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The Wise One

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Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    Duufey, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Jorge, Romero. Buxton, Kepler, Sano Dozier, Nick Gordon, Rosario Chagois, Burdi, Flip a coin depending on Granite or Palka. They are not going to take Mauer, any starting pitcher, anybody with an injury history. Whoever would be taken would be like the 29/30 pick
  2. The Wise One
    I would also add for you that the pitchers added by the Twins through trades, rule v and released from other teams that played from 2003-2013 have combined WAR as Twins of 80 and 43.3 for position players. The game is a team game, more than just the All Stars.
  3. The Wise One
    With the slotting system the high round hs students still have little leverage. The decision comes down to betting how much you could rise in college versus how much you could drop.
  4. The Wise One
    Depends on timing. San Diego gave up Maybin and parts to get Kimbrel and a 45 million dollar debt. Boston on the other hand had to give up 2 top 100 prospects along with 2 decent ones.
  5. The Wise One
    The methodology of your study is flawed. If you can't stand criticism, don't post. There is no need to post a counter study to prove your method is flawed. Adding Nathan's and Liriano's WAR to the totals and the difference in WAR per year on average is about 3. Again, what you can't claim is that it makes a difference.
  6. The Wise One
    In an attempt to look at prospects missed on versus prospects you found that others missed on, wouldn't it be better to compare those types of players gained and lost? Yup the team lost Jesse Crain. He was not a prospect anymore. He was a free agent and chose to leave. He cited that he wanted to be a closer. The team traded JJ Hardy, It was a bad trade, but trade none the less. He was not released, the same for Gomez. At what point is a player no longer a prospect? Subjectivity says whatever the person deems. That Kershaw feller is one heckofa prospect, eh? I would also contend that Mays, Nathan and Liriano were given up on by their team. Mays, like Ortiz, was traded for a fading veteran. You generally wouldn't trade an All Star for a fading vet. A J was a decent catcher, but not worthy of 2 All Stars. Choose your narrative to fit your objective regardless of reality.
  7. The Wise One
    Players playing well is always good for the team. Will it cause extensions to happen? Doubt it. If Suzuki the best option that is available, he will get a contract
  8. The Wise One
    Needs of other teams and how these players fit on their team will determine the market. For it to be a good deal it the other team should be a buyer looking rather than Ryan pimping. I am not sure why half of the teams would bother with these players, but strange things do happen at the trade deadline
  9. The Wise One
    Why would you chose a subjective measure that does not entail the catch or release of prospect status players or released players in discussing prospects. There are also how many seasons your difference on average would have made a difference? One. So the horror of it all, it did not impact the final outcme
  10. The Wise One
    The Twins released Logan Wade. He is only 24. Does somebody in the front office not know that he still good develop? The fans will clamor how could the FO be so dumb
  11. The Wise One
    Perkins does not want to be one those people earning money for nothing. It is commendable. There are all to many entitled people.
  12. The Wise One
    The number keeps increasing. Arcia is 4 years younger. So what. Are the Twins supposed to keep him on the roster for 4 years until he grows up and then decide what to do with him. Arcia is a year older than Trout. He is far behind Trout in terms of hitting ability. Joey Votto by age 25 was receiving MVP votes. How many more comps based in fantasyland should I make to show you there is absurdity in comparing Arcia to Cruz . Find someone who strikes out as much as Arcia does and walks as little as opposed to a batter that strikes out nowhere near as much and drew a lot more walks. Find someone who was in the major leagues at the same age. Compare similar. Maybe somebody like Mike Hessman
  13. The Wise One
    At no point in time as a major league ball player did Cruz have a K% approaching 30%, If you are trying to make a case try to compare similar players at similar points in their career. Arcia is not even remotely similar to Cruz because he will never hit with a 30-40% K rate. Again, this has nothing to do with the front office and everything to do with a player. It is really disingenuous to make it about the front office when I did not bring up the front office.
  14. The Wise One
    Defend that Arcia was given and chance and failed.? Defender of what else?. Imagery in someone else's mind is not something I can do anything about. Arcia is responsible for the results of Arcia's talent. The effort to get better was not there and he has gone backwards in three years. Reality. Deal with it rather than post imaginary ideas of what the poster was thinking. Nothing to show for spending money on a prospect. They added 40 draft picks. With your logic they should only sign the ones that will be star players lest they waste money on raw talent. Twisted logic on your part
  15. The Wise One
    What is Kepler or Grossman's ceilings? Arcia's ceiling is pretty much 25-30HR and the inability to play defense. Batting .200 with that many HR and no ability defense when playing defense will net you very little value for a full season of war. Gattis played 11 games in lf last year, hit almost 30 hr and almost hit .250 for a sum total of 0 WAR. Arcia was beaten out by 2 players
  16. The Wise One
    Milone is not 30 yet. A couple of good starts and maybe Duquette will come calling. Luhnow might think he is the missing piece.
  17. The Wise One
    Dean has options so he was optioned, not DFA.
  18. The Wise One
    This thread puts the Joe Benson thread to shame. More than 100 AB and a 40% K rate. 31% K rate for a career. A team that picks him up has to not only teach him plate discipline but also how to use a glove. In 5 years and 4 organizations later, when what the coaches are telling him finally sinks in, it will of course be all the Twins' fault.
  19. The Wise One
    In regards to Shields Trade him to Pittsburgh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  20. The Wise One
    A K% of 40% for the year and 31% career K% really diminishes the significance of a league high LD %. The best contact that Arcia is making with a bat is with air or his shoulder. Arcia is on the team for potential. They will still give him this year or maybe even next two to develop. Like Gardenhire was alleged to do, Molitor is not appearing to be a development sort of manager. You do have to ask has Arcia worked at improving his fielding. If the answer yes, but it doesn't take much to be better than a butcher, the you need to figure that Arcia might be the 4th best DH in the system
  21. The Wise One
    Is pitching from the stretch a skill? Is pitching with runners on base a skill? If not, then Nolasco has simply had bad luck for 9 straight years. If they are a skill and one that Nolasco does poorly, they don't show up in FIP or xFIP and those measures don't represent his pitching skill well. And what if pitching in the stretch is not the problem? Give you a hint, given his mediocre LOB%, you assessed the problem with Nolasco. Is it an unfixable problem? The Twins obviously did not think so. So if Fielding Independent Pitching is an unreliable measure of skill then why are the sites using it? Congratulations, as you point out the limitations of FIP, XFIP, SIERRA et al, you also manage to show why WAR is a useless stat also.
  22. The Wise One
    FIP is to measure skillset. Nolasco's ERA has been higher than fip suggesting that the skills are better the results
  23. The Wise One
    One has to remember the preceding years chaos of a pitching staff the years preceding these signings. Signing 3/5 of a rotation was a sign that one did not expect more than 3 of your own pitchers to develop into a success. Surplus value on Milone? At his peak Milone would bring back a filler player or a high risk, high reward player. Nothing has changed. May is not the type of pitcher the Twins trade.
  24. The Wise One
    Yet after 500 innings one would not say that Nolasco's ERA and FIP or xFIP have normalized. It has not normalized after 1000 innings. In Miami he had a career fip of 3.8. It would not be unreasonable to think one could "fix" why there was a difference. It wasn't like he was considered scrap heap before joining the Twins. There were a couple better options, there were a lot worse options that received similar contracts.
  25. The Wise One
    Which to everyone's chagrin was what was available at that time, too
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