Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Rasmus stuff might be convenient narrative -- do we really know he has "all the talent in the world"? I think for a lot of guys, failure or even streaks of success and failure are pretty much their full potential. Not everyone can succeed or sustain success, that's just not the way MLB or life works. I certainly wouldn't dedicate a lineup spot and $10 mil to enlist an attitude adjuster to try to achieve that ideal. And the examples often cited around Hunter -- Puckett to Hunter, Hunter to Span, Hunter to Trout -- seem pretty mild in this regard. I am sure the mentored player appreciated it, but none of those guys experienced the wild on-field performance trough/swings of a Hicks or a Rasmus. In this field, and at this level, that's not something a friendly mentor is really going to make a dent in. On the field, the overwhelming factors are your own talent and skill, with the possible wildcard of expert level coaching which I wouldn't expect from anyone let alone a fellow active player.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The salary was probably close to "market rate." MLBTR estimated 2/22 for him. Alex Rios got 1/11 from KC. I think we would have waited to sign him, though, if on-field production was really the chief concern. You may not have gotten a better/cheaper player, but I think it was important to at least try to find a more complimentary skill set for our current roster. Our first priority this offseason definitely should not have been another corner-only, bat-first player. Someone who could realistically slide over to center if needed, someone who won't need to take DH at-bats (we have perhaps 4 of those guys on the roster already).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Baseball might be the most individual "team" sport there is. Garnett can actually play against his teammates in practice, feed them opportunities during games, contribute to the playbook on their behalf, etc. Hunter is basically just another coach who can observe and comment, which can be helpful but is also incredibly difficult once you start talking about individualized hitting/pitching mechanics that have taken years to develop. (I think that's why hitting/pitching coach positions are often so tenuous too.) I think the most tangible effects such a player can achieve in baseball are defensive advisor and clubhouse greeter.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    He IS 39. Turns 40 in July.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Johan is actually 2 weeks shy of turning 36...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    More thoughts on this: The Red Sox were already over their pool limit before signing Moncada. So they would have faced the same penalty whether they signed Moncada or not. And the penalty doesn't reduce or eliminate their pool amount (estimated to be $3.5 mil in 2015), it simply limits them to $300k per player. That can still get plenty of guys ranked not far outside of BA's top 30. Cleveland signed 6 guys on the first signing day last summer without going over $300k for any one of them, as far as I could tell. Boston (and the other teams facing penalties) will still be able to load up on guys in that range, no problem. Furthermore, for trade purposes there are bonus "slots" and Boston will still be able to trade all of their slots to other teams, even above $300k. I estimate Boston will have slots of $1.8 mil, $700k, and $450k next season that they can trade to teams not facing any signing penalties. Also, for the top MLB teams by winning percentage, the bonus pool allotments are already quite small. For example, the Angels likely have a $1.8 mil bonus pool for next year, which would barely be enough to get one Lewin Diaz (ranked #15 by BA). They are already practically limited to maybe one top signing each year under that limit, and probably none in the top 10. No wonder that it has generally been good MLB teams that are accepting this penalty (NYY, BOS, LAA, TBR, TEX when they were good -- only the Cubs have really been the exception so far).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. His wRC+ ranked 10th out of 21 qualified RFers in 2014, and 14th of 23 in 2013. Not exactly a level that allows for much age-related decline.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think his numbers are knocked down by his soon-to-be age 40 -- a number that is pretty easy to put faith into but you seem quite willing to resist doing so. Seriously, how many 40 year old FA signings have ever been worth $10 mil in on-field performance? Even the ageless wonder Paul Molitor wasn't worth much on the field in his age 40 season. Also, in addition to ranking 7th on the 2014 Twins, Hunter's "very good" 2014 offensive numbers (Rbat) ranked 74th (per PA) out of 149 qualified MLB batters last year. While his 2015 salary would have ranked 42nd in the same group (and second among Twins batters!).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter's 2014 Rbat, on a per-PA basis, would have ranked 7th on the 2014 Twins. That's just pure offense -- no fielding, no positional adjustments. If not for Mauer's collapse, Hunter would have ranked 8th, worse than our primary 2014 starter at all three outfield spots, and only better than our C and SS. Basically, for on-field performance, the Twins appeared to make finding a healthier but much older (and more expensive) version of Willingham a top offseason priority.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Davis is very much an outlier, and only 26 when he converted. I'm all for giving Pelfrey a shot in the pen, especially if it keeps him out of the rotation, but I can't help but feel if he really had plus potential out of the bullpen, someone would have tried it with him by now. He hasn't been particularly useful as a starter for the last 4-6 years, and great relievers weren't exactly undervalue before now. Davis is not the right example to use, and I am not sure who is. Zach Duke was 31 last year, but even that feels like quite the outlier (and he's a lefty).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, signing Torii to play OF this year isn't the only piece of evidence we have. TR also signed Willingham to play OF, and Doumit to play... anywhere. Kubel and Colabello were penciled in as OF options last offseason, etc. Not to mention the Delmon Young era. I think they are habitually a little too willing/eager to punt OF defense, or at least sub-optimal at getting bats into the lineup without punting OF defense. While I tend to believe that TR has no qualms with Torii's defense, I have to agree with others, that ultimately Torii to the Twins is the equivalent of Garnett to the Wolves right now. It's putting butts in the seats on eyes on the tube, and maybe some fun into the locker room.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    We know that their #2 in command and recent interim GM (presumably with TR's blessing) went on the record as preferring RBI to SLG as a predictive statistic in 2010. i have to imagine they are better than that now, but dismissing defensive metrics for the "eye test" still seems very plausible for this front office.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if you bring a stroller, feel free to check it with guest services so you don't have to lug it around, although I usually just left the stroller in the car in favor of the baby carrier. Nursing mothers can also use a private room at guest services too -- I think my wife reported that the lower deck guest services station, behind home plate, was the best for that? Finally, while they are usually pretty restrictive about bags and beverages coming into the stadium, I have never had any problems bringing in our fairly large diaper bag with juice/water/milk/formula/etc. in any container.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I had the opposite experience. Especially if the game covers nap time -- just wear a baby carrier like the Baby Bjorn and the kid can just sleep on you. Heck, we even went to 7 PM games, let the kid doze on me around her 8:30 bedtime as we stayed to watch the rest of the game. This way, you can sit where you want too -- the baby carrier plus a hat will shade the kid (although it can get warm for both you and the kid in the summer!). I've also found that ushers never checked my ticket while I was wearing the child in a baby carrier, so I bounced around different sections too. The kid didn't really start enjoying the game until she was about 2, though. And then it helped a lot to have another kid there to play with, and some small toys and snacks, of course. Keep your eyes peeled for TC Bear too -- my girl was scared of him at first but warmed up pretty quickly and looks forward to the visit. (We also tried to score cheap dugout box seats so the kid could actually see some of the players -- thanks Ticket King! Have to be alert in those seats, of course.) The ushers and guest services booths are totally awesome too -- not only do they have some supplies if you forget any, they will also give you little temporary tattoos and other things to occupy the kid's time. (Again, probably not for a one-year old, though!)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Is the wall/overhang really that big of a deal? I am recalling some of the plays I saw him miss / "make" in RF and the overhang barely enters into it.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, I am sure he said he was feeling good last spring too, or would have if he was asked. Same for Mauer, Pelfrey, etc.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "Hardly ever" seems like a massive overstatement. Going back to 2011 (when it became clear that the Twins needed SP reinforcements), looking at free agent SP signing 3+ year contracts, I see the following 9 which have worked out more or less just fine (some of them great): Buehrle Sanchez Greinke Lohse Guthrie Hughes Garza Vargas Wilson And I see only the following 3 failures so far (although all of them still have multiple seasons to rebound): Nolasco Jimenez Jackson
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    You make a good point on trailing statistical indicators, but I am not sure if it has to take THAT long to see statistical evidence. This is the 4th offseason in a row where the Twins have made significant additions to the MLB starting rotation -- I think it's entirely reasonable to suggest that if the Twins front office fully committed to a changed analytical approach a few years ago, they would have caught up more by now in this regard. (Changing only their draft strategy, but not the MLB strategy, would be a sign of partial commitment and some continued skepticism, IMO.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I am wrong, but Gardy has spent his entire post-playing career with the Twins, in his wife's home state, and I do not recall him ever pursuing or being pursued for a job elsewhere, despite a fairly long tenure in minor positions and not being obviously groomed for the top job (Molitor had been rumored as a likely replacement for TK). Do people here really see Gardy putting in the work of procuring a job elsewhere? Much less teams flying in to MN to try to convince him to leave his home. He was a fine fit for the Twins, but seems like an unlikely participant in the "executive search" process by which modern teams hire their managers.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I hear you -- but isn't trailing going to be a permanent characteristic of the skeptic team? Right now it is K rate, in a few years it could be something else that we are playing catch-up in.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Gardy does not strike me as ambitious enough to work at getting a job outside the Twins (and that goes for national broadcasting work too).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    interestingly Boston's bonus pool was only 1.8 million dollars anyway, compared to 5+ mil for the worst teams. So these new penalties probably won't affect them too adversely.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario had a .407 BABIP and only .080 ISO in the AFL (not to mention roughly a 5% BB rate and 20% K rate). It was encouraging after his rough season, but that is not "elite" or "breakout" in any sustainable way, certainly not worthy of skipping him to MLB right away.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Tell that to the folks who are gushing over Stewart's strong H/9 rate and solid BB/9 rate. It's weird, how we all acknowledge that Stewart was very far from a finished product coming out of HS, yet many also insist upon explaining away the evidence so far that suggests he could end up a lower K pitcher (albeit perhaps a reasonably successful one). At this point, that seems like a far more likely scenario to me than the notion that the Twins shelved his best pitch for a full season to work on fastball command when he allowed little good contact all season anyway, or for speculative health reasons when they were already limiting his pitches and innings anyway. Not a knock on Stewart, I just wouldn't hold my breath for Meyer/May level strikeout numbers from him. He could still have a solid future ahead of hin regardless.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To the complete exclusion of allegedly his best pitch, for an entire season, an entire level of competition? Even if that's not the Twins goal, it is a side effect of this "devote a year to only fastball command" approach.
×
×
  • Create New...