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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it highlighted how bad the pitcher batting is. For every interesting bunt / double switch situation, there were a couple interesting rallies killed by the near-automatic out. And that's in the most important games of the year. How interesting is it when a SP comes to the plate in the third inning in from April through September? I generally consider myself a traditionalist, opposing interleague play, modern offense, and once upon a time the DH too -- but I've come to the conclusion that pitchers batting just sucks. It would be great if pitchers generally didn't have to bat, but once in a great while, a team with a good-hitting pitcher had a strategy reward for using them -- maybe they are allowed to bat the DH in place of a different fielder if they want, or the team could be allowed to retain its DH if it moved him to the mound or something...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Any insight as to why the Orioles pick up so many ex-Twins? Could be a good question for another TR interview. Part of me wonders if they still have strong ties in Rochester, as the Red Wings were their affiliate for 41 years before switching to the Twins. (Doesn't quite explain MLBers like Hardy and Delmon, although most of their former Twin pick-ups are of the AAA variety.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    League offense was lower in Hisle's day -- his OPS+ is virtually equal to Mack's (127 vs 130). Hisle graded out overall as a league-average defender in his Twins time, and he was pressed into more CF duty than Mack too. Mack is better, but it's very close by WAR (less than half a win difference per season). But I'm a "big hall" kind of guy, as far as team hall of fames go. I'd support Tovar, Mack, and possibly Hisle too in an effort to represent all eras -- it would make for a fun day and spark a little Twins history discussion. I'd probably draw the line before Guardado and Versailles, though (and definitely before Gladden) -- 5 strong seasons (perhaps more for relievers) with the club seems like a good minimum. Otherwise you may as well induct Jack Morris too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, this isn't an isolated trend. I think we're at 50 years of Twins Cuban inactivity, and the last 10 years MLB as a whole has been pretty active in this regard. The Twins themselves have admitted their Latin American budget/operations weren't up to snuff prior to about 2007-2008 or so. I don't think it's a stretch at all to say it is likely still limited when it comes to the one "closed" country in that region.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a particular player, it's basically any Cuban. When was the last time the Twins signed a Cuban player? Or even had a reported offer to one? Was Oliva himself the last? (No, Kendrys Morales doesn't count. ) Unless Tony Oliva's advice has been not to aggressively pursue ANY Cuban player, ever (in which case it has probably been bad advice many times), I have a hard time seeing any effect here. One might as well say that Dan Gladden has helped us make inroads into Japan (heck, at least we signed Nishioka and were a verified bidder for Iwakuma).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I kind of agree with you, but it wasn't just the bad pitchers who suffered. Hughes had an incredible season but got stuck with an ERA almost a full run higher than his FIP. Gibson kept the ball in the park and got a lot of grounders with a good infield behind him... but had an ERA 0.70 higher than his FIP. Nolasco continued his trend of FIP under-performance... which he established in front of a perennially weak Marlins defense: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/ricky-nolasco-back-to-the-future-r3306 Despite having notably better starters than 2013, our starter ERA-FIP difference was actually larger in 2014. I don't think an aggressive outfield defensive upgrade would have vaulted our 2014 staff to league average like some posters here, but I think it was a factor worth addressing a lot more than we did.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the Twins still have the same front office that put those "outfielders" on the roster in the first place (and some of the same coaches that deployed them in that manner). The four main guys you mention combined for about a full season in the OF, with a Rdrs/yr rate of -26.7. We signed Hunter who had a rate of -19.4. That's an improvement, but less than a full win. Elsewhere, Danny Santana was actually league average in his time in CF, according to B-Ref. But it's been hinted that he's moving back to SS. The only CF options on the roster are Hicks (-8 Rdrs/yr last year) and Shafer (-14 Rdrs/yr for his CF career). Could easily see worse results out of CF this season. Bartlett and Escobar saw a combined 25 innings in the OF last year -- they were non-factors. And Eduardo Nunez is still on the roster and might be shoe-horned into a primary backup OF role, especially if Santana goes to SS and Escobar to utility infield. Improved over last year? Possibly, but quite likely less than 1 win. Seems like a big missed opportunity for such a glaring weakness.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder, is that a good haul for four seasons at the helm? I don't know, but it feels like it might be weak (especially considering that 2-4 of your "highlight" names could easily wind up marginal MLBers). I mean, a blind squirrel at the helm of a MLB organization will probably find a few useful guys over a 4 year period. Not sure if Smith exceeded that. Although at times TR probably didn't exceed it either (i.e. the couple drafts before he left, a few of his 1990s drafts too, particularly as he wasn't terribly active in the top international markets).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Blackmon hasn't been traded yet. Saunders was on the market for awhile and was never even rumored for the Twins, I don't think. (And was ultimately dealt fairly cheaply -- I have to think if we had wanted him, we could have made something work.) Fowler is interesting, although most observers think he would be better suited for a corner.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I like Battey too. But Tovar had the same number of seasons in Minnesota and basically never missed a game, which is pretty valuable too. The two had similarly valuable bats and gloves, and Tovar added base running value on top of it (Tovar beats Battey in WAR). Tovar even got comparable MVP consideration at the time too. What Tovar is missing is 1965 World Series credit (Tovar was not on the roster, although Battey did not hit well), and all-star appearances and gold gloves, primarily a function of him not having a regular position. Put Tovar at 2B for his whole career and he probably does better in this regard.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/281074/120860662/stock-photo-cuba-cuban-flag-on-a-bow-tie-120860662.jpg
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Totally agree that Shane Mack is/was underrated, but the problem with him in this context is career length. 5 years, even very good years, doesn't quite cut it. Larry Hisle had five very good years for the Twins. Roy Smalley probably had a similar Twins peak. Koskie would safely be in this group too. Wynegar and Castino might be on this bubble. Tapani? Erickson? Tovar has a few more seasons than most of these guys but still might be considered a bit on the short career side. Of course, the bar for the Twins hall of fame looks fairly low. Career length and value wise, Earl Battey is probably no better than Tovar. Gagne and Gaetti too. Zoilo Versalles got there on one season, basically. Guardado certainly didn't raise the bar. Given that, and since the numbers aren't retired or anything, I'd rather go ahead and put these shorter career guys in, rather than having a multi-season drought with no players inducted (or start treading into even more borderline players like Jacque Jones). Dan Gladden would still probably be a very poor choice. His case (5 playing seasons, 2 titles, post-retirement career around the club) isn't all that different than Al Newman.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins would be a better team if they had ordered a cubano in recent years.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually if Meyer spends less than 20 days in AAA, it would count as a full season of MLB service time, regardless of whether he gets 172 days. But yeah, it shouldn't really matter at this point.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The linked article here says he is "lacking a prototypical build" for a starter.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you've got Berrios and Meyer flipped. Meyer was ranked 28-45 by the major lists last winter, and if this list is any indication, should be right around 25 again. Berrios was the guy low on lists last winter (75-90, unranked by BA) so even a consensus 60 rank would be moving up for him. He is definitely a rising star, and he was very effective but didn't dominate in his AA debut (6.2 K/9). I think that's keeping him behind Meyer and out of this top 10 right now. One guy in this top 10 I had never heard of before -- Luis Severino, Yankees. 3 months older than Berrios, similar physical size, but lit up AA with a 10.4 K/9 in his first taste.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Does a 6 man rotation guarantee a 13 man staff, though?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's kind of disappointing to read. Worried more about his individual stats? He's been an awful starter and a pretty shaky setup guy. Not sure if lobbying more for those roles would have helped him. The guy got a $575k draft bonus, over 4 years of MLB service time (very important for future benefits/pension consideration), and ~$2.3 mil MLB salary from the Twins, despite some uneven performances. There's no shame in his pro career to date, but likewise there is nothing wrong with the Twins letting him go either.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I am kind of surprised to hear this. Haven't been to the Target Field version, but my primary enjoyment of the Dome version was letting kids run around on the turf and in the seats. Heck, they even had a little mini-field set up in the infield for kids to play a game on.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Gibson's competition was much weaker by March 2014 than May's will be this spring. Pelfrey and Milone if both healthy, Stauffer, the wildcard of Alex Meyer -- that's a lot tougher to beat than the March 2013 versions of Worley and Diamond (both demoted to AAA the previous summer) and Deduno (recent arm surgery, minor league deal previous year, had been removed from the 40-man just over a year prior). I think we all were WAY too pessimistic about Gibson's chances.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be inclined to believe that an Asian player preferred to play on the west coast. The fact that the team is the defending world champs makes it even better. And the wait may not have been of Aoki's doing -- maybe he was waiting on the Giants, who in turn may have been waiting on other free agents or trade possibilities. Maybe he tried to get a deal with Seattle. Who knows. According to MLBTR, early reports had Aoki seeking a 3 year deal, perhaps he was holding out awhile for that.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, I'd prefer Aoki to Hunter. But I think I'd prefer Rasmus to both, given the added flexibility of CF. Aoki's contract might be a better "value" but I would want the better / more versatile player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure that Aoki can passably play center field. (And some evidence suggests he didn't do so well in RF last year either). Not to mention his alarming drop in power the last two years -- he's basically been at Nick Punto career ISO levels. It's not a bad contract, but I'm not sure he's that great of a player. Rasmus seems to bring a lot more to the table.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm generally with you -- May should be the leader to win the job at this point. But I don't think it would be "silly" if he wound up back in AAA. He's older and had a lot of AA innings, but they weren't exactly quality innings. His quality upper minors resume is, as you note, 98 innings long, with some stark and perhaps unsustainable differences from his previous record (just eyeballing, but his BABIP, HR/9, LOB% in that sample were his best in recent memory). He still has a lot to prove, and while I think that proving could be done in MLB right away, he could probably prove a few things with a little more AAA time too if necessary (namely, that those most recent 98 IP are more indicative of his talent going forward than the 300 so-so IP that immediately preceded it). That said, I wouldn't hand Pelfrey the job over him just because of his contract or whatever, but if someone legitimately performs much better than May this spring, I wouldn't be upset if May began the year in AAA.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    If it's anything close to $4 mil, that's cheap. MLBTR predicted Rasmus at 1/12 or 3/30. I am guessing the Twins never seriously inquired.
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