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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Since the original poster used xFIP, here are Twins bullpen xFIP ranks by month, out of 15 AL teams: April: 9th May: 12th June: 15th July: 8th August: 14th September: 15th
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only did it completely lack slugging, it was 69 September plate appearances -- not sure we can use that to conclude that any part of Hicks's game is "already nearly on par with Dozier's". Dozier's been demonstrating that AVG/OBP/BB%/K% (plus slugging) for at least 1200 PA, two full seasons. And two fewer September singles for Hicks and that AVG is down to his .215 mark for the season; 2 more K's and his K% is up around the danger zone again. It was just a pitifully small sample to base any conclusions on, especially at that modest performance level. Even .200 hitters have occasional 69 PA stretches of .250.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It makes sense that, since they are projecting us as a last place team, we'd also project to have a hard schedule -- we don't get to play ourselves! Also, they have the worst MLB team projected to be the Phillies, and the NL seems more top-heavy in their projections too, so it would make sense that the last-place AL teams might have a tougher road.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- not sure if this is really true. Seth's projected 25 man roster has 8 players under age 28 (including Rule 5 pick JR Graham), same as our 2014 opening day roster. The 2001 opening day team had 13 such players. And it's not just Hunter and his one-year deal -- we also have 6 guys above our average team age signed for multiple future seasons. The rotation in particular isn't getting significantly younger anytime soon absent some major moves.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    2014 opening day roster, average age: 29.16 Seth's projected 2015 opening day roster, average age: 28.96 Progress! At this rate, it will only take us 15 years to get down to our 2001 opening day roster average age of 26.16.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you even read my post? "as a general rule, I might hesitate to extend a guy drafted as college senior and not on any kind of fast track" Meyer wasn't a college senior, and his MLB debut was held back by probably a full year-plus due to a shoulder injury in the minors. I guess you can add injury as an exceptional circumstance to my general rule above, although it doesn't apply to Dozier. Assuming Meyer doesn't break camp with the Twins this spring (or spends 20 days on optional assignment at some point over the next three years), we will have full control over him until his 32nd birthday! I am definitely not sure I would extend him beyond that, without accounting for a lot more factors than two seasons of WAR.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, that 2001 team didn't just "stay in it" until August. Second best record in MLB as late as July 22nd (96 win season pace at that point). And that was even after losing 7 of their previous 8 games. On July 12th (after the ASB), we still had a 103 win pace! Obviously we crashed hard from there, and pretty much eliminated ourselves with a 4 game sweep in Tampa followed by a 3 game sweep in Cleveland in mid-August, still finished with 85 wins, though (5th best record in the league! Too bad no second wild card). For the 2015 team, "staying in it" probably means an 85 win pace until August, and fading to .500 late.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually I don't know that the young guys faded in 2001. Guzman got hurt, but it seems our second-half swoon was mainly caused by the full season absence of a decent 5th starter (or even a reliable 4th starter after Mark Redman was hurt and then traded), with an assist from LaTroy Hawkins and maybe a couple other relievers. And we'll see how many "young guys" get a chance to start out hot and then fade in 2015. That young 2001 team was largely in place in 2000, particular the top 4 in the rotation (full season ERA+ figures of 116, 109, 106, and 93 in 2000, with Radke being the elder statesman at age 27). Matt Lawton was easily our oldest regular on opening day 2001, and he had just turned 29, not much older than Plouffe is now. Definitely no corresponding Hunter, Suzuki, Mauer, Nolasco, E. Santana, or Pelfrey.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It does seem a little odd, but remember Dozier wasn't even arbitration eligible yet. He had zero reason to have any prior contract discussions with the Twins, so they may have only started at the ground floor in negotiations when this report came out. (As opposed to a player who has already exchanged arbitration figures with the club, etc.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the majority of players drafted out of college are seniors like Dozier, and definitely not top draftees. The first college senior drafted in 2014 was #45 overall. Only two were drafted in the top 110 picks, only 4 in the top 144 (four-plus rounds). Twins didn't draft their first senior until the 8th round, and only 10 of their 40 total picks were seniors (versus 18 college underclassmen). So yes, as a general rule, I might hesitate to extend a guy drafted as college senior and not on any kind of fast track (MLB debut a week shy of 25th birthday), barring exceptional performance.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Astros and White Sox both have 16 guys remaining, just one behind the Twins. So while I would have liked to see a few more guys jettisoned (Duensing, Nunez although he doesn't count here, etc.), it doesn't appear that we are way off the mark. Still better than the Rockies, who were worse than us in 2014 and still have 19 of the same players!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The bullpen was a mildly frustrating part of this offseason. While I know good relievers can sneak up on you (like Guerrier, various failed starters, etc.), we've pretty much locked in most of our pen with known mediocrities. Feels like we're going to have to wait for the recent draftees or for some starting prospects to get a chance to fail before we might have another plus bullpen, like we had in Gardy's glory days.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that really true? I think starting and relieving in the modern game is different enough that you can't really make that claim based on starting stats/effectiveness. If Slowey was a better starter than Wade Davis, is his ceiling as a late inning reliever higher? Reliever ceiling has to be pitcher-specific, based on a variety of factors. Pelfrey might have the right profile, although given he is now 31 years old, has been pretty worthless as a starter for 4 seasons now, and he still hasn't been tried in relief (and won't be immediately this spring, according to Molitor), suggests that maybe he doesn't have a good relief profile.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt those guys are candidates for improvement -- several couldn't get much worse! But the original poster was claiming "addition by subtraction" of AAAA arms when that's not really the case. We really only had 26 starts by "AAAA arms" last year (lumping Swarzak and Deduno in that group too). The rest of the staff, all returning except Correia, tallied 136 starts and a 4.97 ERA -- which by itself would have been worst team SP ERA in the league by a large margin last year. Those "AAAA guys" shifted our team SP ERA from 4.97 to 5.06, or in other words, barely at all. And while not all of these returning guys will get a lot of starts, Nolasco is pretty much a lock and the others seem to be next in line on the depth chart, so at this point they project to get more starts than actual new faces like Meyer.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This should easily be an annual event, and possible multiple per year too -- oftentimes, they could probably schedule an exhibition in Minnesota just before the season starts (either at Target Field or the new Vikings stadium, probably). Both sides might field B-squad teams but it would be fun.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if "multiple occasions" is really true here. They did it with Jason Marquis ($3 mil salary) at the end of May 2012 -- that's about the earliest and most expensive Twins release ever, that I can recall. Kubel in mid-June last year for $2 mil is probably the second most expensive. After that? Sidney Ponson made $1 mil and was released mid-May 2007. Nick Blackburn survived his full contract (although he was out righted to AAA for the final season, as he had less than 5 years service). Even Nishioka was kept around long enough that he simply waived his salary and buyout in exchange for his release. More commonly, they've traded guys (or surrendered them on waivers) a month or two before their deals expired: Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Correia, Willingham, etc. Cutting Pelfrey this spring would easily be the most aggressive/expensive veteran release the Twins have ever done. EDIT: Mike Lamb was actually the earliest, September 2008 when his contract lasted through 2009. Wound up eating roughly $3 mil in salary? More examples: Juan Rincon mid-to-late June 2008 ($2.5 mil). Craig Monroe, August 2008 ($3.8 mil). (Boy, those 2008 Twins made some bad investments!) Luis Ayala, July 2009 ($1.3 mil). I also remember Bob Kipper and his $1 mil salary getting released at the trade deadline 1992 and thinking it was a big deal too!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Since he has over 5 years MLB service time, Pelfrey can reject any minor league assignment. I don't know if that rejection technically makes him a free agent, or the rejection means we have to simply release him, but either way the result is the same: he would have the freedom to sign elsewhere, and we would owe him his full contract (less the league minimum if another team picked him up). There might be waivers involved somewhere as a formality, but they don't really matter for a veteran of 5+ years service. (If he had less service time than that, and cleared waivers, he could be outrighted once off the 40-man for the season without his consent, like Parmelee last spring.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the quote matches your interpretation at all. That he focused this winter on defense does not mean he did not work on defense before. He simply may have reached a point in his career where he wanted to (or was instructed to) shift priorities, quite probably because of data and experiences that were new to him and his bosses in 2014. Happens in every job and role in life.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Gleeman's point was that hit bat could play in either spot (top or middle of the order) -- which gives him more potential avenues to success than the usual prospect! If you figure he adds some power and lose some speed over the next few years, he could fit more of that middle profile, like a Puckett.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I seem to recall Meyer going on the record as endorsing relief work, if it gets him into MLB -- or am I misremembering? Seems logical, anyway. And Pelfrey might be open to it too, if the alternative is to get cut from one of the worst staffs in the league.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't this kind of transition exactly what spring training can safely be used for? What would be worse is to keep them in the starter's role all spring, THEN try to suddenly change their role when the season starts. (Or as JB alludes to, award the spots based on contract status / options rather than performance.) Liriano hadn't pitched out of the pen his entire pro career (well, 1 appearance in rookie league) before the Twins took him north in 2006. But maybe he wasn't "a routine guy" or a "a guy that takes some time to get ready". Hopefully Molitor's "for now" qualifier means at the present moment and the first week or two of camp. But after that, we don't need five 5th starter candidates hanging around in late March.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree there were some bad trends, but to be fair, Pinto's numbers took a nosedive across the board (including K rate) pretty much when they started giving him more days off. Not sure which is the chicken and which is the egg, but it probably would have been fair to at least give him a stretch of consecutive starts to see. After May 3rd, he didn't start 3 games in a row again for a month, after which he was promptly sent down. And as bad as that May line was for Pinto, he was 2 singles from Mauer's May OPS, in half the PA. And 3 singles shy of Suzuki's August/September OPS in about 1/3 of the PA. Guys have slumps, perhaps especially guys whose roles change suddenly?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, there were a few more worrisome parts of his batting line: - The strikeouts were high. He's got a 16% K rate in AA/AAA, and a 26% in MLB so far. - The walks were disappearing. April, 20.5% BB rate. May/June, 4%. (AA/AAA mark: 13%) - The power was disappearing. April .246, May/June .129. (AA/AAA mark: .175) Maybe it was just an extended slump, and I was inclined to keep him in MLB and give him more everyday at-bats, but those were bad trends. Kind of like in July 2013 when Arcia and Parmelee started striking out 3 times every game, something wasn't quite right and maybe the AAA option isn't so bad.
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