Rod Carews Birthday

I think you are correct about that. My guess is that part of the trepidation is just Lewis having a little bit of the yips about the outfield since he got hurt there so quickly (and weirdly). I probably would too until I got used to the idea. Give it a little time and that flexibility may show itself again — or he may be asked to show it again!

I hope you’re correct. Max has at times demonstrated that he can be a top notch player, however, if there is one thing that he has consistently shown, it’s his ability to be inconsistent. I just don’t feel like you can ever count on a particular level of production.

I think it would be great to sign a “#10/Break Glass in Case of Emergency” starter to store in St. Paul. I’m most interested in Dallas Keuchel, as he was very useful in that role last year, and Jake Odorizzi, as he is also a known guy. Do these guys have anything left in the tank? Well, for Keuchel, he probably hasn’t changed much in the last year. . . I completely agree that I’m not interested in an old retread starter to come in and be the “new” 5th starter on the team. I only want one of these guys around for emergency purposes.

I am very pleased that the Twins didn’t get rid of either Vazquez or Farmer for this year. I think they were more valuable than keeping Polanco and are more valuable than Kepler will likely be this year. Farmer an excellent defender who can replace a number of positions (even for more than a day or two if necessary) on the field. His bat is the right match for what the team needs as well and it will probably be better this year if he can avoid getting hit in the face (ouch!). Vazquez is also a very solid defensive player who had a bad offensive season. However, his 65 OPS+ last year was well above the Drew Butera level (48 OPS+ for a CAREER), plus the potential for a bounce back is there. Camargo is waiting in the wings, but I doubt we’ll see a year that only uses two catchers again any time soon. His day will come. Either of these two could be starters on many teams and having them as bench players is immensely valuable from a production standpoint, and from an experiential standpoint they have much to offer younger players.

I agree. However I think we all know that GM’s are certainly nuts. Hence the irrationality I referred to earlier.

I like Lee. I think he has a chance to be good. However, calling him a possible "generational talent" seems like an impossible bar for him to achieve and a recipe for fan disappointment. That's one of the things that led to people being critical of Joe Mauer, who was an exceptional player. You're not just calling him a star or even a hall of famer, but someone who will be one of the icons of the game, and that's too much. Remember, if he isn't absolutely dominating in the minors (i.e. video game numbers), he is pretty unlikely to do that in the majors.

The ranking of potential impact is more than likely directly tied to whoever gets an opportunity to spend the most time on the 26 man roster. None of these guys are likely to get a shot without an injury (or several) happening at Target Field. However, we all know that injuries happen (we just can't predict who, nor timing and severity) so someone is likely to get that opportunity and if they spend more than a week or two on the roster, will likely be pretty good. The roster itself is strong enough that it is unlikely anyone currently on the 26 man plays themselves out of a job so I think it will all be tied to potential injury (or possibly a trade). I do agree that the most likely (and largest) impact could come from Louis Varland. He seems likely to get opportunities and seems to have the skills to take advantage of them -- aka Bailey Ober last season.

Trade value is often driven by age/service time/controllability and what is perceived as the potential upside. It's what makes some of the pitchers the Twins want so difficult to get. They are projectable and controlable (i.e. cheap), making them very valuable in trade -- many of them (perhaps most) are actually less valuable (in trade talks) once they pitch a year or two and don't show the same upside. Many of them never recover that lost value. Lee and Julien are much the same. The more he looks like "can't miss" with no service time, the more valuable he becomes. It's why Julien (who has absolutely done more at a higher level), may or may not be more valuable in trade than Lee, as Julien has some service time. As I said in my post, there is plenty of irrationality in trade talks and values, but if you're trying to make a trade, you have to buy into it.

I am in agreement with you, however, the question could be whether the Twins would be better off parting with one of Julien/Lee in a trade for a starting pitcher, and that's a really tough one to answer. If you can pull off an Arraez/Lopez type trade it's a no brainer, but it could also be a Mahle trade, which would be terrible. If you keep them both, you could have Julien/Lee/Correa/Lewis, with Kirilloff as DH for the next four years or so, which is a pretty good group if they are all playing to capabilities.

With a solid beginning to the season in St. Paul, Lee's trade value will likely be at it's peak, so that would be the time to pull off a trade if that is the direction they go. The question is whether Julien's proven success has a higher value than the potential for success that Lee represents, and that is an answer that is TBD. Trade markets can be a little irrational, so it's not a sure thing one way or the other.

Easily the position on the team that STILL has the most depth. The platoon of Julien/Farmer is really good and Lee/Martin/Castro/Hellman in waiting is hardly a problem as well. If all of the positions on the team were like this one, we would go very, very far.

For their career prospects, both Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach need to impress every chance they get. Neither are making the opening day roster, but they really need to mash at AAA to prove they are healthy and talented enough to make an impact when called upon. In the bullpen, there will be a scramble for the last spot, but the core of the bullpen is very strong (Duran, Jax, Theilbar, Stewart) so instead of fretting about four spots, we're really solid in three of those four. I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but the eighth guy in the bullpen. . . . ? I'm most concerned about guys who aren't fighting for jobs. How healthy are Correa's feet? Can Buxton play CF on a consistent basis? Is Kirilloff THE guy at 1B or is he just A guy who plays some 1B? Can the sophomore class (Julien, Lewis, and Wallner) avoid a slump? Those are (some of) the things that will determine the Twins' success or failure this season.

Not much is less exciting than a tie. . . In a spring training game that doesn’t count. Glad they got their work in, but yikes. . .

Sorry if this is mostly cross-posted, but I think the information applies. There are plenty of things to like about this deal. Here is how I see the various factions of it. #1. The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself. Doncon is younger with more offensive upside. Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found. That may change, but it hasn't happened yet. Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. #2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder. He's not someone to get excessively excited about, but he is a solid ball player. Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., and a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. #3. Prospect Blocking. Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland. If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside. In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there. DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA). If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. #4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA. They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul. This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason. IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot. #5. Setting the floor. We've seen this move a lot of times. Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's. Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. #5. Midseason moves. Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. I also think that Margo will wind up with more WAR this season than MAT, and I like MAT but he’s not getting any younger. Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move. You may not, and that’s OK too.

Thanks for the info. Nice concise summary of a complicated scenario. The technology and changes certainly can account from some of the skepticism from old, retired pitchers about today’s players. Change (and what they don’t understand well) can lead to that. I think you are right to question whether the lack of time off in the offseason is a good or bad thing. I get the benefits of not having to shake the rust off during spring training, but I also wonder if that time off to rest didn’t prolong the careers of many past pitchers in the league. It’s also hard to know whether the prevalence of TJ injuries/surgeries represents entirely new injuries or whether many of the career ending injuries of the past were actually the same but labeled as “dead arm” or “blown out arm”. There are always going to be outliers of guys who could pitch well in their old age (Neikro, Verlander, Ryan), but most don’t get there.

Boy, you don't look at the news for one day and the Twins make a trade! There are plenty of things to like about this deal. Here is how I see the various factions of it. #1. The straight up trade of Miller for Doncon is probably OK in and of itself. Doncon is younger with more offensive upside. Miller may have an MLB glove but right now his bat is nowhere to be found. That may change, but it hasn't happened yet. Besides that, we don't need a SS for awhile, so having a younger prospect is more useful/valuable to us than having one closer to the majors. #2. Margot is a decent 4th outfielder. He's not someone to get excessively excited about. Definitely a step above Garlick, Cave, etc., but a good insurance policy that can play all three OF positions and hit enough to keep a job. #3. Prospect Blocking. Margo blocks Martin in the same way that DeSclafani blocks Varland. If we give Martin the job, we have no backup plan at AAA with upside. In the same way that there is value in having Varland in AAA, there is value in having Martin there. DeSclafani is the fifth starter because it allows them to keep both him and Varland (who will be at AAA). If Varland is the fifth starter they have nothing to do with DeSclafani. #4. Player Development. This move tells me that they weren't ready to give Martin a job and want him to have some additional healthy time in AAA. They don't want him playing twice a week coming off the bench for the Twins, but would rather he played nearly everyday in St. Paul. This is true if they see him as a future important piece or if they want to trade him midseason. IF he's ripping it up in St. Paul, his trade value could go up a lot. #5. Setting the floor. We've seen this move a lot of times. Margot's floor is higher (or more consistent) than Martin's. Even though Martin's ceiling is higher, he is less of a sure thing. #5. Midseason moves. Santana, DeSclafani, and Margot are easy trade-aways at the deadline IF you no longer need them and could be filler for a more substantial trade move for a starting pitcher. Your mileage may vary, but I think it's a decent move.

I definitely agree with almost everything in this article, but it must be acknowledged that sometimes the biggest factor influencing team health is simply LUCK - good or bad or both. A great trainer will absolutely help to keep people in good shape health-wise, and will certainly help speed recovery, there are enough wildcard type injuries that can happen to really mess things up. Here's hoping for another fortunate year!

It’s not thrilling. It’s not sexy. But it sure is necessary. It’s a long season and if we want our pitchers to stay healthy and productive, getting them into this maintenance pattern is absolutely essential. Since this type of routine seems to be pretty universal among teams, I would be curious is there are any individual pitchers out there who do something radically different, just because that’s what they need/are used to doing. I also wonder how much/little this has changed from back in Bert Blyleven’s days with the team.

All of these things. I want him playing in the field and hitting 120+ games. A couple of additional stolen bases doesn’t help the team as much as having him available to play for more games. Steal in a key situation? Sure. We want Byron Burton doing Byron Burton things. But don’t use up the bullets in his chamber on less impactful things.

I do wonder what a package of Kirilloff, Gonzalez, one of the young AA pitchers, and a random reliever from our current crop might bring from someone. I don't think it makes sense to dream on Kirby or Luzardo, but there are probably others out there a little under the radar. It would be sort of the opposite of the Jorge Polanco trade.

Stu, your satire allows me to keep perspective. Bravo!

If he can continue to be a 4 WAR player for the next few years, he will be the player that we signed up for. A big MVP type season would be awesome, but I think that 6.2 WAR season was an outlier. Combine solid, consistent production with solid defense and big game leadership and he will be at the forefront of the Twins team for several years.

He will check a nice box in the lineup that is vastly underrepresented right now. That’s a great thing. Should have a solid BA and OBP with some decent doubles power as well. He could be a guy that helps the team a great deal.

This. Exactly. Chapman doesn’t fit. Montgomery wants to get paid like he’s a #1 arm, which he isn’t. Bellinger and Snell. . . . Which version do you get? The good or the bad? Way too uncertain to sign them for big bucks and big years. Save the money for now and see what happens by the trade deadline.

An article like this is a sure way to get some reactions! Wow! I agree with whoever it was that said the Twins are in need of a serious PR person who has some serious ability to talk truth to power. The positions that they are taking about wanting to "right size" things -- meaning make the budget fit the revenue, or being out on expensive last minute free agents -- really? we're surprised on this one?, are not ridiculous or unreasonable, but they are being handled/said/released in a very tone deaf manner. It would have been MUCH better had they just kept their mouths shut and let people guess. Being transparent isn't always the best idea, even if everyone tells us that it is. Lots of things are being said about negotiating a better TV deal or being able to afford contracts. Since the people who had the last TV deal went bankrupt, I'm sure people weren't lining up to write a bigger check this year. You can't will that into happening. Also, being able to afford something doesn't make it a good idea. I could probably afford a fancy car, but the prudent thing to do is to keep driving my Honda. Otherwise, I would need to make some other cuts to balance the books in my budget. Finally, somehow people have started to live in a black and white world. Things are great or terrible, with no in between. More money does make it really easy to put a playoff team on the field -- take for example the Angels or the Mets -- oops! It can also be done with a more modest budget with good talent acquisition and management. The sky is not falling, nor are we entering the land of milk and honey. Sometimes we all need to take a deep breath.