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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    When Pinto was sent down in May 2014, he had a .730 OPS for the season. Suzuki finished the season at .727, and it was almost certainly the best offensive season of his entire career to date.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The difference in SLG is about 120 points, which is huge, and a straight minus-120 points of OPS too. That's about the difference between Dozier and Eduardo Nunez last year. In terms of OPS+, it's 115 vs 80.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the $15 mil salaries in the last few seasons also come with a discount on the earlier seasons. Still a risk as it is all guaranteed, but it's not quite a $15 mil per season risk.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The cost certainty was awesome with Span -- he made $5 mil then $6 mil in two seasons with Washington, plus a $9 mil team option this year. I think it will be less awesome at Kipnis/Carpenter rates -- both scheduled to make $13-$14 mil in each of their last two years, plus options at $16-$18 mil. But getting Dozier's age 32-33 seasons, without having to guarantee anything beyond that, might be worth it.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for doing the math, that is a key component here. Considering he's set to make basically the minimum this year absent a new deal, I guess the choices could be: 4 years, ~$30 mil, covering ages 28-31, with team opt-outs (or adjustments for health/performance) every year 6 years, $52 mil, covering ages 28-33, fully guaranteed Sounds good, although Dozier is a bit of an odd duck -- I feel like given his age and complete performance history so far, his 2013-2014 might represent his peak. And it's a lower peak (offensively) than Kipnis, much lower than Carpenter. So locking him in at these rates doesn't give you a whole lot of room for excess value, which is a big part of these arb buyout contracts.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's using a free agent $/WAR calculation. Dozier is not a free agent for four more seasons.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    From MLBTR: That would be a little high for Dozier. Both of those guys were coming off better offensive seasons (146 and 129 wRC+, as compared to Dozier's 118), and generally better WAR seasons too (although Fangraphs doesn't seem to like Kipnis's 2013 as much a B-Ref). Not that other aspects of Dozier's game don't have value, but he hasn't demonstrated an offensive ceiling quite as high as those two comparables.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I like him, but for the record, Pinto hasn't hit HR at the low end of that rate (20 in 400 PA) since rookie league. He might get better, but he's been pretty consistent in the power department in his 5 full pro seasons. 15 seems more likely for him, at this point.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll wait to see the terms. The Span deal ended up pretty sweet, even though he never consistently replicated the production (mainly hitting) of his first two seasons and even sustained a concussion along the way. Locking up him at reasonable prices through age 30, with an age 31 option, helped us deal him for a top pitching prospect. Even if you are not sold on Dozier's bat yet (or what shape his offensive production will ultimately take), he's got similar baserunning, defensive, and positional value as Span, so it would be hard for him not to be worth just about any reasonable extension through age 31 (plus perhaps an age 32 option?). Span had one less year of service time than Dozier now, so I don't expect quite the same discount, although neither was arbitration eligible yet which seems the most important point (both had big incentive to lock in to something).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Enjoy the game! And don't worry about the naysayers here -- I've never had a bad experience taking my daughter to a game, from age 2 months to 2.5 years (so far). I might caution against sitting under the upper deck overhang -- you will get shade but you will also be directly under some very loud speakers. When I've had those seats, I've actually moved down to the bottom of the upper deck ("Field Terrace"?) where it was much quieter. If you are in the sun, just have the kid wear one of those big floppy hats. Dugout Box was the best though, again in the sun but no loud speakers and a great close-up view of the players. If you are waiting to buy your tickets, or you are looking to upgrade closer to the date, try to score a couple of those on Ticket King, StubHub, or through SeatGeek. Sounds like it is a rare occasion for you to attend a game -- treat yourself!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Think you might want to look at that slugging percentage again...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Or, opening day CF in way over their heads. Last TWO years all over again. The infielder that played CF regularly last year turned out pretty good, and at the very least doesn't look like he is struggling with confidence or adapting his game to MLB. I can live with that for the first two months while Hicks and/or Rosario get their games together in AAA. I'll defer some to the judgement of the new coaching staff if they really think Hicks is ready this time (or longer shot, that Rosario would be ready), but I would not be surprised or disappointed if they thought both needed more AAA time.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, if you simply knock those 3 HR down to 3 2B, Hicks loses 145 points of SLG/OPS for that spring! He did OK by B-Ref's "Opposition Quality" measure but that isn't super-precise either...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks made the team to open last year. I don't want a repeat of that. Plus we still have Danny Santana, with two Eduardo's slated for utility duty. I wouldn't rule him out.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Funny you should suggest that. The Marlins actually had to send an international bonus pool slot to the Dodgers WITH Nolasco back in 2013. (During Nolasco's 2nd best season to date, and with only a few months left on his deal.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Who did they have to convince? Do the players care much about international amateur bonuses?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    A fair point. Arcia's power is already pretty darn good -- his ISO would have ranked 14th in MLB among qualifiers last season. I don't know if he needs walks -- Carlos Gomez doesn't -- but he could use a better average, and probably fewer K's to help him achieve that. (As long as it doesn't sap his power...) His K% would have ranked 4th among qualifiers last year, in the company of Dunn, the bad Upton, the bad Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc. Not a lot of great hitters in that area. Meanwhile, around his present day walk rates, you've got Gomez among others.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Punto knew how to rub some dirt on it, which seems to fall under the "gritty" category, no? From what I remember of Guardado's physique, his tail definitely was never battled off, that's for sure.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That MiLB ISO is propped up a bit by 2B and 3B, which I imagine are easier to collect against minor league defenders (and perhaps with an 18-22 year old's speed). I don't know that it would translate 1:1 to the majors. Also, the "gets his average up to .250" line of reasoning started last offseason when he looked like a bit of a BABIP victim his rookie year. Last year he had a normal BABIP in MLB, and his average climbed all the way to... .215. And his ISO dropped to .059. And the MiLB isolated discipline may not translate 1:1 to the majors either, at least not after he's modified his approach to hit higher than .201. I think .250/.350/.380 is probably his realistic upside at this point in time. And like you said, it will take work to get there.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly Hicks has time to turn it around, but this is one of those times where I find batting average to be a useful indicator if a player can at least handle MLB pitching. At the career points you chose, Gomez was at a .246 BA, Hicks is at .201. Also, despite being a hacker, Gomez was at 21.9 K%, versus 26 for Hicks. Hicks doesn't have much room to take more K's if he tries to be more aggressive/powerful at the plate. Also, interestingly, Gomez's isolated power increased every year of his MLB career until this past season when it finally leveled off, although they were pretty minor increases up until his 25th birthday when it really exploded. Hicks obviously took a huge step backward in that department last year. So this a big year for Hicks, after turning 25 in the offseason. Given his winter league stats too, I'm inclined to say that Hicks probably shouldn't sniff the MLB roster to open the season unless there are at least two CF injuries in camp. He needs a chance to really thump in AAA. Eddie Rosario probably shouldn't break camp unless there are about 4 injuries and no room on the 40-man roster to add someone else.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think part of the issue is that Gleeman writes for an audience that already knows these guys. Presumably Rosario had a much more positive write-up last year, for example. Also Gleeman seems to like to "balance" the conventional wisdom and team sources and traditional media. I have that tendency here too, where I sometimes only post to correct or disagree. Alternate reading both his posts and Seth's posts here and imagine them as the devil and angel on your shoulders. (That's not what I do, but I think it would be a humorous visual.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought his arm was fried. I hope he can lettuce win more games. His mound celebrations seem like he is hot-dogging it. But he might go well with the shake up in the clubhouse. EDIT: Also goes well with a Coke, to Chief.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he might too, proportionally akin to Molitor's age 39 bounceback perhaps (and maybe more defensive than offensive).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    All 2014 Twins OF (includes Hicks, Kubel, Cola, everyone): 0.8 fWAR per 586 PA 2014 Torii: 0.3 fWAR in 586 PA And I didn't bring up WAR here, Chief did
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    By the age of Milone's MLB debut (24), Buehrle had 511 IP at 131 ERA+, plus an all star appearance. Milone currently sits at 490 and 97 at age 28. (Buehrle at that age? 1400 IP, 121 ERA+)
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