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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Really not sure where that list came from, Torii 2014 was bested in fWAR by Santana, Willingham, Arcia, and even Fuld. Even just by wRC+ (offense only), he's well behind Santana, tied with Willingham, and only nominally ahead of Arcia. Best case of Torii on the 2014 Twins, we dump Willingham before the season and save ourselves from 40 games of Kubel etc. taking Willingham's place while hurt, but then again we also quite possibly don't reluctantly claim Fuld.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Where did I argue such a thing? Hey, I endorsed the trade, I am fine with the contract, I say let him compete for the job. But comparisons to Buehrle and Rogers are pretty off-base at this point. They should help Milone's case about as much as a Randy Johnson comp should help Meyer's (read: none).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR. Heck, a quick check of B-Ref WAR shows that Willingham beat Hunter handily in half the PA, and Arcia edged Hunter too in fewer PA. Adding Hunter to the 2014 Twins would have been at best a lateral move (trading Willingham earlier), and possibly a negative move if it removed opportunities for Arcia, Santana, and Vargas. And for 2015, it is mostly a latetal move, maintaining many of the frustrating characteristics of our outfield the past two years.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer never had the best hair on the team, unless your judge was Floyd the Barber.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, FIP and xFIP are not league or park adjusted. You can't compare one from Oakland 2012-2014 and compare it to one largely compiled in Chicago 2000-2011.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Buehrle is pretty good, but he is an outlier at that profile. You can find a dozen young MLB pitchers with similar profiles and none will match even a quarter of what Buehrle has done.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Like the starting pitching situation, OF defense doesn't hinge on a single decision at a single moment in time. Perhaps there was nothing better than Hunter in November 2014, but the OF defense had been a clear need for at least 2 years by that point.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Willingham mention had 2 points: 1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center) 2. And having lots of those types has caused problems over the last few years too. With an uncertain situation in CF, it has been especially difficult to have corner guys unable to slide over to help (and in fact probably need the help of a plus CF). And it makes fielding a solid across the board defensive OF, even.just for an inning or two, virtually impossible because we can't roster that many glove caddies at once. Yet what was our #1 offseason priority? Signing exactly this type of player again. Agreed it was not necessarily easy to get a better guy for a similar cost, but evidence suggests we did not try too hard, and we probavly could have found a guy who was a better FIT for our current roster even if he was not a better overall player than Hunter.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The key will be getting them doing other stuff, meetings, prepping for the game, etc. The rule itself is pretty superfluous, and not helpful if the guys just sulk or zone out instead. Again, I think winning is the best way to bring focus.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Are those new rules set down by Molitor? Otherwise, I am not all that confident that I can really detect the changes you are describing, at least not based on the minimal roster changes we made. Torii will be a familiar name and face that we fans associate with winning, but that is about the extent of it, I think.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Toro is back? I'm holding out for the return of the Snapper Mow 'Em Down Inning.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to the thread topic, I loved the 2000-2007 Twins, but that attitude/leadership/culture was built organically. I would not have been excited about the 2000 Twins bringing back Gary Gaetti for such a role, for example. Though I admit people I know are excited about Hunter's return, I do not think that excitement will last if he and the team do not beat projections this year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Outside of Clete, those guys got very few at-bats. And they never really comprised our whole outfield --we got similar or better production than Hunter from Willingham the past 3 years. Heck, even Doumit's 2012 was similar to Hunter's recent efforts. I would have liked to have seen an effort to get a better player (even just one who could cover CF) or at least one with more of a (playing) future in MN. Or compliments Arcia in skill set.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Would the Twins have been lucky to have Willingham? Hunter's overall 2014 offensive contribution was basically the same as his, on a per-PA basis. Willingham 2014 was basically the same as Hunter 2014 at the plate and not-disasterous Hunter 2013 in the field, minus 40 games for injury. Was our one dimensional veteran outfielder missing 40 games to injury was a key problem for our 2014 season? Worth addressing in our first offseason move by adding a soon-to-be 40 year old with a history of good health?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't count it out either. But Willingham had comparable performance and worth when he was on the field last year too. I don't know that anyone was clamoring to replace his performance/role for 2015. I might rather have a guy who is only "worth" $6M in 2015, but has some upside/potential for on-field performance beyond 2015. Or at least offers a complimentary set of on-field skills to help our other players look better.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter seems to fare better by wRC+ than Rbat too. By Rbat per PA, among guys who played some OF in 2014 (okay, I threw out Adam Dunn ) and had 300+ PA, Hunter ranks roughly 26th (out of 61, although that it's artificially long with some utility guys like Escobar near the bottom). And he's behind our regular 2014 CF (Santana), LF (Willingham), and RF (Arcia).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, defensively, by DRS I notice that Hunter took his first real dip in 2010 (perhaps not coincidentally, the year he began moving off CF). 2011-2012 he graded well in RF playing next to Bourjous/Trout. Then 2013-2014 he declined next to mainly Jackson but also some Don Kelly, Avisail Garcia, and Rajai Davis, who did't grade out well in CF and perhaps had to compensate more for the left fielders...? So even if you don't fully "buy" the measure of Hunter's defense the past two years, I don't know if he's a good fit for a full-time spot in our outfield mix, where our CF will likely be tentative (Hicks), inexperienced (Rosario), or mediocre (Schafer), and there may be a lot of LF hand-holding and compensation required. And perhaps four other bats clamoring for DH at-bats (Vargas, Pinto, and Arcia, plus Mauer for health).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And Hunter's 113 wRC+ was equal to Willingham's last year, a guy who cleared waivers in August and retired at season's end. Willingham was admittedly less healthy but also 4 years younger. And even though Willingham's defensive numbers weren't that bad last year (DRS approximating Hunter's 2013), he still only projected at about a 2 WAR player over a full season. How would you have felt if the Twins brought back Willingham to start in an outfield corner?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter wasn't bad last year with the bat, but he was only 13th in the AL out of 27 qualified AL OF in wRC+: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d Lower the PA threshold to 300 and he was 20th: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=300&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, forgot about 2011. In any case, Cuddy's post-game presser magic that year did not make it any more bearable. (What made it bearable, at least more than 2012-2014, was the recency of our 2010 success, and the fact that we climbed to only 5 games back of the division lead in late July.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt that Rasmus's career started promisingly. But achieving an .800 OPS once or even twice doesn't mean you have the talent to be a perenniel .800 OPS hitter. Both came with extreme career high BABIPs, and the latter of which came with an almost 30% K rate. And his history doesn't suggest this is a recent trend. He wasn't all that great in AAA at age 21 or MLB at age 22, and his K rate explosion at age 23 arguably helped him finally achieve the ISO and BABIP spikes that have kept him in the majors this long. Some guys are just boom and bust. And some guys just bust. And Torii Hunter providing a welcoming clubhouse presence isn't going to change that much. I just fear the spate of articles blaming Hicks even more for not listening to Hunter if his performance doesn't turn around this year.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I remember we moved Delmon off of right. He hadn't played a single professional inning in LF before joining the Twins. Not that it would have made a huge difference, but he was basically average by DRS in his ~1 season in RF for Tampa. (But we already had Cuddyer averaging -10 Rdrs installed in RF, so...) FWIW, the Orioles depth chart has Delmon listed 4th at RF, and 2nd at DH. I don't think he's going to see much action in the field.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, post-2005 or so. Cuddy taking over in 2006, and Kubel the next year, and Delmon the year after... they really started piling bats in the OF at that time. Which was especially strange since the bats in question weren't really all-star level strong to compensate for the bad defense, nor did they seek particularly strong everyday DH options either. Gomez, Span, and Revere briefly felt like some pushback against that -- until all 3 were traded, with Hicks as the only decent glove replacement added to the mix, hardly enough to offset Willingham, Doumit, Parmlelee, Arcia, etc. It's quite clearly not a one-offseason thing, Hunter vs. Rasmus/Bourjous/whomever. Kinda like how our SP woes were not isolated to Correia vs. Edwin Jackson at one moment in time either.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd agree, but that's not really the issue facing the Twins now. They're not building a team from scratch and making priorities. They have a team, with a good offense last year, great defense around the infield, and a great quantity of pitchers. But they had one clear opening on the club, OF with the departure of Willingham, and a pretty obvious lack of acceptable corner OF defenders (and possibly any acceptable OF defenders at all, if Hicks's bat doesn't play). But the team apparently looked at clubhouse attitude and player-mentor as a much bigger weakness. That, to me, feels closer to the perceived "proven closer" and "infield speed" weaknesses we felt we had to address in 2010-2011, as opposed to a real, tangibly addressable on-field weakness.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I am guessing you never had to listen to an interview of Cuddy or Hunter during a last-place season. Nor did they ever have to give one. (Well, maybe Hunter as a rookie, or Cuddyer in Colorado -- do you think Rockies fans were placated by Cuddy's post-game musings the past 3 years?) Just like how Souhan said the Twins missed Hunter's presence the past 4 years... conveniently ignoring the previous 3 years when Hunter was gone but we still won and nobody complained much about clubhouse culture and team attitude.
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