Rod Carews Birthday

@Cody Christie I think you nailed it. I might tweak it to 100 games in CF with a few more as DH, but that's a minor issue. I just hope that if/when he is injured, he goes on the IL and is allowed whatever time he needs to get right. If he can play in the field, the rest of the numbers will surely follow. He also needs to be healthy (enough) come playoff time because that's when he could be a real difference maker.

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself). He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job. He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well. So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results. I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that. Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season. Was there an unreported injury? Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem? Was he trying too hard? Good Max is great. Bad Max is not. Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach.

This truly is a scary position. The lessons that (should) have been learned in the past few years are that when healthy, he is awesome and in the top two most valuable players on the team. When not healthy, he is not very good. Specifically, he was not a good everyday DH last year, part of which was certainly due to health but I also don’t think he’s wired particularly well for a role that takes him out of the action on the field. I think that Margot, Castro, and Martin are more than adequate backup players, so we should be reasonably insulated from a Buxton injury, which brings me to my point. When Buxton tweaks something, put him on the injured list. Don’t let him linger and push on. He is a thoroughbred not a work horse and playing semi hurt will not get him back to the player he can be. An occasional spot at DH like any other player is just fine, but having him clog up the spot, while being only semi-healthy and not hitting well has proved to be disastrous. Let’s not repeat that part of the process again this year.

What evidence can you cite that says that Brooks Lee is ready to come up and star in the major leagues? He has a career OPS in the minors of .814 (.731 in AAA) — quite a lot lower than “dominating” and ignoring the fact that he hasn’t hit lefties at all yet. When Byron Buxton was in the minors he was certainly highly touted. He had a minor league OPS of .880, and when he came to the majors, guess what. He couldn’t hit. OPS isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s a pretty solid one and a pretty universally accepted one. I recall that all of those trips back to the minor leagues were frustrating for both the fans and the player. So. . . .if he does come up to the majors, what’s his role. There are only two possibilities. Option #1 is that he comes up and replaces one of Castro or Farmer on the roster. Both of these players can and have played multiple positions on the field and have maintained offensive productivity while doing so. The potential rookie has played shortstop and third base only so far. Barring injury, that’s not much of a role. He probably gets less than 10 at bats a week and rides the bench. That’s going to be a very hard way to get acclimated to the majors and waste valuable development time and service time. I would personally rather not have the first year of his service time be devoted to coming off the bench occasionally to spell a veteran. We have guys to do that and they do it well. Option #2 is that he comes up and displaces one of the current starters. Shortstop? Nope, that’s Carlos Correa’s spot. Third Base? Nope, that’s Royce Lewis’ spot. Second Base? Well, he hasn’t played it and Eddie Julien has been one of our very best hitters for the past year, essentially taking the position away from Jorge Polanco. He could DH, but that seems silly for a young player that appears to be able to play some defense somewhere. What is it about the current Twins lineup that makes you think it is desperately in need of help from Brooks Lee? On paper it is both much stronger and certainly much healthier than it was last year at this time, and probably stronger than it was in the second half of last year when we were second only to the Houston Astros in offensive production. At this point, bringing up Brooks Lee is a downgrade offensively, removes flexibility defensively, and has the potential to stunt his growth in ways that would come back to haunt the team and the player. We obviously disagree, so I won’t continue to try to convince you otherwise.

Here is unfortunately where I think you might be wrong. I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for the Bears to pony up big money.

That’s the point. At a future date, Lee will deserve a starting spot and will get it. Hopefully he will do well and make us all happy. No, the specific players of Castro and Farmer are not keeping Lee in the minors, but since that isn’t the role for him, he’s not taking their spots on the roster. When he comes up, he is likely to play (almost) every day and not come off the bench in a number of positions.

You give the Bears a little more credit for their management skills than I do, but we’re in agreement that it’s indeed a Bears town. Something will eventually get done, but I’m not sure if we’ll all live to see it. In the meantime, be ready for lots of fits and starts.

The Bears franchise is basically inept, so I would take it all with a grain of salt. Since I moved here in 1994, there have been at least 4 or 5 instances when they were "ready to build" a new stadium and it didn't happen. The move to Arlington Heights to the former racetrack property was just a silly attention grabbing stunt. The bottom line is that Arlington Heights wasn't going to be willing to foot a bunch of the bill for the Bears (medium sized suburb, much smaller budget than the Chicago Park District) and the Bears weren't willing to do it without. I'll believe it when I see it that the Bears are putting in big bucks. This (video partway through the story) is what the Chicago Park District proposed a year ago when the Bears were running away from Chicago. It would be amazing and if I were the Bears I would BEG them to do it. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/photos-proposed-soldier-field-renovations-would-add-dome-to-stadium-new-transit-center-to-lakeshore/3039801/ As to the White Sox renderings, I think that's a pipe dream as well. None of the surrounding nice stuff has been built, nor is it likely to be built. Given that Chicago is a Bears, Cubs, Bulls, Sox/Blackhawks city -- in that order -- the odds of that happening are nil. In fact, Jerry Reinsdorf was at the capitol in Springfield lobbying state senators and the governor for money and he pretty much got his head handed back to him.

I think he has potential. His minor league stats don't warrant a rush to the majors. He's been solid, not great. Nothing so far suggests superstar. Superstars have stats that look like video game numbers and stick out above everyone else. He hasn't done that, YET. He is growing, and that's what the minors are for. My ultimate worry (for all of the hype created) is that he comes up and is "solid" but never a star. That can happen to a guy with a high floor but a possibly limited ceiling. That's not a useless player, but it would be disappointing and it could easily happen.

Excellent article. While I understand that players with the hitting profile of Matt Wallner are prone to more strikeouts and thus more regression, there isn't anything specific that makes me think that he is any more likely than anyone else to regress. Even though there is are a lot of Wallner doubters on TD, I'm hoping and thinking that Wallner can hold down a corner spot for years to come, whether that be left- or right-field. There are enough guys around that we can figure out the future when it appears.

It is really difficult to know what to do with players whose path was once that of a major league starter or even star but who has fallen to the point of possibly not being in the team’s (or any team’s) future. When at least part of the issue is tied to health/injury issues, it becomes even more difficult. If they can come back and duplicate their best early numbers, they are stars, but they can’t seem to show that it’s possible. It’s a conundrum for the player, the team, and the fans. I have the most faith in Kirilloff returning to form, since his latest injury seems to have been more minor and he has had the most recent success. I’m less sure about Miranda and I’ve learned to never bank on a pitcher (Alcala) having any predetermined production. The good news is that the Twins are mostly insulated against poor production from any of these players. Two will be at St. Paul, and one has lost much of his starting spot to Carlos Santana. Even Kiriloff’s supposed landing spot at DH can be covered by other players, possibly even another top prospect who has fallen from favor in Trevor Larnach.

Or even crazier, imagine if they just let Julien keep playing 2B! I think it is hilarious that it is just assumed that Julien is not long for the position. He may just claim it, keep it and frustrate everybody!

Well that’s confusing! How are all of the TD prognosticators supposed to make meaningful rash judgements if the team is going to sow confusion like that?

High school pitchers (or international signings of that age) are terribly difficult to wait for — especially for fans. I remember waiting and waiting for Berrios, as he was the “next big thing” seemingly forever!. Even if they are really good pitchers, it takes years for them to even hit AA, let alone the majors — and that assumes that they don’t get injured along the way. Between building up innings and developing pitches, there are so many pitfalls to avoid and overcome. All of that said, college pitchers are also far from a sure thing because they may or may not be developed well or properly. I think that taking a few of each is a reasonable play as a draft strategy. I certainly don’t have the statistics to back this up, but pitching seems to be much more difficult to draft than position players, but I don’t really see any way around the problem.

First of all, Castro and Farmer are backup players. They are neither assumed to be nor projected to be stars. They are, however, experienced and have proven ability to cope with inconsistent playing time across multiple positions while still maintaining solid offense and defense. That’s why they are valuable and currently a better fit for the team and actually, comparing Lee to them is a red herring, as they aren’t calling him up to sit on the bench. That would be short sighted and shameful. Second of all, what is it about Brooks Lee’s performance so far in the minors that makes you think he is ready to be “a superstar”. I like Brooks Lee. I think he might be really good at some point. I can’t see why he would have a giant breakout in the majors this year. Let’s compare: Eduard Julien had an OPS of .839 last year in the MAJORS. His career OPS in the minors was .924, including .932 at AAA St. Paul. Brooks Lee has a career OPS in the minors of .814 with an .808 OPS at AAA St. Paul, or more succinctly, lower in AAA than Julien had in the majors.. Lee has never sniffed a .900 OPS, while Julien’s lowest OPS at any minor league level was .891 over a half season at Cedar Rapids in his first taste of pro ball. Lee will improve. Give him time to do it so that he can be truly ready when he hits Target Field. If he comes up, rakes, and becomes the star we all hope, then someone will either need to find a new position (maybe him) or be traded for starting pitching (also maybe him).

True but Pedro Florimon didn’t have Carlos Correa’s historical production or talent. With some health I’m pretty confident about Carlos Correa.

I believe we should sign his brother, Joey Chestnut. He could be a real innings eater!

We may need to rush a pitcher this season if we have some injuries. Let’s hope that’s not the case. Since Brooks Lee probably isn’t an immediate upgrade over who we have playing in the infield currently, (which is unrelated to whether he will become a good player on the team in the future), it is better to save the service time, and continue the learning curve in St. Paul. We need to wait until the player is truly ready so that we don’t stunt his development. See Gomez, Carlos. He was rushed. We played him for a while unsuccessfully and then he left and became a star. Some additional time in the minors would have been useful, but desperate times called for desperate measures. These are not desperate times.

What I understand is that his age has nothing to do with it. By that measure it’s already too late because Mike Trout and Bryce Harper debuted at 19. Even Butch Wynegar was up by 20. Davey Lopes debuted at 27 and was an all star. He will be ready when he is ready. There is no hurry here.

Of the Twins’ shortcomings, depth at 2nd base is absolutely the least of them. That’s actually part of the reason that he ISN’T going to break camp with the Twins. Both Farmer and Castro are perfectly acceptable second basemen and would likely be starters on lots of teams. Julien, meanwhile, is a budding star who has proven that he belongs in the majors and there is no need to supplant him at the position. As to Lee’s hitting in the minors. He’s been solid, not great. Great minor league numbers are OPS’s in the .900 to 1.000 range or even higher. If he were in the majors with his current numbers, that would be excellent for a rookie, but he’s not there yet. Be patient. If the Twins are in search of a Rookie of the Year award (which they shouldn’t be, because that’s not always what’s best for a prospect), they should leave him in St. Paul all year and (hopefully) watch him really rake while getting more experience all over the field and learning to hit left-handed pitching. Then, next year when they bring him up, he will be fully ready and actually have a chance for that to happen. Most of all, I want him on the Twins team when he is ready, when there is a place for him to play on a daily basis, and when he will be able to be successful and not sent back to minors for more seasoning.

Even though he’s had his share of injuries I think that Carlos Correa can be counted on for a few things. 1. 100% effort. 2. Leadership. 3. No excuses. If he thinks he’s healthy, I’m willing to bet on him being a major part of the Twins’ offensive and defensive production this year. There are no sure things anywhere, ever, but he seems about as solid a bet as the Twins have.

Sign me up for this. I like guys who keep improving and really honing their craft.

So the last week or two of the season and the playoffs is the forward determiner for his career? His partial season is already a fairly small sample size but limiting it to a couple of weeks seems a little over the top. I don’t think that Wallner is going to be Babe Ruth, but he certainly has looked solid so far. There are going to be growing pains, not to mention a little nervousness at his initial call up. (If the Twins called me up, aside from proof they don’t want to win, I would be so nervous that I probably couldn’t even put my glove or shoes on properly.). His defense isn’t as good as a Buxton, Taylor, or Gallo. That describes most of the league’s starting outfielders. He’s not a butcher out there.

It has also been said that young pitchers are throwers and old pitchers are pitchers. With age often comes wisdom, or so I have been said to believe. While he may no longer be what is considered the athletic apex (which I'm certain varies from person to person), he certainly hasn't been worn out by too many innings and has plenty of physical ability, plus he's a "tall pitcher" and they take a little longer to develop. Randy Johnson went from "good" to "awesome" at age 29, so there is nothing to prevent Ober from going from "possibly good" to "very good" at a similar age. Johnson is a hall of famer and Ober won't be, but Ober could definitely have a lesser version of that kind of development. Johnson later proceeded to go from "awesome" to "ridiculous" at age 35, so chronological age isn't the only determiner of success.

I agree with this, and most certainly he will not be called up to be a full-time DH, even if he somehow forces his way onto the team. I think he will be in St. Paul for at least 1 to 3 months and then will get his shot, unless there is an injury that gives him a chance earlier.