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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins take on pitchers with questionable health, like a Desclafani, because they are getting them either for free, at a major discount. Disco for $4 million even if he blows out his arm will not make or break our season. For $4 million he could be a significant depth piece. I am disappointed, his spring has been slowed down, and he hasn't been able to work on his new pitches as much. This pretty much guarantees that Red Sox will be signing one of the 2 remaining big pitchers remaining and throwing more money at the problem. Damn Giolito went from guaranteed of a top dollar contract, to taking a 2 year prove it deal, to likely looking like a Paddack type pitcher you are hoping can get healthy again.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    But we should be worried we don't have a #2 . . . . . . . . This is tongue and cheek. We just need health in our starters and this has the potential to be just as strong or even slightly better than last year.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Do we though? Did Arizona have one? Did Texas have one? And are we sure we already don't have someone that could fill the void? I think I would rather have Paddack than Gray in a 1 and done playoff scenario. He did better in the postseason than Gray albeit in a different role.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Noah Miller has the potential if the bat comes along, to be a key piece in an organization. However we got an outfield and flipped prospects for someone who has a high ceiling as well but a much lower floor, as Miller could be your defensive shortstop/no bat player right now.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The team is B+, A-, Management B to B+, Front Office C- to D, The front office gave the management the freedom to sign Correa last year as a a 1 year higher salary with the realization they wouldn't have any big money for this year. I am ok with that, especially considering next year will be much higher. We have a nicely constructed team, and tons of assets on the farm. Right now, what version of Disco we get will be a big determination on this year. If we get the 2021 or early 2023 version it will be very good and if Paddack performs well be may actually have a better pitching staff than last year. However we got Disco as a throw in because of the elbow, and he was already shut down for 2 days and ramping back up. I feel good he is ramping back up, but I don't have high confidence he can get through the year.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brecht lines up with what they like, elite slider excellent fastball.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has a high ceiling but he is right around where we would take him and there would be a ton of variability. If teams see him as a reliever (a 2 pitch pitcher), Joyce was selected in the third round. It all comes down to his stats his year. He is closer to a 3 ERA he will get drafted top 10. His ERA is in the 4's he is likely a 20 to 30 pick. Its no different than last year Dollander dropping from consensus #1 pick to #9. I don't follow the draft early that much but he is definitely a player I am keeping tabs on. The draft
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It doesn't have to make it better than last year (even though it could) it just has to make it better than it currently is. He is an option that has the ability to not only to hold up if called upon, but possibly excel. I love Miller more than most think he was turning it around, however we got a prospect that is currently at a similar level rank wise as Miller with a much higher offensive ceiling. It a real question who is the better prospect. This trade is going to be determined by luck and whether either one is able to get to the big leagues.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He's not lost his stuff just isn't quite good enough or deceptive enough to be a strikeout machine. He becomes a much more effective pitcher if he can limit the amount of balls put in play and remove some variability of babip. He is a solid #3 or #4 pitcher if healthy with potential of #2 type results. For $4 million its worth the risk.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is an effective Major leaguer if his velocity on the fastball is between 93 and 94.5. I do question if he loses much deceptiveness with the different arm slot or not. I don't think it will. I think the increased velocity, with his pitch mix will pay dividends.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Desclafani has some things to work on but he knows it. Im hoping one of the pitches click. I think you have a 4 ERA player with out a swing and miss pitch. I think you have a #2 pitcher if he can find that strike out pitch. “I’m trying to dial in a swing-and-miss pitch,” DeSclafani said. “I think that’s something I’m in desperate need of.” In that regard, he’s toying with two new offerings that he has workshopped this offseason: a new sweeper that won’t replace his cutter but aim to act as more of a swing-and-miss pitch, and a split changeup with more depth to replace his traditional changeup, which got a paltry 15% whiff rate last season. It’s been a mixed bag so far, with the quality of those pitches worse in camp than they had been during his offseason development, DeSclafani said.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am saying something fundamentally changed with Miller last full. No different than I think something fundamentally changed with Kepler last fall as well. The difference with Miller was his zone discipline improved immensely. He began walking much more, improving batting average, and beginning to get a tad more power. His OBP in July through August were .321, .354, .365. That is a player that is showing improvement. Now it is A+ ball. Understood. He is also 21, no offense I don't care what he did as an 18 an 19 year old. I care what he is going to do. He had a .648 OPS last year. His first 3 months he had an OPS of .550. His last 3, had an OPS of .750, and if you looked at just his last 2 months he had an OPS of .790. In the majors really only needs to be a low .700 number or high .600. However, yes I do see where he could be an .800 guy.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I don't agree with that take. He had .823 OPS in August of last year and effectively helped lead the team to the championship last year. The question is can he continue to improve is plate discipline as he did last year. An .800 OPS player with his defense is a very valuable piece.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    NM
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This trade bites us if Miller becomes a competent bat. I personally think he does. However if you were going to trade him, this is the year after the fall he had. It appears you picked up a similar prospect so effectively Margot as a throw in for a year. So it comes down to who is the better prospect - Miller or Doncon. Doncon is younger, but likely a better bat, but Miller can be your no bat defensive utility player now. He has the chance of developing to be slightly below average bat with elite defense. From what it appears Dodgers were instigating this trade to open a spot for Kike. So ultimately I think the Twins got the better end of this trade. Will have to wait and see.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Damn, that sucks. Said it many times I really liked Noah Miller. Margot is a decent backup outfielder. Hopefully Doncon shows something. I don't know much about him other than he is 20 years old. Curious where he would rank in our prospect rankings.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    At the same token what did he say??? Nothing about a specific person, he said we are not in the market for 30 million/year players. We are looking at less expensive options. In a nutshell that is what was stated. They have no case since he did not call out a specific player. At best a minor fine. They will just say, don't do that again, I was on the right track on saying we will look at any opportunity and then just blurted out No LOL.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Im wondering if this is a AAA signing.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Thats a nice gamble for the marlins.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ive been following mariners podcast since the trade. They have stated effectively, nothing was off the table, but they did not want to trade their starting 5. They have loved their offseason with constraints that were very similar to the Twins.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brody Brecht, Hawkeye, currently a top 15-25 prospect is a player I am going to be watching that could be someone the Twins target. Fastball gets up to 102, very very good slider and then questionable control. He went 6 innings yesterday against auburn 2 runs, 11 SO. 60 strikes in 100 pitches. Better than his slightly better than 50% strike rate in his first outing. He is one that could climb into the top 10, but I think 20-30 range is where he ends up.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Everything I read was they had no intention of trading either unless a severe overpay and they could use it to help this years team. Their strength is SP, they wanted to keep that up, and fill in their lineup through other maneuvers.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Twins received close to Miller value with the pieces they got. There could be potential upside on Desclafani, Gonzalez and Bowen. Topa is more than fairly valued in the trade simulator in my opinion. For the Twins to get Miller they would have had to give up more than just Polanco. However I am fine with the Twins aiming high.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Sorry Semantics. 2nd year for me is 2025. And just helping out in a Varland role. Varland if stays a starter will fill in Desclafani's spot. Then Festa would move up.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I hate the same tired argument, the SP is so much worse without Maeda and Gray. Maeda was an arm last year and nothing more and was injured for part of it. Gray, performance wise was great, W-L can be achieved relatively easily with better offensive production. Paddack is looking good again. I am cautiously optimistic on Desclafani. If he is the early 2023 version or the 2021 version he is obviously moving the needle. The new pitches don't look great in spring training so far. I think he can give us what Maeda gave us last year, and we have Varland to fill in when need be. Festa is 2 years away from helping us is my best guess.
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