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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not another real outfielder instead of Nunez? A second backup infielder, who brings nothing more to the table that your first backup infielder, isn't terribly helpful. And if the plan is "sometimes we want to use our backup infielder in the outfield", that's not a good thing either!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This has been an abundantly clear outcome since the day he was signed.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    This was a choice? The Twins couldn't have given May's 2014 starts to Pelfrey if they had wanted to, ditto for Milone. (They COULD have given Pelfrey's starts to May, however.) The Twins "invested" 49 starts in 2014 -- 30% of their season! -- in pitchers who were no longer with the club by December and returned zero value upon their exit (except nominal cash and a waiver fee).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I know TR got his "Trader Terry" rep back in the 1990's, but even then, he didn't sign many guys and trade them a few months later. I think Hollins and Morgan were the only notables to be flipped like that. A few more guys spent multiple seasons as Twins before getting dealt: Carrasco, Swindell, Kelly, Myers. And he signed a bunch of other veterans that he never traded: Steinbach, Molitor, Tewksbury, Nixon... And given his guaranteed starting role and history here, the Hunter signing is almost certainly in the Steinbach/Molitor mold rather than the Hollins/Morgan one. (Which is why some are speculating Torii might be in Minnesota for multiple years now, as Steinbach and Molitor each finished their careers with 3 years here, Molitor until age 42).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hendriks is obviously no great shakes now, so it is easy to say "they evaluated him correctly" but look who else we started in those losing seasons. It would have been akin to demoting Hicks and Dozier as they struggled a month or so into each of their first two seasons, in favor of Mastroianni and Casilla or something.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you're on to something. They haven't had a whole of comparable pitchers, but Liam Hendriks seemed to have a much shorter leash than, say, Dozier and Hicks. Both Dozier and Hicks started for 3-4 months straight as rookies, posted an awful ~65 OPS+, and were demoted to AAA in August. Then both returned to the MLB lineup to open their second seasons and struggled for 2+ months without losing their jobs. Meanwhile, Hendriks got 4 starts to close 2011, but only lasted a month (4 starts) into 2012 despite an obvious SP shortage, and only lasted 2 starts into 2013 (and only due to Diamond's injury) despite an even more obvious SP shortage. It took 2+ seasons for Hendriks to accumulate the same MLB time as Dozier and Hicks did in just over 1 season each. The whole time, his ERA+ was in the same ballpark as Dozier/Hicks OPS+, and his Sickels prospect grades were comparable too.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Calling up a consensus top prospect might overshadow any Torii transaction, certainly. But I wouldn't say "no PR hit". Their PR in that scenario would be best if Buxton was recalled and Hunter stayed (think of the mentorship!). And at this point, Buxton's timeline is so up in the air, I doubt it was a consideration when signing Torii. I stand by my statement that Torii was not signed to be traded. I doubt the team has any hopes/plans to do so, regardless of their hopes/plans for Buxton.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The White Sox top 4 WAR guys from 2014 (Abreu, Sale, Quintana, and Eaton) are under team control for 5, 5, 6, and 4 more seasons, respectively.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It was Kwak's general point. I was just refuting the "Gibson beat 3 veterans last spring" example. We've definitely lacked pitching talent recently, although I'd say Hendriks should top your list of recent inexperienced guys who had a short leash.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's a fair observation. Last spring, all of the guys legitimately in the mix for the rotation had started games within the first 13 days of spring training, with the exception of Deduno who didn't start a game all spring (and I don't think was ever a serious rotation candidate, barring injury). That includes Gibson. This year, we will reach that point tomorrow (Wednesday March 18) and the only official starters at that point (assuming the next two days probables are correct) will be the six returning veterans (Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey). (Actually, last year, Gibson got his first official start at the same time Pelfrey is now scheduled to get his first this year.) We're pretty near the decision time with May and Meyer. I think it is already pretty clear they're not cracking the rotation without an injury or trade, but if they don't start a game by the end of the week, it will be all but official.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Another point: those three "vets" that Gibson beat were all making the league minimum salary, just like Gibson. At this point, barring trade or injury, Milone or Pelfrey is getting the 5th starter spot.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Two of those "vets" had already failed and been demoted the year prior. The third "vet" had never pitched a full MLB season before. (Actually neither Diamond nor Deduno had a full MLB season under their belt. Only Worley did in that group, and it was one injury-shortened season.) If you think that is a great example of the team trusting an inexperienced talent over an established vet, I believe you are mistaken.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Free agent deals are fully guaranteed. Only year-to-year pre-FA/arb players can be released with termination pay before April 1st (like Nunez).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    You don't have to have your TV turned on to notice a trade. And I wasn't speculating on ticket sales or TV ratings. Just simply stating that trading Hunter would probably be another PR hit for very little (if any) on-field gain. The people that posted excitedly to Facebook when they signed Hunter would post again, asking "Why?" Same for the people who lined up to see him at TwinsFest. His presence was sold as improving the team; dumping him for a marginal minor leaguer would confuse that message and frustrate a lot of commentators/fans. Imagine if the Wolves flipped Garnett for a D-leaguer.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I was responding to Brock's "I (mostly) like what Molitor is doing this spring" which seemed odd to me, since Molitor hasn't really done anything yet that is substantially different than what Gardy was doing or would have done. It's obviously early, but I think people are still wish-casting a bit with Molitor. (that we can notice at this point, anyway -- roster, lineup, positions, all that looks to be essentially the same at the present moment).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting, while Santana has exclusively played shortstop this spring, so has Escobar. Unfortunately, that means Nunez is getting all the "utility" action right now and has to be the current projected guy for that role on the opening day roster. Two key dates are coming up for him, however: March 18: Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days April 1: Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2014 salary Source: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/important-mlb-dates-112613 If Santana is the SS, I would love to see Nunez cleared out this spring. He just isn't an interesting option at any position. He should be viewed as <$200k injury insurance.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if Molitor has done a whole lot yet this spring. From his most recent comments, he's leaning toward putting forth our exact regular September 2014 defensive lineup and batting order, with Santana to short, Hunter to the outfield, and Escobar to the bench. The rest of the bench and pitching staff is shaping up pretty much the same too, with Ervin in for May and a Rule 5'er plus a vet in place of Burton/Swarzak in the pen. Not that these are bad moves, but outside of press conference approach, I am not yet seeing much on-field differences from what Gardy was doing late last year, or what I would have expected Gardy to do this spring.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Before Sunday, Gibson's "Opponent Quality" score at B-Ref was 8.2, just a hair above AAA level (8), and the lowest of our 5 starters so far this spring. And it probably didn't go up Sunday -- only two guys from the top of St Louis' depth charts were in that lineup, one of them their worst hitting returning regular of 2014 (Wong). And two more guys who were MLBers for all/most of 2014 but were weak hitting bench players (Bourjos and Cruz), arguably inflating Gibson's opponent quality score. So yeah, spring training caveats in full effect!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that. The Twins took a lot of public relations heat for losing Torii once, and gained a ton of good PR when they signed him back. I doubt they are planning to deal him off again a few months later for what would almost certainly be a modest return (probably a Jason Adam / Sean Gilmartin level player?).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Basically, yes. A player on the 40-man roster who gets injured cannot be optioned to the minors. I don't know how much they can enforce it in spring training, though (there isn't even an MLB disabled list until 9 days before opening day). I see minor league guys appear in spring training games all the time, even up to the very end, so is there anything preventing the Twins from optioning Sano on paper but getting him more MLB ST game action? If that's the case, then it is reasonably wise to option 40-man guys early if you know you are going to option them at some point anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably a better comparable would be Jim Edmonds 2010. But even if Hunter was willing, I don't think it would be worth it from the Twins perspective. Hunter has a much lower offensive ceiling than either Thome or Edmonds, and he also doesn't bat from the left side, meaning he is much less valuable in a PH or bat off the bench role. Also, unlike Edmonds, presumably Hunter isn't a good option to cover CF anymore. So you'd still need another backup outfielder too. And we should have plenty of guys by 2016 who can use the DH at-bats (Vargas hopefully, plus Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Pinto, etc.). All of them pretty much at Hunter's current offensive levels or better.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Saturday noon game is on FSN, for those wondering.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Still seems very strange to say Rosario had a "fantastic" AFL. He had .080 ISO (career low), 4.5 BB% (career low), 17.3 K% (career average), and a .385 BABIP (career high). And it was just 24 games against minor league competition. It was definitely encouraging after his career low AVG/OBP in AA for 2014, but it doesn't look remotely like evidence he is ready to jump to MLB right away.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean Pelfrey? Milone is not most folks' #1 preference, but I don't think people will be apoplectic over him getting the nod if he has a good spring. Especially if they make a decisive move with Pelfrey at the same time (cut or bullpen). Now, if Milone gets the job with a mediocre spring...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    That is weird. And it appears to be scheduled to happen 3 more times in spring training (plus another game broadcast on FSN but with no radio at all). http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/schedule/broadcast/index.jsp?c_id=min You might be able to stream it online: http://www.freebaseballradio.com/MinnesotaSep.html
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