Otto von Ballpark

Very confused when I saw "Gordon" leading off the game. Then I remembered it was the older one!

For those wondering, yes this is on FS North today!

Also, as far as struggles, Sano posted a wRC+ of 145 in his time in AA. Rosario about 93 (and only 104 in his "good" year at that level in 2013). If Rosario can be deemed "ready" for AAA based on that, plus 24 AFL games and 2015 spring training, I see no reason why Sano can't likewise be deemed "ready" based on his previous performance level and 2015 spring training. Not that I would be upset about Sano to AA, but barring injury, it should be brief (like Morneau in 2003, who was promoted to AAA on April 30). He's not that far behind Rosario, if at all.

I think point #2, while true in some respects, is often over-stated. Most prospects still spend plenty of time in AAA. Even Twins prospects. It can be used however an organization wants. All of our top pitching prospects seem ticketed to spend significant time at that level -- so why wouldn't it be a good place for top hitters? Don't you want them facing other team's equivalents May, Meyer, Berrios, etc. on the cusp of the majors themselves? I think the Twins recent "AA to MLB jump" for some position player prospects is more a function of need than strategy. Actually, only Vargas and Hicks so far have tried the jump completely -- Santana and Dozier at least had brief stops at AAA along the way. But all of them were called upon to fill a gaping MLB hole, just like Mauer in 2004, and a ton of pitchers in 2001, etc.

I think by 2006 and probably earlier, you can't simply add Prior to the Twins real-life playoff results and conclude he wouldn't have helped. The composition of the team would have likely been quite different, for better or worse. Rick Reed and Mark Redman (plus Matt Lawton) could have been affected within two months, not to mention the Joe Mays contract extension, Kenny Rogers in 2003, the Eric Milton trade which netted us Silva and Punto, and certainly the AJ trade which netted us Liriano and Nathan (and Boof). And those are just the players and moves directly affected by Prior -- more certainly would have been affected indirectly. For example, maybe without Nathan, we hang on to Guardado or Hawkins a few more years? If you can look ahead a little further, maybe without Liriano, we aren't so eager to trade Matt Garza (or even Johan Santana) after 2007? Really, 2002-2004 are probably the only years where we can safely make guesses. And in 2002, swapping Mays or Reed for Prior likely wins us the ALDS in one fewer game, and if it was Reed who was out, perhaps extends the ALCS back to the Metrodome for Game 6... In 2003, Prior takes the Game 1 assignment from Santana and pushes Lohse out of the playoff rotation, and perhaps delays Santana's injury that October? Or at least allows him more time to recover. Similarly, with Prior in 2004, pushing Silva out of the playoff rotation and letting Santana work on full rest could change things quite a bit too. While SP wasn't always our top weakness those years/series, we certainly could have benefitted with another top level starter! (Who wouldn't?) I wouldn't, however, posit that Prior would have stayed significantly more healthy with the Twins. The frequency and severity of his injuries almost certainly would not have been avoided with a few lower pitch count games. Not a knock on Mauer at all, but it certainly would have been interesting to see Prior on the 2001-2004 teams. Perhaps even more interesting would have been the 2001 signal that the Twins were willing to spend some money to be the best. Maybe they go over-slot for future draft picks, or pony up for FA Jim Thome or international amateurs, etc. Maybe they even avoid the contraction mess, hire Molitor to manage instead of Gardy, get their new stadium a couple years earlier, etc. Lots of implications! Of course, in this bizarro universe, there is almost certainly a 2015 article asking "What if the Twins drafted Mauer instead of Prior?" Which likely concludes that the 2005-2014 teams would have been better off had they done so.

I think Stroman was injured while fielding bunts, though. Yup: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/112056508/blue-jays-pitcher-marcus-stroman-tears-acl-in-knee-out-for-season

On the other hand, we don't get to fleece the Giants in the AJ trade. Could change the timing/parameters of the Milton deal too.

The Twins promoted Adam Johnson on a similar timeline as the Cubs did Prior. Also note that the author suggest with Prior we don't sign Kenny Rogers. That alone suggests Santana's rotation move would not have been affected much by the addition of Prior. (And I made a similar suggestion about Rick Reed.)

Prior draft in 2001 also suggests that maybe we don't trade for Rick Reed shortly thereafter.

You need an era adjustment, my friend. Viola was notably above league K/9 in 1987, versus Slowey who was generally average or below (slightly above average in his abbreviated 2009). Plus peak Kevin Slowey might have been useful in the playoffs had he ever been healthy for them. Probably more effective than, say, low-K Carlos Silva.

I suspect Prior's reason for dismissing the Twins was that the Twins were not going to offer an amateur a contract close to what he got from the Cubs. The article assumes the Twins ponied up the necessary dough.

Hopefully leg injury is less disruptive long term than arm injury.

Credit to everyone for not suggesting trading them Nolasco or Pelfrey!

So even soccer trumps the T-Wolves now?

You make team leadership sound like dishwashing in my house. An important role that I currently fill, but would probably be filled in some fashion by another if I no longer lived here.

"Positive" WAR totals of 0.3 and 0.5, in 450-500 PA seasons, do not make a player definitively above replacement. His point is very much correct by fWAR.

That's what I was going to say too. The Rangers have still gotten excellent return on Darvish, even if he misses a season to injury and comes back not quite 100% of what he was before. 3 (okay, two and two-thirds) seasons of ace-level pitching, with 2016-2017 still to come, is very valuable. Even with a crystal ball that foretells this injury, no way are the Rangers better off not signing Darvish in the first place. And I'd argue that big money FA pitchers have actually performed pretty well, overall. They don't deliver ace-level production every year, but almost nobody does. The biggest duds are guys that were clearly suspect "aces" to begin with (Zito and Hampton). Brown was solid overall, Cliff Lee too, even Santana and Sabathia were great for the first half of their deals, etc. Obviously it is better to develop your own ace, but that's like saying it's better to build your own house for free rather than pay someone else to do it -- it's not always a realistic option. It is still quite possible to pay someone to be an ace and get fair value.

The 2006 Twins retained only 5 Twins who appeared in 2002, so I am not sure that turnover in and of itself is the best measure. The 2001 Twins only retained 5 players from 1997 too, but they also cut their average age (opening day roster) from 30 to 26.16. The 2015 projected opening day roster is actually a hair older (28.96) than the 2011 one (28.88). (And Thome more than cancels out the Hunter effect.) So, are they turning over with players likely to improve? With upside? I'd argue that they haven't, not nearly enough, particularly on the pitching staff.

What are MLB insurance policies like these days? Didn't the Twins recover much of Nathan's salary in his lost season? Plus, with Darvish's talent and age, I think he will recover pretty well. 2015 may be lost, but I bet he provides good value in performance or trade in 2016-2017.

Doubt Texas expects to contend, especially after losing Darvish. Not that Nolasco or Pelfrey would necessarily help them contend...

Could be the Twins looking for a Span type discount, and Dozier/agent angling for a Carpenter/Kipnis deal.

Not last year's 2B comparables, Kipnis and Carpenter. 6 guaranteed years, plus options on top of that.

If the Twins had the Giants record the past 5 years, I would have no concern about having a similar average age. Just like I had no qualms with the 1988 Twins or 1992 Twins retaining veterans from previous years.

That is also what I used in my calculations. Seems to be the standard. I however was just using opening day rosters, and not weighing for playing time, so I doubt it should be compared to B-Ref's average age figures...

Last year had Willingham, only 4 years younger than Hunter. That 2001 team had 40 year old backup catcher Tom Prince and still clocked in with an average age of just 26. The long term deals in the rotation are going to keep this average age up.