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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's assuming an unfair level of perfection/precision on the umpire, though. It isn't unreasonable, given the natural constraints in place (speed, vantage point, etc.), that in real-time West saw the second swing as greater, or meeting some additional criteria, as compared to the first. Offering the bat at two-strike pitches is playing with fire, and has been since time immemorial. It's a skill to avoid doing that, and to avoid those situations. Hunter getting burned after his second such offering does not seem like an unreasonable outcome to me, regardless of how you want to dissect the performance of West. How much validity does a football team's complaints carry, when they allow a close touchdown on second-and-goal from the 1, after a similar play resulted in no touchdown on first-and-goal from the 1, after they allowed the other team to reach first-and-goal on the 1 in the first place (we'll presume without the aid of a bad call)?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They wouldn't need to compromise the testing authority. Spiking a player's creatine shake would suffice, no? Still sounds a little far-fetched, but I don't even want that to be an option or a temptation. The team already saves the salary for the suspension period -- that's enough. First offense is half a season, second offense is full season -- those are significant money savings in free agent deals. And third offense is a lifetime ban, which is an effective voiding of the contract. Teams shouldn't get a "get out of jail free card", a do-over to re-evaluate whether signing the player was a good idea in the first place, for any reason, with the benefit of hindsight, due to one failed PED test. Consider it one of the risks of signing players on the FA market, and like other FA risks, it varies from player to player (and from team to team, how well you know/evaluate players too).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Torii Hunter fell behind 0-2 in the count. Then he at least partially offered to swing at the next two pitches. Barring an Eric Gregg style call, it should surprise no one, including Hunter, that he was called on strikes by that point. Part of the skill of baseball, or any sport, is not putting yourself in razor-thin margin for error situations like that. Not falling behind 0-2, keeping the bat on your shoulder for balls, etc. Hunter failed in that plate appearance by multiple criteria, plain and simple. Expecting repeated favorable judgement calls is never a realistic expectation, no matter how good the ump.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins have let a returning/veteran starter last until August (if not the full season) riding a ~5 ERA every year since 2002. Hopefully they will be more aggressive this year with May and Meyer both repeating AAA, especially if they have multiple middling starters around that level, but there isn't much evidence to suggest they actively look to replace those types of guys early.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't derail this thread, but you can see my comments here on that topic: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17438-bryant-sent-to-minors/page-4?do=findComment&comment=318139
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Although it was more costly for the Mets, who didn't have a protected first rounder. The Twins would have lost their 3rd rounder instead (or some equivalent).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Am I the only one who thinks allowing deals to be voided like this would be a terrible idea? Teams would have a MASSIVE incentive for some of their players to fail a test. Like, $175 million worth, in the case of Albert Pujols right now. Even if you think the teams are generally trustworthy and wouldn't resort to foul play, it's just a bad idea to give people/organizations incentives like that for negative outcomes. (Similar to insurance awards too -- you get an amount equivalent to what you directly lost, but you don't get a lottery type windfall.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't that make it look worse for Hunter? I mean, how many borderline check swings does he expect to make and get the preferred outcome? (Not to mention falling behind 0-2 to begin with...) Hunter (and the Twins) gave himself no margin for error in the situation, at all. I have little sympathy for teams/players who do that and then see a borderline call go against them.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This kind of leash definition is incomplete -- what threshold of performance would be necessary for said pitcher to lose his job at that point? I would be shocked if a veteran in the opening day rotation only got 3-4 starts, unless they were injured and/or absolute disasters (maybe 10+ ERA?). Pelfrey got 5 starts last year, with an almost 8 ERA, and only got bounced at that time due to injury. People also forget that at the same time Pelfrey got bounced at 7.99, Correia was sporting a 7.33. And it slowly got better, as he finally got it under 5 in July before he was traded in August. (Also see 2013 Pelfrey.) THAT is the long rotation leash to fear -- how long are they going to stick with a guy with an ERA of 5, or an ERA around 6 but slowly improving towards 5.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you friends with Thielbar?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    While it's hard to blame the Twins, the downside risk of a injury or suspension is greater when you sign over-30 players (and average-ish over-30 players to boot), which is something the Twins have been doing repeatedly lately. A 28 year old injured/suspended for the first half season of a four year contract? Not a huge problem, you still have full ages 29-31. A 32 year old ace missing for the first half season of a contract? Sucks, but the player is good enough that even with some decline, ages 33-35 project as useful. An average-ish 32 year old? The team really needs that first year to get good value on that contract. Very weird that Santana was suspended before even playing a game with his new team (has that ever happened before?), but the Twins were sorta playing with fire by targeting these kind of players, and have arguably been burned twice already (Nolasco injury, Santana suspension).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, that same league priority is just for "trade assignment waivers" which I think is generally just the August trade waivers. I think outright waivers (what the Giants would have used to remove Brown from the 40-man roster) has no league priority, just record: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525 To expand further, I think the reason for it in August is so league leading teams always have a chance to claim a player and block a trade in their own league. Otherwise, league distinctions are pretty meaningless in modern MLB.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Eduardo Nunez says Gibson's infield fly tendencies are hardly "rare"
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    League average K/9 for Webb's leagues was like 6.7, and Webb was at 7.3. League average K/9 for Gibson's league is now 7.7. Gibby would need to be at 8 or more to be Webb's equivalent in that department. Not that Gibson can't be good at 7 K/9, but I don't know that he'd be Webb level.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    There is such a rule, but it can be waived for injury (and apparently suspension). Thompson was optioned just like May -- he was still on the 40-man roster.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    May faced 22 batters in his last spring start. If he did that on 33 pitches, he's the most efficient pitcher ever. Also when they decided the 5th starter spot a week ago, May had 10.2 IP, Pelfrey 13.2, and Milone 14. I believe May and Milone had also pitched in minor league games that didn't count against those stats.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess the CBA prohibits PED clauses. It would give teams a massive incentive for foul play.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Dan Naulty. Also, Matt Lawton was busted several years after leaving the Twins (in the first year of testing).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pohlads what? Will be more turned off on big FA than Ryan?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if there was much of an appeal process? Did the Twins know this was coming? Also, I hope this and last year's Nolasco fiasco doesn't turn off TR on signing bigger money free agents. He just needs more practice, is all.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Ideally, you would sub out both corner outfielders at times. (That's why I thought it might be better to dump Nunez for a real outfielder.) Not sure if Herrmann would be the guy to do it, but I am guessing they won't do that to Hunter anyway.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspected Pelfrey would get first crack at any rotation opening, but I really didn't want to find out like this...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Holy cow. Despite my message board pessimism, I was actually looking forward to this season. This is quite the bombshell.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I am just waiting for the Dave St. Peter tweet, "Amazed at focus on 20th through 25th men on the roster."
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    After letting Shane Robinson go...
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