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The Wise One

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  1. The Wise One
    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/peak_age_by_length_of_career/ http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/the_ten_year_aging_curve/ Different researchers different things. The drop off comes later for better players. Of note, The decline that older players show from year to year comes from the fatigue through the year, Decline for Plouffe is less likely to be significant by other research until around 33. Decline should hardly be a factor in deciding to extend him. Given that Frese, a 2 war player couldn't get but 3m a year and only now, it should put to rest why Plouffe was not tradeable
  2. The Wise One
    If your upside is mediocrity, what difference does it make.
  3. The Wise One
    Try reading the data on the aging curve of 10 year players with 5000 PA. If Plouffe is that kind of player, the decline will not be pronounced until 34.
  4. The Wise One
    Isn't Meyer going to be the shut down reliever? Sooner or later, a reliever is going to be ROY, might as well be Meyer
  5. The Wise One
    There is a higher likelihood of a second TJ than getting a first. That Hughes has pitched more major league innings than Gibson is a reflection of not being a college pitcher, not having TJ, and does not mean that he is more prone to wearing out faster than Gibson would.
  6. The Wise One
    Over the last two years there were 100 pitchers that managed to pitch 250 innings. Kyle Gibson is one of them. By WAR he ranks 45. There probably some variability over the years but I don not think it is unreasonable To think Gibson maintaining his current pitching would be considered a number 2 starter. What is that worth? These figures are from spotrac. Some of you might need a barf bag for these numbers. Coming in at number 24 in salary per year for a starting pitcher, Ervin Santana Tied for 33, Nolasco Number 50 is Hughes, Gibson would slot somewhere between Hughes and Santana So after you figure out is Gibson the Read Deal you then would have to figure what to pay. Wade Miley got 3/18 to buy out his arb years and 12m option plus incentives versus a you are a bust buyout. That would be your basis. For Gibson then there is the question of security versus better payday. If I were Gibson I would take security.
  7. The Wise One
    Market conditions vary from year to year, and throughout the season. The trouble with this winter was with a contending team needing a third base guy. There were none where Plouffe would be an upgrade except for maybe Boston. Plouffe had 2 seasons of decent production, but not so great that he is a got to have player, except for the Twins. The Twins did not have many players playing at the got to have level. Plouffe was closest. People may say to move him, what I would ask them is where to. Extend? Depends on how this year goes. A decline in the offensive numbers he might not be worth the extention
  8. The Wise One
    Sarcasm. The imagine comment I thought was more than enough of a clue to not take it seriously.
  9. The Wise One
    Every player has a cost to develop/procure. Do you count 1/2 of Ben Revere's signing bonus against Trevor May's contract? It cost Revere to get him. When does Sano's bonus cost count against his contracts? How about the costs of developing and scouting? It cost money against operating costs to get Park. He is still only paid 12 million. for 4 years.
  10. The Wise One
    Last high level prospect Ryan traded was? Low level prospects, for filler, I can't recall him trading any prospect that he thought had a chance. Bill Smith was different. If Ryan was going to move an outfielder I think Arcia would get moved before Kepler.. Arcia, Plouffe and Nolasco to the first team that loses a starter for the season or that team's two better prospects. (What would a thread that had the word trade in it without a Nolasco or Plouffe proposal in it. As long as the imagination quotient is high, remember that a spot will also have to be made for AB Walker by midseason)
  11. The Wise One
    4 year contract for 12 million equals 3 million a year. When he hits 25HR with an OPS of 820 he will not be a be a 3 million a year player, but that is what he will be paid on average
  12. The Wise One
    When the Mauer contract is done there will be plenty of money. Morneau came off the books, they signed pitchers. Nolasco comes of the books, there is some money. Grienke showed the team does not have to be a winner nor even really look like it is going to be a winner. Phoenix is not a large market. Not to insult Chief, but how to you convince anyone to live in 100 degree weather? Must have been one heck of a sales job. The Twins have to sell players on the franchise a little better
  13. The Wise One
    From your post. Park needs to be a 25-35 HR guy with a .820-.880 OPS From your own post. The range of hitter he needs to be. Do I need to old the .880 and 35? If he isn't what he needs to be, then is that not a failure? .820 bare minimum for a DH. If Only 40 players could manage an .820 OPS. I was looking only at the players who qualified for batting titles. After all, it has been said that a 3 million dollar a year player should not be a part time player. So counting the players, including the pitcher, is bogus.
  14. The Wise One
    .880 ops? Top 15 hitter or he is a failure. .820, top 40 hitter or a failure. 35 HR, top 15 in home runs, 25 top 30. or a failure. Tough crowd for a player earning less than league average salary. Sano was the only Twin with a couple hundred at bats last year to OPS greater than .760. If Park produces 20 hr and an OPS over .750, people will be happy ani
  15. The Wise One
    If he has the same attitude about playing outfield as Delmon did it will be a bad move. He has to be driven to play well in the field regardless of where he plays otherwise he become a DH. If the group forms a social bond, that would improve things. Most of the outfielders are young and Hispanic. It would add to the chemistry
  16. The Wise One
    post 41 Posted 23 February 2016 - 08:44 PM If Park is only as good as Collabello then that is not a good signing It is not unreasonable to think you did not think much of Collabello's hitting on the basis of that post. Sconnie jumped in when I reminded you of what Collabello hit while playing for Toronto.
  17. The Wise One
    Did not say that you should platoon Park. If he hits s well as Collabello did last year it will be a good signing. If he hit like Collabello did injured, it will be a bad signing. In the end, you will not know for a couple of years how good or bad the signing was. 3 war over 4 years to make it a good signing
  18. The Wise One
    Never said to spend 12 mil on Collabello. . Only said he was a pretty good hitter, unlike Dave. Minor league OPS over .900 2015 was what it was. For 2014 there was this post over a year ago Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes that Chris Colabello played with an injury through most of 2014. He has nerve damage in his right thumb. He exchanged text messages with Chris Colabello's agent and quoted a Colabello from a local newspaper article. The injury apparently happened on April 23 against Tampa Bay, but he said he was hitting so well and taking good at bats that he didn't want out of the lineup. Commendable, but we have seen so often what happens when injuries linger. Are his 2015 numbers his peak? Probably, it is not a bad peak. Proper use, more than likely. Collabello is not an everyday player. If Park hits like that it is a good signing by the Twins. Like Collabello in 2013, Park may have a few growing pains. If he continues to hit like Collabello did in 2013 or injured, then it is a bad signing. If he grows into the hitter that Collabello was, it would be a bargain signing.
  19. The Wise One
    Sell high on Dozer. Walker brought back a middle to late rotation pitcher in a trade. That there War number says Dozier is better than Walker. The bat numbers say Walker is better. The Twins need better than a mid rotation starter. Dozier is not going to get a number 2 without a package deal. He could fetch a B+ prospect or two. that does nothing for the short termm Polanco? OBP machine perhaps. More of a potential leadoff hitter. That has value. If production=HR, no Polanco can't replace Dozier. If production = 101 WRC+ then it is possible for Polanco to exceed Dozier.
  20. The Wise One
    It means that you will work until you are 70 because you will have to feed your habit. Yu might not be able to do that retired. Those 10-11 years will go by quickly
  21. The Wise One
    How many times is there a rumor on there about a Twin's player being traded? Around deadline time there is speculation. Not so much in the off season. The last two trades of regular position players were Span and Revere. Not much of a peep before they happened. Please free to correct, but the last trade of a regular before those two was Hardy The point of the OP, which usually gets forgotten about at point on a thread, was about showing your work. Sorry, but perpetuating idle speculation that conversations they think have not happened is old when the track record is considered. TR is very good about being silent in the off season of who he trades or who he signs as a free agent for that matter, The inactivity of the "rumor mill" is no sign of anything when it comes to TR. Name a logical team for Plouffe to go to. Is there a contender with a 3b significantly worse than Plouffe? That should be another clue as to why Plouffe's name is not in the print. There is not a team that would gain from having him as a 2 year plan. At 7m for this year, he is not worth it for a rebuild team to take unless they only have to give up a power pitcher that throws a straight fastball.
  22. The Wise One
    Show your work. What is your proof they had no discussions with anyone. What GM talks about people they want to trade before it happens. Is it totally unreasonable to think that a GM would keep quiet about shopping a player. Since you think he should have been traded or shopped, what team did you expect him to go to? The team called idunno?
  23. The Wise One
    Your all are not inclined to show your work for your claims that you make. Take the Plouffe trade. A few thousand posts that Plouffe should have been traded. Freese is still unsigned. Other 3b just a little below signed for baseball minimal wages. Who is going to give anything for him. Mythical trades hat you were upset that did not happen, yet if Plouffe were traded for a class A B prospect and a prayer there would be whining about Ryan getting fleeced. Refuse to show why what you say is plausible. It makes it more believable..
  24. The Wise One
    2013 according to ESPN the second best starter was Nolasco with Jiminnez rated better than him. . Hughes was an upside signing that the base says the team should do but cannot acknowledge it has happened. 2014 Santana was ranked as the sixth best pitcher. Time will tell if the Twins made a decent decision or not were the right ones or not. Not for the last 2 years. Bold moves. To get something you have to give up something. Gordon and Gonslaves for Kazmir at the deadline. Good trade or bad. Berrios, Polanco , Kepler and since it was at the deadline last year, Duensing for Giles? Takes something to get something. There was a lot of consternation about what Ryan gave up for Jepson. Imagine what the uproar would be over giving up top prospect for a rental player or a player that gets injured.
  25. The Wise One
    Spielman has been in charge since 06. No Superbowl wins. By many of the posters, shouldn't he be fired by now? Fletcher been there since 09. No Stanley Cups. not even close. Bold tough choices? I see nothing that is bold or tough. Moving up or down and trading draft picks is something that Ryan can't do. Salary cap sports team offer a different scenario than baseball. Completely different rules. Football contracts are not guaranteed Nolasco would have been cut if he were a football player. In the end you can argue outcomes. So what is the big deal about undefined bold moves when the outcome for these moves is really no different. than what Ryan did before he retired the first time.
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