Rod Carews Birthday

You may disagree with the philosophy but there is no black and white in baseball, or in much else for that matter. A great pitching staff can get you a long ways in a season of baseball, but so will pounding the opponent into submission by scoring a lot of runs.. There are too many variables to each inning of each game to make any absolute statements. It is finding a good balance that leads to excellence and sometimes that balance tilts in a different direction. As for trading prospects at the deadline, an entirely new group of prospects may be available at that point because there is an additional half season of data available on them. For some previously “untouchable” prospects, the shine may have worn off and now they are tradable. For other previously unknown prospects, they may have come forward to shine and have strong value. Sometimes how different prospects develop means that others are now expendable. For example, do you think that the Twins wouldn’t have been better off trading Larnach, Miranda, or Winder when their values were at their peak? There is a certain additional degree of clarity that develops with more data from the minor leaguers (and major leaguers). It’s not an exact science to trade for pitching help during the season, nor is it easy to find a trade partner in the offseason. Free agents only cost money, but there is always a finite supply of that, plus, just ask the Red Sox how the Giolito contract looks now (and many, including me, thought that Giolito would have been a good target for the Twins). All of those free agent acquisitions didn’t work out so well for the Mets or the Padres or the Angels either and they all spent big bucks. It’s pretty easy to to throw rocks at the front office for every mistake that they make, but if you are going to do that, you need to give credit for the fact that they won the division last year and seem poised to do it again this year. At the end of the day (and YMMV) you have to decide if you are comfortable with the product on the field given the current team situation or if you think it is vastly underachieving. For me, I like the competitive baseball that we had last year and I will choose to cheer for that to continue. The team may look and feel a little bit different this year, but that’s OK. We won a division in 2019 by scoring a lot of runs, and we won last year by preventing them. Maybe a balance will be a better option and enable us to go a little farther.

Maybe he bet it all on the Blue Jays in the first game of the Twins playoff series last fall, and much to his surprise, the Twins came through!

Let's go Louie Varland! I'm pretty optimistic that he will do well in a starting role this year. News Flash! He's not going to win the Cy Young Award this year. That's OK. If you want to think of him as the "5th starter", whatever that means, then the bar is plenty low for someone just getting their first extended look. With the experiences gained last year both starting and relieving, he has the tools to do well. I'm certain that more than half the teams in baseball would take him in a second to be their fifth starter. A few years ago we might have looked at a young pitcher like Varland to be our second or third starter!

I am absolutely with you on taxpayer money being used for a new stadium. That's a no for me too, but I don't think that is going away anytime soon. However, you lose me on complaining about the BILLIONAIRES needing to cough up more money because fans don't like the way the roster looks. Let's play that out. Elon Musk owns Tesla. Should he make his cars only cost $10K because he can afford it? Should Apple make the iphones only cost $50 because they have plenty of cash on hand to do so? Whether we like it or not, the Pohlad family is running a private business that they are trying to make money with. They get to do whatever they wish to do, and since only two clubs in the majors have real transparency (not the Twins) we can kick and scream about it, but it only makes us sweaty and tired. I'm going to choose to enjoy the baseball and leave the business to the people with more money than me.

Because doing this is easy and everyone in the league is doing it? For the most part, pitching is in short supply all over and there are only a couple of teams that seemingly have sustained success developing a surplus. It seems to me that it is quite a lot better than it was a few years ago, but perfection it is not.

"It didn’t have to be this way. The Minnesota Twins could have carried over some of their pitching prowess from the starting rotation in 2023. Thanks to a lack of investment in the team on the part of ownership, though, the weight of the world now falls on the starting lineup. " When you have a budget, it's all about choices. If the front office feels like the hitting side of the lineup is likely improved, it lessens the need to spend more on pitching. I don't think that makes them sinister or even necessarily cheap. It seems quite realistic that the hitters overall will be improved (never a sure thing), so their choice is a reasonable one. The pitching staff is projected to still be on the upper end of the league, so I'm willing to go with it for now. If there is a problem that can't be solved later in the season we can trade for a starter at the deadline. People do it all the time. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

Apparently any article that brings up the Twins pitching staff will bring about the arguments that the Twins can’t develop pitching, the Pohlads are too cheap, we don’t look hard enough at the medicals, etc. etc. etc. People need to look at the arguments at face value instead of reverting to the same old, same old. 1. All pitchers are either injured or will be. This is undoubtedly true. In fact, it has been said that even a “healthy” pitcher’s scans will show damage to the elbow/shoulder. With the advent of better surgeries and recoveries, this isn’t the career ended that it used to be. Verlander has had a TJ. Mariano Rivera had a TJ. Many other very successful pitchers have had them. It’s an unfortunate part of pitching these days. It’s about catching the right player when he’s healthy. 2. The Twins aren’t willing to leverage their farm system to trade for pitching. This is also true, although I would argue that it’s about the degree to which they are willing. They have obviously made some trades, but when they don’t work out they get destroyed for making them. For every Mahle there is a Gray. It just doesn’t always work and it’s scary to trade front line prospects like Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez. 3. Big contracts don’t always work out. This is the understatement of the century. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can afford to eat a big contract (or two or three) for a player that doesn’t produce. A mid-market team can’t do that and the owners and management know this. It’s one of the reasons why the Twins are usually “out” on big money players, especially pitchers. Signing a couple of big name pitcher for big dollars that don’t perform could leave the team in last place in the central for a couple of years. I personally don’t want that. It makes baseball no fun at all. I lived through the late 1990’s. There are absolutely exceptions to these points, as there are to everything. If it was so easy to have a great pitching staff, everyone would have one. The reality is that the Twins starting staff was #2 in the league last year and this year is projected for a little lower but still easily top 10. If that is failing to do right by the pitching staff then sign me up.

These seem pretty conservative, maybe not as conservative as the CBS Sports projections were crazy, but generally VERY safe. Correa and Lewis leading the team in games played (if they can stay healthy) seems fairly reasonable, but Buxton as the #4 in games played seems pretty far out on a limb. Overall, they are planning for a lot of regression in the rate stats by some of our younger players and for the pitching to be just "ok", which is normal in projection systems when there isn't a long track record. I'm hoping that there are several players who outperform these predictions so the team can have a really good year.

I would sign up for this EVERY DAY! How many games would the team win if they all hit their projections? 110? That's crazy. I'm going to take the under but say that several players will have good years and the Twins will win 90 games.

In the short term, assuming both Thielbar and Duran are back on the field without major setbacks, the bullpen will get stretched a little in terms of high leverage arms, but I think they will survive. Some of those lower leverage guys will need to get pushed a little bit. In the longer term, it may (oddly) be a positive development. A few less miles on Duran and Thielbar come September and beyond might be good for their effectiveness going forward as well as some development of the other guys in the pen.

I think you are forgetting that Maeda was a mess for a big part of the season as well. You are correct in saying we had Ober ahead of Varland as well last year, but I'm not sure that Varland was necessarily thought of any higher last year than SWR/Festa/Headrick are this year, and now there are three of them. That does increase the odds of success. I do think that Lorenzen is a worthwhile starting pitcher (but definitely a little gun compared to the big guns out there), but I'm choosing to believe management when they say they are done spending this spring. We can wish all we want that it isn't so, but that doesn't make it change and we just wind up more frustrated. At some point imploring the front office to spend money to sign another free agent pitcher is a fruitless exercise. It's not suggesting that we trade Nick Punto for Mike Trout, but the results are the same and the frustration is probably higher when it doesn't happen.

They look to be in great shape against right handed pitchers. Hopefully they can get some traction vs. lefties as well. This may or may not relate to the DH position (although it could), but they are going to need to let some of the potential platoon guys (Julien, Wallner, Kiriloff) bat against lefties occasionally. Maybe they discover that one or more of them could develop some lefty/lefty batting skills. You can't do this all the time, but not all of the positions in the lineup are going to mash everyday anyway, so a little strategic lineup construction could have some long term benefits, even if the short term isn't so pretty.

How different is this to when Mahle went down last year? We have a young guy waiting in St. Paul who is largely unproven that can step in just like we did last year. It certainly worked fine and there’s a solid chance it will again. That’s one of the reasons that the Twins acquired an “extra” starter. Now that someone is injured (coincidentally the guy we acquired to be the “extra”), we plug in the next guy. I also think that it is in our best interest to have some starts by SWR, Festa, and Headrick this year. I would rather not have it be at the end of the season with the division on the line, but at some point those guys need to have a shot to see what they can do and so that the Twins can know what they can do. The odds of at least one of those guys being solid are pretty good, yet some are treating potential starts from them as being a disaster for the team. The payroll isn’t increasing, so the big guns aren’t coming in to save us, and we have our own little guns that are just as capable as the ones we might be able to sign by having a bake sale.

They're all going to pitch with the Twins at some point this season. Take the hot hand for now and let the St. Paul bullpen express begin!

Potentially losing DeSclafani for the season to injury is actually quite a bit less scary than losing Mahle was last spring. At the time Ober was mostly unproven and Mahle was thought of as a top end arm. Varland is also unproven but promising, and I don't really think anyone was counting on DeSclafani for a lot this summer. This moves Varland up the food chain and SWR, Headrick, and Festa potentially into the mix waiting in the wings in St. Paul. I'd rather have DeSclafani healthy than not, as he is a potentially OK arm, but I don't think this is the end of the world at all. On the other hand. . . if Duran is hurt for an extended length of time, I'm very worried. They have other "potential closers", but again it moves everyone up the food chain, and we definitely don't know if they are all ready for prime time.

No. That was good rest combined with a little bit of luck so it's probably not happening again as someone will get a little dinged up sometime (hopefully not a lot dinged up). But that's OK. We have a guy who should be a solid #3 in St. Paul to fill in. He will gain valuable experience by stepping in and the team will be better for it in the long term.

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@Cody Christie I think you nailed it. I might tweak it to 100 games in CF with a few more as DH, but that's a minor issue. I just hope that if/when he is injured, he goes on the IL and is allowed whatever time he needs to get right. If he can play in the field, the rest of the numbers will surely follow. He also needs to be healthy (enough) come playoff time because that's when he could be a real difference maker.

Max Kepler is a puzzle to me (and to everyone else, the Twins, and probably to himself). He has had basically 2 seasons of being really good and several seasons of being just barely OK and needing to play defense exceptionally enough to keep his job. He seems to be a smart and dedicated guy as well. So it seems crazy that his issue with hitting is some sort of conscious decision to try to hit in a way that will produce bad results. I don’t really think he’s dense enough or stubborn enough or egotistical enough to do that. Yet, last year in the middle of one of the worst stretches of his career, he catches fire and hits like crazy for 2/3 of a season. Was there an unreported injury? Did he take it upon himself be the guy who would single-handedly cure the team strikeout problem? Was he trying too hard? Good Max is great. Bad Max is not. Go Good Max!!! And don’t listen to anyone (even yourself) who suggests you change anything from last year’s approach.

This truly is a scary position. The lessons that (should) have been learned in the past few years are that when healthy, he is awesome and in the top two most valuable players on the team. When not healthy, he is not very good. Specifically, he was not a good everyday DH last year, part of which was certainly due to health but I also don’t think he’s wired particularly well for a role that takes him out of the action on the field. I think that Margot, Castro, and Martin are more than adequate backup players, so we should be reasonably insulated from a Buxton injury, which brings me to my point. When Buxton tweaks something, put him on the injured list. Don’t let him linger and push on. He is a thoroughbred not a work horse and playing semi hurt will not get him back to the player he can be. An occasional spot at DH like any other player is just fine, but having him clog up the spot, while being only semi-healthy and not hitting well has proved to be disastrous. Let’s not repeat that part of the process again this year.

What evidence can you cite that says that Brooks Lee is ready to come up and star in the major leagues? He has a career OPS in the minors of .814 (.731 in AAA) — quite a lot lower than “dominating” and ignoring the fact that he hasn’t hit lefties at all yet. When Byron Buxton was in the minors he was certainly highly touted. He had a minor league OPS of .880, and when he came to the majors, guess what. He couldn’t hit. OPS isn’t a perfect stat, but it’s a pretty solid one and a pretty universally accepted one. I recall that all of those trips back to the minor leagues were frustrating for both the fans and the player. So. . . .if he does come up to the majors, what’s his role. There are only two possibilities. Option #1 is that he comes up and replaces one of Castro or Farmer on the roster. Both of these players can and have played multiple positions on the field and have maintained offensive productivity while doing so. The potential rookie has played shortstop and third base only so far. Barring injury, that’s not much of a role. He probably gets less than 10 at bats a week and rides the bench. That’s going to be a very hard way to get acclimated to the majors and waste valuable development time and service time. I would personally rather not have the first year of his service time be devoted to coming off the bench occasionally to spell a veteran. We have guys to do that and they do it well. Option #2 is that he comes up and displaces one of the current starters. Shortstop? Nope, that’s Carlos Correa’s spot. Third Base? Nope, that’s Royce Lewis’ spot. Second Base? Well, he hasn’t played it and Eddie Julien has been one of our very best hitters for the past year, essentially taking the position away from Jorge Polanco. He could DH, but that seems silly for a young player that appears to be able to play some defense somewhere. What is it about the current Twins lineup that makes you think it is desperately in need of help from Brooks Lee? On paper it is both much stronger and certainly much healthier than it was last year at this time, and probably stronger than it was in the second half of last year when we were second only to the Houston Astros in offensive production. At this point, bringing up Brooks Lee is a downgrade offensively, removes flexibility defensively, and has the potential to stunt his growth in ways that would come back to haunt the team and the player. We obviously disagree, so I won’t continue to try to convince you otherwise.

Here is unfortunately where I think you might be wrong. I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for the Bears to pony up big money.

That’s the point. At a future date, Lee will deserve a starting spot and will get it. Hopefully he will do well and make us all happy. No, the specific players of Castro and Farmer are not keeping Lee in the minors, but since that isn’t the role for him, he’s not taking their spots on the roster. When he comes up, he is likely to play (almost) every day and not come off the bench in a number of positions.

You give the Bears a little more credit for their management skills than I do, but we’re in agreement that it’s indeed a Bears town. Something will eventually get done, but I’m not sure if we’ll all live to see it. In the meantime, be ready for lots of fits and starts.