Cody Schoenmann

Since Derek Falvey took over as the Minnesota Twins' President of Baseball Operations after the 2016 MLB season, he's traded for the following MLB-caliber relievers at the Trade Deadline: 2017 - Gabriel Moya 2018 - N/A 2019 - Sergio Romo, Sam Dyson 2020 - N/A 2021 - John Gant (technically a reliever, but started seven of the 14 games he pitched with Minnesota) 2022 - Jorge López, Michael Fulmer 2023 - Dylan Floro The Twins have traded for a reliever in five of Falvey's first seven seasons at the helm, taking swings on high-leverage, late-inning arms like Romo, Dyson (a horrible person, I know), Fulmer, and (most notably) López. Floro wasn't a buy, per se. Still, the team acquired the veteran righty with hopes of him blossoming into a steady arm that theoretically could have been used in mid-to-high leverage moments as the team pursued their third American League Central title in five seasons. Although the Twins are five games behind the seemingly indomitable force that is the first-place Cleveland Guardians, they hold the second Wild Card spot, with the resurgent Boston Red Sox and regressing Kansas City Royals two games behind. They're in the thick of contention, with FanGraphs giving them an 85.6% chance of earning a playoff spot. Having found themselves in this advantageous position, the front office will likely scour the relief market over the next month, hoping to fortify the seventh-best bullpen in MLB (according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR)). New York Mets right-handed reliever Reed Garrett could be the apple of the Twins front office's eye. Garrett, 31, was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 16th round of the 2014 MLB Draft, out of Virginia Military Institute (VMI). He spent the 2014 through 2018 seasons progressing from Low-A to Triple-A in Texas's farm system, before getting selected by the Detroit Tigers in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. He appeared in 13 games as a reliever for Detroit, posting an uninspiring 8.22 ERA, 7.19 FIP, 59 ERA+, and 10-to-13 strikeout-to-walk-ratio over 15 1/3 innings pitched. The Tigers designated Garrett for assignment in mid-May. Returned to the Rangers organization, Garrett spent the remainder of the 2018 season with their Triple-A affiliate before confronting a career crossroads. He signed with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) in 2019. The journeyman wouldn't make his return to the United States until 2022, when he signed a minor-league deal with the Nationals. He didn't stick there, though, and was designated for assignment by both Washington and the Orioles by the middle of 2023, when he was claimed by the Mets. New York was no instant balm for him. However, the nomadic 31-year-old reliever finally turned things around early in the 2024 campaign. Garrett burst onto the scene this spring, carving out a 0.57 ERA, 1.94 FIP, and 2.21 xFIP while striking out 28 and walking seven over 15 2/3 innings pitched and 61 total batters faced in April. Since the start of May, the ERA is 4.56, so he's come back to Earth, but there are still encouraging things under the hood, including a strikeout rate right around 29%. Garrett has been propelled into a prominent role, competing with fellow set-up relievers Adam Ottavino and Dedniel Núñez for high-leverage opportunities. The Mets were hot in June, posting a 16-8 record. New York's resurgence has placed them just two games out of the third and final National League Wild Card spot. However, the team's good fortunes could go for naught, as FanGraphs estimates the Mets have a mere 36% chance of earning a Wild Card spot. If New York reverts to their early season struggles, the organization could elect to part ways with expendable veteran players to net controllable prospect capital, and the invigorated Garrett is a prime trade piece. With closer Jhoan Durán undergoing an alarming dip in four-seam fastball velocity and uncertainty surrounding when or if set-up relievers Brock Stewart and Justin Topa can return to the Twins' bullpen, the front office could be incentivized to acquire another high-leverage right-handed arm. Garrett gets to that gaudy strikeout rate in impressive fashion. He is a true five-pitch reliever, using the following pitches to generate one of the highest whiff and chase rates in MLB: Splitter - 24.6% Cutter - 24.2% Sweeper - 22.8% Four-seam fastball - 18.4% Sinker - 10% The hard-tossing veteran’s repertoire aligns with the organization's preferences, making him an appealing option for a team needing a high-leverage, right-handed reliever whose services could be acquired at a price even the Twins' frugal ownership group could stomach. It'll be interesting to see whether he's available to them over the next few weeks.

In his most recent piece at The Athletic, writer and former front office executive Jim Bowden wrote a piece looking at "trade targets for each contender, plus deadline priorities for all 30 teams." In the middle of the article, one will find Bowden's assessment and top needs for the Minnesota Twins, where he suggests that a "[right-handed-hitting] corner outfielder" and "pitching depth" should be the organization's priorities as the trade deadline nears. His reasoning behind this assessment is that the Twins are "looking for a platoon-type corner outfielder who hits right-handed. Like most teams, they also want to add some pitching depth, especially to their starting rotation, to protect from injuries." Thank you, Jim, for this excellent, in-depth analysis; I am delighted to pay $7.99 per month for this. (I'm just being facetious. Aaron Gleeman, Dan Hayes, and other great regional and national writers and podcasters make the subscription well worth it. Still, please follow and support local and independent writers for better and more thorough analysis than Bowden's. In fact, here comes some, now.) Regardless, Bowden names Erick Fedde, Patrick Sandoval, Luis Severino, and Trevor Williams (presently on the 15-day IL with a right muscle flexor strain) as pitching depth options. In contrast, he lists Luis Robert Jr., Heston Kjerstad, Randy Arozarena, and Lane Thomas as right-handed hitting corner outfield options. Acquiring Robert Jr. would be an incredi-... Wait, Robert Jr., Kjerstad, Arozarena, and Thomas... This doesn't add up. Oh yes, that's right, Kjerstad isn't right-handed. There is a difference between being pedantic and recognizing when someone is neglectfully wrong. In this instance, I swear, I'm doing the latter. Bowden got a crucial detail wrong. Nevertheless, he identified left-handed-hitting corner outfielder and top prospect Kjerstad as a potential trade candidate for the Twins. The 25-year-old corner outfielder and first baseman is an intriguing name, for a couple of reasons. Kjerstad, selected second overall by the Orioles in the 2020 MLB Draft, spent the better part of the 2022 and 2023 MiLB seasons excelling in the organization's system, before debuting on Sept. 14, 2023. The University of Arkansas product played in 13 games with the powerhouse Orioles last season, slashing .233/.281/.467, with seven hits, one double, two home runs, two walks, 10 strikeouts, and a 106 OPS+ over 30 plate appearances. Kjerstad didn't make the team's playoff roster, and started the 2024 season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides before he was recalled in late April. In seven games with Baltimore spanning from late April to early May, MLB.com's 21st-ranked prospect slashed .143/.294/.143, with two hits, zero doubles, zero home runs, two walks, six strikeouts, and an uninspiring 34 OPS+ over 17 plate appearances. The power-hitting lefty performed poorly in an exceptionally small sample size and was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk in favor of fellow left-handed hitting outfield prospect Kyle Stowers. Kjerstad has struggled to find his footing at the major-league level. Yet, with Baltimore having a short leash and providing him only 47 plate appearances with the parent club over the past two seasons combined, it is nearly impossible to adequately assess how the former first-round pick will perform at the highest level. Despite not receiving an extended look with the Orioles (while other left-hitting outfielders Colton Cowser and the aforementioned Stowers have), Kjerstad has performed exceptionally well at Triple-A over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .306/.384/.564, with 148 hits, 33 doubles, and 25 home runs, plus 55 walks and 129 strikeouts over 564 plate appearances. Mixing a high on-base percentage with a high slugging average, Kjerstad has become one of the most dangerous offensive players in MiLB. Over the past two seasons at Triple-A, Kjerstad has generated a modest 23.3% strikeout rate. However, his strikeout rate tends to jump when promoted. In those two very brief stints with the Orioles, he's fanned in 32% of his trips to the plate. This deficiency appears to be the driving force behind the Orioles' reluctance to provide the power-hitting lefty an extended opportunity in "The Show." Kjerstad has performed like a high-strikeout, high-power corner outfielder in his brief stints in MLB. Although this type of player prototype strikes a chord with Twins fans (hello, Joey Gallo and Matt Wallner), it is vital not to misidentify him as an all-or-nothing bat. He has never finished a minor-league season with a strikeout rate above 27%, which suggests that his bloated rate over 47 MLB plate appearances is an inaccurate representation of his skillset. Kjerstad deserves an extended look in MLB, yet with Cowser, Stowers, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, and other valuable MLB contributors, it appears that opportunity might not come any time soon in Baltimore. With Wallner and Alex Kirilloff struggling to produce at the major-league level this season; Trevor Larnach being an unpredictable source of offensive contribution who could seemingly regress at any moment; and the organization lacking other minor-league left-handed outfielders who could step in and immediately produce offensively, the Twins could be incentivized to trade for Kjerstad. If Kirilloff is on the outs (as you'd expect, at this point), the appeal of such a move increases. Despite Baltimore's surplus of prospects and the public perception of Kjerstad likely being lower than it should be after he struggled earlier this season, the cost to acquire the 2020 second-overall pick will undoubtedly be hefty. The Orioles are a well-rounded team without a glaring weakness. However, if there were one area of concern for Baltimore, it would be the back end of their bullpen. Despite ranking sixth in Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) and fourth in bullpen FIP as a collective, their top late-inning arms are Craig Kimbrel, Cionel Pérez, Jacob Webb, and a regressing yet still productive Yennier Canó. The Orioles would benefit from acquiring a bona fide closer and potentially another a high-leverage set-up reliever, and although fire-throwing arms like Mason Miller, Edwin Díaz, and Ryan Helsley are enticing, acquiring their services would require taking on a hefty price tag or parting ways with multiple top prospects. The Orioles have the resources to acquire relievers the likes of Miller, Díaz, and Helsley. However, the Twins could present the most intriguing trade candidate, in Griffin Jax. Under control until the end of the 2027 MLB season, Jax becomes arbitration-eligible this offseason, meaning the price of retaining his services will gradually increase over the next three seasons. The Twins are a stingy organization, and they are particularly frugal regarding relievers. The Twins could trade Jax and another near-MLB-ready arm like Louie Varland (whom Baltimore could transition into a full-time reliever), David Festa, or Zebby Matthews to acquire the high-ceiling Kjerstad, who is under team control until the end of the 2029 season. Landing Kjerstad could be a pivotal move for the Twins in the short and longer term, as he could become an immediate contributor for the present-day, playoff-hopeful 2024 team with the potential of becoming a mainstay in an idealized future outfield with veteran Byron Buxton and fellow highly-touted and developing left-handed hitting prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.

Minnesota Twins star third baseman Royce Lewis began a rehab assignment with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints Saturday, joining the squad to face the Toronto Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in beautiful upstate New York. Lewis's return to the diamond indicates that the 24-year-old franchise cornerstone will soon be joining the big-league club, with the expectation that the 2017 first-overall pick will return to form as a steady offensive force at the top of the lineup. The Junipero Serra Catholic High School product's return will be celebrated as a cause for renewed optimism about the lineup. However, Twins' decision-makers will be tasked with deciding which player to remove from the 26-man roster to make room for Lewis. At first glance, demoting a young position player like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, or Edouard Julien makes the most sense. All three players have minor-league options, and all have struggled to produce offensively for most of May. However, Larnach and Kirilloff have recently provided an uptick in offensive production. Also, Julien has long been regarded as a mainstay in the team's lineup, which could make demoting him an uncomfortable blow for him and the team. The team could also designate a struggling veteran player like Manuel Margot, Carlos Santana, or Kyle Farmer for assignment. However, the Twins' front office values having adequate depth and will go to great lengths to keep veterans around. Newfound injury or other unforeseen circumstances could make the club's impending decision moot, but in all likelihood, a tough call is around the corner. However, there is one position player with minor league options who deserves immunity from the threat of demotion: José Miranda. Since taking over as the team's near-everyday third baseman in early May, Miranda has hit .279/.313/.467, with 34 hits, five home runs, and four walks over 125 plate appearances and 38 total games. Miranda has generated a 122 wRC+, which places him fourth behind team leaders Ryan Jeffers, Max Kepler, and Carlos Correa. Despite exhibiting shaky defense at third base, the 25-year-old has become one of the team's most well-rounded hitters, reverting to the player he was during his breakout 2022 campaign, wherein he hit .268/.325/.426 with 119 hits, 15 home runs, and 28 walks over 483 plate appearances and 125 games. The Twins and those who follow the team have welcomed Miranda's early career renaissance with open arms. However, no matter how much Miranda produces at the plate, third base will rightfully be handed back to Lewis once he returns from the IL. Lewis's immediate insertion into the hot corner doesn't mean Miranda needs to lose at-bats or get demoted to Triple-A St. Paul. Yet, figuring out where to play the hot-hitting right-handed bat will present a unique challenge for Twins decision-makers. Miranda could naturally slot in as the designated hitter against left-handed starting pitchers, though the team will face right-handed starting pitchers considerably more often. Miranda could play third base when Lewis needs a day off or is the designated hitter. Both avenues are natural fits, yet neither would present a meaningful opportunity for the former second-round pick to continue contributing to the Twins' inconsistent and often stagnant offense. Interestingly, ample opportunity could present itself at first base. According to Baseball Reference's spreadsheet showing position-by-position performance for each team, the Twins rank 18th in MLB at first base with -0.5 Wins Above Average (WAA). Most of the team's production at first base has come from the duo of Santana (177 plate appearances) and Kirilloff (32 plate appearances). Miranda generated four plate appearances at the position, having played 8 1/3 innings while starting against the Baltimore Orioles on April 17. Nevertheless, the stereotypically offensively rich position has left much to be desired for Minnesota, and Miranda could provide production--something the relatively lifeless duo of Santana and Kirilloff have yet to achieve this season. Miranda has long been considered a defensive liability at third, who needed to produce huge numbers offensively to justify playing significant time at the hot corner. Interestingly, despite being a lackluster defender at third base, Miranda is perceived as a worse defender at first base. As rare as that is, his advanced metrics match the eye test. In 2022, Miranda had 154 attempts at first base. In these attempts, he managed a 71% success rate against a 74% estimated (expected) success rate, resulting in -4 Outs Above Average at Baseball Savant (OAA). In contrast, he had 91 attempts at third base, resulting in a 62% success rate and 61% estimated success rate, earning 1 OAA. Miranda played only 2 1/3 innings at first base in 2023, leaving us nothing to analyze. However, his performance at third base dropped precipitously, garnering a 71% success rate against a 76% estimated success rate, resulting in an uninspiring -6 OAA over 109 attempts. Admittedly, Miranda did have a significant shoulder injury that limited his ability to throw and ultimately required the Puerto Rican native to undergo surgery. Yet, despite fully recovering from that issue, Miranda is still struggling at third base, generating a 65% success rate and a 69% estimated success rate. Miranda's performance at third base has earned him -3 OAA through 71 attempts. With Miranda being one of the most stable and well-rounded offensive contributors on the team, Lewis nearing a highly anticipated return from the 10-day IL, and Santana and Kirilloff leaving much to be desired out of first base, the Twins ought to give Miranda a real chance at first base, even though they've been reluctant to play him at the position. Santana's excellent glove work could allow them to get him into games late for defense, after Miranda's superior bat gives the team a lead with which to work. How would you distribute Miranda's playing time upon Lewis's reinstatement, positionally? Who should get the boot from the roster in the process? Sound off below.

Over 35 games played, Twins right fielder Max Kepler has garnered 131 plate appearances. Due to missing 13 games from a right knee contusion that placed him on the 10-day IL and five rest days, Kepler is not among the team leaders in plate appearances. However, the 31-year-old is among qualified team leaders in numerous offensive metrics: 2nd in Isolated Power (ISO) - .214 1st in Batting Average (BA) - .291 2nd in On-Base Percentage (OBP) - .354 2nd in Slugging Percentage (SLG) - .504 2nd in weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) - .372 2nd in wRC+ - 144 tied-2nd in Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) - 1.3 Kepler has been the Twins' best offensive player (alongside catcher/designated hitter Ryan Jeffers), and he is doing so while excelling against both left- and right-handed pitchers. Here are the hot-hitting lefty's splits to begin his 2024 campaign: vs. LHP - .381/.409/619, 22 plate appearances, eight hits, two doubles, one home run, one walk, four strikeouts vs. RHP - .271/.343/.479, 109 plate appearances, 26 hits, 11 doubles, three home runs, 10 walks, 16 strikeouts Kepler has shined against same-handed pitchers, although (so far) only in a very small sample of opportunities. Moreover, his good fortune in limited plate appearances suggests that the Germany native is improving in an area in which he has struggled most of his career (.220 career BA over 1,021 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers). Kepler has always hit well against right-handed pitchers (.244 career BA and 131 home runs over 2,962 plate appearances), yet he is exhibiting enhanced results this season. Being in a great place mentally, reducing his leg kick, and good health have been cited as reasons for the long-time Twin's offensive renaissance, which really began last July. However, there is one difference between Kepler's success in the second half of last season and early this season: his number of home runs. During the second half of the 2023 season (July 14 through October 1), Kepler hit 12 home runs while generating a .243 ISO over 265 plate appearances. Interestingly, he has hit only four home runs over 123 plate appearances this season, despite sporting a similarly well-above-average .220 ISO. Why is Kepler's power not translating to home runs? Let's take a look. Lack of Exit Velocity at Higher Launch Angles Kepler's hardest-hit balls are being manufactured at launch angles that prevent hitters from getting the ball over the fence. When Kepler hits the ball at a 25- to 35-degree launch angle, he's sporting a 69.9 MPH 10th-percentile Exit Velocity (EV) and 102.1 MPH 90th-percentile EV. At a 35- to 45-degree launch angle, he has a 77.6 MPH 10th-percentile EV and a 97.1 MPH 90th-percentile EV. Balls hit in this exit velocity range can sneak over the wall when the conditions are especially favorable, but they're mostly flyouts or doubles, depending on the ballpark. Kepler's inability to hit balls with a 25- to 45-degree launch at especially high EVs provides insight into why he has been unable to hit more home runs. Despite not being able to generate the EV numbers necessary to lift balls with a launch angle between 25 and 45 degrees over the fence, he is hitting balls in lower bands exceptionally well. When hitting it at a launch angle between 5 and 15 degrees, Kepler generates an 84.8 MPH 10th-percentile EV and a 110.8 MPH 90th-percentile EV. Between 15 and 25 degrees, the numbers are: 85.2 MPH 10th-percentile, 107.1 90th-percentile EV. Kepler performs exceptionally well when hitting the ball at a launch angle between 5 and 25 degrees, evidenced by a combined .782 xWOBA. For reference, when hitting the ball at a launch angle between 25 and 45 degrees, he is manufacturing a less inspiring .337 wOBA. This is true of most hitters. On average, the league's best outcomes come between 2 and 25 degrees of launch angle. Unfortunately, lifting the ball over the fence at this angle is much more complicated than if he could generate a higher EV on balls hit at a launch angle between 25 and 45 degrees. That's what separates the league's great power hitters from the rest. Baltimore Orioles star shortstop Gunnar Henderson (tied for most home runs in MLB with 17) is performing at a similar rate as Kepler within the 15-to-25 band. Here is how the two compare: Kepler - .851 xWOBA, 1.500 SLG, 98 MPH EffVel, 85.2 MPH 10th-percentile EV, 107.1 MPH 90th-percentile EV Henderson - .835 xWOBA, 1.474 SLG, 99 MPH EffVel, 90.6 MPH 10th-percentile EV, 109.1 MPH 90th-percentile EV Although Henderson is generating a faster Effective Velocity, 10th-percentile EV, and 90th-percentile EV than Kepler, the two are producing at similar rates when fitting into that range, evidenced by their respective slugging averages. However, the Orioles' young shortstop separates himself from the Twins' veteran right fielder when it comes to their productivity when hitting the ball at a launch angle between 25 and 35 degrees. Here is how the two compare: Kepler - .639 xWOBA, 1.286 SLG, 75.8 MPH EffVel, 69.9 MPH 10th-percentile EV, 102.1 MPH 90th-percentile EV Henderson - 1.222 xWOBA, 2.857 SLG, 88.7 EffVel, 91.1 MPH 10th-percentile EV, 108 MPH 90th-percentile Despite performing well and still generating positive results when hitting the ball between 25 and 35 degrees, Kepler is generating a lower EV, resulting in more hits worth one or two bases and more flyouts. Conversely, Henderson is maximizing the velocity of the balls he hits between 25 and 35 degrees. Thus, they're clearing the fence. Another indicator of Kepler's inability to launch the ball over the fence at the rate you'd expect is his Well-Hit Launch Angle (Well-hit LA), which measures a player's launch angle when hitting the ball with a 95 MPH or greater EV. Kepler's Well-Hit LA is below average, residing at a 42nd-percentile 10.9 degrees. In contrast, Kepler's Well-Hit LA in 2019 (his best offensive season) resided at 12.7 degrees. He is making a lot of contact and putting the ball into play at a high rate. However, his hardest-hit balls don't have much air under them, resulting in flyouts, singles, and doubles rather than home runs. Research assistance provided by TruMedia Sports.

Since making his MLB debut on May 1, 2022, pitcher Cole Sands has yet to find a consistent home with the Twins. In 2022, the then-24-year-old right-handed hurler started three games and made eight relief appearances for the parent club. In his 11 total games, Sands generated a 5.87 ERA, 4.74 FIP, and 9.8% home-runs-per-fly-ball rate, while striking out 28 hitters and walking 13 over 30 2/3 innings pitched and 145 total batters faced. The Florida State product left much to be desired after his rookie campaign. Despite his peripheral numbers suggesting he performed worse during his sophomore campaign in the Majors (5.52 FIP), Sands put together a marginally impressive 2023 season, netting a 3.74 ERA and 13.8% homers-per-fly-ball rate, while striking out 21 hitters and walking 13 over 21 2/3 innings pitched and 98 total batters faced. Sands pitched fewer innings in 2023 than in 2022, due to taking on a new role as a "break-glass-in-case-of-emergency" stretch reliever who made an appearance strictly if the Twins were leading by a significant margin, losing by a significant margin, or had no other pitchers available. Inconsistency is the hallmark of young adulthood. Yet, asking young men Sands's age to handle difficult, unpredictable work with poise and consistency is typical in today's game. With the former fifth-round pick occupying a 40-man roster spot, the club needed to decide how they would use Sands this offseason. Would he be utilized as a starter who could help an organization with newfound rotation depth concerns (upon the departures of Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Sonny Gray), or as a short reliever who could provide value in one-inning bursts and occasionally step up in medium- to high-leverage situations? As things played out at the end of spring training, they chose (for the most part) the latter role for him. Sands was exceptional in his first eight outings, sporting a 0.77 ERA, 2.28 FIP, and a mere 9.1% fly-ball-to-home-run rate while striking out 16 hitters and walking only two over 11 2/3 innings pitched and 44 batters faced. During his initial period of success, Sands relied heavily on a revamped cutter to complement his firmed-up four-seam fastball (1.3 MPH average increase from 2023 to 2024) and auxiliary curveball and splitter. The former Cape Cod Baseball League star was excelling at his first extended opportunity as a reliever. Then, the wheels fell off. Since April 28, Sands has generated a 12.00 ERA, 6.81 FIP, and an uninspiring 25% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, while striking out eight and walking one over six innings pitched and 31 total batters faced. Sands has been unable to consistently, effectively pound the zone, as he did over his first eight appearances, and hitters have manufactured more productive at-bats against the hard-throwing right-hander. Although Sands's regression is still a small sample size, his overall catalog with the Twins (4.89 ERA over 70 innings pitched) suggests he may never find sustained success in "The Show." Interestingly enough, Sands's fall from grace mimics what happened to fellow failed starting turned reliever pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic last season. Over his first 14 innings pitched in 2023, Balazovic posted a 1.29 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 13.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate while striking out 10 hitters and walking four over 14 innings pitched and 56 total batters faced. Like Sands this season, Balazovic was eventually thrown into high-leverage situations, preserving one- or two-run leads in the seventh or eighth innings. Unfortunately, Balazovic's production quickly plummeted, generating an 8.71 ERA, 8.00 FIP, and a dreadful 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate over his final 10 1/3 innings pitched and 52 total batters faced--after which he was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul. He spent the rest of the 2023 season in the Saints bullpen. Sands and Balazovic are very different pitchers. Sands's peripheral numbers and improved pitch mix this season are much more encouraging than Balazovic's last season. However, they are undergoing similar timelines of success and regression in consecutive seasons. Balazovic performed exceptionally well for 14 innings before his performance plummeted, and Sands performed well for 11 2/3 innings before he faltered. Also, both pitchers' home-run-to-fly-ball rates skyrocketed north of 20% when their ERA, FIP, and other metrics plunged. This phenomenon provides a strong indication as to why both pitchers began to struggle immensely. If Sands remains ineffective on the mound, he could quickly lose his newfound mid-to-high-leverage reliever role to improving right-handed veteran relievers like Jay Jackson or Josh Staumont. It is too early to seriously consider demoting Sands to Triple-A St. Paul. However, with Ronny Henríquez impressive in his one appearance with the parent club earlier this season, Jorge Alcalá seemingly deserving of an extended look in MLB, and Caleb Boushley providing ancillary depth, Sands could eventually find himself jumping between CHS Field and Target Field for the third consecutive season.

Last season, Twins outfielder Matt Wallner impressed everyone in his third stint in MLB, hitting .636/.714/1.000 with seven hits, one home run, and one double, a .364 Isolated Power (ISO), 0% strikeout rate, and 366 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances from May 23-28. Wallner's breakout was short-lived, though, as the team optioned the red-hot power-hitting corner outfielder to Triple-A St. Paul to activate fellow left-handed hitting outfielder Max Kepler off the 10-day injured list. The Forest Lake native spent two more months at Triple-A before returning to MLB in mid-July. The then-25-year-old would get rewarded with his first extended look with the parent club. Wallner didn't skip a beat, hitting .250/.351/.563 with eight hits, three home runs, one double, a .313 ISO, and 151 wRC+ over 38 plate appearances. Wallner's strikeout rate did jump to 35.1% in his return to the majors. Still, with the young outfielder producing at a 51% better than league-average clip, the Twins were understandably forgiving of the young outfielder's tendency to swing and miss. Wallner continued to hit well over the next two weeks, posting a 141 wRC+ and hitting three home runs (including a walk-off homer off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald) in 35 plate appearances. Wallner excelled, and began to look like a potential fixture in the Twins lineup for seasons to come. Then, he endured his first real test in "The Show." After his heroic walk-off home run against Arizona, the burly slugger hit .175/.299/.404 with 10 hits over 67 plate appearances. Despite continuing to manufacture an alarming 35.8% strikeout rate while watching his wRC+ drop to a below-league-average 97, Wallner continued hitting for power, smashing three more long balls over this stretch. Luckily for the Twins and Wallner, his skid quickly resided, and he hit .284/.411/.514 with 21 hits, four home runs, five doubles, a .230 ISO, a slightly more manageable 31.1% strikeout rate, and a well-above-average 157 wRC+. Wallner appeared to get his groove back just in time for his first postseason appearance. Alas: baseball makes fools of believers. Between the Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays and the ALDS against the Houston Astros, Wallner netted zero hits, three walks, and struck out eight times over 12 plate appearances. Being effectively non-present in the Twins' first extended playoff run in over 19 years, Wallner likely entered the offseason with a bitter taste in his mouth and a desire to show why he became one of the main contributors to what was arguably the best rookie class in Twins history. Unfortunately, he has yet to alleviate that wistful feeling three weeks into the 2024 season. In his first 31 plate appearances, Wallner is hitting .083/.258/.250 with two hits, one double, one home run, a 51.6% strikeout rate, and a 60 wRC+. Looking at Wallner's stat line, the one silver lining is the one home run. However, that home run came off a 61 MPH slider from Detroit Tigers utility infielder Zach McKinstry. Wallner's striking out in over half his plate appearances has led those who follow the team to compare him to former Twins strikeout-prone left-handed hitting outfielder Joey Gallo. However, hitting a home run off a position player is the icing on the cake. Now, I don't mean to be unabashedly rude to Wallner, and the comparisons to Gallo are likely premature and unfair (right?), but the 26-year-old looks uncompetitive at the plate and a shell of the force he was as a rookie last season. With Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Royce Lewis, and Brooks Lee on the 10-day injured list and fellow left-handed hitting corner outfielder Trevor Larnach still on a rehab assignment for a turf toe diagnosis that sidelined to begin the season, the Twins have a finite number of MLB-caliber position players available to them. Yunior Severino and Emmanuel Rodriguez are the only other players on the 40-man roster the Twins could promote to the parent club. Although promoting Rodríguez to the majors is tempting, he needs to continue developing in the minors for now. Severino cannot play the outfield, and his 36.1% strikeout rate at St. Paul doesn't bode well for the 24-year-old to string together more productive at-bats than Wallner in the majors. Kepler's stint on the 10-day IL and Wallner's inability to produce at the plate have forced the Twins to rely primarily on Manuel Margot and Austin Martin in the corner outfield. Although the contact-skilled righties have filled in adequately, the Twins lack pop out of two positions expected to be primary sources of power entering the season. With Larnach nearing a return from his rehab assignment, the Twins could have a natural one-for-one replacement for Wallner if he continues to put together uncompetitive at-bats. Needing to demote Wallner to Triple-A less than one month into the season would mark a new level of uncertainty about the value of a player who was almost a cornerstone coming into spring training. However, the Minnesota native's lackluster performance could leave the club's decision-makers no choice.

Twins 20th-ranked prospect Simeon Woods Richardson made his second career start against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park Saturday. It's the same site where he made his MLB debut 561 days earlier. Having begun the season at Triple-A St. Paul as the organization's sixth starter and the first line of defense if one of the initial five starting pitchers were to get injured or perform poorly, Woods Richardson was promoted to start the second game of a doubleheader. The 23-year-old performed exceptionally, tossing 80 pitches while giving up two hits, one walk, and one earned run, striking out five and generating 20 called strikes and whiffs (CSW) over six innings pitched. Woods Richardson overpowered Detroit's lineup, watching his four-seam fastball max out at 95.1 MPH and sit at 93 MPH, a 2.5-MPH increase from his one appearance in 2023. The ex-Mets and Blue Jays prospect threw his four-seam fastball 45 percent of the time while generating 10 CSW and averaging a respectable 2,210 revolutions per minute (RPM). Of the three appearances Woods Richardson has made in the majors, Saturday was by far his most encouraging performance, boosting fans' perception of the young righthander to an all-time high. By rule, he had to be demoted back to Triple-A St. Paul after the twin bill. Yet, his performance could have altered how the Twins front office will approach the starting rotation the rest of the season. Two times through the rotation, the quartet of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack have generated a 6.24 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, and 23.05% strikeout rate over 52 innings pitched. Those numbers are bloated due to Ober's implosive outing against the Kansas City Royals, wherein he gave up eight earned runs over 1 1/3 innings pitched, and the team's xFIP indicates that. Ober had the worst outing of the unit, but the worst pitcher two times through the rotation has seemingly been fifth starter Louie Varland. Over two starts, Varland has generated a 9.00 ERA, 7.36 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, and 22.2% strikeout rate. Varland was supposed to begin the season at Triple-A St. Paul, playing the role Woods Richardson currently inhabits, but presumed fifth starter Anthony DeSclafani undergoing forearm flexor tendon surgery bumped the 26-year-old St. Paul native into the club's Opening Day five-man rotation. Though Varland earning the fifth spot in the starting rotation upon news of DeSclafani's unavailability was expected, it's hard to guess how long of a leash the team's decision-makers will have with the hard-throwing righty. Last season, Varland's most significant shortcomings were his inability to limit home runs and concerns over the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches. Although Varland has improved his secondary pitches, the long ball remains a problem, with most home runs surrendered coming off his four-seam fastball. Varland has struggled at suppressing home runs since beginning the 2022 minor-league season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge; he's surrendered 46 dingers in 311 innings pitched over the last two-plus years. With no improvement in sight on that front, his performance over two starts to begin the season is particularly concerning and could be a driving force in potentially losing his spot in the starting rotation. Beyond his inability to limit home runs remaining a thorn in the 15th-round pick's side, a new problem has arisen this season. Over 45 batters faced, Varland's walk rate has jumped from 6.6% over his 10 games as a starter last season to 11.1% in 2024. Varland has never struggled with command at any level, so his newfound inability to suppress free passes is particularly concerning. The primary cause for his concerning command issues could be his trying to implement his new and refined pitches--most notably his curveball and cutter--into his repertoire. Still, while tinkering with pitches is expected (especially early in the season), adding command and location issues to concerns over the long ball is a worst-case scenario for the hard-tossing hurler. With Varland's first two starts coming against two above-average National League teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, there is reason to suspect he could turn his luck around against lesser opponents. Unfortunately, he won't get that opportunity this week, as his next start is Monday against the formidable Baltimore Orioles. Varland still merits an extended opportunity to prove that he can remain a productive member of the Twins starting rotation. However, if the same issues that thwarted his hopes of staying in the Twins' starting rotation in 2023 remain, they could yet again force him to transition into a relief role, as he did toward the end of last season. If this scenario plays out and Woods Richardson can build off his impressive start against the Tigers by performing well at Triple-A St. Paul for the next few weeks, we could see the former consensus Top 100 prospect get his first extended opportunity in MLB.

In 2023, the Minnesota Twins bullpen ranked 21st in Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), generating just 3.2 fWAR over 556 1/3 innings pitched. Star closer Jhoan Durán led the unit, generating 1.6 fWAR. Take away the debatably All-Star-worthy closer's production, and the team would have dropped two spots, to 23rd, behind the National League pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks and just in front of the much-less-accomplished Chicago White Sox (eek!). Despite generating little fWAR last season, the unit possessed redeeming qualities. Last season, the Twins bullpen was MLB's second-hardest-throwing unit, generating an average four-seam fastball velocity (vFA) of 95.3 MPH. The only team ahead of them was the Washington Nationals, who famously don't care how hard their pitchers throw ball four. The Twins bullpen also ranked favorably in these statistics: Strikeout Percentage (K%) - 25.2% (8th) Difference Between Strikeout Percentage and Walk Percentage (K-BB%) - 16.1% (8th) Batting Average Against (AVG) - .228 (8th) WHIP - 1.25 (7th) Left on Base Percentage - 73.3% (10th) The strikeouts were great; they helped the team escape some tough spots. That said, when opposing hitters did make hard contact against relievers, the results were disastrous for Minnesota's chances of winning games; they frequently blew one- or two-run leads. This phenomenon is evidenced by the 'pen ranking 17th in Win Advancement (+WPA), generating just 47.63 last season. At the same time, the bullpen did an impressive job of not advancing losses, ranking 10th in Loss Advancement (-WPA) last season. The 2023 Twins bullpen was a fickle bunch, including Durán, which is why it wasn't surprising when the front office elected to spend a significant portion of its limited resources to improve the unit this past offseason. During the four months between Game 4 of the ALDS on October 11, 2023, and pitchers and catchers reporting to Fort Myers on Valentine's Day, the Twins signed, claimed, or traded for MLB-caliber relievers Josh Staumont, Ryan Jensen, Justin Topa, Daniel Duarte, Zack Weiss, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert. Entering Spring Training, Jensen and Duarte had been removed from the 40-man roster and retained on minor-league deals. Staumont, Topa, Jackson, and Okert were expected to figure into the team's Opening Day eight-reliever bullpen. Unfortunately, Staumont and Topa suffered injuries during camp, joining Durán and Caleb Thielbar as veteran arms unable to contribute for the time being. Among the multitude of additions made this offseason, the only players contributing to the parent club are Jackson, Okert, and Duarte. The three offseason additions joined returning arms Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk, and Cole Sands to create the first iteration of the Twins' 2024 bullpen. Now, this group of arms is an unconventional cohort, and you would be hard-pressed to find a casual baseball fan able to name any of the hurlers who comprise it. That said, this isle of misfit arms has been the saving grace of the World Series-hopeful club. Primarily due to needing to mop up Bailey Ober's career-worst outing last Sunday, the club's bullpen ranks only 12th in fWAR, generating 0.1 fWAR. Yet, the group is thriving in nearly every other meaningful category. Since the Nationals began caring about how hard they throw ball four, they have presumably developed performance anxiety, allowing the Twins to take the top spot in vFA this season. On average, Minnesota's pen arms hit 96.4 MPH with their four-seam fastballs. Similar to last year, the bullpen has been able to reside toward the top of the league in many advanced metrics: K% - 29.6% (5th) K-BB% - 18.5% (9th) AVG - .139 (2nd) WHIP - 0.89 (4th) LOB% - 100% (2nd) The unit is also getting hitters to hit the ball softly in the air, evidenced by its ranking second in fly ball rate (FB%) and seventh in the percentage of balls in play that were hit with soft speed (Soft%). The team has been able to keep the ball in the ballpark, and while this is an encouraging sign, the numbers are likely skewed, having played most of their games in Kauffman Stadium, one of the least home run-friendly ballparks in MLB. Veterans Stewart, Jax, and Okert have shined in one-inning roles. However, Jackson, Alcalá, Duarte, Funderburk, and Sands have done an admirable job pitching multiple innings in close games. When starting pitcher Louie Varland struggled to get through four innings against the Milwaukee Brewers this past Tuesday, Alcalá and Jackson tossed four scoreless innings, almost helping the Twins construct a late-inning comeback win. Then, when fifth starter Chris Paddack weaved in and out of danger through four innings pitched against Milwaukee the next day, Duarte took the wheel for two innings, giving up a solo shot to Brewers rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio. Duarte's efforts led the way to a Twins comeback and allowed Stewart, Jax, and Okert to mow through the Brewers order in the game's final three innings and pull off a 7-3 victory to split the series. Despite losing the home opener to the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, young relievers Funderburk and Sands kept the Twins in the game during the later innings, giving up zero runs in 3 1/3 innings of relief. The Twins' grouping of inexperienced high-velocity bullpen arms, Alcalá, Jackson, Duarte, Funderburk, and Sands, has been tasked with pitching multiple innings, preserving leads, and not letting games get out of hand to provide the offense with an opportunity to make a comeback. The four of them have answered the call, providing high-leverage relievers Okert, Stewart, and Jax the opportunity to thrive in single-inning spurts. With the offense sputtering and most of the starting rotation struggling to pitch four innings, the bullpen has been a saving grace for the Twins early this season. With veterans Staumont, Topa, Thielbar, and Durán set to return relatively soon, the unit should become even more formidable as the season continues.

When starting third baseman Royce Lewis injured his right quadriceps aggressively rounding second base (with hopes to score) on a double down the left-field line by star shortstop Carlos Correa, manager Rocco Baldelli's immediate response was to shift second baseman Kyle Farmer to third and insert left-handed hitter Edouard Julien into the game at second. Turning to Julien was antithetical to the platoon-happy lineup the Twins deployed against rising star left-handed starting pitcher Cole Ragans. That said, they had no other choice. After Julien replaced Lewis in the third inning, the team's bench consisted of left-handed outfielder Matt Wallner, left-handed first baseman/designated hitter Alex Kirilloff, and right-handed backup catcher Christian Vázquez. Wallner, Kirilloff, and Vázquez all are basically unable to play third base, and the only other player on the field who could (Willi Castro) was stuck in left field with right-handed platoon mate Manuel Margot assigned to designated hitter duties. The Twins reacted to Lewis's injury as best they could, and although it ruined their initial plans for Ragans to face a near-exclusively right-handed lineup, their adjustments paid off, and the team concluded Opening Day with a 4-1 victory over Kansas City. Although the Twins handled Lewis's unexpected injury well at the moment, their course of action during his longish expected absence should deviate from what is currently perceived to be the plan. The Twins could hand Farmer the everyday job at third base until Lewis returns, and few would bat an eye. The former Cincinnati Reds starting shortstop is a steady veteran who can provide a meaningful sense of low-floor consistency (offensively and defensively) at the hot corner. This type of player possesses a lot of value, specifically this early in the season, but what if how Farmer is perceived doesn't match reality? As noted earlier, Castro was relegated to left field on Opening Day, with Margot restricted to designated hitter and Wallner providing less value against left-handed pitchers. Leaving Castro in left field was the right decision, given the way the Twins lineup was constructed and the specific bench restrictions in place. Farmer deserves to receive some playing time at third base during Lewis's absence. However, Castro is the better option, and the Twins should hand him the bulk of the newfound opportunities. Last season, Castro played 219 innings at third base. During his time at the hot corner, the 26-year-old utility player had 52 attempts straight up, 14 toward the shortstop/third base hole, and 12 close to the line. Here is Castro's success rate compared to his estimated success rate in his attempts: Straight up: 81% success rate; 74% estimated success rate Toward the SS/3B hole: 64% success rate; 70% estimated success rate Close to the line: 67% success rate; 68% estimated success rate Castro outperformed his estimated success rate straight up, performed below his estimated success rate toward the SS/3B hole, and nearly matched his estimated success rate close to the line. Showing exceptional range, Castro generated 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) at Baseball Savant, where 0 OAA is average. In 2023, Farmer played 276 1/3 innings at the hot corner, accounting for 57 2/3 more than Castro. The 33-year-old infielder had 33 attempts straight up, 30 close to the line, and 15 toward the shortstop/third base hole. So, despite playing nearly six-and-a-half more games at the position, Farmer received the same number of attempts at third base as Castro, with 78. Here is Farmer's success rate compared to his estimated success rate in his attempts: Straight up: 76% success rate; 74% estimated success rate Close to the line: 73% success rate; 74% estimated success rate Toward the SS/3B hole: 53% success rate; 66% estimated success rate Farmer outperformed his expected success rate straight up, nearly matched his estimated success rate close to the line, and significantly underperformed his estimated success rate toward the shortstop/third base hole. Showing slightly below-average range, Farmer generated -2 OAA at Baseball Savant. Farmer performed well on balls hit to him and down the line, but struggled mightily on balls hit toward the 5.5 hole, performing 13 percentage points worse than expected. Farmer showed more of the same tendencies against the Royals on Thursday. After replacing Lewis at third base in the bottom of the third inning, Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino chopped a weak two-out dribbler against starting pitcher Pablo López, toward Farmer at third. Farmer fielded the chopper and tossed it over to first baseman Carlos Santana to end the inning. Easy enough. Two innings later, Kansas City second baseman Adam Frazier chopped a similar ground ball toward Farmer, yet the result was less favorable for the utility infielder. Farmer bobbled the ball in his glove, allowing Frazier (who had a 31st-percentile sprint speed in 2023) to reach base safely on an infield single. Although Frazier's hit was inconsequential, these are the types of plays more skilled and agile third basemen with stronger arms (like Lewis and Castro) are more prone to making. Farmer immediately redeemed himself, fielding an almost two-hop groundball straight up from Royals designated hitter Nelson Velázquez and executing a flawless double play with second baseman Julien. Farmer isn't a bad defender, but his limited range and weaker arm make the non-routine plays at the hot corner more of a struggle. Castro would provide more defensive value at the position, having a stronger arm and more range. Do you agree that Willi Castro should be the primary third baseman in Lewis's absence? Join the discussion with a comment below.

The MLB season has already started, and the Twins play their first game later this week. So, why not predict the winners of the game's most prestigious awards? American League Awards Predictions AL MVP Matt - Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners I love Rodríguez. He showed up essentially fully formed and incredible in a tremendous 2022 season, then followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP race. He did that as a 22-year-old. Brooks Lee is 23. Few players in the AL combine Rodríguez's absurd athleticism with such a polished all-around game and a demeanor matched only by the most ardent competitors ever to don a baseball uniform. The only thing potentially holding him back—it’s hilarious to write that about a guy with 11.3 career fWAR over two seasons—is his offensive aggression. He swings like Count Basie. That “limits” his upside compared to superhuman on-base gods like Aaron Judge and Corey Seager, but I’m confident he’ll iron out the few holes in his game. Heck, Seager is a free swinger in his own way. Rodríguez just needs to hone his aggression to the same extent. Cody - Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals After an exciting but ultimately average rookie season, Witt broke out with a stellar sophomore performance, generating 5.7 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs and a 115 wRC+. The 23-year-old’s mighty 2023 campaign earned him an 11-year, $288-million contract. Royals ownership’s motive behind extending Witt was likely to persuade the public to fund a stadium in downtown Kansas City. Still, the former second-overall pick deserves every penny. The deal makes plenty of sense even without an ulterior motive? Do I think the Royals will challenge the Twins for the AL Central title this upcoming season? Not in a serious manner. Do I think Witt is the best player in the AL Central? Yes. In 2022, Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases. The following season, he hit 30 home runs and stole 49 bases. He made those leaps while cutting his strikeout rate by 4% and increasing his walk rate by 1.1%. Expect the face of the Royals to progress even more in 2024, potentially hitting 35-plus home runs and stealing 50 or more bases. Juan Soto is also a smart choice. AL Cy Young Matt - Pablo López, Minnesota Twins I’m fascinated by this race. The top four finishers in last year’s vote are either hurt (Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Kyle Bradish) or jumped ship to the NL (Sonny Gray). That leaves an extreme dearth of starters with a likely claim to win this award. So, López. Homerism? Sure. I can’t deny that. He’s in his athletic prime, though, and I think his peripherals align with his genuine talent more than his relatively unimpressive ERA does. He might win the award by default if he’s more in the 3.20 range, with a similar innings total and strikeout dominance. Luis Castillo and George Kirby are strong contenders here, too. Cody - George Kirby, Seattle Mariners Kirby is a strong contender--so strong that he’s my pick to win. In 190 ⅔ innings pitched last season, Kirby generated a 2.5% walk rate, the best in baseball. The 26-year-old righty's ability to minimize traffic on the bases guided him to an impressive 3.35 ERA, near-identical 3.34 FIP, and 4.4 fWAR in 2023. Utilizing a six-pitch (technically seven, if you count the knuckleball he threw twice) mix, Kirby overmatches hitters over elongated outings, averaging roughly 6 ⅓ innings per start. I love Matt’s pick of López, and as a fellow homer, I hope he wins the award. That said, Kirby is on the verge of elevating his game to an elite level while potentially tossing 200 or more innings, making me believe he will win his first AL Cy Young Award in 2024. Rookie of the Year Matt - Evan Carter, Texas Rangers I don’t care about small samples; Carter ran a 13.4% out-of-zone swing rate over a not-insignificant number of plate appearances. That’s a hell of a base on which to build one’s game. He’s already entrenched in the Opening Day lineup, giving him a leg up on an uber-prospect like Jackson Holliday or others needing an injury or (ahem) “defensive work” before they can earn serious playing time. Cody - Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers I have more faith in small samples. For example, my girlfriend and I haven’t gotten along historically, but the last month and a half has gone very well. I’m convinced it’s sustainable. Regardless, I, like Matt, am selecting a young Texas Rangers outfielder to win AL Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, the player I am selecting has only one first name. [Ed. note: Arguably, none. And this is now going to break my brain, so apologies in advance to both Evan Wyatt and Carter Langford for my errors.] Langford was great at Florida and has been tremendous at every minor-league level, jumping from rookie ball to Triple-A in half a season. The fourth overall selection in last year’s MLB Draft earned a spot on the Rangers' 2024 Opening Day roster. If he stays with Texas all season, there’s a real chance he will hit 30 home runs and become one of the reigning champions' primary offensive contributors. National League Awards Predictions NL MVP Matt - Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks This exercise taught me that I have a bias toward outfielders. I’m not sure what this says about me. Carroll is a lot like Rodríguez; he was shockingly good at a young age and should only get better with seasoning. He’s the platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter: a rare combination of power, excellent swing decisions, and speed mixed with the kind of “hair on fire” hustle typically only matched in vigor by a dog bolting with a recently stolen cut of steak. Carroll has two factors working against him: a truly horrendous arm that negates all of his positive defensive value and an NL loaded with extraordinary talent. He might not even end up the third-best player in his division. I’m banking on the upside, though. Cody - Francisco Lindor, New York Mets The Mets will surprise many of those who follow the sport and make the playoffs. Fellow stars Kodai Senga, Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and J.D. Martinez will play significant roles in their unexpected postseason push. Still, I think Lindor will be the driving force. Some have viewed Lindor’s three seasons with the Mets as disappointing. He's performed only 17% above league average while earning $34.1 million per season. That said, the former face of Cleveland baseball hit 31 home runs and stole 31 bases last season in 159 games played. If the 30-year-old star shortstop can replicate his 2023 campaign while guiding the potentially rejuvenated Mets to a postseason berth, the longtime beloved figure could win his first MVP award. NL Cy Young Matt - Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants Webb is what you get when you retrofit an '80s pitcher to the modern game. He’s perfectly content with allowing his infield to do the heavy lifting while he breezes through frames with fewer than 15 pitches per inning. The weirdly congested NL Cy Young race screwed him last year; he only dominated in innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio, which voters deemed less impressive than Blake Snell’s hyper-inefficient style but gaudy 2.25 ERA. I disagree. Webb’s unique workload capabilities make him a great bet to be the fallback Cy Young winner if Snell’s ERA regresses (likely) or Spencer Strider’s peripherals prove impossible to match. Cody - Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers When looking at the Dodgers' starting rotation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow jump off the page as more imminent Cy Young candidates, and rightfully so. Yamamoto signed a $12-year, $325-million deal with Los Angeles this offseason, and the organization shipped away promising young players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca for the hard-throwing Glasnow’s services. Both pitchers are incredible, and I have no doubt they will perform well. That said, Miller is slated to be the workhorse of the team’s topheavy staff, lending him the greatest opportunity to come away with the prestigious award. Miller was incredible during his 2023 rookie campaign, generating a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while sporting one of the best four-seam fastballs in MLB. Barring health, Miller could reasonably throw 170-plus innings while sporting one of the best five-pitch mixes in baseball, stuff and movement-wise. Voters could reward the young Dodger with the ultimate award for a starting pitcher in his second MLB season. NL Rookie of the Year Matt - Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates It’s unclear when Skenes will make his MLB debut, but I don’t care; he’s a stud. Skenes probably could have (and should have) been an MLB pitcher immediately following being drafted because, well, he’s a firehose of stuff built like Anthony Barr. His fastball routinely tops 100 miles per hour, and his slider may be the better pitch. Nerds will argue over his fastball shape, but—like I said before—I don’t care; he’s a stud. Cody - DL Hall, Milwaukee Brewers Despite being built more like Harrison Smith than Anthony Barr, Hall still provides incredible stuff, just not at the magnitude of the flamethrowing Skenes. Hall’s fastball averaged 95.6 MPH with the Baltimore Orioles last season, yet was a tick or two higher in the minors. Although the 25-year-old’s fastball doesn’t consistently touch 100+ MPH like Skenes, his elite release extension and flat Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) allow his heater to thrive at the top of the zone. Acquired alongside infielder Joey Ortiz and the 34th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft in the deal that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, Hall will make the Brewers' Opening Day rotation. Milwaukee loves Hall and will give him every opportunity to stay in the rotation all season. Mix his favorable situation in the 414 with a tantalizing spring performance, and the young lefty has all the makings to be the first Brewer to win Rookie of the Year since Devin Williams in 2020. Who are your picks for the major awards in each league? What did we get right or wrong? Join the debate below.

Last season, the Twins' primary first baseman was technically Joey Gallo. In 332 plate appearances, Gallo hit .177/.301/.440, swatting 21 home runs and cobbling together an above-average 104 wRC+. However, Gallo's numbers were inflated by a formidable April, wherein he hit .226/.349/.717 with seven home runs and a 182 wRC+ over 63 plate appearances. From May 1 to his final game as a member of the Twins on Sept. 5, Gallo was practically unusable, striking out 44.9% of the time and generating a subpar 85 wRC+. Gallo has since joined the Washington Nationals, striking out in over half his 27 plate appearances this spring. In response, the Twins have elected to undergo a course correction, signing the contact-skilled Carlos Santana to a one-year, $5.25-million contract. Will the team regret sacrificing power at first base and suffer an unwanted power outage from a short-sighted overcompensation? First, let's look at how the organization has approached the position and the results it has produced since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. Over the last five years, the Minnesota Twins have hit 1,037 home runs, placing them fourth in that period behind only the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers. Considering the 2019 club hit the most home runs in a season with 307 (now tied with the 2023 Braves), their being toward the top of home run leaderboards shouldn't be a surprise. Yet, how they accomplished this feat has been unorthodox. In the past four seasons, the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers have had power-hitting first basemen serve as key cogs in the middle of their power-hitting lineups. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson hit 170 home runs for Atlanta, Luke Voit and Anthony Rizzo hit 106 home runs for New York, and the trio of Freeman, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger hit 278 home runs for Los Angeles. Since 2019, the Twins' first basemen with the most home runs are C.J. Cron, with 25 in 2019, and Alex Kirilloff, with 22 from 2021 through 2023. So, where are the home runs coming from? Since Baldelli took over, the Twins have hit an abundance of long balls from traditionally power-constrained positions. Right fielder Max Kepler leads the team with 97 home runs since 2019. Middle infielder Jorge Polanco is second with 89, and center fielder Byron Buxton is third with 87. With Kepler and Buxton expected to be primary offensive contributors for the team in 2024 and the powerful, left-handed hitting Edouard Julien replacing the departed Polanco at second base, the Twins are expected to produce excess power from those three positions again. FanGraphs's STEAMER projects the triumvirate of Kepler, Buxton, and Julien to hit a combined 67 home runs in 2024. Third baseman Royce Lewis is expected to hit 28, and shortstop Carlos Correa is projected to hit 21. That said, the team's primary first baseman, Santana, is expected to hit only 15 home runs over 448 plate appearances. Santana hit 19 home runs each year in 2021 and 2022, and 23 home runs last season--his highest single-season total since hitting 34 with Cleveland in 2019. Projecting Santana to hit just 15 home runs feels like a conservative estimate of his capabilities. That said, other reputable projection systems take similar stances on the switch-hitting 37-year-old: FanGraphs's ZiPS: 17 home runs over 522 plate appearances FanGraphs's THE BAT X: 14 home runs over 486 plate appearances Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA: 14 home runs over 441 plate appearances ZiPS has the most favorable projections for "El Oso," predicting he will slug 17 dingers. Nor is Santana the only Twins first baseman expected to have modest power production in 2024. STEAMER projects backup first baseman and expected primary designated hitter Kirilloff to hit just 12 home runs over 383 plate appearances this upcoming season. As with Santana, other reputable projection systems follow suit: ZiPS: 12 home runs over 383 plate appearances THE BAT X: 10 home runs over 378 plate appearances PECOTA: 10 home runs over 335 plate appearances On average, Santana and Kirilloff are projected to hit a combined 25-27 home runs next season. The Braves' primary first baseman (Olson) is projected to hit 39 home runs between the three projection systems, the Dodgers' (Freeman) is expected to hit 26, and the Yankees' (Rizzo) is projected to hit 21. Rizzo's platoon mate, DJ LeMahieu, is expected to notch 12 to complement the veteran lefty. If the Twins really do get fewer than 30 total bombs from the players who will take the majority of the playing time at first base and DH, it's hard not to see that as a shortfall. After a one-year experiment with the strikeout-prone Gallo, the Twins appear set to rely on generating power from traditionally unconventional positions. Their center fielder, third baseman, and right fielder are projected to hit the most home runs in 2024, and neither of their first basemen are likely to reach 20. That said, the organization is making a concerted effort to cut back on strikeouts after claiming the MLB record for punchouts in a season, with 1,654. Signing Santana, trading for fellow strikeout-resistant hitter Manuel Margot, and expecting a dip in strikeout percentage (K%) from primary role players Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, Willi Castro, and Kirilloff and starters Buxton, Correa, Julien, and Lewis, the Twins are looking to deviate from the three-true-outcome offense they often were last season. Whether that approach is successful depends on Santana and Kirilloff's ability to hit for contact and let other positions generate power.