singlesoverwalks

So the Twins are now thin in center field. Assuming we don't have some legit reason to believe that Buxton is going to make 100 starts there this year, our best options are: - Willi Castro, who is good as a switch-hitting utility player, but would definitely be over-exposed as a starter, especially against right-handed starters. Bad plan. - Play Kepler in center, Wallner becomes the everyday right fielder, and call up Larnach to play left? This only works if Larnach figures it out this year, and even then, they're all lefty hitters. This is a less attractive plan than Castro. - Call up Austin Martin - an unproven right-handed bat who wasn't great in AAA last year, but can play center and second. I'd rank this as a better chance of working out than Larnach because Martin is a right-handed bat with more upside (at this point), but still not as good as Castro for a team trying to make the playoffs. -Sign a right-handed-hitting free agent. Per the Fangraphs free agent tracker, right-handed center fielders who could be had for less than $10 million per year include Michael A. Taylor (2 years, $14 million), Adam Duvall (1 year, $8 million), Randall Grichuk (cheap), and Tim? Locastro (CHEAP). This is the best plan assuming we've only got a little bit of money to spend, especially if it's one of the first two guys. - Sign Cody Bellinger. This would be a Correa-like stroke: an estimated 6 years, $144 million. Bellinger hits left-handed, but he's almost as good against lefties as righties for his career, and in 2023 he was better against lefties. This would be the Pohlads reinvesting the new TV money in the team and making the most of our window. Our world changes drastically. We start talking about trading Kirilloff for pitching. I'm hoping for this. Hope springs eternal.

The other argument for Santana is that he's a good defensive first baseman. Kirilloff gets injured a lot; we might need a qualified first baseman. He's significantly cheaper than Hoskins and Turner. Hoskins got a two-year contract; Turner was like $13.5 million. And Hoskins is a lousy defensive first baseman. Still, I, like you, would totally have taken Hoskins or Turner over Santana, but obviously they have a budget and they're sticking to it. I'm not saying the budget is good. The Pohlads should spend more money on the team. But that's been the case for 30 years, and for some reason I'm still rooting for them. It's sort of interesting to see how they spend their relatively meager salary dollars. I can't say I would count on that list of prospects do too much next year. Or ever. I hope I'm wrong! So, basically: if they've got $5.5 million to spend on a bat, spending it this way makes sense.

This makes sense if you compare Santana's OPS against left-handed pitching last year (.803) to Kirilloff's (.482) and Julien's (.447).

My question is if José Salas is any relation to Mark Salas - who, of course, hit .300 as a rookie catcher with the Twins in 1985.

Might a spot open for Larnach if Kepler needs to cover center field? Who would be ahead of him in that case? I don't think we're going to sign a Michael A. Taylor type this year.

The budget is known to be lower this year, so center field will inevitably be tabbed as a place where we have enough options: possibly Buxton if we're lucky, Kepler plus a right field replacement, someone from the minors (maybe Austin Martin?). Very scarce free agent dollars will be spent elsewhere. It's back to replacement level for center field backup.

There was plenty of room to work in a "Release the Bats" joke in the last couple paragraphs.

The bats can't take another day off tomorrow. The Twins are going to need to score some runs.

Baseball Reference link to the boxscore for Sonny Gray's great appearance against the Astros in the 2017 playoffs. And this was with the trash can. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201710170.shtml

I have some shreds of data, and I think they support this position. According to my eyeball of Baseball Reference, Verlander didn't pitch on short rest in the 2022 post-season. The last time he pitched on short rest in the post-season was in Game 4 of the 2019 ALDS. The only other other appearance I can find is in the 2017 ALDS, when he came in in relief. Here are his lines in those appearances: Short rest appearance IP H ER HR BB SO HBP 2019 ALDS - game 4 3.666667 7 4 2 3 5 0 2017 ALDS - game 4 (in relief) 2.666667 1 1 1 2 0 0 Total 6.333333 8 5 3 5 5 0 Averages over that small sample size: 7.11 ERA 7.11 SO/9 7.11 BB/9 (yes, these are all the same numbers...that's because he had 5 ER, 5 BB, and 5 SO). 4.26 HR/9 So not good! Also, he had a 7.31 ERA in the 2022 post-season. I think we're over-rating him just a bit. Good pitcher at this point in his career, yes. Peak Verlander? No he is not.

Do we know he's pitching Game 4? That would be short rest.

The Twins are going to win this series.

511/512 beats 1/512 AGAIN.

Oh yeah. Baseball is so random. Winning 4 games in a row is never "likely" - even against the two worst teams in each league.

Yep! The Twins sweeping the 4 games against the A's and Rockies seems plausible, if not likely. It would be amazing if the Mariners swept the Rangers.

Found it. Seattle wins the division in that scenario on "intradivision record." https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-postseason-tiebreaker-scenarios

It's very confusing. If Seattle finishes with 89 wins and wins the division, they are seeded #2 because they have the tiebreaker against the Twins. But if Seattle and Texas both finish with 89 wins - still possible, if Texas wins tonight, Seattle loses, and then Seattle sweeps Texas - then Texas wins the West because they have the tiebreaker against Seattle, but are seeded #3 because the Twins have the tiebreaker against them (if the Twins win out, and Houston has fewer than 89 wins). If Houston, Seattle, and Texas all finish on 89 wins, I don't know who wins the division. They each have the tiebreaker on one of the others. Houston would also be the #3 seed in that scenario if they win out.

It really seems like the Angels are not on board with this plan.

Agreed. I just can't handle the math if they aren't.

If every game is 50/50, there's a 13 in 8192 chance of this happening. Or about 0.16%, if you like percentages.

According to my calculations, as of tonight (Tuesday I think), if the Twins win all their remaining games, and Texas loses to the Angels tonight, and Seattle loses to Houston tonight, and then Seattle takes 3 of 4 in the end-of-season series vs. Texas, and Houston is no better than 3-2 for the rest of the season then the Twins get a buy for the wildcard round. 👍

I love the guy and love this picture of him with his mom and dad. Boo to the draconian immigration policies that made them wait so long.

Of course, the Twins won two games in that series, because Joe Mauer hit a clutch double down the Dome's left field line that was duly called fair by the left field umpire who was right on top of it and HAD ONE JOB.

Based on their trade deadline behavior, I'm guessing they have a moratorium on adding salary. No claims.

So if a fan from 2016 woke up from a 7-year coma a week ago, the last two series before the All-Star Break would have already told them everything they needed to know about what this team is in 2023. Two home series, one a sweep of the horrible Royals at home, the other getting swept by the upwardly mobile (but not mighty) Orioles: this is a mediocre team that certainly isn't the worst, but isn't well-led enough to build any momentum, and will punish you if you allow yourself to get emotionally invested.