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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    You compared Joe Benson to the outfielders that were starting. Benson did not have to be better than the starters to make the roster, he needed to be better than one of the Miami reserves. They were all replacement level. The hurdle to be a 4/5 outfielder on most rosters is not that high. Most rosters. However, the hurdle for Benson was too high in Atlanta as he was not placed on the 25 man roster
  2. The Wise One
    He did not have crack the lineup. What was the total fwar for the reserves? They were all replacement level
  3. The Wise One
    Spring training stats are meaningless unless the fan needs to use them to make their point. Defensive skills matter until they do not. Bryant will not hit for a season like he is this spring. An OPS of .750-800 is not out of the question. The question is how much will his defense cost?
  4. The Wise One
    Some thoughts Yes it is hard for a young athlete in poor areas to get noticed. Yet they do other sports. Sure it would be nice to fund them so they do get noticed young. Being good when you are young might not mean much later. As long as there is the chance to play somewhere it will sort itself out. You don't get a college scholarship for being good in the little leagues. The baseball tomorrow funds is less than 2 million per year of projects Using those funds for individual players would mean you would have to set up and sort an aplications system for grants and the like. At between 5-10000 a year for the traveling team cost per player I doubt these funds would really change the situation for poor kids playing baseball. Paying minor leaguers more will not encourage players to play baseball. It will make the player's life better, but no one is looking at milb as a career option as a player. Not even Drew Butera Jr, whom I do not believe is even conceived. Minor leagues are the path to the show. Read Fienstiens book..
  5. The Wise One
    1977. Had the tickets to go to the Gopher-Michigan game. Sat in Coffman playing cards with the some people. Not even going can be worse than leaving early
  6. The Wise One
    Got to love that they have the ageless wonder Steve Lombardozzi. Bur seriously, they pick up cast offs, but generally they discover why they were let go. What they steal in trade from the Twins they have kept
  7. The Wise One
    League average OPS for the NL pitcher was .312. Only a fewstarting pitchers in the NL had an OPS over .500
  8. The Wise One
    Carlton, Baylor , Schatzeder, Niekro and Salvatore all had negative bwar with the Twins in 1987. As such, they can be forgetable as Tom Nieto.
  9. The Wise One
    The average legth of a baseball career is under 5 years in baseball. For every Carlos Beltran, Matt Holiday or Tim Hudson there are going to be 3-4 players with short careers. The initial success of a player and the subsequent decline once the holes are found in the player's game. So fangraphs may not find the peak in pllayers because the effect of the short time survivor is more than they accounted for. If you are looking at a decline curve for players you would have to look at only those players with a career length greater than average because that is the kind of player you would hope Dozier and Plouffe to be.
  10. The Wise One
    While there is plenty of negativity about a 90+ loss team, the constantant negativity about anything the Twis have done over the years since Ryan started is enough to drive people away. Winnig wil not cure that as the" but the Twins haven't won anything but crummy Central division titles" crowd dominate the board
  11. The Wise One
    The question in part is about defense saving runs. Kansasa City was considered a best defense. Once again, I am not comparing Kansas City to the Twins. The best defense by metrics did not save the most runs by metrics so it is impossible to say if an improved defense will save you runs. What is probable is that Ervin Santana is going to be a better pitcher for 200 innings than Kevin Correia and Sam DeDuno.. In the event he is injured one would hope that Alex Meyer or by pitching history Milone would be better than Yohan Pino and the rest. 2 statistics to compare in relation to the Twins and KC WHIP for the clubs were 1.35 vs 1.31 LOB % 68.9 vs 73.9 Kansas City did a better job of leaving the same number of base runners on base. Twins pitching up the big innings would seem to indicate that could be as much a cause for the disparity. I can't find anywhere where some has correlated any of the team defensive metrics to ERA, They theorize, but no analytic proof.
  12. The Wise One
    I was not comparing Minnesota to KC. Kansas City is touted as having the best defense . When tou look at numbers it does not add up to runs saved. With a superior defense their BABIP should be better, than league average. I don't care what it is in relatiuon to the Twins. Better defense should lead to less hits than average on hte balls that are out there. There LD% was about league average. If it were higher than league average then the excuse for the average BABIP would be that the pitchers were giving up more balls that could more easily be hits. What they do in relation to the Twins is meaninglesds to the argument. That is why I NEVER mentioned any Twins statistics in my point, There was no error made because I never was comparing Twins to Royals as an explanation of how things might work. I did not address the Twins. Hopefully this year there will not be the 500 ininngs of pitching done by pitchers who will not be members of the Twins. Hopefully Nolasco will not be the pitcher he was last season. Hopefully whatever pitcher was needed turns in better performances than what they got from their AAA callups. That alone could be the biggest difference in outcomes forthe pitching numbers.
  13. The Wise One
    Milone at 27 is so old for a ballplayer. Ervin Santana appears to look likke he is 16 rather than have pitched for that many years. In all seriousness, I hope what there is taking place is a talent movement. No looking at someone else's reject to replace one of your players somewhere.
  14. The Wise One
    I do not think the math manipulators know the answer to your question. Fangraphs lists Kansas City as having the best defense. It should stand to reason that if your defense is the best they should be getting to more balls than the other teams do. BABIP then should be somewhat effected by defense as it is a measurement of what happens when the pitched ball hits neither the catcher's nor a fan's mitt. KC's was league average. Their LD% was league average. LD being usually the hardest ball to catch, KC had no more nor less than the opponents. Their BABIP was league average for their pitchers. If superior defense led to less hits, BABIP should be lower. There is FIP. fielding independent pitiching. ERA would then be fielding dependent, KC's had a better ERA than FIP as would be expected. Their differetnial though was only 9th best. A good defense is better than a bad defense. The teams that had better ERAs than FIPS were generally the better teams. The Tigers were an exception. How many runs will it cost to have a bad OF defense. There are theories. Not sure if you can prove how it had an effect on the outcome
  15. The Wise One
    Tonkin 25 games Pressly 25 games Logan Darnell 24 IP Bang
  16. The Wise One
    Stauffer had a known shoulder injury coming out of college. That would have an effect on his ranking and evidently his career Stauffer Signs With Padres Despite Injury By Will Kimmey August 15, 2003 Padres scouting director Bill Gayton said Tim Stauffer's makeup was one of the deciding factors when the organization used the fourth overall pick on the Richmond righthander in June. It's already paying dividends for the Padres. Stauffer and his agent, Ron Shapiro, alerted the organization during contract negotiations about a weakness in his shoulder before agreeing to a bonus of less than $1 million Thursday.
  17. The Wise One
    Ervin Santana is the old man of the staff at 32. 5 of the 10 pitchers over 30 last year are gone. I wouldn't bet Kris Johnson (29) will be back, Swarzak (28) is gone. Adding 2 32 year olds is not making the staff older in comparison to what they jettisoned
  18. The Wise One
    By Baseball America Stauffer was the 4th best prospect of the Padres after being drafted, 5th best after he played a year, then fell out of the top 10. He never made Baseball America's top 100 in those years. Only one Padre did. At best he was the 104 best prospect. With a B- grade, very highly doubt he even cracked a top 200 list. He was the 4th pick in 2003. Delmon was first followed by Richie Weeks then Kyle Sleeth.
  19. The Wise One
    If there was a year theat Quentin was not injured? Why trade for one player that will cause you to ultimately need another?
  20. The Wise One
    Volquez for Shields vs Santana for Correia that alone might ofset Hunter's defense versus Gordon, though they do not play the same position in the outfield
  21. The Wise One

    Cuba

    The Wise One replied to JB_Iowa's topic in Other Baseball

    I think that why the ad campaign works could be found in the attitude shown that you find it amusing. Also add Mike's poor choice of word that show a similar attitude that Europeans and the rest of the world want to avoid
  22. The Wise One
    While people chimed in about confirming what they thought about age in this article, they missed that these later in the draft choices produced a better warp than most systems.
  23. The Wise One
    The contributions to the team from a Herman or a Nunez in the outfield would be not an issue if the Twins find a MLB starter outfielder. Sierra would make a fine AAA outfielder. Why waste time looking for players that should be playing minimal innings like a 5th outfielder/3catcher
  24. The Wise One
    They made it to the majors yet the teams are waiving them. Red flag
  25. The Wise One
    The union could collectively bargain for milb players to get more. IIRC bonus money for the drafted players used to be more as well as the international players. So much for the union.
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