JD-TWINS

Outside of the Dodgers & Seattle…..who are these 3 pitchers on one staff that are OBVIOUSLY better than the Twin’s top 3? Statistically, when Ryan went down the Twins were in the mix for a top 3, many of Lopez good innings/starts came in August & shortly after that timing & that boosted his place on the list. Texas has some nice names that are on the 40 man but they don’t pitch much. Pittsburgh is in the come with their top 3. Maybe there’s another one or two?

I disagree in general but can’t argue that it’s some major strength. Ryan’s health is the biggest question mark for me. I don’t see Paddack in the rotation ……… traded, or he’s the “upgrade” in the Pen. Not going to look it up but SWR must have started 25 games in ‘24……,to me, he’s a reasonable #4/#5 guy & I think he proved that…..ran out of gas last 4-5 starts. I like Festa. Don’t see a real downside having him slotted #5/#4 in the rotation. After a Top 5, Team will be in a similar spot to most clubs, they’ll have to rely on unproven young guys to back fill…….not too many Teams outside of Seattle - L.A. have a long string of quality starters 1-5 plus a few.

Definitely, if he earns a spot!! My contention is an organization doesn’t promote a guy to get seasoned at the MLB level unless they are rebuilding, i.e. the Brewers when Yount was 19 OR if they have Machado, Tatis, Boegarts, Kim, & Profar to carry the offensive load. To me the Twins are in a win now mode……all the rostered guys need to be competent to produce. Being enamored with the new shiny toy in the minors with great stats at High A or AA or wherever, can’t drive how a team tries to win in the season that’s 4 months ahead. I’m talking in generalities here, not just about Emma. 30 organizations have AAA teams for a reason and development (polishing for the Show) is at least 75% of AAA function. Skipping that is not prudent in my opinion. If he tears the cover off and hits a handful of curves/sliders hard in Spring Training, give him a shot.

If Teams want guys to be superstars they should jump AAA? That seems to be a pretty out of the norm thinking. MLB isn’t a place to season guys because they’ve been hyped in an organization…….Lee is a great example. Not a huge Lee guy myself…….TEAM needs to win games not focus on creating superstars by letting them practice an an everyday line-up spot. A guy that has serious potential flaws in his approach at the plate in lower levels (doesn’t swing enough to keep MLB pitchers honest & struggles with breaking balls) needs to work on things and have success of some sort relative to those flaws before coming to the Show.

I don’t understand the logic behind a 22 year old not gaining value in spending 2-5 months at AAA. The guy had 200 plus AB’s in ‘24. IMO, he needs to gain experience AND play a couple months straight without getting hurt. He doesn’t hit off speed stuff well per the post. Just doesn’t seem like a guy who is near ready for the Show. I really don’t see where he would play the first couple months while he’s practicing his hitting approach in the Bigs? He doesn’t displace any of the current 3 options. He needs AB’s and repetition and guidance before he starts dealing with MLB pitchers every day.

BTW - free agent 1B, coveted by many around baseball, Christian Walker is 6’0” and he seems pretty good defensively at 1B!……..Keaschall is 6’0” as well.

So, I agree with you that the article reads that he may not be optimal at 1B……..however, this year’s Gold Glove winner, Carlos Santana is 5’11” & 210lb while Keaschall is a “short” 6’0” & 190 lb. Seems like he’d have the athleticism to be fine at 1B. I thought he got to St. Paul before having surgery……..sounds like Best Case for Twins debut may be August. Bummer. I was hoping he may be at 2B or 1B daily by end of June. Just hope he’s healthy and can actually compete by mid-February!

I like the current Pen potential. Paddack, to me, is a great fit and has the mentality to throw 75 innings over 45-50 appearances. That fits his innings capabilities over a season, with good stuff in essentially every outing. $7.5M is worthwhile for a bridge guy to get from beginning of 6th through 7th. I’d seriously consider, if budget cannot change, trading Duran with other pieces to get a BAT. Jax - closer…….bigger $$ value going forward so he forgets the “2nd chance as starter” whim! Alcala - Blewett - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Tonkin - Topa - Varland (3 guys are hurt - 2 guys don’t perform - still have 8 solid guys) ……….. Canterino - Prielipp if healthy later in Summer ………. Raya in late August out of Pen as well……. if they can keep Duran and get a serious BAT by other means this Pen is elite! Without Duran the Pen is still very solid!!

It’s kind of like reversing the DH rule. Player’s Union likes all the arms that get a chance to throw as hard as they can for as long as they can ……..once they sign a deal they get paid if they are pitching or recovering from Tommy John or whatever surgery may be needed. I like the better “pitcher” mentality and more starter innings via pitching smart and not max effort…….don’t see “staffs” reverting to this. Maybe one guy on every other staff through baseball - 15 guys.

No real positive with increasing fastball usage. He’s already at a % that can allow or induce the opponent to just sit on his fastball. Very few pitchers can get by with just stuff……deception, pitch mix, and surprise are very important. If Ryan or anyone starts throwing nearly 60% of one pitch it’s going to be a problem…….at least for a starter.

Ceiling seems to be driving the ranking! He was an 18 year old Low A pitcher, so #4 seems like a stretch unless he was dominant. He wasn’t. Prospects are all guesses until they perform in the Show…….i.e. Brooks Lee. Let’s give him to July of ‘26 to see how he’s doing ……. he’ll be 20. Certainly no reason to hate on him nor doubt his potential. Quite a few guys have command issues at 18…..walks not a big deal.

You tender everyone except Tonkin - no big surprise. Never, ever thought I would consider trading Lewis or Duran. Lewis, in ‘25, is too high of a ceiling guy and still very inexpensive. Duran though, I think, if moved with one of the current catchers, might help get back a real Catcher with youth and either defensive or offensive upgrades over whichever guy goes in trade. I push for an infield of Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis………between Kesschall and Lewis, I don’t care who plays 1B or 2B. Seems to me Keaschall has arm problems so it may fit him? Lewis has the size & offensive profile at 1B with leg issues - so maybe him? This infield may not come together until June. Lee is the best defensive fit at 3B…..maybe needs to square up offense in St. Paul?! In the meantime, Miranda and Julien can play 3B - 2B as needed. These moves reduce the need to sign an expensive guy at 1B…….. focus on Catcher upgrade and ride with current Staff. Duran - Castro - Jeffers - Paddack - Matthews - Julien are the trade pieces in my mind. Catcher in trade and maybe a real BAT in the OF as a FA after shedding salary? PEN: (assuming Duran traded) Headrick - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Paddack (if kept) - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Blewett - Moran - Funderburk - (maybe) Tonkin ……….Canterino - Prielipp - Raya all late summer adds potentially…….Paddack’s innings capabilities seem to fit the Bullpen……he could be a key bridge guy there over 45-50 appearances & 75 innings.

2024 comps: WHIP 1.294 1.245 ERA 4.17 5.00 Innings 133 66 GS 28 16 $$ in ‘25 $800K $8.6M W-L 5-5 3-6 SO/BB 2.44 2.64 WAR. 2.00. .90 Age. 22 yrs. 26 yrs Luzardo is on the right……better stuff & ceiling is a given! Health, age, & cost……results……...I’ll keep SWR at this point. Theoretically, at same $800K, David Festa has a higher ceiling than SWR for ‘25. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA, along with the Top 3 rotation guys Twins have, I am optimistic about the Twin’s rotation as is.

Twins trading Wallner seems to me to be as likely as them spending $200M on payroll. LOCAL kid (26 yrs) with best Slug% on the Team, 2nd highest OBP with 2.2WAR in 75 games. Why would anyone, with any organization, trade that away? Eddie Julien being in the Majors with any team in ‘25 is not a high % prospect……. (in ‘24 he hit .199 with an OBP of .292 & a 74 OPS+ over 94 games - not an average defender at his primary position) Playing FIRST Base for anyone, including the Twins, is another couple standard deviations away from being real. Not sure why Eddie is being thought of as some plausible option at 1B……other than desperation? I hope he turns it around but my hopes won’t help him at all.

To me they need offense and the Staff is covered with what’s currently in the organization. …….. TRADE Duran in a package for a good young Catcher or a BAT that can play 1B or OF……maybe takes 2-3 more guys from Twin’s side?…..Castro - one of the current Catchers - Julien - ….. maybe Matthews or C. Lewis? Rotation: Festa - Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan …. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya are all in St Paul for depth. Pen: Alcala - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Varland - Henriquez - Funderburk - Headrick - Moran ………Prielipp - Canterino are fantasy additions with health …….. Raya makes sense by August! That’s 14 guys to piece together 8 spots over 6 months. Guys like Blewett and Tonkin will be around through the season (like guys) to eat some innings.

See no chance of Jax moving to rotation…….why would they do this other than to appease Jax. I make HIM the closer and he can make more $$ in that role. I trade Duran in a package for offense or good young Cstcher.

Completly agree, out on Luzardo…….his WHIP is over 1.200 for his career and it’s been over 1.200 his last 2 seasons. He was out with back problems and had 16 starts with a 5.00 ERA in ‘24. EVERYONE here rides the front office about making bad trades and trades for pitchers that are hurt and don’t pan out ……… Jesus Luzardo may be the poster child for this scenario. After the ‘22 season I was in love with the guy!! Couldn’t imagine why Twins would trade for Lopez instead of Luzardo……….sooo very glad they did not. He’s a major risk and there certainly is no reason to covet him. …. I don’t think I’d trade Luke Keaschall for him straight up. Non starter trade for me. I think our staff is just fine! TWINS need a BAT and a decent, youthful Catcher. They need to move one of their current catchers in trade. Also, they need to move pitchers that are of interest to trade partners……. Castro can be a trade piece as well as Julien. Pitchers may be Matthews - C. Lewis - Duran - Henriquez - Paddack.

I have nearly zero affinity for Lee. My comment was he/Julien/Keaschall would earn time at 2B based on performance. Seems pragmatic - right? He’s the back-up at 3B & SS because he’s potentially on the bench & available.

A real Funk suggestion here: Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well! Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time. Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames. Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.

They could use better defensive play - for sure. Problem they had though was scoring runs the last 6 weeks. They were 17 games over .500 at that point and a bunch of that bad defense was already behind them……. guys like Tommy Pham aren’t going to help with the glove nor with his legs. No perfect Teams but I like guys that are bat first nearly every time. Pham may be a fit but I doubt that out of Spring Training, maybe added later?

I agree that for guessing what can be done, signing available FA’s is the easiest. Predicting trades (for who - giving up who) is extreme guesswork and probably fruitless. I just don’t see the Team signing anyone in FA for any double digit (millions) salary. (Lopez - Buxton - Correa total $73M) Trade for 1B Westburg of Orioles or Casas of Red Sox. Bring in real capable guy at a seriously reduced cost compared to Walker. Trade for a young Catcher that can hit some. My group of trade pieces due to their cost and UPSIDE for trade partners, at the surface, are these guys……….Castro - Jeffers - Matthews - Duran - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Paddack - Julien. I’m sure there may be interesting guys lower than these in the system……will leave that to the imagination. Santana is a “FA reach” for a solution but Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching - he’s reasonable insurance - he could get Margot’s PH attempts from ‘24 and play first base 30-35% of the time……more if there’s an injury. $5.5M & he stays with a contender. If trade emphasis really focuses on the right Catcher………seems if we move Jeffers and $4.7 M salary along with Castro and $6.3M salary to AZ, along with Z. Matthews, we could get back Moreno and take J. Montgomery off their hands….,(AZ pays $11M of his $25M owed). We flip Montgomery and Duran ($3.7M) and Paddack ($7.5M) to O’s or Boston for their first baseman. Get a Catcher and 1B going forward and save $22.2M ……these $ could be used a bunch of ways …… if Westburg is the add from O’s, he makes a few million immediately so the extra $$ are reduced. Seems AZ is motivated to move Montgomery …… Moreno is a key guy for them so they need some real value back …….. I think something can be done there though.

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. Just a general comment on the overall…….taking on Wandy Peralta & signing Duvall or Pham sound like good moves in 2022. I don’t see much improvement - none - with this roster. Yandy could be an interesting add - the prospect capital, if measured, is something an organization has to part with to improve. The Catcher move is not exciting if San Diego has given up on the guy.

Eye test - he passes. Just like the large majority of young pitchers, his command could be better in the zone. He could also use some pitch that changes his velocity a bit more…….even his current change-up is 91MPH…..maybe a secondary grip on this to get more variation? Maybe a curveball 8% of the time? He looks determined and pretty unflappable on the mound to me. I like his demeanor and his stuff!

I completely agree on cast-offs/Dobnack. Can’t just wish them onto another club. Seems though, if Team can pay part of other’s salaries to move them, Dobnack may be in this group as well. Maybe team covers $1.25M and sends an A ball prospect? That leaves $1.75M for “other team” to cover. Seems it’s going to be a one way deal though with no real return. That’s OK - they would be giving Dobnack an opportunity and saving “some amount”. I would think that a Julien & Paddack trade could net somebody with more than just a pulse - right? Paddack and somebody else with value. Personally, I think Paddack is a big plus for 75 innings through the year from the Pen. Lefties, IMO, are in place with Funderburk - Moran - Headrick. Seems those 3 guys competing for a spot is a better option than signing a big maybe in his 30’s - there are a handful of those guys out there. I trade Duran & Castro (why non tender and get no value back?) & Jeffers. ($14.7M moved) Those 3 may all go to one team to get a real catcher with youth. Camargo is not a real MLB option. Paddack & Vazquez are in the $135M on the books now. If they can cost share a positive $1M for Dobnack plus the other $14.7m, that’s $15.7M to spend. The 3 guys traded would be replaced by $800K x 3 spots or $2.4M. This now leaves $13.3M to spend……add Tonkin’s release……$14.8M to soend Pen: Varland - Henriquez - Alcala - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Headrick - Funderburk - Moran - Jax…….11 guys that seem to be in the mix. Rotation is static: Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Festa - SWR plus 3-4 guys at AAA. 13 man: Lewis/Miranda - Correa/Lee - Keaschall/Lee - Miranda/Keaschall Vazquez & young Catcher via trade Martin - Kiersey - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner I would trade Matthews - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Julien - Martin………whatever combination needed, to get a guy like Westburg or Tristan Casas to play 1B. Can keep $10M to spend at the deadline (Aug. 1 - Sept. 30) for whatever is needed. ………………….. Could dump Paddack and sign Santana for $5.5………..then take the roughly $18M left and try to sign O’ Neil as an OF bat and move Martin to AAA……..big maybe?

What if they are less active and just trade to get $$$ to spend on a guy? Trade Paddack - trade Castro - Jeffers to a contender for a reasonable young catcher……take those $18M and sign Grichuk - Santana - former Yankee lefty Hill with those $$. Staff is at $46M. 13 Everyday guys at $83M. To me this is a move toward the future with the Catcher along with OF bat improvement & reasonable depth move for 1B and right handed PH with Santana. Solid lefty in Pen. Problem is it’s a playoff team with health & not a very deep run capable club……,,very ‘24 Guardians like - all based on the budget at $130Mish