending, and potentially sign or trade for a frontline starting pitcher like Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, or, most notably, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani's deferrals make the word "unprecedented" seem insufficient. Reportedly, the generational talent proposed the unique structure of the deal, as his off-the-field earnings are significant enough for him to maintain a lavish lifestyle. There are many intricacies within Ohtani's deal, and I highly recommend reading Fabian Ardaya's piece at The Athletic to understand how the deal came to be and its effects on the Dodgers and Major League Baseball. Other important, non-Ohtani contract tidbits and information around the league were shared on Monday, and the kind people at Twins Daily are here to help keep you engaged and informed fans of all things Major League Baseball. Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night Upon the news of Ohtani's official departure from the organization, the ever-persistent and often misguided Los Angeles Angels are swimming in deep waters. On Monday night, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Angels are in the trade market for Corbin Burnes, Glasnow, and Bieber. If the organization is unable to acquire one of the three pitchers listed above, it is believed they will shift to the second-tier free-agent starters market, with Marcus Stroman being brought up as a potential target. Though the Angels are probably better off undergoing an organizational reset in this post-Ohtani world, they are steadfast in attempting to compete in 2024. Will that come back to haunt them? Only time will tell, but as the popular maxim states, past performance is the best indicator of future performance. Yamamoto Meets With Big Market Teams After New York Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto and his family in his home country, the former NPB star met with the San Francisco Giants on Sunday, the New York Yankees on Monday and is expected to meet with the Dodgers this upcoming Friday, in what has become a melee for baseball's top remaining free agent. As reported last week, Yamamoto's total contract is expected to surpass $300 million. Will the Dodgers spend $1 billion in total value in one offseason? Will one of the New York teams give Yamamoto an offer he can't refuse, out of desperation? Will franchises who need to make a splash, like the Giants or Toronto Blue Jays, hand Yamamoto and his representatives a blank check? The thrilling conclusion to Yamamoto's decision must come by January 4, 2024, the final day of the prized free agent's 45-day posting window. St. Louis Cardinals Discussing Extension With Former NL MVP On Monday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals are planning on approaching first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to discuss a contract extension. Goldschmidt, 36, is slated to make $26.5 million in the final year of an extension he signed with the Cardinals in 2019. Considering Goldschmidt's age and the Cardinals' struggles last season, the news of this development is surprising, from an outside perspective. Yet, considering the Cardinals' intentions to compete in 2024 and the former MVP expressing a strong desire to stay in "The Lou" in the past, the two sides coming to an agreement later this offseason feels inevitable. Kansas City Royals Remain Active in Pitching Market One of the more surprising developments during the first wave of free agency has been how aggressive the Royals have been in the pitching market. On Sunday, the team agreed on a one-year, $5-million contract with left-handed relief pitcher Will Smith. Following the unexpected signing of Smith on Monday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Royals have had discussions with starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty. The Royals have also been linked to free-agent starters Stroman, Giolito, and Seth Lugo. Earlier this offseason, Royals General Manager J.J. Piccolo stated that he hopes to bolster the team's starting rotation, and news of their interest in the five starters noted earlier further pushes that narrative. What is the driving force behind the Royals' desire to acquire this level of help? While it is unlikely the Royals will be serious contenders to win the American League Central or earn a Wild Card spot, it would make sense for the organization to want to improve what was the fourth-worst rotation in baseball in 2023, according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs. Miscellaneous Twins Notes Pitcher Louie Varland celebrated his 26th birthday on Monday. Joe Mauer is currently on track to become a first-ballot Hall of Fame entry, with 76.8% of the vote. (No, we are not afraid to keep a daily count. Yes, dear BBWAA voter reading this, we are watching you.) Read Theodore Tollefson's incredible piece on Wichita Wind Surge's head groundskeeper, Ben Hartman. Fun Fact: Willi Castro (projected $3.8 million salary) will make more money playing baseball in 2024 than Ohtani. Happy Tuesday, everyone. Let's talk baseball! Join the conversation and comment below. View full article

The Brewers have a surplus of young, cost-controlled outfielders, any of whom could immediately slot in as a high-level insurance policy for the oft-injured Byron Buxton. Should the Twins look to "the good land" for a cheap successor to Michael A. Taylor? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Michael A. Taylor, the Twins' primary center fielder during the 2023 regular season, has unexpectedly become one of the most talked-about names during the first wave of Major League Baseball free agency. Having already been linked to the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, and Los Angeles Dodgers, Taylor figures to sign soon, and the chances that it's a return engagement in Minnesota feel remote. Taylor, 32, hit .220/.278/.442 with 21 home runs and 14 doubles in 2023, generating a 96 wRC+ and 1.7 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 388 plate appearances. He mixed his roughly average offensive numbers with impressive defense, evidenced by 9 Outs Above Average (OAA) and elite arm strength, to become an above-average role player. Internal candidates to replace Taylor's production in center are Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, DaShawn Keirsey, and Austin Martin. Though Castro and Gordon will likely occupy 26-man roster spots in 2024, they are better utilized as nomadic utility players, used flexibly at multiple positions instead of being penciled in at the same position game-in and game-out. Keirsey and (most notably) Martin are young, talented prospects who garner optimism yet are unlikely to be handed significant roles on an American League Central title-seeking team out of spring training. Martin, the Twins' seventh-ranked prospect, could make the Twins' Opening Day roster, but his skill set would be best utilized as a utility player, especially if the team trades from its infield depth to shore up the pitching staff. If he hits well and shows the necessary defensive tools to occupy center, then transitioning him to a full-time role could make sense. Until then, planning for Martin to be that player is merely wishful thinking, and not yet an appropriate course of action for a franchise attempting to make the playoffs for the second straight season. Free-agent options Kevin Kiermaier, and Harrison Bader are enticing succession options for Taylor. The Twins were said to have expressed interest in Kiermaier, whose impending contract is expected to be within the organization's budget, in early November. Bader, who has struggled the past two seasons, is an intriguing low-risk, high-reward target. Yet, like with Keirsey and Martin, opting for a steadier successor would be in the organization's best interest. So, what is the best course of action the front office could take? Signing Kiermaier to a one- or two-year deal feels like the wisest choice, but if he elects to sign elsewhere, the front office should search the trade market. Upon first glance at the trade market, one will find that Jake Meyers (Houston Astros), Johan Rojas (Philadelphia Phillies), Leody Taveras (Texas Rangers), and Jack Suwinski (Pittsburgh Pirates) are attractive options who might not require hard-to-swallow packages to acquire. Although the four players listed are alluring trade candidates, their respective teams could easily elect not to trade them. Each provides valuable depth, while being affordable and possessing starting potential. Though the state these four franchises find themselves in makes it less likely they will part ways with young and inexpensive center-field talent, what if there was an organization that had a surplus of cost-effective young outfielders and an adequate amount of organizational depth to soften the blow of losing a young, starting-caliber outfielder? Enter the Milwaukee Brewers. The 414's professional baseball club finds itself in a unique predicament. On Dec. 4, the club officially announced they had extended 19-year-old prized prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year, $82-million contract, effectively cementing him as the team's starting center fielder and a franchise cornerstone. Not only is Chourio's extension a beacon for the Brewers organization, their fans, and Major League Baseball as a whole, but it also provides General Manager Matt Arnold the unique opportunity to ship off one or more of the team's other young outfielders (Garrett Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor, Joey Wiemer, or Sal Frelick) in exchange for an infielder who could immediately contribute to the big-league club. Coincidentally, the Twins have a surplus of infielders who would slot in as day-one starters for the Crew, in Jorge Polanco, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, Jose Miranda, and potentially Brooks Lee. The only infield position at which the Brewers have a clearly satisfactory option for 2024 is shortstop, with Willy Adames. The club's projected first, second, and third basemen are Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, and Andruw Monasterio, respectively. During the 2023 season, the three players generated a combined 0.1 fWAR over 1,035 total plate appearances. To contextualize their struggles, consider that Farmer, whom many perceived as having a down year in 2023, generated 1.6 fWAR over 369 plate appearances. So, what would an ideal trade look like? Well, there are different tiers of trades, depending on how significant of a contributor each team wants to acquire. Tier III Trade Brewers receive: Farmer - .256/.317/.408, 369 plate appearances, 11 home runs, 101 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR Twins receive: Taylor - .234/.267/.446, 243 plate appearances, 10 home runs, 88 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR The first hypothetical trade scenario is a veteran one-for-one swap. The 33-year-old Farmer, with his $6.6 million projected 2024 salary, is the member of the Twins' crowded infield assortment most likely to be traded this offseason, even with recent news of the team receiving increased trade interest in Polanco. Trading Farmer for Taylor would be a relatively simple swap for both franchises, and each player could seamlessly insert themselves into better-defined roles for their new club. Farmer could become the full-time second or third baseman if Turang or Monasterio struggle, or be utilized as an all-encompassing infield utility, as he did for the Twins in 2023. Taylor, who is under team control for three more seasons, could replace Taylor as Buxton's insurance policy, as he has logged 709 innings at the position over the past two seasons. A Farmer-for-Taylor swap would be a low-risk, moderate-reward swap that would benefit both franchises. Tier II Trade Brewers receive: Polanco - .255/.355/.454, 343 plate appearances, 14 home runs, 118 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR Twins receive: Mitchell - .246/.315/.446, 73 plate appearances, three home runs, 103 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR This move involves the longest-tenured active Twin and a former Brewers first-round pick. As noted earlier, the Brewers intend to compete in 2024, so going out on a limb and sending Mitchell to Minnesota for an All-Star-caliber, switch-hitting top-of-the-lineup cog could make sense as a "win-now" proposition. Although parting with Polanco would be a blow to the Twins' culture and their fan base, netting a young, talented, cost-effective player like Mitchell under control through the end of the 2028 season would be a coup for the Twins. Along with Polanco, the Twins would likely have to part ways with a young pitcher with upside, like Cole Sands, Josh Winder, or Simeon Woods Richardson, to balance the deal, but parting with one of these young arms is a sacrifice most would be willing to make. The speedy Mitchell would slot in as a long-term platoon partner and replacement for Buxton, depending on Buxton's health. Polanco would instantly become the Brewers' best offensive infielder and, barring injuries, could be a driving force toward their second consecutive National League Central title. Tier I Trade Brewers receive: Julien - .263/.381/.459, 408 plate appearances, 16 home runs, 136 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR Twins receive: Frelick - .246/.341/.351, 223 plate appearances, three home runs, 92 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Admittedly, this would be brutal to come to terms with, as Julien is one of my favorite current Twins. Regardless, a Julien-for-Frelick swap could significantly benefit both franchises from a short- and a long-term perspective. To begin, both players, who were rookies in 2023, are young, cost-effective, potentially star-caliber players who are under team control through 2029. Julien, who improved defensively toward the end of last season, could become an above-average, potentially elite offensive second base/first base/designated hitter in the Brewers' presently unintimidating lineup. Frelick, on the other hand, could slot in as an elite defender and high-OBP center fielder who, like Mitchell, could eventually become the Twins' long-term answer there. Julien and Frelick are two young players on the precipice of breaking out during their first full seasons at the major-league level. Though the Twins and Brewers are exhilarated by Julien and Frelick, respectively, if they were to exchange them, both franchises could benefit from each player's high upside at positions of greater need. Moves like these sometimes make baseball executives (a conservative bunch, by nature) too nervous. The Brewers might prefer to stick with their young options around the horn, and the Twins might stay hopeful on Buxton's defensive future and let their utility men stop any gaps. Nevertheless, these neighbors have inverse team needs and are in a unique situation, where each organization could benefit from the other's surplus. Should the Twins and Brewers execute an infielder-for-outfielder swap? Which hypothetical trade interests you the most? Join the conversation and comment below. View full article

Let's start the day strong with the latest intel from Day Two of the 2023 MLB Winter Meetings, held inside the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in Nashville, Tennessee. Image courtesy of Brett Davis - USA TODAY Sports Day Two of the 2023 MLB Winter Meetings has passed, and it's fair to say the hot stove is on FIRE! Arson Judge--Wait, no, sorry, I was reciting the script from 2022; my apologies. Day Two of the 2023 MLB Winter Meetings has come and gone, and the hot stove is, well, freezing. Though the sport is at a standstill as the biggest domino (Shohei Ohtani) has yet to fall, news has slowly trickled out of baseball's biggest offseason event. Let's take a look at a few things that are going on. Twins Interested in a St. Louis Cardinals Outfielder? The St. Louis Cardinals, who recently signed AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray, have a surplus of MLB-caliber outfield talent. The group includes Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Jordan Walker, and Dylan Carlson. Although depth like that is an excellent problem for the organization to have, Katie Woo of The Athletic is reporting that the Cardinals' plan is to use Nootbaar in left field, Edman in center, and Walker in right, with Carlson being the fourth outfielder for the upcoming season. In this scenario, the odd man out would be the 28-year-old O'Neill. During the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline, the Twins were reportedly interested in trading for the right-handed-hitting O'Neill. Could that interest still be there? When we asked John Bonnes's Magic 8 Ball, it responded, "Signs point to Yes." Central Division Teams Make Significant Coaching Decisions News broke around midday Monday that the Detroit Tigers and manager AJ Hinch have agreed to a "long-term" extension. Though the term and average annual value of Hinch's contract are unknown, those who follow the Twins should get used to seeing Hinch's face for years to come. The Tigers are on the rise, and though long stretches of ineffectiveness early in each of the last two seasons have torpedoed their hopes quickly, the up-and-coming Hinch-led team could pose the greatest threat to the Twins' AL Central supremacy as soon as this season. Shifting attention to the NL Central, it was announced that former Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has agreed to join the team in an unspecified coaching role. It is safe to assume he will be tasked with coaching the Cardinals' catchers, notably Willson Contreras, in some capacity, but his role beyond that is unknown. The team wanted Molina as their bench coach for next year, earlier in the offseason, but he turned that opportunity down. The Cardinals' intention with Molina could be for the St. Louis legend to be a potential successor to current manager Oli Marmol if things don't work out again in 2024, but to suggest that is pure speculation. Nonetheless, monitoring Molina's future role with the Cardinals will be interesting. KBO Postings and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's Market Outfielder Jung Hoo Lee and closer Woo Suk Go were officially posted by their respective KBO teams on Monday. Though the Twins will likely show no interest in Go, a closer, the organization may express interest in the 25-year-old former KBO MVP outfielder Lee. Lee, who is a natural center fielder, has already drawn interest from teams who are willing to spend, like the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres, so if a bidding war for his services arises, the cost-cutting Twins will likely end up a mere afterthought. With players coming over from foreign leagues, though, markets sometimes fail to materialize to the expected extent, so keep an eye on this. Speaking of cost-cutting, the dream of the Twins landing the NPB icon Yamamoto can officially be laid to rest. At the beginning of the offseason, Yamamoto, 25, was expected to sign a seven- or eight-year deal worth roughly $200 million. Those expectations, according to Bowden, have since been blown out of the water, as Yamamoto appears poised to become the first starting pitcher to sign a deal worth $300 million in total value since Gerrit Cole signed a nine-year, $324-million pact with the New York Yankees after the 2019 season. Noteworthy teams interested in signing Yamamoto include the Yankees, Mets, Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, and Chicago Cubs. Unsurprisingly, Yamamoto will likely end up with one of six big-market teams. Which one will it be? The answer might come down to which is willing to open their pocketbook the most. Twins Minor League Notes: Andrew Bechtold, a two-way player who spent his 2023 season in the Twins minor-league system, signed a MiLB deal with the Blue Jays as a pitcher. Twins minor leaguer Regi Grace was named the team's Minor League Players Union Representative for the coming year. The growth and development of the union for minor leaguers continues apace. Should the Twins trade for O'Neill? Was it wise of the Tigers to extend Hinch? What do you think Molina's role will be with the Cardinals? Will Yamamoto sign for $300 million? The table is set. Comment below. View full article

Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has been a hot topic over the last week, at the national level. Are the Twins making a mistake by expressing what appears to be unwavering faith in an unknown commodity? Or will proceeding with Paddack prove to be a shrewd decision by the front office? Let's take a look. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports Between Royce Lewis's breakout postseason performance, Pablo López putting on one of the best postseason pitching performances in franchise history, and the cathartic ending of the Twins' 18-game playoff losing streak, there was a more understated (yet noteworthy) optimism-inducing occurrence late in 2023: The dominance of starter-turned-temporary-reliever Chris Paddack. For much of the 2023 season, Paddack existed more as an idea than as a pitcher who could make an impact on one of the best pitching staffs in Major League Baseball. "Will he be able to come back and pitch toward the end of the season?" fans wondered, as reporters provided occasional insight into how Paddack was progressing post-Tommy John surgery. Eventually, it was announced that Paddack would return from the 60-day injured list on September 24, right before the Twins started a series against the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Paddack was in line to make his debut against the Angels the same day, but a rain delay aborted what was supposed to be his grand return from a 16-month absence. Instead, Paddack returned against the Oakland Athletics on September 26, the same team he faced when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in 2022. He worked two innings, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up three earned runs, on four hits and one walk. Paddack struggled in his first appearance of 2023, but immediately bounced back against the Colorado Rockies on September 30, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up zero earned runs over two frames. Paddack's four innings pitched at the major-league level and the 14 innings he threw in the minors convinced the Twins' decision-makers that he would be a worthwhile addition to the 26-man Wild Card Series roster against the Toronto Blue Jays. Paddack didn't pitch against the Blue Jays in the first round, but he made his Twins postseason debut against the Houston Astros in the ALDS. In the two games he threw against the Astros, Paddack generated an incredible 0.27 WHIP and 14.7 K/9, striking out six of the 12 Astros batters he faced. He surrendered only one hit over 3 2/3 innings pitched. Though Paddack wasn't the only Twins reliever who excelled during the postseason, the long and tedious road he traveled to get there is what made his commanding performance truly special. Fast-forward to the present, and the Twins find themselves on the brink of reintegrating Paddack into the role they wanted him to fill when they acquired him on Opening Day of the 2022 season: that of a mid-rotation starter. The Twins transitioning Paddack back into that gig seemed like a relative certainty to those who follow the Twins closely, especially with the recent departures of Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray. Yet, the decision to give Paddack a spot in 2024 has stirred some unexpected controversy at the national level. On November 28, Keith Law of The Athletic wrote an article wherein he recapped Maeda and Gray signing with the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively, and how the Twins could realistically fill the holes the two veterans left in the starting rotation. In his article, Law states that the Twins "only have three true starters left on the roster: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober." Law then went on to state that the organization has several former starters turned relievers, including Louie Varland, who, according to Law, "was very homer-prone as a starter last season," which is true, evidenced by his 20.6% HR/FB over 10 games as a starter. Also, Law mentioned Jordan Balazovic, who "hasn't shown enough command to even be a good reliever yet," as another potential rotation option. Law was correct to say that Balazovic hasn't shown that he could be a good reliever yet, let alone a starter, but to mention his name as a potential rotation option for the Twins in 2024 feels like a statement someone who is out of touch with how the franchise is operating would make. Law is one of my favorite baseball analysts, so I don't want it to appear as if I am bashing him. Yet, I want to provide clarity and context to his coverage of the Twins and their mode of operation before sharing what he declared next. If one were to scroll down to the comment section of Law's article, they would see various Twins fans asking him why he mentioned Balazovic as a rotation option yet blatantly ignored Paddack. A specific commenter, "Jesse W." questioned Law's stance by stating, "I definitely agree with the conclusion that the Twins need another pitcher, but this was a weird write-up about their rotation. No mention of Chris Paddack, whom they're obviously planning on having in the starting rotation, but for some reason a mention of Balazovic, who is a guy they've pretty clearly given up on. Was this blurb written last year?" Law responded to Jesse W., saying, "(Paddack has) never made 30 starts or thrown 150 innings in any year. Anyone assuming he'll do either of those things after he threw just 14 total innings last year (minors + majors) is ... well, to quote someone else in this thread, 'lazy.'" Law finished, adding, "If the Twins want to be unrealistic, that's on them. That's not the world in which I operate. The point of my paragraph on them is what they need to do, not what they might internally believe." While it is understandable to question the Twins' seemingly unassailable confidence in Paddack, who pitched 18 (not 14) total innings in 2023 after his second Tommy John surgery in seven years and has never pitched an entire season as a starter anywhere in pro ball, to suggest he is not a viable rotation option--and maybe even that Balazovic is closer to being one--was bizarre. The front office must find a way to replace Maeda and Gray's contributions toward the rotation in 2023. They're not expecting Paddack to give them everything Gray did. He's a much better analog for Maeda, and that's the production they'll hope he can match. Replacing Gray will likely end up being a group effort, effected by multiple back-end starting pitchers. The team might make a cheap free-agent signing like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Michael Wacha, or throw a combination of young internal options like Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa at the problem. To expect Paddack to shoulder that burden would be unfair and unreasonable, a mode of thinking that should be avoided at all costs. No matter the outside perspective, Paddack will play a vital role in the success of the Twins' starting rotation in 2024. Whether he thrives in an expanded role or crumbles under pressure is yet to be seen, but when taking into account the front office's ability to trade for and further develop veteran starting pitchers (i.e., Gray and López) and watching Paddack thrive on the mound as recently October, there is reason to be optimistic about his outlook. Was it unfair of Law to include Balazovic and omit Paddack? Do you think the Twins are wise to have faith in Paddack? Do you think Padddack will perform well in 2024? Comment below. View full article

I know you were just kidding, I wasn't offended or anything. There was multiple comments about the "lovably eccentric personality" line, so I just left a comment under yours. Also, I like NC more than Duke as well, so we are on the same page lol

While Duke basketball players can often be questionable characters, I did mean what I said about Stroman as a genuine compliment. He is one of my favorite personalities in baseball.

Intersecting circumstances could lead to an unlikely partnership between the Twins and starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports As front office members, agents, insiders, writers, and more come together this upcoming week at the spacious Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center in lovely Nashville, Tennessee, for Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings, one thing is evident: The Twins will not be, to quote Scott Boras, "fishing in the deep ocean." Though the cost-cutting Twins will be tasked with finding a center fielder who can adequately replace Michael A. Taylor, fortifying their bullpen, and acquiring a right-handed corner outfield bat to stabilize the lineup, their greatest challenge will be making up for the recently-departed 288 2/3 innings and 6.8 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) generated by Kenta Maeda (104 2/3 IP, 1.5 fWAR) and Sonny Gray (184 IP, 5.3 fWAR). Replacing Gray will be a more daunting challenge than doing the same with Maeda. Regardless, neither will be uncomplicated, particularly considering the Twins' self-imposed payroll restrictions. Now, young internal candidate Louie Varland could suffice as a seamless one-for-one replacement for Maeda, as evidenced by his 86 DRA- as a starting pitcher, which is a pitching metric created by Baseball Prospectus that focuses on expected contribution while isolating a pitcher's performance from uncontrollable factors like defense, park, and quality of opponents. Varland showed great promise as a reliever during the latter half of the 2023 regular season. Still, it would be in the Twins' best interest to allow the affordable soon-to-be 26-year-old to be a full-time rotation member for an extended period. Even if the Twins ultimately convert Varland into a reliever and opt to sign a veteran like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Wade Miley to a one-year deal for less than $10 million, they are still going to need to find a way to make up for Gray's exit from the organization. Expensive, top-tier free-agent starting pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodríguez are not realistic options, and though the Twins could realistically acquire frontline starting pitchers like Corbin Burnes or Logan Gilbert through trade, the idea of parting with potential franchise-altering prospects in Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodríguez is sure to give them pause. So, what realistic avenue could the Twins take to replace Gray's Cy Young Award-worthy 2023 production? The answer could be signing the high-risk, high-reward option, in Marcus Stroman. Stroman, 32, has long been among the more well-known starting pitchers in Major League Baseball due to his lovably eccentric personality and exceptional ability on the mound while a member of big-market franchises like the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs. Stroman began the 2023 season hot, generating a 2.28 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 83.3 LOB%. He struck out 44 of the 187 batters faced through his first 47 1/3 innings pitched from March 30 through May 8. Unfortunately, after a rough outing against the Twins on May 14 in which he gave up six earned runs over 2 2/3 innings pitched, Stroman's performance began to deteriorate. From the rough outing against the Twins in mid-May through July 31, Stroman generated a 4.76 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and 60.6% LOB%, while striking out only 67 of 351 batters through 81 1/3 innings pitched. Cubs fans began to wonder what was wrong with Stroman, a consistently above-average starter throughout his career, and if his decline in production could be injury-related. Eventually, their concerns were confirmed, as it was announced that Stroman had a right rib cartilage fracture and that he would need to be sidelined for an unknown amount of time. Fortunately for Stroman, he could return to the Cubs as a reliever on September 15. Although he struggled after his return, evidenced by his 5.63 ERA and 12.5% HR/FB over eight innings pitched and 38 total batters faced, it was encouraging to see Stroman make it back before the end of the season. Upon the conclusion of the 2023 season, Stroman somewhat surprisingly opted out of the third year of his contract with the Cubs, giving up a guaranteed $21 million for the 2024 season. Though his struggles before the announcement of his injury were discouraging, many of his shortcomings were overstated, and much of his poor numbers were due to being unlucky, rather than the injury weighing him down to an extreme extent. Regardless, Stroman's market and potential earnings have likely been suppressed due to poor luck, injury, and an overall lackluster latter half of last season. Though the circumstance in which Stroman finds himself is unfortunate for both himself and (on a macro scale) workplace labor efforts, his dampened market provides an opportunity for the cash-strapped Twins to jump in and sign a frontline starter at a team-friendly rate. What Could Stroman's 2024 Contract Look Like? Though the annual average value of the contract Stroman could earn will be less than if he had avoided injury and sustained his first-half success, there is good reason to believe he'll command some multi-year variation on the deal he opted out of with the Cubs. When looking at what a contract might look like for Stroman in 2024, there's wide variance in the predictions. For example, a collective of three MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) writers predicted that Stroman would receive a two-year, $44-million contract. Notably, MLBTR writer Darragh McDonald predicted the Twins would be the team that signed Stroman to that contract. Though McDonald's prediction is reason for optimism, it should be noted that the writer made that prediction before the Twins' intentions of making significant payroll reductions were public knowledge. More recently, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted that Stroman would sign a three-year, $77-million contract with the Colorado Rockies. Now, though Bowden does have sources within the league and writes for a reputable company, much of what he says or predicts should be taken with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, Stroman's contract has a greater chance of aligning with MLBTR's prediction than Bowden's more expensive estimate. While hurlers like Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery will garner contracts for the longer term and an AAV closer to $30 million per season, there is a significant chance Stroman signs a two- or three-year "prove it" deal worth $20 million per season. Even a short-term deal at that level feels too rich for the Twins, given what they've indicated about their intentions for this winter. Yet, if they were to trade one or more of Christian Vázquez ($10 million owed in 2024), Jorge Polanco ($10.5 million), or Max Kepler ($10 million), Stroman's hypothetical contract becomes much more palatable. Like Dallas Keuchel, Stroman is a pitcher who relies on getting outs via the groundball. To further prove this point, here is Stroman's groundball percentage (GB%) from his past five seasons: (*Note: Stroman sat out the shortened 60-game 2020 COVID season) 2018 (Blue Jays) - 62.1% 2019 (Blue Jays & Mets) - 53.7% 2021 (Mets) - 50.8% 2022 (Cubs) - 51.7% 2023 (Cubs) - 57.1% Combining Stroman's high GB% with the fact that the Twins' infield defense struggled during 2023 is a reason for the Twins to shy away from pursuing his services in free agency. Though this is a reasonable cause for concern, the Twins' infield could realistically become an improved, more cohesive unit during the 2024 season. With Carlos Correa recovering from his struggles with plantar fasciitis, Royce Lewis having an offseason of continuity at one position, Edouard Julien building off his late-season defensive improvements, and Jorge Polanco and Kyle Farmer remaining consistently above-average fielders, this has the makeup of an above-average defensive infield unit. That could help someone like Stroman thrive with his new team. The Twins will be hard-pressed to find a solution for the recent departures of Maeda and Gray. Though they could part ways with high-end prospect capital and find a frontline starting pitcher through the trade market, it could make sense for them to sign the high-risk, high-reward option in Stroman. Should the Twins sign Stroman? Which path should the organization go down when attempting to find a replacement for Gray? Comment below. View full article

The Twins haven't selected a player in the Rule 5 Draft since Tyler Kinley in 2017. Could this be the offseason wherein the six-year drought ends? Image courtesy of Rich Storry - USA TODAY Sports Rule 5 Draft season is upon us, and while it is much less of a spectacle than the traditional Major League Baseball Draft, it provides front offices the unique ability to acquire Major League-ready talent without having to shell out expensive contracts or part with valuable prospect capital. Typically, eight to 12 players are selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but only four or five stay with their new teams for the entire season. For example, in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, 15 players were selected. Yet, only six (Thaddeus Ward, Ryan Noda, Jose Hernandez, Blake Sabol, Mason Englert, and Kevin Kelly) stayed at the big-league level all season. Of the six players listed, Noda (a first baseman for the Oakland Athletics) and Kelly (a relief pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays) were the best of the bunch, generating 2.0 and 1.2 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs, respectively. Most players selected in the Rule 5 Draft are corner infielders or outfielders and relief pitchers, and, interestingly enough, those are two of the Twins' most significant positions of need. The Twins have not taken a player in the Rule 5 Draft since selecting Tyler Kinley in 2017. In a normal offseason, it would be fair to assume the Twins will yet again pass on making a Rule 5 selection, but self-imposed payroll restrictions could propel the Twins into making their pick in nearly seven years. So, which specific players should the Twins target in this year's Rule 5 Draft? Let's begin by venturing down South, to Jacksonville, Florida. Troy Johnston Johnston, 26, is a left-handed throwing and hitting first baseman/outfielder, selected by the Marlins in the 17th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Gonzaga University. Now, one might ask themselves, "Why would the Twins take another left-handed hitter at these positions, when Alex Kirilloff is on the roster?" Although this is a reasonable question, the reason is that due to injuries, Kirilloff has long been more of an idea or concept rather than a player the Twins can rely on going forward. With that in mind, it might be in the Twins' best interest to find a young, cheap, consistent left-handed hitter who fits Kirilloff's mold, and Johnston has the potential to be exactly that. To further push this idea, here are Johnston's numbers between Double and Triple-A during the 2023 MiLB season: .307/.399/.549 (.948), 512 AB, 157 hits, 26 home runs, 24 stolen bases, 18.3 K%, 10.0 BB%, .234 ISO, 143 wRC+ Johnston generated elite offensive numbers between Double and Triple A, while stealing 24 bases, showing signs of potentially being a rare five-tool first baseman. Johnston didn't play the outfield in 2023, but could play both corner outfield spots at the highest level, as that is where he played in college at Gonzaga and lower minor-league levels. If Kirilloff is healthy and able to produce as the Twins' first baseman in 2024, Johnston could slide into the role Joey Gallo had during the 2023 season, spending time at first base, designated hitter, and both corner outfield spots--while costing nearly $10 million less than Gallo did. If the Twins were to select Johnston, he could instantly slot in as a cheap insurance policy for the oft-injured Kirilloff, while competing with fellow left-handed corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and switch-hitting first baseman/designated hitter Yunior Severino for the final bench role on the Twins' 26-man roster. If Johnston performs poorly during Spring Training or is outperformed by Larnach, Gordon, Severino, or a healthy Kirilloff, the Twins could return him to the Marlins or trade him to a team with a sudden need for that kind of profile. Johnston is arguably the best position player available in this year's Rule 5 Draft, and if he were to be available when the Twins are on the board, it would make great sense for them to consider selecting the intriguing prospect. Blaine Crim Crim, 26, is a right-handed hitting first baseman and designated hitter, selected by the Rangers in the 19th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Mississippi College. Much like Johnston, Crim, an older prospect, finds himself unprotected after an admirable 2023 season in which he put up the following numbers: .289/.385/.506 (.891), 494 AB, 143 hits, 22 home runs, seven stolen bases, 18.4 K%, 12.2 BB%, .217 ISO, 114 wRC+ Crim possesses the ability to get on base at a sufficient rate while hitting for power, which is the perfect skillset for a player who fits the mold of a backup first baseman and offensive utility player. Despite playing 851 of the 902 innings (94%) he spent in the field at first base with Triple-A Round Rock, Crim also played 51 innings at third base. If the Twins were to select Crim in the Rule 5 Draft, he would likely compete with Severino and a potential free-agent signee for the role utility player Donovan Solano filled during the 2023 season. Contending with Severino, who has been a part of the Twins organization since 2017, would be a daunting task for Crim. Even so, it might be in the Twins' best interest to bring him in for his offensive upside and potential to platoon with the left-handed hitting Kirilloff at first base. Crim is more likely to be available than Johnston when they make their first selection in the Rule 5 Draft, and with the team needing a right-handed hitter, taking a flier on Crim could make sense for the (presently Solano-less) Twins. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa The Twins initially selected Hoopii-Tuionetoa in the 16th round of the 2018 MLB Draft, but they didn't sign him. Later, he was selected and signed by the Rangers after being taken in the 30th round of the 2019 Draft out of Pierce College. Beyond his past connection to the Twins, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's pitch mix (headlined by a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a knockout slider) is exactly the type of profile the Twins' front office values and prioritizes when attempting to acquire bullpen talent. Of the players mentioned, Hoopii-Tuionetoa feels like the most apparent selection the Twins (who need high-velocity talent at the back end of their bullpen) could make, but there is one caveat: He has yet to pitch beyond High A. Though he hasn't pitched at the upper levels, though, Hoopii-Tuionetoa put up relatively inspiring numbers with the High-A Hickory Crawdads: 11 2/3 IP, 1.54 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 95.2 LOB% Hoopii-Tuionetoa's 10.0 K/9 and 95.2% LOB% would play exceptionally well, but his home-run rates at the High-A is cause for concern over whether he could perform adequately at the Major League level. Despite demonstrating some obvious weaknesses, Hoopii-Tuionetoa's potential was on full display at the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out 10 hitters over 9 2/3 scoreless innings pitched. Regardless, similarly to Johnston and Crim, it would make sense for the Twins to bring Hoopii-Tuionetoa to Spring Training and have him compete with fellow back end-of-the-bullpen candidates Matt Canterino, Jorge Alcala, Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Brent Headrick for the Twins eighth and final bullpen spot. If Hoopii-Tuionetoa is outperformed, the Twins could return him to the Rangers, with the only penalty being the team losing $50,000, which is a loss even the cost-cutting Twins could afford. CJ Van Eyk Van Eyk, 25, is a right-handed pitcher selected by the Blue Jays in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of Florida State University. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2021--a unique proposition in this group, as (unlike the overpowering Hoopii-Tuionetoa) he is a lower-velocity finesse pitcher who sports one of the best curveballs in Minor League Baseball. To further illustrate Van Eyk's potential as a Major League relief pitcher, here are his numbers between Rookie Ball, Single-A, and his time with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats: 12 G, 34 1/3 IP, 33 strikeouts, 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 9.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 77.3% LOB% Admittedly, Van Eyk's numbers could be more inspiring. Still, due to the small sample size, it's important not to extrapolate too heavily (whether positive or negative) from the 34 1/3 post-Tommy John innings between three Minor League levels he pitched in 2023. Van Eyk projects more as a potential back-end starter than as a relief pitcher, but there is reason to believe he could fulfill the same swingman role Simeon Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder occupied for the Twins during parts of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Woods Richardson, Sands, Headrick, and Winder will be capable of cheaply filling that role again in 2024, but what is appealing about Van Eyk is his potential to progress beyond a stretch reliever role and join Kody Funderburk and Alcala as potentially stellar relief options in the Twins' bullpen hierarchy for the longer term. Other Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players the Twins Could Consider Selecting: Justin Slaten, Tanner Burns, Nasim Nuñez, Hudson Haskin, Kohl Franklin. Though contending teams are less likely to select players in the Rule 5 Draft, it could make sense for the cost-cutting Twins to make their first selection since drafting Kinley in 2017. Although selecting a first baseman/outfielder who provides a similar skillset as Gallo or Solano makes sense, they are most likely to select a young, cost-controlled relief pitching option like Hoopii-Tuionetoa or Van Eyk. Who do you like as a target for the Twins in this free talent draft next week? Should they make a selection, or pass? Let's weigh the options together. Should the Twins select a player in the Rule 5 Draft? Do any of the players mentioned stand out? Comment below. View full article