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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I too don't know quite how MLB hitters prepare, but I doubt they cram much pitcher-specific preparation in the innings immediately prior. They don't know whether they are going to bat in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, or all of the above, until very late in the process. And they're never completely blindsided by a new pitcher -- they know who's on the roster, they see them warming up, and unless they happen to be the leadoff batter, they even see (and likely speak to) teammates who bat against him before taking their own turn. This actually reminds me of suggestions for hitters to change their approach by opponent/situation. To be a competent MLB hitter against 90+ MPH pitches, I think you've almost got to be a machine. (Think of their between-pitch rituals.) I would guess most guys who try to vary their approach, or who would get rattled by a seeing a different pitcher in the 8th than they were expecting, probably don't make it to MLB or don't last long. If I were a relief pitcher, and my manager called on me to pitch the 8th inning to try catching an opponent off-guard, I would think that manager was pretty nutso. (Now, pitch me in the 8th for match ups, or have me do the 8th AND 9th to extend the pen, and I'm all ears.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Bonifacio is no star, but he's about as thorough and proven as a super-sub can be. In one roster spot, they've got a backup infielder, backup outfielder, not-embarrassing starter at 2B or CF if necessary, potential defensive sub at about 4 positions, pinch-runner, etc. Now they can more easily start a bat-first 2B, 3B, and/or corner OF if they want, and they can also afford to carry more one-dimensional bench guys (i.e. Viciedo). And no worries that they're stunting development by using a younger player in that role, or wasting surplus value like the Twins might face with Escobar in a similar role.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Difficult -- but not impossible! http://twitter.com/cle_ohsports/status/549319671837900800
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    OK, back on topic... Are you suggesting that closer effectiveness diminishes more than that of set-up men? I don't think that's clear at all. If you've seen a study or something to that effect, I would be interested, but I think any general effect one might suspect in that regard would be drowned out by much larger effects (different pitch repertoire, platoon splits, even marginal differences in pitcher quality, etc.). I think the key distinction, in terms of hitter preparation (and adjustment), is simply between starters and relievers. Among relievers, I doubt there is a constant effect.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is the Sickels link -- it's just his top 20 Twins prospect list, so you may have seen it already: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/11/8/7157261/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2015-sickels Are you referring to the following Kiley McDaniel piece? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/ I didn't mean to nitpick, but it's just my natural reaction when I see a list of low minors guys. The Twins could be sitting pretty in 2017-2018 if a number of them pan out, although by that point our bullpen may be completely turned over -- not sure if we'd really have a surplus to do anything unorthodox with.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar was the better hitter in 2014, and is probably the better shortstop, but Bonifacio at this price clearly improves the White Sox, no? Even if it is mostly bench/depth? He should actually be a good complement to Viciedo on the bench: one has power, the other has everything else.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Part of the problem is that most teams have multiple relievers of roughly equal quality. Deploying them in a different order, or getting a few more outs from one at the expense of another, really doesn't make that big of a difference. Particularly over the large sample of games that is the regular season. That said, I hate saving closers for save situations -- I'd clearly do away with that. I'd aim for 70-80 IP from each of my top relievers, and I'd try to deploy them in the late innings of virtually every close game (even tied and trailing) and avoid their mop-up appearances. Perhaps, depending on match-ups, I'd even make two or even three inning appearances more common, with the understanding that I couldn't use that pitcher the next day, but it could help avoid lesser relievers appearing in potential innings 10-12 or so.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Name - age, highest level (Sickels grade) Burdi - almost 22, A+ (B-) Chargois - age 24, Rk © Melotakis - age 23, AA (C+) Zack Jones - age 24, A+ © Reed - age 22, A (C+) Landa - age 20, A (NR) Romero - age 20, A (NR) Cederoth - age 22, Rk (C+) Boozer - age 22, Rk (NR) Meyer - age 25, AAA (B+) Irby - age 22, Rk (NR) Poulson - almost 25, Rk (NR) Johnson - age 26, AA (NR) Tyler Jones - age 25, A+ © Van Steensel - almost 24, A+ (NR) Peterson - age 23, A+ © Williams - age 24, A+ (NR) The only guy with AAA experience (Meyer) has yet to make a professional relief appearance. Only two AA guys on the list, Melotakis and Johnson, neither of whom dominated their leagues much last year in terms of H/9 or run prevention, despite nice K rates (and Johnson is pretty old already!). Right now, your evaluation of these guys is relying an awful lot on rookie league or A-ball stats of college pitchers (and perhaps too much on inconsistent or "peak" radar gun readings as well). No doubt, it's a better system than a few years ago, it's nice to have multiple interesting names coming out of recent drafts, and I too am excited about Burdi, as evidence suggests he could be on the fast track; otherwise, talk of forming a dominant MLB bullpen from this group is at least a year too early (although I will gladly give you "early bandwagon" credit if you turn out to be right. )
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Further breakdown: it's actually a $3 mil salary for Bonifacio in 2015, plus a $4 mil club option for 2016 (or $1 mil buyout).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I too think this article is a bit premature, but to be fair, Slama wasn't really a hard thrower -- he racked up minor league strikeouts by other means. Billy Bullock might be a better cautionary tale from recent Twins memory. Or Jim Hoey, Lester Oliveros, Stephen Pryor, etc. Some of the current guys may be better bets, but I'm not going to expect an embarrassment of riches in this department until we see a few of these guys healthy and still dominating above A-ball.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I am wrong, but I would guess that most guys with a solid bench spot in MLB are either average with the bat at a corner position, average with the glove up the middle, or have a big platoon advantage from one side (or have some history at that level of performance). Parmelee offers none of that. Take a look around MLB and try to find a team that would really benefit from adding 2014 Parmelee to its roster. (An aside: are there really many solid "bench players" in MLB anymore? Starting nine, backup C, backup IF, backup CF/OF -- there's maybe 1 bench spot left per team that a guy like Parmelee could even theoretically take, assuming it's not already filled with a former/part-time starter or an extra pitcher.) Now, if by "bench player" you mean a guy who might show up on an MLB bench from time to time due to injury or ineffectiveness, sure Parmelee could profile as that, but that's not a very high bar. You may as well call Liam Hendriks an "MLB starter" too (and at least Hendriks has yet to go unclaimed, as Parmelee has twice in the past year). I find it interesting that two of the most common takes on this thread are "Parmelee didn't get enough of a chance to play everyday in Minnesota" and "Parmelee should find a role as a decent bench bat."
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I know 400 PA isn't a "full season" -- I was just saying his full season pace was 400 PA, sorry if it was bad wording. That's obviously not a full-time starter but it's not rotting on the bench either. And by 2014, I think the onus was already on Parmelee to show some signs of notable improvement to earn more playing time than that, and he didn't. He got his best chance over the first half of 2013 (490 PA season pace) and was pretty terrible, showing zero improvement over a dreadful 2012 MLB performance. He had already passed through waivers in March. At that point, I don't think an extra start or two a week means anything. Look around the league. Every batting title qualifier (502+ PA) with a worse hitting line than Parmelee is on the other side of the defensive spectrum and/or has had better past performance than Parmelee. Fringe RF/1B prospects have to show SOMETHING in MLB to warrant 500-600 PA seasons. Parmelee might consider himself lucky that he got 900 MLB PA.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Stauffer actually only faced a pitcher 2 times in his 3 starts last season, thanks to some very early exits and a pinch hitter. He faced pitchers in 9 PA while in relief. He faced even more pitchers batting in 2013 (16 PA) when he was used exclusively in relief. Good to be mindful of, but I would guess the effect to be pretty minimal, especially for a low-leverage reliever.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I still don't get this. Parmelee played over half the 2013 season at a 490 PA full season pace, and showed basically zero improvement over his dismal 84 OPS+ 2012 season (when he was admittedly shuffled around a lot, albeit before/during his AAA breakout). And after being recalled in May 2014, he played the next 3 months (over half a season again) at a 400 PA full season pace too, with pretty marginal improvement over past performance. Given Parmelee's history and profile, that seems like a plenty good opportunities. It's not that common for guys with a similar profile to actually get 500+ PA full seasons at RF/1B without some history of better performance, even on last place teams. Just eyeballing the worst 2014 teams around the league, only Viciedo stands out as similar, and he's a bit of a special case ($10 mil contract out of Cuba) and a bit better hitter than Parmelee over 2012-2014 too. If there are any future regrets to be had with Parmelee, they wouldn't be based on playing time -- they would simply be, why couldn't we coax a better performance out of him.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In 2014, his best MLB season post-September 2011, Parmelee was notably worse than MLB non-pitcher averages in isolated power, BB%, K%, OBP, and SLG. He was only better than average in AVG by .001 (perhaps only due to a +.016 advantage in BABIP?). Consistently below average at both offense and defense, at the poor end of the defensive spectrum, does not indicate "bench bat at worst" to me. That's "replacement level" or perhaps even a little worse.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the part that worries me. Even if he doesn't make the rotation out of the gate, presumably he will receive long looks in spring training over better long-term starting options. And does this assurance mean that as soon as another starter is injured or falters, the Twins will be obligated to use Stauffer as the first replacement? The temptation will be strong to do so, as he will already be on the roster and the AAA rotation may not be lined up properly at that moment. Also, this suggests we didn't target Stauffer as a potential bargain dominant bullpen arm.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Given that it's not even January yet, I think he could/should still be considered the backup. He just doesn't need a 40-man roster spot right now. The Twins have had a few guys on their opening day rosters the past few years who weren't placed on the 40-man until just before the season started. Perhaps this means they're not too enamored of Fryer that they would risk losing him, but it is also quite likely they already knew he was willing to accept that AAA assignment here if they needed his 40-man spot over the winter (especially if they told him it's a paper move and he's still a leading candidate for the backup spot out of spring training).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I read that at Baseball America too, but it seemed weird. Isn't a post-draft, pre-signing physical (including an MRI for pitchers) pretty much standard? Was it not back in 2003?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Parker, just a word of caution that FIP is not park or league adjusted. FIP- (lower is better, 100 is average) at Fangraphs is what you want to use here. FIP- 2013-2014: Swarzak 90 Stauffer 94 Burton 100 So even in terms of FIP, Stauffer basically split the difference between Swarzak and Burton the past two seasons.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Fryer could still be considered the backup -- somebody usually falls off the roster or hits the 60-day DL before opening day, right?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins already have two starting OF who should be rotating through DH when possible. Adding a full-time DH seems counter-productive at this point.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    What's weird is that many of us thought the same thing last offseason -- why would he lock himself into a 3 year deal when his value was so low? I rationalized it by saying he wanted some decent cash and a shot to hit the market again at age 30, but this seems to throw that out the window. It certainly seems as if Hughes bucks the conventional wisdom around MLB contracts.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Ledezma's Japan K/9 was below league average. He did best that in Mexico and in Venezuela so far, which surprised me -- I thought they might be higher-K leagues, but not really. Off topic, but interesting from the Venezuelan stats that Eduardo Escobar is still basically repeating his stats there from last winter -- low-ish average and OBP but decent power.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't be so sure these guys are all "flippable". Remember, Santana failed to get a contract offer like this last offseason. Nolasco might have failed to get his similar contract too if we hadn't desperately wanted to sign someone early. And remember, Nolasco was worth very little midseason 2013, despite having the 2nd best season of his career and no long-term commitment. I think "flippability" tends to get over-rated. Teams looking to trade for a Santana or Nolasco type pitcher don't necessarily want multiple years of control. That's more where one-year deals come into play, and the Twins generally don't approach free agency that way.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2015 Twins schedule includes a few off days in April, but it only really eliminates the "need" for a 5th starter for about 2 weeks -- they would need one before their third rotation turn is complete. And that's only if you show a willingness to "skip" the 5th starter spot -- I would guess the Twins (and most clubs) usually stick to a strict 5-man rotation, barring injuries or other transactions. With the 5th starter options we have, I would be surprised if we skipped that spot much.
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