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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a low bar! Hopefully we're not signing or promoting guys with the intent that they will be limited to back end bullpen duty due to their own lack of talent. Thrylos, I am disappointed you didn't pimp cFIP here. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17306-article-twins-pitching-woes-2013-and-2014/ 2014 Fien 89 Stauffer 91 (includes 3 poor starts) Burton 106 Swarzak 111 (includes starts) 2013 Fien 67 Burton 91 Stauffer 91 Swarzak 97 2012 Fien 83 Burton 86 Looks like they might expect Stauffer to replace Burton. (I might argue that Burton didn't particularly need external replacing with a low-upside 33 year old on a 1-year deal, but...)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That the Giants would rather have the 40-man roster spot than simply option Brown to AAA suggests something about their talent evaluation of him. His numbers the past two years are particularly bad considering he was playing in the PCL -- Fangraphs gives him wRC+ marks of 72 and 88, roughly the equivalent of the Twins' Eric Farris over the same years, despite Brown having a raw OPS about 50 points higher.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, I forgot that Eduardo Nunez actually had a minor league option remaining last year when the Yankees DFA'd him -- thus the Twins initially optioned him to AAA for a month. And actually, I am not sure if the Twins actually claimed him off waivers, or if the Yankees simply traded him to us. (Or some combination of the two, if the Yankees threatened to pull him back off waivers...)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    While players getting DFA'd frequently do not, Gary Brown indeed does have options left. In fact, I believe he has two (best as I can tell, he was added to the 40-man roster following the 2013 season). This must strictly be a move by the Giants to open up a 40-man roster spot. And all it would cost the Twins would be a 40-man roster spot (and presumably a spot in the Rochester outfield). Now, it should be noted that DFA does not mean a player is necessarily available freely yet. The Giants can trade him without placing him on waivers. I believe they can also revoke waivers on him if he is claimed, although they'd still have to trade, release, or restore him back to their 40-man roster before the 10 days are up (or waive him again, perhaps irrevocably?).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, I don't blame the Cubs for their decision, no more than I blame Bryant for not agreeing to stay with the Cubs for 7 years rather than 6 at this point, no more than I blame Boras for advising Bryant not to do that either. It's a minor violation of the spirit of the rules by the team, probably worth a grievance just for warning/negotiating purposes even if it is highly unlikely to win. As a fan, I am just disappointed that the system allows these types of flagrant transactional games. Although to be fair, perhaps this system minimizes them just about as well as any similar system could, outside of full free agency for all players at all times (which would be very interesting to see, at least in some sort of alternate universe where I could see how it affects my Twins first ).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Given that Weaver publicly made those comments, and is still represented by Boras, I suspect the service that Boras provides to players is ultimately just that: advice. Players looking for top dollar probably gravitate to Boras due to his abilities, but they don't need Boras to tell them where they are happiest or when and where their family wants to stay.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    While Bryant is not an official union member yet, the MLBPA negotiated the parameters of his selection and signing with the Cubs, as well as the rules and procedures regarding his potential promotion to MLB. And when they suspect those negotiated terms are violated or simply not followed in good faith by MLB clubs, they are going to get involved. Just like they did over the Astros Aiken/Nix draft fiasco last summer: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/report-mlbpa-files-grievance-astros-aiken-nix-marshall/ Trust me, teams would love nothing more than if the MLBPA disavowed all interest and jurisdiction over amateur and minor league ballplayers. Johan Santana may never have been a Twin, and J.R. Graham could forever be property of the Braves, if that was the case. And Olt wouldn't really lose his job -- he would almost certainly stay on the 40-man roster but be optioned to AAA as per the MLBPA's negotiated procedures. As a benefit to Olt, though, he would receive a higher than normal AAA salary, and the Cubs would be unable to freely option him to the minors again after this season. Hicks was similarly removed from the 25-man roster in favor of minor league signee Shane Robinson, all within the rules, procedures, and spirit of the agreement negotiated between the teams and the MLBPA.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Farris was an infielder until last year. And I don't know that he had much competition for this honor in the Twins system last year, particularly in CF or at AAA.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That would suggest the Twins were not operating in good faith when they let Pelfrey compete for the job this spring. Not sure that I buy that. Pelfrey may have ranked 3rd at the beginning and 3rd at the end, but I believe they view him as a starter until they say otherwise.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed that big FA spending on the bullpen isn't wise. I'm absolutely not advocating that. But at least guys like Tonkin, Achter, and Pressly are potential long-term assets. So were Roenicke and Swarzak, if one actually thought they could eventually pitch well consistently. I think the Twins were actually trying to find those guys a bit, from 2011-2014, although they weren't always picking great names. But you find a keeper in that group, and that's a huge win -- multiple seasons of cheap bullpen value, like Fien and Burton, and early Duensing. Maybe once and awhile you even find a gem and get a top set-up guy, like Guerrier. And as a bonus you can sort through some of the chaff on the 40-man roster in the process. Potential MLB relievers are probably the least likely to benefit from extended AAA time. This year's pen could be fine, although the commitment seems a bit high for the low upside in these 4 spots. If they collectively contribute a good-but-not-great season, where does that get us? It's not a huge concern, obviously, but it's one of those conservative moves that doesn't offer much potential to quicken the rebuild.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    More links, along the same vein. International amateur spending by team (doesn't include professionals from Cuba, Japan, etc.) 2010 -- Twins rank 12th: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611345.html 2011 -- Twins rank 15th: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613090.html Couldn't find data for 2012, would be interesting (every team had the same $2.9 mil pool that year) 2013 -- Twins rank 9th, but had the 4th largest pool ($400k unspent): http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2013-international-spending-by-team/ http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/international-bonus-pools-for-2013-14/ And as markos pointed out above: 2014 -- Twins rank 10th, but had the 5th largest pool ($450k unspent) And considering that teams can exceed their pools by up to 15% with only a tax and no future penalties, the Twins could have safely spent almost a full $1 mil above what they actually spent the last two signing periods, even if they didn't want to be one of those clubs that invites future penalties.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That first link includes all calendar year 2014 spending (so, the second half of the 2013-2014 signing period, and the first half of the current 2014-2015 one). I would guess that virtually all of the spending happens in the first half of the signing period, so perhaps the list is still roughly accurate, but I am not sure why BA wouldn't split these reports around July 2nd anyway.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Boras is a tough cookie and I don't particularly care for him, but I'm not sure how much of this stuff is media narrative.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Did Colin Moran take the expected Boras hard line too? He was the next college hitter chosen in that draft, and signed the same day as Bryant. Except he was represented by Casey Close. I don't think waiting a month to sign is unusual for top draft choices who aren't signing under-slot or don't have pre-draft deals in place.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Still not sure what this -- "we'll see Meyer and May within 2 months" -- is based on. If it's 2014, we didn't go to a non-rainout 7th starter until late June. (If it's based on 2012-2013, when we dipped in the starting well earlier, those were much less stable rotations than the 2014-2015 ones.) Did I miss something saying that Pelfrey is permanently a member of the bullpen now? Otherwise, isn't it pretty safe to assume he will get a chance if the need for a spot start or replacement starter arises?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If Twins Daily posters like us can figure these things out, I am pretty sure MLB front offices were fully aware of them (and their potentiality) some time ago. (As to his rushing back from TJ surgery, he had multiple ~80 ERA+ seasons for the Mets too. I think that level of performance is just part of the package with him. Hopefully he can be more consistent out of the pen.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    If that's the case, is Pelfrey an idiot? Did he not understand this was a possible outcome? Did he really think it was a competition based on spring training ERA?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    He certainly doesn't represent thousands of baseball players who are offered MLB contract extensions. Does it really matter for this point if Boras represents hundreds (I have no idea how many) of minor leaguers who will never reach the majors? Or even major leaguers like Mike Pelfrey, whose teams perhaps never sought an extension? And I am reasonably sure that list of 8 is correct. Below are my sources. You are welcome to disprove, if you like. http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/04/04/jacoby-ellsbury-on-elvis-andrus-scott-boras-and-extensions/ http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php/115970-Boras-Clients-Who-Signed-Extensions-Prior-To-FA
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no sympathy for Boras or Bryant, but "2 days before the deadline" overstates this argument. The deadline is barely a month after the draft now. He signed before the all-star break in 2013, the same day as the next college hitter chosen (#6 pick Colin Moran). It was only 3 weeks after Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins. It doesn't seem unusual. Bryant made it all the way to the AFL that fall (and dominated), and I doubt that he would have advanced any farther that year with 3 extra weeks or whatever. And I doubt his pro career start date was any consideration by the time the Cubs opted to let him finish his 2014 season on September 1st, after 2.5 months at AAA with a 1.036 OPS, rather than give him the customary call-up.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    A quick Google search returns these notable Boras clients who signed extensions, buying out at least one free agent year: Jared Weaver Carlos Gonzalez Elvis Andrus Carlos Gomez Ryan Madson Carlos Pena Derek Lowe Jason Varitek
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If age is a proxy for future value, I think it's a valid concern. We've got 4 opening day bullpen spots tied up in expiring contracts (guys with only 1 year of control, no team options, then free agency). As disappointing as our recent bullpens have been at times, we haven't had ANY such expiring contracts in our opening day bullpens since Matt Capps in 2012, and before that, Nathan in 2011. Even in 2010 we only had three (Crain/Guerrier/Rauch), and of course we were very much a contending team at that time. You'd have a hard time arguing that 2015 is somehow more of a short-term, "win now" season than 2010. Of course, I could understand if the relievers were actually providing a lot of present-day value, but that doesn't appear likely either. Here's our current group's career relief ERA- (lower is better) compared to the above names through 2010 (since Pelfrey has no prior bullpen experience, I had to use his overall ERA-): And this measure probably overrates Duensing (LOOGY) and Stauffer (low leverage) compared to the others. So, present-day performance, probably modest. Trade value, probably even more modest. Salary, non-negligible (3 of 4 making $2+ mil this year). Minor league options, none. Future control, none. Do we really need to devote 4 spots for these kind of guys, in 2015? It's a very odd time to assemble such a group.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I have said this elsewhere, but the most disappointing thing about this group isn't so much the age, as the team control / upside. Perkins is signed long term, Fien has 4 years of control left, and obviously Graham is a rookie, but the other 4 will all be gone or relatively expensive after 2015. And none of those 4 seem to offer the short-term performance boost that would make our investment in them worthwhile.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Sometimes I fear that our old conservative, build from within Twins are a little eager to project their draft picks and prospects. I suspect a motivating factor in trading Span and Revere was not only the presence of Hicks, but also the arrival of Buxton, and the promise of Buxton has caused them to keep blindly throwing Hicks or whatever scrap heap options out in CF going on 3 years. Similarly, our MLB rotation patch was light in 2013 because hey, we just acquired these two AA arms... who are still in AAA two years later. It is weird, though, because while I don't believe they promote too slow, they don't promote particularly fast for a team with that attitude either. They simply seem more than comfortable waiting for the future and spinning their wheels at multiple spots on the roster in the meantime...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really -- that's the problem. Any service time theshold you set will have teams keeping players just below it. About the only thing that would work might be to tie FA/arb to draft age instead.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No, not really. I am sure some mentioned it here, but it was pretty easily debunked. Hicks was not the level of prospect where this sort of thing ultimately matters. Meyer probably isn't anymore either. Buxton and Sano, perhaps. Although I think if a guy is forecast to be legitimately ready in spring, he should have been up to end the previous season, barring unusual circumstances. Rendering these kind of delays mostly moot (think Trout 2011-2012).
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