JD-TWINS

I would pursue trading Bell & prospect sooner than later while his value is at absolute high ….. maybe tough on Clubhouse? I would pursue trading Jeffers & prospect sooner than later so the trade partner gets Jeffers for longer period in ‘26 ……. maybe tough on Clubhouse? Target a reliever in both of the trades above……if one guy coming Team’s way works out, it’s all good! Put together some attractive package (Roden - Winokur - young arm) for Luis Arraez. He’s going to be sought after!! He slots at 2B. Playing very good defense this year, hitting .330 with a 136 OPS+ …….. 3.1 WAR at the Break! He can hit behind and force better pitches for either Buxton or Lewis. DH spot shifts to Larnach - Keaschall - Caratini. Clemens floats and starts essentially every day at LF/RF/1B & rests Arraez at 2B a handful of times in 2nd half. Be aggressive, if we want to compete. Consistency day to day would be a big benefit. ……. Arraez, worst case, might hit .290 for the rest of the year …….. Bell might hit .215. I think Arraez into the Clubhouse would be a big plus! IF a floor for spending comes into play with new CBA, there’s a chance they sign Arraez in off season. He can always shift to 1B occasionally as well as DH regularly if Houston & Culpepper need a spot.

Keaschall is definitely bumpy to watch but he’s been ascending offensively & is slowly settling into OF role……… Keaschall - Buxton & Larnach/Martin are a reasonable group if trying to compete. Lee - Kreidler - Clemens - Lewis is an average defensive infield. The offense from this group is probably considered average as well - with Lewis apparently able to hit at a reasonable level - Lee stabilized - Clemens above average (somehow) ………. Kreidler as the weak offensive link is tolerable. Bell - Caratini - Jackson are all at least average to date ……. Bell & Caratini can’t keep up the pace of recent weeks. Offense is good enough….have seen them knock around guys at Top Level ……. Valdez - Skubal - Gray - Crochet - etc …… so, the Playoff capabilities are there, not terribly consistent but that’s baseball. My point is they need to buy and figure out a trade that moves the needle. Jeffers - prospect should bring back some positive contribution. Rojas - Paredes - Sands should help solidify the PEN over next 10 weeks……probably only need 1 more arm. Matthews to the PEN in first round of Playoffs.

“……gotten by pretty cheaply” Agreed - understatement. $106M total player spend in ‘26 ($22M to Lopez & $10M to Correa) and $76M for players on the field. Relative to being able to trade & spend on guys owed money for balance of ‘26 …….. the amount should be $15M at a minimum, IMO. Trying to be “competitive” or not??? I’m not saying throwing money at guys with minimal value or upside for the stretch run makes sense. I’m all for moving prospect types to acquire an arm or two. Jeffers and a prospect should get something of decent value back! I just want to see them try with a move or two………., in addition to what’s been done in the PEN periphery the past few weeks.

Gray has an option left in ‘26……can move him down and bring him back in 10 days if they choose - immediately if there’s an injury. There’s flexibility with him. Your point about keeping Jeffers to get a competitive balance pick is a point well made….it does open the door to keep him. I just don’t see a frugal Team letting inexpensive Jackson go for very little in a trade …….. can’t trade Caratini with Jeffers (97%) gone after season. Roster doesn’t currently work with DH & 1B clogged by two guys that are performing. Almost have to trade Jeffers or just bite the bullet and give Jackson away for some A-Ball kid. Keeping Jeffers is tough to build a logical argument for after the 60/65 games worth of decent baseball played by Caratini & Jackson. I guess, if really think a run can be made, Team could trade Bell while he’s a hot commodity and open DH for Jeffers/Caratini rotation with Larnach mixed in or even Buxton?

Labor negotiating with Owners is a pretty common thing in business …….. both sides ultimately want to make money…….. with the current level of interest in the game, both sides would be nuts to have a work stoppage at all, due to failed negotiations……..worst case a shutdown of 30-45 days. Baseball is going to be played in ‘27 - too much money at stake for everyone involved to not play games! My opinion.

Prielipp & Matthews are certainly in the mix for the #4-#5 slots as well.

It’s a big option IF he gets hurt & is also a big option if the Labor Negotiations generate a “spending floor” for teams across baseball . Joe could be a good use of $$ needed to be spent. The other argument for the extension path is the fact that Lopez is off the books after ‘27 & there would be $22M of budget freed up……….could extend Joe & trade Pablo next year at the deadline……assuming he is generally solid coming back from a year off. Lots of options.

1) $14M to spend is hardly granting “flexibility”. 2) I get other Teams have had success for years while spending at a low rate…… Tampa & Milwaukee are great examples & obvious. To me, the difference is that in those organizations they have made a COMMITMENT to operate that way. I do not think for a minute that in ‘23 or ‘24 not in ‘25 when Team was put up for sale, that the FO thought the budget for ‘26 was going to be $105M. 3) Caratini & Bell were both signed with the expectation experience & a performance floor. Also, they were both signed to play a fair amount of 1B. Caratini as an effective Switch hitting PH. Jeffers hurt - Caratini only catches over next 65 games. Bell isn’t sharp at 1st (as anticipated) and Clemen’s experiment was working at 1B. 4) As you are aware, Bell has been excellent with RISP ……. had a terrible stretch through May……. & has had around .970 OPS for last 5-6 weeks combined. Caratini had a terrible May but he had the 4th highest OPS in the League, in June. Caratini & Bell, IMO, were standard signings in rounding out the Club. Caratini, on a 2 year deal brought some stability going forward, without Jeffers. The problem is there should have been at least $15-$20M more $$ available for relief pitchers, etc. …………. $125M payroll would hardly be in the Top 20 teams in spending.

Don’t disagree but placing Zoll in any negative light with Team’s spending at $105M ……… $50M less than 2023……to me, seems like speculation. No idea what he might pursue if there was a commitment to $135M - $145M - $160M over the next 3 years, so a FO has a chance to execute a plan toward real success….no idea?

Agree on Gray - LH bat & limited other options as of today. …….. having Lee back-up Kreidler just has a dual negative effect - Lee’s head getting messed up and no advantage defensively v. Gray……….. who plays 3B w/o a ripple effect that triggers bad results around the IF? Playing guys “because we need to get value from the trade” is not something that the business side nor the on field side of the TWINS should care about. ROJAS was the main trade piece in the Varland trade. I do not care if Roden or Rodriguez play ……. ever, for the TWINS. Do what is right for the club………..playing guys to build toward some mythical success “in the future” is not fruitful. Build the current club with guys that CAN play & add around them with youth as Team moves forward Roden has shown more than once that he handles AAA pitching …….. he deserves a shot but not “just to see what happens” …..the “look see” comes after the season has been given no chance of winning……..end of August through September, if appropriate.

Glass half full guy here ……… Rojas settling in with OK success for next 10 weeks - plus Paredes to PEN once Prielipp’s blister issue is resolved ……. maybe 10 more days? Sands is supposed to be back in 10 days or less - don’t expect greatness from him but probably better than the Adams - Lawyerson - etc guys that have been there to date. ……… with those 3 guys, the confidence level goes up a bit.

I can’t imagine that after one 7 game road trip the decision “to sell” will be made. 34 of final 65 are v. teams with losing record…….. Guardians & White Sox make up about 15 of the other 31 games v. winning record teams. At least see where the balance of the League is at and play it out through the home series with the A’s & Royals……,July 30. IMO, trade Jeffers ASAP to clear up the roster & Team’s focus going forward………I seriously doubt that any contender that would trade FOR Jeffers would part with a reliever off their 26-man.

Larnach was a first round pick! ………. as high or higher than the guys we hope may succeed, currently in AAA. He’s been at MLB level since he was 24……..up & down due to injuries for the first 3 years of his 6 total years of MLB play. His OPS has been building upward for 6 years. In ‘24, while being in a fairly strict platoon situation, his slash line was .259/.338/.439 with a .771 OPS & 116 OPS+. Pretty good production! A “keeper” at age 27. In ‘25, he wasn’t platooned nearly as much and had 118 AB’s (nearly 25%) v. LH pitching. His overall numbers went down from good to mediocre…,,,.102 OPS+. In ‘26, he’s hitting .179 v. LH pitching (in a very small sample but consistent with his hit profile) ………. he’s hitting .304 v. RH pitching (also consistent with his hit profile). His defense isn’t great but he’s improved and certainly as viable or considerably better than Bell, if played in the field. His current slash line is .289/.379/.459 with an .830 OPS & 131 OPS+. Very good production. Comparison here …… .254/.345/.421 with a .771 OPS and 114 OPS+ ……… admittedly, no comparison defensively! He doesn’t platoon. But, All-Star, Cody Bellinger, at age 31, makes $32.5M/year…….v. Larnach at $4.5M. I’m not an expert, but it seems to me that a player’s prime years are from age 27-32……close? Larnach is 29. Why in the world would the Twins trade a guy that’s home grown & excelling at a high level? Trade, only to make room for guys that the fans hope hit as well as Trevor Larnach does, someday. To me, he’s the obvious LH hitting platoon DH & PH in 2027. At DH he’s not “blocking” anyone. The fact that he doesn’t make “the minimum” as would all the guys currently in AAA would in ‘27, isn’t a valid reason to trade him. The fans shouldn’t think like Calvin Griffith ……. or the Pohlad’s, at times. Somebody on the roster is going to make $$ over “the minimum”. He may make $7M next year (?) if he finishes strong. The Twins, outside of Correa $ to Houston & Lopez $, are spending $73M on the players on the field daily in ‘26……$105M total…….to me this is embarrassing & should be discussed much more here v. figuring out ways to spend less than they currently do!! They spent $155M in ‘23. Supporting “zero spending” & rationalizing bringing guys up from AAA because of hype or just curiosity isn’t sound thinking, from a fan standpoint, to me. Jeffers is gone - Bell will be gone …….. ($12 M freed up for ‘27) Clemens may be arbitration eligible & could make a few million $ (that’s certainly fine) ……… he’s 30 btw. Current catchers got Team through 60 games of solid win % baseball - no more spending needed there. Ryan makes another $6-$7M in ‘27. Lewis may make $2M more if he continues his ascent. Essentially, everyone else is at minimum $$. There’s ZERO NEED to trade Trevor Larnach to save $$ in ‘27!

A much welcomed view of reality - thanks!! If Ross is a LH bat, have no idea, they might exchange he & Gray for a couple weeks to see if Gray can find patience at the plate in 14 days …….. not very likely. Arcia much more likely. Arcia may not be a bunch better than Gray with glove but he is better & after 10 years, he’s not going to wilt at MLB level. Jenkins, Rodriguez, & C.J. are spot on & SS Culpepper needs to be healthy at AAA for weeks, not days, before getting a call ……. if in the race, I don’t see organization shaking things up more than just a Jeffers trade.

Fedko may never play another game at Target Field……with any team. If they want to “compete”, they need to ride Kreidler at SS. Keaschall appears to be the Utility guy & Clemens/Lewis seem to have locked up the right side of the infield for 90+% of the remainder of the year. Lee isn’t missing more than 3/4 of the last 65 games. In ‘25 Bell had 4,5,4,3,4,2 HR’s over the 6 month season. His RBI & hits track the same. The drop-off in September is because he played in 12 games. 6 months of games played in ‘25 ……..27, 26, 25, 26, 24, 12.

70/75% RH pitching…….. they play the odds with platoons. Gray gets those starts & Kreidler isn’t an “everyday player” ….., at least he hasn’t been. Kreidler has been the choice in CF with Buxton out - until the last few games with the roll of the dice with Keaschall. I fully expect that the ONLY negative WAR player on the Roster (Gray) will be demoted fairly soon………either when Buxton comes back or if the Club promotes Arcia for more stability on defense when needed…….. everyone hopes for Culpepper by the end of July……..I’m good with Kreidler!! The organization likes stability. Moving Gray would be a real change for the ‘26 Club..,..,,, both Wallner & Lewis were moved down, so I expect a move with Gray. Jeffers getting moved will help Gray’s potential for staying in the Show. Bottom line is he’s not a very good defensive SS and his streaky bat has really cooled, hence the negative WAR.

.304 BA after 79 plate appearances in AA. 10 walks & a .844 OPS.

For sure, it’s Houston’s spot based on glove reputation & bat results to date. …… Culpepper in short-term (like 3-4 weeks) & Houston a year from now…….Culpepper to 2B.🤞🤞🤞🤞

Lewis, #1 pick, seems to be utilizing his talent again - running well - playing a pretty good 1B - has raised his Season BA 60 points since June 6th + 7 HRs. Nice to see. Seems to genuinely be thinking TEAM first! Lee, #1 pick, seems comfortable at 3B & is fairly clutch with RISP. He too, seems to be realizing the abilities that got him drafted with a 1st Rond pick. Larnach, #1 pick, and he’s confirming what he did in ‘24 in a platoon role ……..solid nearly EVERY game! Can’t draft a guy and hang with him & when he’s having his best year at the plate, trade him. It makes no sense! He’s making $4.5M ….. that might go to $7.75 next year, still cheap …… he should be a lock to DH v. RH pitching in ‘27! Bell hit in April & disappeared …… Caratini hit in April & disappeared…….. they are back! These two guys have been super effective since early June……huge shot in the arm for the club. Clemens keeps playing above everyone’s expectations - hitting a baseball is not easy & he seems to have found his lane with the bat & at 2B………very fortunate signing last year!! Kreidler’s glove has been versatile and is best used at SS. Pleasant surprise as a clutch hitter in a number of games to date…..,,Keaschall keeps increasing his BA & OBP & his move to OF makes him seem more comfortable in general! Jeffers is getting traded …… Gray is not good enough at the plate & particularly on defense to continue to stick with him after Culpepper is clearly healthy. Buxton will take Gray’s spot after the break (tough to carry one guy capable of playing SS though) & Kreidler plays SS everyday …… maybe Arcia comes back? Roden seems to be earning a spot going forward……. Gray is the only guy on the 13 man position roster with negative WAR…,,need to improve his spot somehow, soon!

Not as prominent in Twin’s fans view ……. the AL West is arguably worse than the AL Central………& the Tigers are coming. Twins can stay in this & with some positive back from a Jeffers trade in a couple weeks or less, things keep improving. An aside, normally a Ryan Jeffers trade would sink morale but Caratini & Jackson started daily for 60 games (recently) & winning % improved. I think ALL the guys know it’s just a matter of time. IF Bell was not hitting as he has last 6 weeks, they may keep him to push into Playoffs but Bell is going to get a long runway at DH for rest of the season.

Lewis has been back up since June 6th ……. he’s got 7 HR over 31 games. He’s got a very respectable .270 BA & .328 OBP….508 slug%. I realize people don’t want to overreact and “jinx him”! He’s still got a really loooong swing and doesn’t manage pitches away very well but there have been All-stars with same issues. Hope he continues to get better plate discipline……..oh, and he’s moved to 1B on the fly and played as well as anyone could have hoped for at a new position! A BIG, big plus for a Team trying to be competitive!

How many here thought Gomez wasn’t just another “scraps pick-up”??? Now, he’s the closer and 95% of people here hope for him to appear because Team has a chance to Win! Picking a guy up is normal for all organizations ……. it’s not any different than drafting a guy to then try and develop him….,.I don’t get anyone caring about this pick-up at all. Guys can be moved off 40-man just as easily as they are added. No big deal — fingers crossed, he works his way to Target!

Can always use a good pitcher but lefty need isn’t real strong (Rogers, Rojas, & Funderburk)……… for Red Sox to drop him, they have to think he’s washed in the short term……..doubt anyone picks him up until later in the month to give him a try, so he’s eligible for post-season……if he’s pitching better.

He’s got two months of control left……. don’t think he can bring back 4 guys.

He might want to work on a college degree if he doesn’t already have one.