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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I've noticed lately that when I click on an article through the forums, the display of links is all messed up within them. From the lead paragraph of Nick's article today: If I visit the article directly from the homepage, it's fine, but not from the forums. Seems to be an issue across the desktop and mobile versions, in all of the browsers I've used lately (Safari, Chrome, Android stock browser). Doesn't seem to affect links in non-article forum posts, although those are likely embedded/processed differently.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hold it now -- "complete transformation"? From B-Ref: 2015 (57 balls in play): 18% pulled, 72% up the middle, 11% opposite field, 46% grounders Career (4173 BIP): 18% pulled, 61% up the middle, 25% opposite field, 52% grounders I don't doubt he's making adjustments, but I think it falls somewhat shy of "complete transformation" that's worth of a pause and recognition at this point. He's faced a small subset of the teams/pitchers/parks he will face over the full season, and he's within 2-4 events of 2014 or career marks in most measurements.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Pinto has almost 400 PA at AAA. Vargas has zero. Vargas could still probably benefit from some AAA time. Same for Santana. And not unlike Pinto last year (prior to which he only had 75 PA at AAA), or Hicks in 2013 (and 2014, 2015...).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If you use the original poster's definition of journeyman -- "a worker, performer, or athlete who is experienced and good but not excellent" -- that could apply to Plouffe, although I tend to agree more with Seth's definition. But at that point, there is no way Schafer fits under that same definition. He's been among the worst hitters in MLB his entire career, in a group that generally exceeds him in defensive/positional value. He's been surrendered on waivers twice in the last 2.5 years. Given his service time, his salary is almost at an effective minimum. If Schafer is "good", then every player in MLB is at least "good" too. Maybe if you are considering a universe of players larger than that of MLB (say, including all minor leaguers), but then anybody who makes MLB could almost by definition be "excellent." In that case, a journeyman would be more of a minor league veteran.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be very surprised if Detroit ever hired Gardenhire to manage. It would be a little like the Yankees hiring Grady Little or some other failed pre-2004 Red Sox manager, after thoroughly seeing his weaknesses and failures close-up. Frankly, I will be a little surprised if he lands anywhere in MLB as manager. He doesn't have experience in any organization other than the Twins, at least for his entire coaching/managerial career of 30 years. That's pretty unusual, isn't it? His record was solid overall for the Twins, but he inherited a solid team. His playoff record is almost too awful to ignore, so what team with realistic playoff aspirations is going to want him? And he was eventually fired by a team solidly in rebuild mode, so what rebuilding team is really going to want him at the helm? Maybe he could be a Plan B or C for someone, but even then, it seems like teams could just as easily find an interesting rookie manager like Doug, Redmond, etc. (And it seems like teams are more willing to go with an inexperienced manager these days, although I haven't studied it.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Hunter aware that Griffey's Seattle reunion was more or less an unmitigated disaster? Did that not come up when Griffey had his retirement breakfast with Hunter after leaving Seattle unannounced? The parallels are a little troublesome. Age 37-38: Griffey: 286 games, 111 OPS+, -17 Rfield Hunter: 287 games, 114 OPS+, -28 Rfield Hopefully that is where the similarities end! Seattle then signed Griffey for his age 39 season, albeit for only $2 mil guaranteed and primarily to DH. He posted a 97 OPS+, was re-signed for his age 40 season, then dropped off to a 30 OPS+ over two months before the retirement/desertion fiasco.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    A balk call here would have been the "technicality" call. No call was the common sense call (and probably the rule book call too).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I guarantee that Yost would have questioned it, KC fans would have questioned it, and it probably would have gotten national notice at Fangraphs, etc. The ball left his hand before the foot touched down, but just barely. Almost certainly no umpire could have detected it without replay unless they were specifically watching for it. I just looked at the frames of the animated GIF, and there is a two frame difference between the two events, out of 82 frames total. Maybe 1/14 of a second? And even then, there's nothing inherently wrong with such an alteration unless it's considered an alteration in the context of the rule. The word "alteration" is invoked in the rule with the word "interruption", so I suspect they are two sides of the same coin. Once begun, the pitcher can't stop or notably pause his delivery, and he also can't notably lengthen his delivery to achieve the same effect (I am thinking the exaggerated cartoon windmill windup?).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm all for delaying Nolasco's return too. But if in a couple weeks, Pelfrey is sitting at a 3.30 ERA with bad peripherals, and May/Gibson are around 4.80 or whatever, I'd have no problem shifting Pelf back to the pen and leaving the kids in the rotation. It's quite likely we could use the help in the bullpen, in addition to the young starters needing innings. (And as a side benefit, if Thompson is still pitching well, hopefully it could force out an underperformer from the pen, like Boyer or Stauffer.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the clarification. I actually was reading it as two players, a low level prospect PLUS a starter which was more than what you intended. And given that Correia was absolutely worthless on the trade market, being more valuable than him doesn't necessarily return anything interesting. And as you say, Pelfrey's not even there yet -- he's got what, 1-2 starts here, with good results by bad peripherals. Long way to go.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Sam's post hit the nail on the head for me. Nice risk by Hunter, good reaction by Guthrie/Perez, and a good call (or no call) by the ump. There are situations where I wouldn't want to take this risk (and Hunter has done that before, like diving for Kotsay's liner in the 2006 playoffs, or getting thrown out at third trying to stretch a double in the 2004 playoffs), but the second inning of an April game is a fine time for it. Go baseball!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    What exactly does "low level plus starter type" return mean? It sounds high for a non-elite rental player. Bud Norris got a pair of interesting prospects and a competitive balance pick at the deadline two years ago, but he was 28 years old at the time and controlled for two seasons beyond. In terms of contract, age, control, and even performance, Pelfrey is probably a lot closer to Correia, who we had to give away last August despite 9 months of healthy average starting pitching out of his previous 10. Pelfrey's value to this team is almost entirely in his present-season performance.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Speaking of AA strikeouts, I know they had a rash of them to open the season, but could it also be an effect of Mientkiewicz's tone down there? Which would be a little ironic, because he didn't K much as a player himself.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Foolish headline, but I thought the article was decent. Jordan Schafer will be replaced, and when we do that, there is a chance that Buxton might be the best option. Of course, the article doesn't really set a date or performance threshold, but if Buxton turns things around and gets close to an .800 OPS in AA, with a decent handle on those strikeouts, that may be all it takes.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I am imagining Seth wearing a stethoscope and a white lab coat to make this verification.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But what do you do when Nolasco comes back, then? Send May down? Gibson?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    ...and bringing my rant back on the direct topic: I too want to see Hicks finally build a foundation in AAA, but I also really don't want to see Schafer out there as a MLB starter anymore. Given our history with Hicks, I guess grudgingly watching yet another terrible CF in Schafer for awhile longer is probably the lesser of the two evils.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Fuld is probably best as a 4th OF, but here are the career numbers: Fuld: 87 wRC+, 13.1 UZR/150 (8.4 in CF), 2.1 fWAR per 500 PA Schafer: 71 wRC+, -3.9 UZR/150 (-5.4 in CF), 0.1 fWAR per 500 PA Fuld would be an asset as a 4th OF and passable as a CF starter. Schafer is probably best as a 5th outfielder / pinch runner, if that. (And for the age difference, Fuld actually has the same amount of service time as Schafer, so their salaries and years of team control remaining are virtually the same.) I didn't mind flipping Fuld for Milone, but I also wouldn't have been upset if the Twins had said "so this is what a decent CF looks like" and held on to Fuld instead, especially if the plan was to move Santana back to SS, install Schafer in CF and Hicks in AAA, commit to two more questionable gloves in the OF corners, and then sign yet another FA SP long-term (somewhat reducing Milone's potential value to us). Sorry for the rant, but man, this has been a maddening CF/OF progression (regression?) to watch the past few years...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Since when is a statement of fact presumed to be an offer to bet? Too bad the Twins didn't "take the under" after Schafer's much more modest OPS+ late last season... Hey, if you find someone interested in betting, perhaps you could similarly "take the under" on Tommy Milone's 2015 performance to date.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd take it. In fact, if you are really committed to Escobar as a super-utility guy, you probably should get him more OF time too, if your alternative is Schafer/Robinson. Like 2014, both Santana and Escobar could start most every game, you would just be altering the mix of positions.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, we probably wouldn't be talking about whether to bring up Hicks or not right now if we had a better Plan A than Schafer/Robinson. Schafer and Robinson's names are in the first sentence of this thread, for Pete Redfern's sake. I didn't mean to harp on it, but this is the third year in a row where we're discussing promoting Hicks based primarily on factors other than the merits of Hicks' own performance. The primary factor being the absence or predictable quick failure of CF alternatives. It's hard not to comment on that without complaint.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I totally get that it is past time to bench Jordan Schafer, which sadly was fairly easy to predict. And Shane Robinson isn't a promising alternative. But it's also time to accept that this team is perpetually under- or just un-prepared in the outfield and we can't let that affect our handling of Hicks anymore. It's early and he still has plenty of warts, but Colby Rasmus has a 130 OPS+ this year, and has even shifted to LF with the spring emergence of Marisnick in Houston. Chris Young has hit quite well for the Yankees too since being acquired and re-signed around the same time as Schafer. Recent Twins property Sam Fuld has a 148 OPS+ for Oakland as well. But I am sure someone will chime in how Schafer/Robinson was a better investment this year, just as Hicks/Mastroianni/Thomas/Bartlett were the best options the past two years...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on not rushing Hicks, but Robinson does not hit better against lefties, despite being a RHB. Career .589 OPS vs LHP, .651 vs RHP. His recent minor league splits are similar too. (Not that he's a desirable offensive platoon option against either...)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer's history isn't completely finished, but it largely is. Don't get me wrong -- I am a big fan of Hrbek. But Mauer's individual accomplishments are pretty incredible (3 batting titles at catcher, 3 Gold Gloves, the MVP, 5 Sliver Sluggers, 6 All-Star appearances), and already have him in HOF discussions despite a career that's barely lasted 10 years. You can't really pick Hrbek over him unless you largely shift the criteria over to team performance (at which point Carew might also be susceptible?).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Games played is relevant, because it shows how often a team had to have a backup in the lineup. Player durability has value, and Ripken obviously was the king of durability. Twins 1B in 1982 had only an .811 OPS, which closes the gap between Hrbek and Ripken quite a bit. Another way to look at it: a 4 WAR full season player who misses 20 games loses about 0.5 WAR, which is not necessarily insignificant. Also, Hrbek's advantage in SLG is largely double-counting his advantage in AVG. Ripken actually had higher isolated power. In all Hrbek had the better offensive season, but obviously he did it at 1B (and missing a few games, at that), while Ripken did it while playing above-average defense every day at 3B/SS.
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