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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so either, but plenty of guys/pitches/skills that evaluators love in HS don't succeed in the pros. I would be surprised if those evaluators thought Stewart's slider could be skipped to high-A straight from HS competition, which is essentially what the Twins are doing. Imagine a raw hitter who hit for a ton of power is HS, but little power and a high AVG in his first pro season, and he and his team said "we are just working on contact now." The promise of future power would be met with some skepticism at that point. (Although even power is something guys often "grow into" more than a slider for a top draft pick, I think.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    He was pretty bad in AA last year, and showed very little plate discipline in the AFL. I would be very surprised if he is among the best MLB rookies this year. After so many prospects disappointing us, I think Danny Santana is skewing expectations the other way.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems like a big contradiction there. He's young and unpolished, yet somehow we know the slider is good? A pitch he has barely thrown to pro batters? And this pitch more than any other informs us of his ceiling. I am not surprised if some evaluators are less aggressive in ranking him at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins were being super-cautious with his health, as he is their most expensive amateur pitcher ever. But it also wouldn't surprise me if the Twins were willing to sacrifice some potential upside in the process too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Shelving Stewart's slider in A-ball last year because it is so good would be like DHing Buxton in 2013. A skill has to be demonstrated before it is protected, right? Or, telling Buxton just to make contact on his swings, and we will worry about power later (in 2013 mind you, before he even demonstrated power out of rookie league ball).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, this assumes his slider is already so good that it doesn't need any work in the pros, or at least that he can skip working on it in game situations at his first full season level. That seems like a pretty huge assumption, especially for a raw 18 year old HS quarterback. Maybe if he had previously demonstrated the skill, like Liriano or Meyer, I understand working on other offerings or protecting the arm. But at this point, it feels like counting chickens before they hatch. If I were a prospect evaluator, I would have to factor in the concern that his slider may not be that great/consistent/sustainable, which would take a big bite out of his projected value.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Triples are definitely more fun, but they are also more fickle. Less sustainable, faster to fade, etc. I would take the HR for his long-term value.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be a good problem to have! Depending on the nature of their debuts, some of them may return to AAA to begin 2016 which could push their clock back.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Whatever anyone says, I would be very skeptical that someone with a great slider simply wouldn't use it in his first full year as a pro. It's not a video game item that he can save for later-- it is a very integral part of his potential success as a pro, and nobody has even seen how it plays in a game yet.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, they ranked Stewart 52 last year. I don't think a 101-115 ranking is that crazy for him, at this point. And I don't know if such a ranking is materially different than, say, an 80.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't it pretty unusual for a top prospect to make a full season debut with that low of a K rate? Not sure if he deserves much benefit of the doubt yet -- he was a high school draftee, so he was basically all projection. First full season results matter, and guys do not get high rankings based on low-A H/9 rate alone.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Pitch framing has the largest data sample of any event on the field, and thanks to pitchfx, it is also the most precisely measured right now too. I am sure it is not perfect, but not sure if it is fair to lump it in with DRS/dWAR.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if the Dodgers offered him anything, though.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Mack was hurt to begin 1994, not at the end. Although he did seem to break down within a few years anyway.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't wade into the debate, but this was an interesting look at old school pitch framing: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/pitch-framing-technique-tips-milwaukee-brewers-jonathan-lucroy-021715
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure no team adds a Lester that often. And the Cubs don't need to either. They had Samardzja but chose to deal him, they added Hammel cheaply, already had Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Wada... Not aces, and room for improvement, but not some desperate dearth of SP either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not just payroll flexibility, but MLB talent too. The Cubs already had a few decent/affordable arms before adding Lester -- it's not like they were the 2012-2013 Twins. They weren't desperate for top pitching prospects, and probably wouldn't be for a couple more years regardless of finances.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I see 79 players with 55 or better FV, not 28. Still very good to have 6 of them.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure I have read about the Cubs system being position player heavy. Not sure what you want these lists to do about it. You can weight pitchers more and produce your own list if you want, but aren't hitters generally considered more reliable as prospects anyway?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Top CF is not Buxton's only path to value. Top closer is about Burdi's only path. Same for Meyer too -- more possibilities for MLB success, and his top ones are more valuable than Burdi's one path too.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone's road ERAs look like Correia's Twins ERAs. They aren't that great in the current run environment (although if he was 5th by performance, meaning 4 guys were better, that would be nice but wouldn't have much to do with Milone).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty sure they don't survey bettors -- this isn't election polling. I would guess they use experts and computer models (which may include past bets as an input).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    It hasn't been easy staying in our rut!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I would agree that power should not be a positional requirement. However, I would also say that improving his power might be the "easiest" way for Rosario to be an acceptable MLB contributor soon. He can't expect to hit .320 in MLB like Santana, nor can he expect his walk rate to reach heights it has never seen before, nor can he expect to be a defensive wizard right away either. His power, on the other hand, was decent at AA last year, was a plus for him at A ball, and a big plus for him in rookie league ball.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario can also post the highest MLB BABIP (min 400 AB) in almost 40 years? Almost no one can be what Danny Santana was last year. Also, Santana had a .153 ISO last year, basically equal to Rosario's AA ISO, better than his 2013 AA ISO, and almost double his 2014 AFL ISO. Rosario is capable of hitting a few more HR but his overall "power" in MLB is unlikely to be better than Santana's 2014 mark.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    His OPS dipped by 70 points, not his SLG. And that dip was basically entirely AVG/OBP -- his isolated power at AA actually increased from 2013 to 2014.
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