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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Honest question here (pertinent since it allows team to keep both Julien & Lee), why would the Twins not sign Mike Clevinger to a 2year deal for $14.5M/year - year 2 is player option?? Security & flexibility for player. Twins get experience and talent………131 innings & 3.77 ERA in ‘23. Move Polanco and Clevinger is really affordable. Thoughts?
  2. JD-TWINS
    If you perceive Jeffers as not that much of a valuable contributor, a weak link in our pursuit of a Championship, why would some other team make a wonderful trade with Twins for him? He’s a high value, coveted guy, or not. I don’t disagree on Lee’s upside but he doesn’t have a hit in the Show. The minor leagues are full of exciting players with All-star POTENTIAL. I’d trade Julien before any of the other guys Twins hold in high esteem (Lee - Lewis - Jenkins) but he’s had success v. MLB pitching with high OBP & POWER (not sited often enough) & an improving defensive profile. I don’t trade any guy that’s had above average success in the Show - with his best years ahead!! Polanco - Vazquez - Farmer - Kepler, in that order are all guys that have had success that can be blended with prospects with potential for some return on the Staff. IMO.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Mirroring hitterscount topics: In reality the Twins are covering the 1B needs with Kirilloff’s expected health & Miranda’s ability to bounce back. Fingers crossed!! This is their version of addressing the situation. Just like last year they anticipated replacing Urshella with Lewis. No trade or acquisition for a 1B necessary. Apparently, they believe the other RH bats at 1B at AAA can be a reasonable alternative to Miranda if he’s a disaster. Same situation in CF. Buxton didn’t start a game there last year. In his absence in ‘24, they will be replacing the contributions of Michael Taylor from ‘23. A challenge but again, filled from within. Need to solve the pitching depth hole!…….it’s possible, with an internal option or two, they may wait until July to see if they need to trade for a rental?? Don’t like it but it’s possible.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Should Twins trade Julien or Lee or neither……..maybe Polanco or Farmer……all discussed in the most feverish amount of total responses I recall over past couple years I’ve followed the TD site. Only real news from last 2 weeks. Get better!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Longevity is the only possible strike for Mauer but it seems he’s overcoming that in the early vote. His stats glow compared to others at his position as you point out. There is one other catcher prior to Lombardi in 1926 to win the batting title. Mauer has 3 of the 7……pretty good. 100% on the Gordon situation.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I really like Montgomery & I’ve said more than once here I wanted Luzardo for Arraez…….I think we hit the Pot of Gold with Lopez though - no regrets!! I don’t think a guy that isn’t intuitive in anything he does on the defensive side can just be moved around. Displacing Kirilloff at 1B & in the line-up doesn’t help. The Twins people and some TD writers have said Lee grades out as a better defender at 3B than Lewis. Lee played CF in the Show and I realize he got hurt out on the grass. If you think Julien has a chance in LF, then you know Lewis can handle it easily. 2024 line-up: Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis 3B - Kepler RF - CC SS - Wallner LF - Jeffers C - Castro CF 2025 line-up: Julien 2B - Buxton DH - Kirilloff 1B - Lewis LF - Lee 3B - CC SS - Wallner RF - Jeffers C - Martin CF Reasonable?
  7. JD-TWINS
    I don’t disagree - however, would really like to see Lee & Julien in our infield & Lewis in LF for a whole bunch of years. What if we just figure out a way to shed Vazquez (contribute $3.5M to his annual salary? …..add a mild AA prospect?) & Polanco. That’s $17M saved this year. Trade Kepler at deadline or extend & trade prior to ‘25. That’s a total payroll reduction of $27M in ‘25. If Martin or Lee can play depth roll at SS they could keep Vazquez & move both Polanco & Farmer in the near term. Sign J. Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/yr. with a 4th & 5th year player option. Gives him security and also feeds his ego…….he can leave after 3 years if he’s been fantastic. Great opportunity to keep offense upside intact and get a Top Line pitcher with experience and great track record. Understood - not easily done with Montgomery.
  8. JD-TWINS
    The potential of getting a starter with the floor of Pablo Lopez is nearly impossible. I watched the “Top 10 pitcher” special on MLB network earlier this week & Lopez was in Top 10 of all starters for ‘24 on 2 of the 6 lists. One list was computer driven and other 5 from pundits like Brian Kenny & Ron Darling. XWOBA (likelihood of someone getting on base) for 2023 - López had the BEST in baseball! …….#1…….. We should shoot high but thinking Polanco or nearly anyone on our roster is worth a Top 10 pitcher is a BIG reach. My choice of Farmer over Polanco isn’t $$ based (it’s a minor plus) it’s because he’s a serviceable SS if needed and better than Jorge at 3B & 2B…………and MOST of all, he’s durable & available. Polanco’s talent on the IL doesn’t add anything. Am assuming we aren’t trading a starter from the current staff…..,,,, Twins cannot move Lewis - CC - Buxton - Lee - Jenkins - Duran either because of ability or contract. From the remaining pool of players in the organization Twins need to blend at least 3 guys to get a top line pitcher in trade, maybe 4 total - IMO. IF, we can get payroll flexibility by moving Polanco & maybe Vazquez (kick in $3M/year to other club) & then sign a FA pitcher………..this should be pursued!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Through late summer of ‘23 the internal sentiment seemed to be that Lee projects better at 3B than 2B. Obviously, SS is clogged for another 2-5 years. If Lee slots at 3B later this summer or in ‘25 I’m all for Julien staying at 2B & Lewis displacing Wallner in LF. He’s the RH corner OF they “need” and Wallner fits in RF in ‘25.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Polanco played 80 games in ‘23…….guessing here but am thinking 5-10 at DH & 10 at 3B - close? 60 starts below average at 2B blended with 3 previous years of defense at 2B can get the whole to be average. Physically, he’s creeping up on being washed.
  11. JD-TWINS
    It says “blah defense”………..”attitude” was a separate comment. I don’t hate the guy but he appears cocky to me. Light on the hustle to first on ground balls - striking out looking and appearing (as many guys) that there was no way it was a strike……….attitude aside, I too had the Central Theme of, we shouldn’t trade either guy. Good OBP - good pop - good offensive value……those were my comments on Julien. “Farmer ragging him all season….” know nothing & have heard nothing about this…..,,many rookies have to put up with B.S., particularly if you can’t field your position.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Gotta link with a team that sees value with Polanco as a 2B for 75 games (maybe with a team developing a RH young 2B?) - 3B for 5 games if needed - 50 games as a DH. As well, he needs to be lumped with a Festa - E. Rodriguez combination to net a decent arm. Probably very slim things work for an arm but he’s netting nothing of near-term value by himself!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Not personal…….. I don’t get the affinity with Polanco with nearly every contributor here?? Mostly sentimentality? He’s played 55% of the games the past 2 years. His defense at 2B in ‘23 has been equated to comparable of Julien’s. Siting performance results from more than past 2 seasons, to me, isn’t very logical. One could argue nearly every player that’s had some success at one point will probably have success in ‘23 because we want it to be true. Farmer is rated better defensively than Polanco at all 3 glove positions in the infield. He has hit is career BA the past 2 years at .255. Polanco is a career .270 hitter with the past 2 seasons being .235 & .255. Farmer missed approximately a month in 2023 because he got hit in the face by a pitch - otherwise, available every day! $6.5M v. $10.5M OPS - HR pop - other offensive benefits don’t translate if one is on the IL. Seems to me that Twins have Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Castro - Martin all available to do some work at 2B going into Spring Training, with Julien getting 70% or more of starts in season. Lee coming mid-summer to add depth at 3B &/or 2B. Why they wouldn’t move Polanco while he has some value & when they need payroll flexibility? Not doing this doesn’t make sense to me. If they keep Polanco & don’t trade Farmer of Kepler - what’s the 13 man every day roster April 1st?
  14. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I’ve been on the trade Julien’s blah defense, attitude, & strikeouts & keep Lee train…….thinking lately about the # of HR’s - high OBP - improving defense and think they probably need to keep Julien! That said, I can’t get behind trading Lee either. Cop out here but they both seem to have good value and are low $$ for years to come. Not trying to be outside the box with some fantasy approach but it seems since we need a RH hitting Corner OF with pop and Lee potentially grades out well at 3B - they should leave Julien/Farmer at 2B for this year & Julien/Martin after ‘24 & move Lewis to LF - Wallner to RF - Lee at 3B. Seems to solve the OF dilemma - the Lee/Julien dilemma - should they hang on to Keppler going forward dilemma. Martin (fingers crossed) develops into a parallel guy to Castro with OF/IF capabilities.
  16. JD-TWINS
    I value Max……wanted to lynch him last June & was writing apologies by the end of August. Love his defense! His last 85 games in 2023 were fantastic at the plate! $$ common sense for the Twins organization has to be part of the equation. History & current press releases are what the budget/payroll is built around, not the Pohlad’s family wealth. See if Kepler performs at a reasonable level through May &, if so, offer to extend him for a couple years at $15M/year. If he doesn’t extend, Wallner at a 2023 WAR of 2.2 & 14 HR’s in less than half as many AB’s than Kepler is a reasonable replacement in RF. Lee comes in to play 3B & Lewis moves to LF coming off a 2023 WAR of 2.4 & 15 HR’s in exactly 50% as many AB’s as Kepler. Kepler is traded prior to deadline.
  17. JD-TWINS
    I like Lewis to LF & Lee to 3B by start of ‘25 at latest. I would move Polanco ASAP, potentially with another couple guys for an arm……….worst case for prospect to loosen up $10.5M for ‘23 payroll. Kepler has to get a shot at RF - if he’s reasonable through May/June he should get an extension offer. If he’s OK but there are guys pushing their way up to the Show, he gets moved by the deadline.
  18. JD-TWINS
    2023 Offensive Teoscar: 625 AB’s - 211 Strikeouts - .258 BA - 26 HR - .305 OBP - 106 OPS+ ………2.1 WAR 2023 Offensive Max: 434 AB’s - 106 Strikeouts - .260 BA - 24 HR - .332 OBP - 121 OPS+ ………..2.9 WAR I don’t think either guy is worth $20-$22M/year. The Dodgers are creatively paying $15M this year and an $8.5M retirement bonus through the ‘30’s. To me, Teoscar is way overrated! Not great D & 211 K’s with 2 more HR than Kepler in nearly 200 more AB’s…….doesn’t seem like a very effective masher when viewed in big picture……….in ‘23 GALLO had 21 HR in 282 AB’s & plays a much better OF than Teoscar. Joey’s worth about $1M per year. Twins will never offer Max a QO that could be accepted at $20-$22M/year……..Wallner - Rodriguez - etc. will be the more prudent option in RF. IMO, If he’s playing well at the break & team’s OF depth is thin, they may make him an offer to extend………if OF depth is present in July, they’ll trade him to better the team & to get some return.
  19. JD-TWINS
    If he isn’t on that ballot it will be because he’s already been enshrined - right?
  20. JD-TWINS
    Big Mauer fan - debated with a Giant’s fan over this topic on Facebook a couple weeks ago. The reality of injuries are what they ate for all players but Posey did miss a season’s worth of games due to knee injury (collision at home) & he sat a season during Covid…….another 700 PA’s and he would be even a more formidable offensive comparison with Mauer!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine they move Lee. I do think he’ll be a depth guy after the deadline…….they may be able to move Farmer then? In ‘25, based on projections from articles here, Lee is looking like his best spot is 3B. If so, I like Lewis in LF with Wallner in RF & leave Julien at 2B. We’ll see.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agree somewhat on the probable/potential platoon. However, nearly 75% of starting pitchers are RH & feed into Kirilloff’s playing time. The other mild objection is that you site Kirilloff’s lack of availability clearly but you refer to Miranda’s ‘22 season. He was out of the Show for 5 months last year. IMO, hoping I’m wrong, Miranda has a very difficult time making the 26 man out of Spring Training. Kirilloff’s first season in ‘21 was a partial of up & down as a 23 year old. Wrist hurt in ‘22 while Miranda had a reasonable season. In ‘23 Miranda was hurt & Kirilloff had a reasonable season. Kirilloff in ‘23 hit .270 - OBP .348 - .793 OPS - 117 OPS+. Miranda in ‘22 hit .268 - OBP .325 - .751 OPS - 114 OPS+. IMO Kirilloff starts 120 games at 1B - LF maybe 6 games - DH another 6 games……if he stays healthy (your concern is valid!) he’s a solid middle of the order guy that easily exceeds the Baseball Reference projections.
  23. JD-TWINS
    So, I didn’t listen to the information but agree with other guys comments here, he hasn’t been that impressive to date. Reason for my note here is to state how I wonder why “getting help at Driveline…..” isn’t mandated by the organization at some point. I get there must be a cost & there’s a labor agreement to protect the player’s free time but IT’S HIS CAREER. I keep waiting for the Dodgers or the Yankees to just buy Driveline and shut it down to the rest of baseball - pay the workers off - and get NDA’s in place. Seems it would buy a 5 year advantage?? After seeing how it (Driveline) helped 3-4 guys on the current Twin’s staff - it seems it should be mandatory for guys not progressing, that have unrealized expectations. Could be the list is TOO LONG?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Recognition is a pretty big key in hitting ……guys guess on certain counts or on what a guy will throw, & where, based on previous matchups. Can’t just assume balls will be thrown and then be able to react to a 95MPH fastball - the hitter assumes/sees fastball and it’s a slider 8” off the plate. That’s why guys hit .250 instead of .400, it ain’t easy.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - an MLB adage that’s over 100 years old……..Clint Eastwood & Amy Adams made a movie about a LH stud prospect never learning to hit a curveball & how he was “over projected” in the draft. Not earth shattering stuff……….good health & keep working is the only productive path forward. Fingers crossed!
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