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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR hears Rasmus will get "over $4 million": http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/astros-talking-with-colby-rasmus.html If it's anything close to $4 mil, that's cheap. MLBTR predicted him at 1/12 or 3/30.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I also think that's a fairly weak offer. Plouffe requires moving arguably their best position player (Rendon) off of his natural and probably best position. If they already had Plouffe in the system, maybe they'd do that, but why would they seek that out as a solution? I am pretty sure they could trade an ace SP for an actual second baseman if they wanted to go that route. Rosario a useful piece to have, but his stock is low right now. He's actually not all that good of a bet to contribute in MLB in the near future. And Duffey is a low-upside throw-in. Burdi is interesting, but even he's not that close to contributing in MLB, at least not as far as a present-day contender is concerned. If the Nationals want immediate MLB bullpen help, and they are willing to part with an ace SP, they could probably do a lot better.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Whatever your criteria, I think it's wrong. I can't recall a single instance of an ace pitcher being traded for current relievers (much less mostly minor league relievers), which is what you proposed. Could it happen without Sano or Buxton, due to the specific needs of Washington? Perhaps. But the significant need would have to go way beyond "general bullpen help" if you are talking about receiving a top 10 MLB SP (Steamer projection) in return. Throw in a starting second baseman in Dozier and then maybe you have a conversation starter.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, Nelson Liriano was still around that spring. Chip Hale was there too, and would probably have been a similar MLB hitter to Knoblauch at the time. Leius was still considered a potential shortstop, and Reboulet was already hanging around. But yeah, we did show a worrisome willingness to start Newman, although mostly in our down years of 1989-1990.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    A few things: 1) One isolated past trade doesn't mean much. Would you have suggested a team could have plucked JJ Hardy from the Orioles in 2012 for another Jim Hoey type? 2) I think part of Detroit's motivation was they didn't believe in Fister's track record continuing, but that track record is now longer and stronger (at least if you like ERA more than FIP) 3) Robbie Ray might have more value than we realize. The Tigers just flipped him for a likely MLB SP, and the Yankees picked up a potential starting SS in that same 3-way trade.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really embarrassing bullpen collapses. Storen's just had two blown playoff saves, that's about the extent of it. And the Twins don't have any certified playoff relievers to offer. Why would the Nationals trust Perkins more than Storen? Much less need Reed/Cederoth -- just eyeballing the Nationals prospect list, they already have a few similar power arms in their system, they're not that desperate. And even if that's what the Nationals were targeting, they certainly wouldn't have to give up a stud starting pitcher to get it. Steamer's projected WAR for Strasburg may not seem like much, but it is 8th best in all MLB, virtually equal to that of Scherzer who was the consensus best FA on the market. And the projected WAR is heavily regressed -- the 8th best SP fWAR in MLB last year was almost 50% higher than the 8th best projected WAR for 2015. Strasburg is one of the few MLB SP with a realistic shot at a 7 WAR season. That has immense value, more than most bullpens in fact. (Best team bullpen fWAR last year? Royals at 5.9) And Steamer only projects Perkins at 0.8 WAR. Furthermore, you're not accounting for any benefit Roark could provide out of the pen himself (or replacing one of the three "lesser" Washington starters).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed it takes time to adjust, but first impressions matter too. After his first cup of coffee, Morneau was still an average and sometimes even above average MLB hitter over those first 1000 PA until his breakout in 2006. Same with Cuddyer. Even Hunter was basically classic Hunter in his first full MLB season, minus some power. This bodes well for Arcia on the current club! I feel that development cases like Gomez or Dozier aren't quite as common as many claim. Which does not bode well for Hicks.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Something certainly clicked for Hunter at age 24 -- basically went from a 10 HR/year player to a 25-30 HR/year player. Cuddyer's stat line doesn't suggest any immediate dividends from his return trips to AAA. He was the same basic hitter throughout his minor league career, and was similarly consistent in his MLB performances until his version of Hunter's power surge just after his 27th birthday.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I always thought that Lauder's 1988 All Star appearance must have been entirely patronage by Tom Kelly, but indeed Laudner was one of the better catchers in the league over the first half of 1988. Of course, he was hitting way over his career marks, his playing career effectively over a little more than a year later, and he was also helped by Carlton Fisk being injured and Ernie Whitt, Matt Nokes, and others having poor first halves. The All-Star starter (and eventual MVP, Steinbach) was actually a worse All-Star pick at the time. Eventual Gold Glove winner Bob Boone had a case, as did Don Slaught and Geno Petralli, but Laudner was an acceptable choice.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Why wasn't this the case last winter? He signed with Baltimore then. He may be a bit cheaper now but last year his salary wasn't guaranteed either.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd much rather give Johan that chance than, say, giving Tim Stauffer a chance at starting again, or auditioning Blaine Boyer for the pen. Heck, Santana is only 2-3 years older than those guys anyway...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    MacPhail pretty much inherited the 1987 club. Gladden, Berenguer, and Reardon were the only notably above replacement level guys MacPhail brought in. 1991 was a different story, of course -- he assembled most of that roster. By the time he left in 1994 we were in a pretty bad position.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Do the Giants have a hole in their rotation? 1. M. Bumgarner 2. M. Cain 3. T. Hudson 4. J. Peavy 5. T. Lincecum 6. Y. Petit They also have a couple decent SP prospects slotting in at AAA. They might want some depth, but I am not sure they'd want a career 91 ERA+ 32 year old who's never really pitched out of the bullpen, is owed a fair bit of money over the next 3 years, and is coming off the worst season of his career. Milone would obviously be more interesting, although his stock is also low. At this point, given his performance in MN and late season health concerns, I think you might be lucky to get back something equivalent what we gave up for him (Sam Fuld).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    So why don't we simply elect players to the HOF while they are active? I think the final career body of work is meant to be an important factor. Other factors disagreeing with this criteria being too important: the 5 year waiting period, up to 10 years of ballot eligibility (formerly 15), and the very-low 5% bar for continued eligibility. And face it: many players in the HOF, including several elected recently, were not considered all-time greats while active (i.e. Blyleven). Or may have been considered such only briefly/erroneously (Rice, Sutter).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I might quibble with "lots" there. Of the 797 guys to throw a MLB pitch in 2014, just 2 were 40 or older -- and both of them were very well-established MLB pitchers by Boyer's age (Hawkins and Colon). And it's not just the age that's at issue -- it's the age and the quality/upside. Boyer's record has been pretty marginal, and the likelihood of him improving enough to finally stick in MLB at age 33 is slim. By comparison, when we signed Jared Burton, he was 3 years younger with a better track record of performance. Casey Fien was 5 years younger with a good minor league track record and 6 controllable seasons ahead of him (Boyer is about 3.5 months away from full free agency). Guerrier was 8 years younger than Boyer when we first signed him, again fully controlled for 6+ seasons.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas' walk rates were fine in the minors, so I think it was primarily an adjustment thing.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    17 full season equivalents total, as compared to Molitor's 20 and Oliva's 11. Sorry, thought that was clear. Molitor is better but I definitely do not see a HOF in/out line between Molitor and Raines. They are both career candidates more than peak. Most of Molitor's value came in 13 seasons too, which is longer than Oliva's entire career. Oliva has the peak of a career candidate but without the career, if that makes sense.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    It seems like you are quarantining Raines' peak from the rest of the career. Both parts happened. And it's not a "short peak" case -- it's a solid peak PLUS a fairly long career of usefulness, the equivalent of 17 full 600 PA seasons (not as many as Molitor at 20 such seasons, but well ahead of Oliva's 11). With a WAR/PA rate still better than Oliva's! If Oliva played 6 more full seasons, and improved his WAR/PA rate in that extra time, yeah, I'd support him as much as Raines. Just looking at Rbat -- batting runs above average, with no defense, base running, or positional adjustment -- Raines accumulated Rbat at almost exactly the same rate as Molitor. Yet Molitor is "a pretty obvious HOFer" because he did it for 20 years and Raines "only" 17? I know we've had some really long career guys lately (Molitor, Henderson, Ripken, Jeter, etc.), but 17 full seasons is still the median career length for modern HOF batters (retired after 1990). No one is arguing that Raines is inner-circle or anything, but the man deserved election some time ago, before ballot crowding was even a concern. Same for Trammell, etc.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Peak isn't the only way to get a HOF career. Is Biggie not in your persona HOF? Tony Gwynn? Paul Molitor? Eddie Murray? Ozzie Smith? Dave Winfield? Carlton Fisk?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    April 19
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm more concerned about the promise to Stauffer about starting -- competition for the remaining rotation spot is a lot greater than bullpen right now, no?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I've heard Perkins speak favorably of bullpen roles in interviews. They could be what saved his career. Of course, like most relievers, I am pretty sure he wouldn't object to a slightly modified role with a good rationale behind it (i.e. pitching in more tie games or even trailing by a run, pitching an extra inning occasionally, perhaps even ceding some saves if we develop a shutdown RHP, etc.).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Petco?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And he's not a former Twin, so presumably the 40-man spot is not guaranteed.
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