JD-TWINS

Speed is nice - hitting a pitched ball, arguably most difficult thing to do in sports. Gordon certainly isn’t slow. “He’s OK in left & center & can play IF”. .272 BA in ‘22 with 28 doubles & 9 HR………110 games…….64 in CF. If he can show this promise again in Spring he is trade bait & a long shot for Twins 26 man (no options left). If he’s healthy Gordon is chosen above Stevenson every day. Stevenson will be DFA’d - at AAA at age 29 through August. Speed (Stevenson) was added with roster expansion & injured players. Stuck in playoffs because Buxton was unable to be on roster. Stevenson has no chance of being on Winter 40 man - Gordon has about a 30% chance.

Jordan Montgomery!!!! 4 years - $88M ……done! No other team improvements needed. Texas has deGrom $50M/yr - Scherzer $42M/yr - Heaney$18M/yr - Eovaldi $23M/yr all signed for next year & Montgomery is a FA. Poor man’s answer, if we can’t sign Montgomery, to pitching depth is Martin Perez from Texas at $13M & KENTA MAEDA at $13M/yr for two years.

Gotta say I see a bit of a chasm between Jordan Montgomery & Lucas Giolito! Montgomery had thrown 188 innings in 32 starts during regular season with a 3.20 ERA (10-11 record). Giolito threw 184 innings in 33 starts during regular season with a 4.88 ERA (8-15 record). That said, I think the best thing we could do as an organization is offer Montgomery $85-$90M for 4 years……it would make our staff elite. 6’6” & 230lb with a 9 year career ERA of 3.68 - he’s 30 yrs old v. Gray at 33. Durable lefty with playoff success!!!

Loss of $20-$30M from lack of TV revenue seems pretty valid to me. Hope they can solve this issue but, unsolved, leads to lower or for sure, an unchanged payroll. If we don’t have a new signing outside of ‘23 rostered guys, we can be really aggressive at the deadline. Prior to that we’d be between $120 - $130M……annualized.

NO KIDDING - almost scrolled to the bottom to jump all over that notion!! Did anyone watch him throw in the playoffs? Back to back innings in his last outing against Houston & 1 base runner. He may need a bit more guidance with his pitch selection but his talent - ability to dominate, is second to none! He tends to seem to want to look cool or fool people - batters - fans entering games?? Guy throws 101-102 easily & at that speed he seems to have control, wild high at 103 plus, often - his curve is nearly un-hittable but not always in the zone - splinker is devastating but seldom a strike. He chooses to not throw pitches to get ahead way too often IMO. Comes into a game and he might not throw the 101mph “controlled” fastball until his 5th pitch. Gets behind - walks guys too often. Once he gets behind, batters sit on fastball to make contact. Throw a fastball & get ahead & then do whatever you like as hitter needs to protect the zone after first strike is called. He’s fantastic - the $$ numbers are somewhat just semantics from us fans. Infinite options. I like the term outlined in deal shown - $3M - $5M - $7M - $9M - $13M x 3 years = $63M total guarantee 5 years with two option years.

Nobody is going to pick up his salary in a trade - that’s the reality of whether or not Twins can afford him in ‘24. He has a contract. ‘25 as well. Only trade chance would be to trade him with another guy that can play and doesn’t make any money yet. It sounds to me like he was the 5th best defensive catcher in the AL……..he’ll be our back up in ‘24 and still start 40% of the games to keep Jeffers healthy & fresh. My assumption is Jeffers makes $2M or less at this point in his career - so, $12M total for 2 catchers that are very competent is not too much money. Basically, since they signed Vazquez the offensive stats between the two guys flipped. Not a big problem for the organization. Keeping the Kid at triple A under control & keeping him interested is the challenge. Next year (‘25) - if desired, they may negotiate his $ owed to $5M and let him be a FA - doubtful he doesn’t get all $20M owed from the Twins.

Don’t see other, lesser clubs, passing on Gordon & Alcala.

Can’t trade his salary unless wrapped with a controllable prospect. Could maybe make a trade if another team’s main catcher goes down with injury. Not sure what the author was describing when he said this is about a “low impact position”? Catcher is certainly as important if not more than any of the 7 other fielding positions. Jeffers OPS lead all catchers. Let him play 60-65% of the time but keep him fresh. Vazquez was top 5 in defensive metrics in AL - great for the back-up. $11M for two good overall catchers that are durable is a good #! We’re good behind the plate.

Tough to over react if you’re hit by 98Mph around your shoulder. Pretty easy to get heated about that even if you struck out the previous 3 at bats. If you just hit a 3 run HR in the ALCS it just elevates the reaction. He didn’t really do anything but yell and get a little rammy with the catcher. That said, no intelligent baseball manager nor team would throw at a guy late in a game with a runner already on base and down 2 runs. Can’t imagine justifying hitting the batter & it being seen as an OK baseball move in a competitive game TO GET TO WORLD SERIES - NO WAY! The suspension is nuts!!

Note to author - I understand you didn’t see Jim Kaat pitch but that makes me pretty confident you didn’t see Killebrew - Carew- Oliva - Versailles either ……. when a guy is in the HOF you probably don’t need to see him play. An actual team listing: Lymann Bostock - LF S. Mack Paul Molitor - DH N. Cruz Rod Carew - 2B C. Knoblach Harmon Killebrew - 3B G. Gaetti Tony Oliva - RF Brunansky Kirby Puckett - CF Hunter Justin Morneau - 1B Hrbek Carlos Correa - SS Versailles Joe Mauer - C Harper Staff: Santana - Blyleven - Viola - Morris - Kaat Pen: Nathan - Aguilera - Guardado - Reardon - Peranoski - Duran Couple guys from old Senator teams would/should be on the team but other than Walter Johnson, wouldn’t be recognized so left omitted.

I would be surprised if we weren’t amenable to our arbitration guys…….this will help to maintain our depth. The guys like Taylor - Solano I’d think we would make offers to that were league competitive. Solano probably elevated his salary level to twice his ‘23 number & Taylor probably elevated his value as well. I’d guess 1 year deals for $4M & $5.5M to get them signed. Gordon - Castro - Farmer - Solano - Taylor - Vazquez - Larnach are the depth pieces we would expect to be of value in ‘24……….need some decisions on who to trade/release ………….Luplow - Stevenson - Gallo are all gone from consideration…………I’m guessing Polanco is traded as well at some point. By June 15, core of: Buxton - Correa - Jeffers - Julien - Kepler - Kirilloff - Lee - Lewis - Wallner Vazquez - Castro - Farmer - Solano We’ll need guys like Lee & Martin for roster flexibility during times of injury & recovery because our other depth pieces have no options left. The roster is jammed with real players in my example & that’s moving on from Taylor & Polanco. Tough decisions coming for FO. GRAY’S PRODUCTION being replaced is sensitive. He pitched great even when he didn’t have all his good stuff. However, the TEAM was 14-19 in his starts. Whether he didn’t get enough run support, we didn’t make plays, or the bullpen coughed up an opportunity…….we were 5 games under when he started. He probably gave us a good opportunity in 25-26 of his starts. His record individually was 8-8. I think we can replace his innings and at least the same 14 wins or more with Varland taking up his starts. Nobody wants to hear that or think that it may make sense. Not saying we shouldn’t offer Jordan Montgomery $85M for 4 years or Gray $52M for 2 years or Kenta Maeda $26M for 2 years but I wouldn’t ignore that we have Varland and his head tells him he should be a starter. We have 4 other capable guys at age 28 and under control for 4-6 years each. Could use keeping status quo roster to early sign 2-3 guys. If needed, be aggressive for A possible need at the deadline.

How did the best team in the AL (The O’s) do with no experience - they got beat like a drum!! Small steps when it comes to postseason. Tired of the gloom & doom here……the guys saying we didn’t change the face of the team & how it’s sites are set going forward this year are the same guys that we’re saying we were going to max out at 78 wins in June!! With Lee coming and another youngster at some point in ‘24 we’ll be just fine starting the season with a similar roster as ‘23. Regular season record v. some competitive clubs: Astros - we won 4 of 6 Rangers - we won 5 of 7 Phillies - we won 2 of 3 Diamondbacks - we won 3 of 3 That’s 14-5 against the last 4 teams standing. We got beat up by Tampa & Atlanta for balance & reality check. My point here is our only success doesn’t come only in the AL Central!! That is old!!

Mahle - Gallo - Maeda - Gray - Polanco - Kepler $58M off the $156M ……who to keep? I convert Kepler & re-sign Maeda …….that’s about $24M total. Increases due to arbitration would be no more ADDITIONAL $ than $10M. Low $130’s for payroll OK? I’d consider some early extensions with Jax & Duran for future savings & short term security for guys.

Hitting stats are the basis for the game - most difficult part. I liked Gordon post ‘22 a lot!! I like Castro for the reasons you pointed out. I think the depth move may be to have Gordon & Castro be the Outfield guys along with Kepler & Wallner………then, do we bring back Taylor……..what’s Buxton’s health in 3-4 months? As good as Taylor was, his age & strikeouts may be a sign to move to more youth. Could sign him & if things work out (Gordon’s hitting) with Buxton, we trade Gordon or Taylor into the season? Neither can be optioned - tough call for FO.

Gallo - Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Polanco are the salaries I see going away. That’s a general total of about $49M ………I keep Kepler because of continuity - can’t dump a guy that had a near .900 OPS for last 3 months. Kirilloff will play 1B. Other guys are, at best, a wash with Kepler’s offense. His D is still superior if healthy. Release or option/trade Polanco……his salary is gone. Played 104 games & hit .235 in ‘22……played 80 games & hit .255 in ‘23. Declining production (.270 career hitter) and lack of availability! I’d try to sign Maeda for $12-$14M/yr for 2 years. Great depth piece to supplement starters. Base cost of $92M with Polanco savings = $82M plus arbitration guys totaling $15M = $97M plus Maeda at $14M = $111M Extend 2-3 guys early - $15M total spend ‘this year. That’s $126M total - hope we can swing that!

I’d like to see Miranda gone but his value is at an all time low after ‘23. He has potential but playing hurt really messed up his numbers and perception. We’re good at 3B & if Kirilloff is healthy, we’re good at 1B. IMO, Miranda doesn’t fit. Larnach should get another look in Spring Training but he’ll be challenged to make Big Club. Trading him with a cluster of other guys should be on the table. I live in Cincinnati & understand the allure of the two young pitching prospects they have - the issue is the Twins can’t trade Jeffers w/o somebody coming up & ready from the organization. The other issue is the Reds carried 3 catchers this year and one was nearly rookie of the year 3 seasons ago - he’s DH often on off days…….Stephenson is solid and a core piece of this Reds Club. The ultimate “trade high” guy (with risk!) would be Eddie Julien. Hitter - high OBP - with Pop. The bad news is we have a #1 pick coming sometime next year to play his position - Brooks Lee. In the meantime (if he were to be traded) our options are Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon. I don’t know you could get proper value back for Julien - don’t like trading good offense - too hard to hit a baseball.

What would that potential be? Youth? Castro plays 5 defensive positions at average or better……..he switch hits……….he steals bases at a high level. hit .255 in ‘23. Farmer plays 3 positions better than average & has a proven track record vs. LH pitching. Hoping for the best for Jose but don’t see him playing in Minneapolis again in a TWINS uniform

Can’t imagine the organization holds any value in keeping Stevenson on 40 man. He’s got good speed and had playoff experience so he made sense in ‘23 for expanded roster & playoffs, with other guys being hurt. Can’t hit at high enough level. He’s gone. Similar profile for Luplow. IMO, Balazovic is in our 8 man Pen when Spring Training breaks at end of March. Needs experience - can’t let him get pilfered!! Interesting looks at the roster issues by the author - well done!!!

Already have a crowd at 2B with Lee at AAA. Castro - Gordon - Farmer - Julien - Polanco Julien’s a possibility to help get back to Kirilloff by June. IMO, Miranda is lower on my list for a comeback than Buxton. I re-sign Solano for $3.5M and expect him to be my RH hitting 1B for at least 3 plus months. Farmer also can be used at 1B as needed……particularly if he’s groomed to be there more, while in Spring Training.

Larnach seems as extreme as we can go but maybe worth a shot. Julien & Solano to start the year makes sense. Kirilloff by June. Sign Polanco & potentially trade in July if Julien is hitting & Lee seems ready. Miranda, IMO, has about a 10% chance to play for us again. To me, Kirilloff is our 1B going forward ……assuming health. We have OF covered with athletic OF’s.

Didn’t forget CC - my comments were about guys in the “logjam” of an infield that could be traded or not started. He’s a fixture and there’s no reason for conjecture at SS, other than depth. Brooks Lee is going to start at 2B at some point. Kirilloff doesn’t enter the conversation since he’s left handed and not going to play anywhere but 1B in infield. The Lee v. Julien issue is the elephant in the room. To get down to that, Polanco needs to be out of the picture, IMO. Therefore, moving Jorge from the picture via FA or extend & trade is what I see as our path forward.

For 140 years players tried to hit a ball to the right side on the ground to advance a runner from 2B to 3B with less than two outs. With a guy on first (particularly with new rules) starting a runner with no outs and trying to advance a guy into scoring position with a ground ball is an aggressive play to try & get runs. No matter how much I like or you like Wallner, rationalizing strikeouts doesn’t make sense to me. I know CC hit into an infinite number of double plays in ‘23 but he also lead the team in RBI - runners don’t score or move on a K. If Wallner hit 6 less homers over a season and cut his K rate by 6-8% my assumption is that’s a good thing.

Most HR’s in the AL in ‘23. I agree though - XBH does not denote a need for high K %. Home run hitters have notoriously high K % historically but some of them also hit .300 a bunch of times with 35 doubles. Rationalizing striking out at an extreme rate because a hitter has a high slug% is just that, a rationalization for underperforming or better stated, having a bad habit or flawed approach.

Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon - Julien - Lee………all capable of playing 2B. Farmer - Castro - Lee……….all capable of playing SS Polanco - Farmer - Castro……….all capable of playing 3B There’s a strong possibility that Julien plays every day at 2B v. RH pitching. Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - he played 80 games this year & hit .255. He’s a career .270 hitter. It seems other clubs would have access to the information that shows a distinct decline in output & availability. If I’m a GM & discussing Polanco with the Twins it’s also pretty easy to see the clogged roster spots in the infield…….seems to be a clear bargaining chip. I’m taking the less cost player with best defense as my utility guy in the infield - guy v. LH pitching at 2B. Farmer. Castro is going to be on the roster and available at all 3 spots as well. We can sign & trade Polanco, as I stated, with the probable caveat that another player will need to be included to get reasonable return. We could also not take any financial risk and do him a favor and let him be a FA.

Q - Veteran decisions: This is a BIG deal! Not only a bit of potential financial relief but a much bigger deal from a clubhouse perspective. Does the Team re-sign or “execute option” & possibly work a trade? With Polanco’s health issues, & our infield depth coming up, I straight up let him walk & thank him for his service by letting him be a FA……….other option would be to sign & couple him with someone in a trade for an NL prospect. Don’t need him in the AL. For the $10.5M & with his 2nd half resurgence, I think we need to sign Max for 1 more year. Buxton - IMO, the PLAN has to be that he doesn’t exist. We need real CF options and he needs to be outside of those options (Castro - Gordon - Martin……..all probably comparable or better offensive stats with Taylor’s ‘23 output) & sufficient defensively. If CF & Catcher are the only sub-standard offensive spots we have we’ll be OK! Q -Top end starter adds/re-sign Gray: Been behind making Sonny an offer for 2-3 years but frankly, it’s mostly sentimental. His upside doesn’t offset the potential downside. We got burned with Mahle - Buxton is going to linger - don’t need a 34 year old pitcher with high injury risk/high $$$! Make the QO & take the pick and consider his tenure here a real plus……….that said, Festa or somebody is going to come out of our organization by ‘25. We have 5 starters now - we need affordable starter depth - that’s spelled KENTA! Q - Extensions: I’d try to extend Ryan…….if we could extend Durán, it makes real sense, before he is a national star……..he’s close to that now. His two innings of flawless relief in Game 4 stamped him as the most dominant young reliever in the game. Q - Fist base option: Kirilloff!!….130 games. If Solano is still able to hit, he’s the obvious 2B for all games not played by Kirilloff. He’s probably released or traded by the deadline if he’s not in that .265BA plus range. IF Buxton can’t run but can hit, he needs to get proficient at 1B throughout the year……….Spring Training - special assignment during season “coming off IL” - gotta be able to play there by end of August…….need options with him other than DH.