JD-TWINS

If he misplays one if CC’s one hoppers from short…….Sonny Gray will lose his mind. It’s not high school, you don’t just move a guy to first and hope to hide him. It’s not played on paper. I see the 181 innings in minors……20 games. Obviously, he didn’t grade out very well! Picking up ground balls is one basic element - stretch/footwork - handling throws from pitchers with runners on base - cut-offs - feeding pitchers on balls hit to first - scooping errant throws, routinely - etc. One screw-up and the team knows we have a weak spot we shouldn’t have. Morale is sucked away. Getting him to play 1B so when Kirilloff comes back Kirilloff can DH is the silliest thing I’ve heard on the subject. Solano is on the roster - mild injury. He’ll be there soon. Kirilloff will be back there in 3 weeks, hopefully………Gallo til then. Obviously, this was probably written for TD prior to Gallo’s one walk/4 hit game Saturday night. 2 HR & 4 RBI. We’re going to struggle with Julien at 2B until he gets better over next 18 months. IMO Polanco will play 2B v. LH & 30% of the time v. RH. That’s it - Julien will sit some & DH some. Buxton will get a shot at everyday DH but if he struggles, Julien will be there v. RH pitching. Hope Julien funds a spot in line-up regularly but moving him to 1B in a stretch run to playoffs is not sound move. Once Kirilloff is back we have the same clogged issue with two LH batting 2B - one struggles on D! Kirilloff isn’t displacing Wallner nor Kepler at this point, he’s at 1B.

So, Kepler is a lock the rest of the way in RF. Wallner is a lock in LF. Julien/Farmer/Lewis/Jeffers/Vazquez/Kirilloff Correa & Buxton are other fixtures. That’s 10 guys…….who else sticks through August? Solano - Taylor - Gallo Castro has options and the other 3 don’t. Luplow has slim & none as a chance to stick. Timing on Buxton & Kirilloff is up in the air so Luplow & Castro stick until they are back. Rocco, post game talk Saturday night, all about what a great guy Gallo is in the locker room and how his teammates think he’s great. He had a walk tonight & went 4 for 4 with two HR. Not getting released……….Castro’s back is bothering him. Can IL Solano or Castro to make room for Lewis……..he’s coming Monday - right? I think they take their time with Buxton & Kirilloff getting back. Gallo may end up on IL late this month just to get to September 1 roster expansion????? Polanco was not mentioned above. He may not make the expanded roster of 15 guys that makes the team through September. Don’t know if they can afford to option Castro down and keep Polanco through August? 18 days to roster expansion. When they go from 15 to 14 bats in playoffs (4 starters - 12 total pitchers), who gets cut?? I think Luplow & Castro may be on outside? Currently, 16 bats in the mix when all are healthy. Choices to be made.

They would free up approximately $33M not pursuing Mahle & Gray & Maeda……seems there would be funds for a FA arm. 2 FA Pen arms on 2 year deals v. a starter?? Short term risk with 2 year deals. I’d like at least one successful reliever that’s not washed - along with Maeda. Gallo - Polanco - Taylor free up another $25-27M

Why is Solano not on the IL? Mild MCL knee sprain with a swollen ankle. That’s a week off!! Need bats that are available. Not his fault. Garlick could fill in - right? Assuming Solano out on Monday to IL, backdating a few days. Lewis to the 26 man. Can’t continue to play Gallo as primary option at 1B! If they want to carry Gallo through September as one of the two roster expansion slots, they may need to put him on IL to get him to September 1st. What’s the update on Kirilloff??

Maeda is a solid guy. Good attitude around clubhouse and he is a tough competitor. Can’t go wrong with him - rebuilt arm with experience!! Not too expensive either at 35-37yrs. old. Paddack - Ober - Ryan - Lopez……Maeda gives us a nice #4-5 guy!

Hope he can hold it together! Encouraging.

I’ve thought, for what it’s worth since end of June, that Gallo was going to be kept around in case of injury (i.e. Kirilloff) through roster manipulation so they could carry him in September with the roster expansion. This way they get his whole “perceived value” through the year - keep team continuity in clubhouse - never have to regret dropping him. Larnach as a replacement for Gallo sounds nice but with both Kirilloff & Solano out we’d be starting Farmer at 1B every night. Maybe not a bad thing? Anyway, I still see him around until the playoff roster comes out on Oct. 2.

Correct!……his glove is solid & he’s been hitting well for 8 weeks…..keeps improving. Hit 3 balls to the wall in one game earlier this week. Much better than popping up to short & rolling out to 2B!!! He’s made a change & ya gotta respect that. If he stays near this recent performance I think they pick-up his option for ‘24. Gallo has not changed! Thought we could ride it out through August & then have him be one of the 2 roster expansion spots in September. Good for continuity & morale? I’d DFA him & put Solano on IL & bring Garlick to play first base & Lewis back up by Monday morning. Where’s Kirilloff??

So, I’m not apologizing but I am willing to be realistic. End of the year averages are just that. Few players play to their averages all season……..last year I couldn’t stand Pagan and it bled into this season. I don’t get excited when I see him come into a game even now, but 4 HR’s over 50 innings is really good. He’s not perfect - had a hand in probably 3 losses this year. To have a 4.62 ERA on June 11 & to have it to 3.25 by Aug. 11 is good stuff! No apologies but try to be fair! Kepler, “get the bum off the team” was my chant well into June. He’d make a slick catch or hit a HR every 7-8 games and there would be a reason not to lynch him……..the guy is probably top 5 Right-fielders in the game since mid-June. His OPS is .853 & he’s hit 11HR in 48 games……assuming he plays 135 games, that’s a 31 HR pace……..he may get to 25 with his rough first 10 weeks of the season……..the past 8 weeks have been great! No apologies, just fair!

Similar thoughts: Maeda - Ober - Ryan - Lopez - Paddack………Varland…….FA that can pitch (not Mahle) for something in the range offered to Gray?……….or roll with potential from the Farm & invest in couple guys for the Pen? Stable starting 1-5 is something I think we’ll take for granted going forward…….it’s not a typical situation to get good starts day after day. See last 3 weeks!!!

Maeda - rebuilt arm & at 35, he has a couple years left. Great competitor & fits with the team. He gets guys out!! I’d guess 2 years at $11-$13M each……maybe a heavy bonus for innings pitched each year as a two way incentive? Gray - qualifying offer. Not SURE anybody goes over $20M? He’s 34 or will be & he’s had injury stints almost every year until ‘23……might be surprised?….…draft pick makes sense as the alternative. Mahle - would need to be $5M in ‘24 & then some incentive heavy deal, with maybe a $12-$14M base through ‘26. Big risk - probably not worthwhile with the potential for lingering shoulder issue. I live in Cinti and struggled watching him pitch here - same with Twins. Too much nibbling - chasing strikeouts - leads to walks - high pitch counts early - & then the HR/Big inning comes. He gives up HR everywhere, 3 in first outing in Minneapolis. Don’t believe the, “it only happens in Great American Ballpark”……he can be brutal anywhere. His approach frustrates me so I’m probably a little tougher on him than others might be……..been watching him 4 years.

Maybe in ‘24? I like the “replacement for Michael A. Taylor” next year. I just can’t imagine them removing Castro from this roster between now & end of September. He’d have to take Luplow’s spot on roster…….let’s see how those two perform over next 3 weeks - he has a shot.

Stick with 13 arms in September, use options on guys up & down to keep pen fresh & go to 12 guys in playoffs (4 starters needed). Will need the extra bat options in September.

Seems Prato - Stevenson - Martin are all taking a backseat to MLB experience acquired with Luplow. Funderburk seems like a logical risk/reward step! Not worried about trading catchers in middle of August, too many other things to sort out. If we don’t include some serious prospect OR pay 60% of his contract, nobody’s taking Vazquez in a trade for another 2.3 years…….he’ll be a FA after ‘25. Sunk money, w/o great performance. He’s a reasonable MLB back-up but he’s not worth more than $4-$5M per year………that’s generous with his stats this year. As you are aware, we’re paying $10M per season.

Lee’s been in AAA for 3 games & our #1 pick this year just got out of high school…??? Kirilloff - Buxton - Lewis need to get back ASAP. Really need Kirilloff healthy to chase Gallo out of the line-up.

Like the attitude & the coaching aspect! Larnach needs to start putting it to practice very soon……….to soon for Wallner, agreed, but very positive over different stretches in the Show this year! It’s about the bat, but I must say Wallner plods around in LF but he’s not noticeably subpar & he can throw to anywhere in the Stadium from wherever he’s standing - really good arm.

Wallner - Castro/Gordon - Kepler……..Lewis or Martin as 5th guy or as part of the IF/ OF flexibility group. Polanco has to go - Farmer is signed. Castro brings too much to not carry him.

Good points - both strike out a lot so the adjustment ls being made by them seem to be coming up short. I did see somewhere yesterday that Wallner, over last 6 weeks in St Paul dropped his K rate from around 37% to around 24% - that’s pretty significant. Love Larnach’s look as a player but Wallner seems to be a similar outfielder - great arm - better & more consistent power!! The power difference is significant.

Assuming the twisting & torque generated with an at bat is the most high risk. Lewis will be ready when they come home I assume. You’re exactly correct, today they looked like a team that had been constructed to look a certain way with a certain group and we were missing the 3 core guys or at least “arguably” the 3 core guys. An offense that’s a shell of itself. Was calling for Kepler to be DFA’d or given away at deadline all of June - the guy has turned the corner relative to solid contact. He hit 3 balls to the wall today……410ft dead center ………395ft to center………370ft to left center. Tough luck this afternoon. Haven't seen a reason all season not to bunt next time we get first 2 guys on base (1st & 2nd)…….with our K rate and our double play propensities, we almost need to play for the lead and hope it blooms into a big inning. Seems hoping a Buxton comes back is counterintuitive but what’s up with a Kirilloff??? Need him!

Dylan Bundy was fine for 5 innings 2 out of 3 starts. He was our 4th starter though, so our expectations were much higher! If Kuechel gets us 5 innings, average, for 6 more starts and holds teams to 3 runs or less, he’s a hero. If we send Ryan or Ober out there tired, all the previous ‘23 stat cast bologna doesn’t help them during their 25th start. On a relative basis a decent Kuechel is better than our normal starters if they feel rundown. That’s the bottom line. Doesn’t matter if Kuechel is at his 2015-2017 self…….on Sunday he looked like a guy that gave us a chance to win…….that’s the pitcher’s job. At least 3 of 8 hits were soft contact - 2 were too soft. 2 walks in 5 innings is the guy he is now & was in St Paul. He’s pitched to contact his whole career - he’s got experience & guts - he may get lit up a couple times but I saw Ryan give up 6 HR’s in one game & 4 in another. Can’t get worse than those two starts - give the guy a chance!

Gotta try to use the guy in a game where the score is essentially neutral. Guy has to get some outs - can’t second guess the manager every time a BP arm gives up a run! I think we were down 1 when he came in - not a Jax/Thielbar spot…..IMO. Maybe Floro, but is he that much better or any better than Balazovic? We moved J Lopez - need to find guys that can fill out the 8 spots.

Lee - Lewis - Wallner - Julien - Kirilloff - Jeffers are going nowhere. With Mahle - Gray - Polanco - Gallo - Taylor leaving in ‘24, we have $50M freed up for a FA pitcher if desired. Paddack - Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Varland……..Maeda could be an affordable and likely re-sign. Kuechel is too soon but a potential affordable guy that seems to like pitching for the Twins. Could probably get Maeda & Kuechel for $20M total. Couple potential young arms from system to add depth during the year? Don’t see us trading prospects for pitching. Miranda - Celestino - Larnach - Martin - etc. are all guys in St. Paul that should be available for whatever needs we think we have.

Can’t rush Lewis! Farmer can play 1B. Not a lot of difference between moving Polanco or Julien to 1B…….I agree, Polanco has a better chance……still not very bright! Gallo will play v. RH starters until Kirilloff gets back, like it or probably not!

Kirilloff & Lewis need to be healthy. Wallner - Julien - Kepler - Jeffers - Castro need to continue to hit as they have been. Ryan to the Pen - maybe with Varland in September? 12 arms in playoffs & only 4 starters needed. CC - Polanco - Buxton need to be decent - not necessary to Star but gotta show up at an average level. Game 3 & Game 4 our starter will match up well and we should be a draw with starters in first two games in a series. Optimistic!!

Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23. Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money! ‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.