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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins need to option him again next year at age 27, then he probably isn't terribly valuable anyway.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect that angle is overplayed. Not sure if there is definitively more benefit in throwing 30% more changeups to minor league hitters than throwing, say, 10% or whatever to major league hitters. That said, I am not arguing for his promotion; just thought Seth's estimate of his present MLB performance was curious (and perhaps overly optimistic?).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Et tu, Pelfrey?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? A 4.50 ERA would be Kyle Gibson 2014. I don't know if a guy is really going to improve his ceiling by dominating minor leaguers, as compared to holding his own against big leaguers.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As others allude to, that was taken from Gameday, and they weren't recording every pitch during spring training games. Just the ones that resulted in Ks, BBs, or balls in play. His pitch count was probably around 80 for that game, not really different than the other starters at that point in spring training (Milone was estimated at 90 the day before).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought Ryan did handle it. He probably would have kept Santana as the ace in 2008, let him walk, and collected a pair of draft picks, as he did for most other pending free agents.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't forget, they could also spend about $500k over their cap (15%) without incurring penalties for future signing periods. So they could have about $1 mil leftover.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    It does look like most sources are reporting Nolasco to the 15-day DL, and May starting Monday.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    You can say that about any GM. In fact, knowing who to listen to, and when to listen to them, is a huge part of being a "general manager." If TR is smart enough not to let those voices impact major decisions, that's a plus for him. If Bill Smith wasn't, that's a demerit for him. "Hugely positive" is a bit too far. Improving our international presence in 2008 was akin to a business finally getting a web site about the same time -- it was such an obvious and necessary move, it was more or less bound to happen by then, regardless of who was in charge. (And "Fort Myers" refers to Hammond Stadium, and our spring training facilities? I am sure those upgrades are appreciated, but such upgrades seem pretty standard around pro sports these days.) I'm willing to give Smith some credit for those things, just like I give him credit for his aggressive low-risk additions like Pavano, Cabrera, etc. But there's no way those things aren't dwarfed by his numerous bungled high-risk moves.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    2009 was definitely the best year of Smith's tenure, I'd say. His biggest screw-up that year was probably dumping Breslow for Sean Henn. (Signing Mauer *before* his MVP season probably would have been wise too, if that was an option.) Otherwise, in 2009 Smith added Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera, and Carl Pavano for very little cost, in addition to the amateur signings you mention. Then he also got Hardy (albeit costing Gomez), Hudson, and Thome in the 2009-2010 offseason. TR was rarely that aggressive in filling holes, and I think it held us back some years. Record-wise, 2008 and 2010 were similar to 2009, but Smith just bleeded us of too much talent in those two years, setting up the 2011 collapse.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Bauer? No. He doesn't even have a full season of service time yet (only 158 days, according to B-Ref). He won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2016 season. Additionally, he won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season -- the same that May/Meyer would have been, if they had broke camp with the big club this year and didn't get sent down. That said, I will also note that Bauer was one of the last draftees to sign a major league contract, back in 2011. He was placed on the 40-man roster immediately back in 2011, using option years beginning in 2012, I believe. So his teams had a bit more incentive to get him to MLB quickly, and he's not necessarily a good comp for May/Meyer.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    My first Twins game, Paul Molitor hit for the cycle! For the Brewers... http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN199105150.shtml
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    So it'll just grow back again, then, will it?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Also calls to mind these higher-profile misspellings: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/4368396/ http://m.mlb.com/news/article/9128108/
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, there may not be a spell check if it's some kind of video editing program. Still doesn't excuse "San Francisco Mariners"! Also, this was from an over-the-air local broadcast -- may not have the budget of the cable broadcasts? In any case, I'd gladly accept whatever misspellings, bad camera work, or crazy announcers the Twins would throw my way, if they'd just go back to even one game a week on local over-the-air TV.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, I saw Bergman beat the Yankees that year! In New York, no less. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200004250.shtml I wish we could have paid $1.2 mil for encore performances of that in 2003, 2004, 2009, and 2010.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Depends on the nature of their insurance for his contract. Usually, even though such payments are only mentioned publicly when a player misses an entire season, I think they are based on actual DL days, rather than seasons. Here's an old article referencing that: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2008/05/Issue-162/Leagues-Governing-Bodies/MLB-Teams-Insure-Long-Term-Deals-To-Protect-From-Player-Injury.aspx It would be interesting to see how much insurance the Twins have on Nolasco's contract. Perhaps as part of their strategy of targeting durable pitchers like Nolasco and Ervin Santana, the team could have tried to save money on insurance premiums with reduced coverage (higher threshold for claims, lower benefit payouts, etc.).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2015 Cubs traded their third baseman for a starting CF, in the process of making room for the immediately ready Bryant. The 2007-2008 Rays traded their third baseman for a top setup reliever, in the process of making room for the immediately ready Longoria. The 2003-2004 Twins traded their catcher for a top setup reliever (and multiple SP prospects), in the process of making room for Mauer (who wasn't obviously immediately ready, but had already dominated AA). The 2012 Nationals brought back virtually their entire outfield from the year prior, and didn't trade/release anyone from that outfield until 3 months after Harper's debut. The 2012 Angels likewise brought back their entire outfield, even after Trout had 40 MLB games under his belt.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone had an option remaining too. And when none of your MLB roster has any remaining options (like our original opening day bullpen, except for Fien), you're eventually going to have to release someone to see any of that depth anyway. Defaulting to keep every out-of-option guy first is in many cases just delaying the inevitable, and wasting evaluation opportunities.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Parker: you might want to correct this. Gameday's pitch-by-pitch recording wasn't working for this game (possibly not for any spring game?). It was simply showing the minimum possible number of pitches based on the result of each PA (3 for strikeout, 4 for walk, and only 1 for a batted ball), except for the 2 HR which were both 3 pitch PAs. (It would be pretty remarkable to face 22 batters, with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts, and throw only 33 pitches!) Gameday also reported a pitch count of 35 for Milone the day before, facing 23 batters (5 innings), with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. (Sorry to dig up an older article, but I just found it when doing a Google search for Trevor May's spring pitch counts.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    May was stretched out almost as much as anyone else. The reported pitch count of 33 for his last spring start was erroneous, the pitch-by-pitch feature of MLB Gameday was only recording the minimum possible number of pitches based on the result of each PA (3 for strikeout, 4 for walk, and only 1 for a batted ball). May faced 22 batters in 5 innings that day, as compared to Milone facing 23 in 5 innings the day prior (and I found an article crediting Milone with a pitch count of around 90 that game, even though Gameday only shows 35).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope I didn't come across as suggesting the pitch was worthy of being a called strike. The degree of West's mistake is small. But Hunter gave him multiple chances to make such a mistake. And Hunter made each of those chances extra significant by falling into an 0-2 hole to begin with (and the team made them significant by being down 4 runs with 2 outs in the 9th). Basically, the degree of Hunter's criticism of West doesn't match the degree of West's mistake -- it's greatly inflated by the actions of Hunter. Which isn't unusual among pro athletes (or people in general, I suppose), but it doesn't really make me more sympathetic to such heightened levels of criticism.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin clearly doesn't fit such a rationalization, if he presumably tested positive AFTER signing his biggest contract ever at age 32. (And in any case, tested positive after $55 million in pre-Twins career earnings.) I don't think either side is going to be filled with perfectly rational actors, which is why I don't want one side to have a massive financial incentive ($100+ million!) to see a player fail a PED test. I would definitely increase the frequency of testing before I would even entertain the notion that contracts should be voidable after one positive PED test.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that's a pretty binary view which I don't share, either the assumption that a failed PED test = career-long PED user, and failed PED test = performance is a lie. I have no problem with requiring a PED test as part of the standard physical before finalizing a FA contract, I guess. But Santana's case is definitely an outlier in that regard (has any FA ever been suspended before playing a game with his new team?). Anything more than that is giving the teams too much of an out for decisions that are probably only tangentially affected by the player's PED use, in my opinion. I'd rather encourage and reward teams to be effective in factoring PED likelihood and effects into their pre-contract player assessments, than give major financial relief to teams that fail to do so (not to mention the aforementioned incentives to foul play).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously. I am NOT suggesting that West should be allowed to do that. But Hunter was relying on multiple close judgement calls to go his way to stay alive. It's an unreasonable expectation. It's akin to a pitcher expecting the exact same favorable judgement call on every similar borderline pitch. It doesn't take ineffectiveness or malfeasance from the umpire to wind up with an occasional unfavorable outcome on such calls. (Torii's probably not alone in failing to see that, though -- I would expect most pro athletes would similarly mis-apportion the blame for that outcome, although obviously not all would react like Torii, particularly post game).
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