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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That's a good (or bad?) list, John. We blew a lead in game 1 of the August Yankees series too. The July Oakland blown save was kind of a gift lead to begin with, and Perk didn't look too bad that night, was an infield hit and a bloop, if I recall correctly. (Similarly, he blew a save in early August to Nelson Cruz and the Mariners, although we stole a win from Seattle the previous night, so it kinda balanced out.) Boyer-Fien-Pressly-Thompson combined to lose a pair of close games in innings 8-9-10 to KC in early July. The Thompson appearances in high leverage situations were particularly inexplicable at that point -- his ERA was already over 5 and he was demoted right after these games. Pressly was the first man out for the 10th inning, despite a fully rested pen, in Detroit on May 12, and quickly lost the game. Pressly had only been up for about 10 days at that point, with extreme low-leverage use so far.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    7 innings / 100 pitches isn't innings/pitch management, that's just normal usage. I'll drop it since I just noticed the title of the thread.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I know you're joking, but -- why shouldn't the catcher try to throw out a running "stealing" 2B from 3B? On first blush, it's easy to say, hey, we'd rather have the runner on 2B rather than 3B -- but it's also an opportunity to get an out and not have a runner on either 2B or 3B. A catcher throw to 2B is probably safer than to any other base too (which is a why a pitcher's pickoff throw in such a situation might be inadvisable). It might be an especially smart throw from the catcher because I've never seen a runner get a good lead trying to steal 2B from 3B.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    After he picked a fight with Bryce Harper, this is not an unrealistic proposition anymore. Rizzo may only have one season left to avoid firing himself, I am not sure he's going to prove that loyal to manager Williams or closer Papelbon (whose closer title is not contractually guaranteed either). Also, Papelbon only has a limited no-trade clause, so even with his closer demands, he can't block a deal to Bos, TB, KC, LAA, Sea, Hou, NYM, Atl, StL, Cin, Cubs, or SD. Obviously not all of those teams would be interested in him, but I could see a couple willing to take him for a year at a reduced price. I could see Papelbon waiving his no-trade rights for a couple other teams too if he is truly despised in the Nats clubhouse too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That's an argument to hold on to depth, not to do nothing (especially not to hold back potential plus players from a pennant race). In fact, the Twins did something with Tyler Duffey, limiting his pitches/innings in both of his August AAA starts, and giving him two MLB spot starts when they presented themselves (forcing the first on 3 days rest for Duffey). While it took an injury to get him up here, the Twins put him in that position and I give them some credit for that. The Twins had basically the exact same opportunity to do it with Berrios too, but chose not to. They did not limit his pitches/innings in any of his August AAA starts, and passed on an obvious opportunity to give him a MLB spot start audition on August 14 (which instead became a bullpen game, and loss with a bad bullpen, instead). Things have had a way of working themselves out in our bullpen since that point too, although not often for the better...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    They didn't give up much to get Papelbon, and if the clubhouse hates him, he might want out of Washington just as much as he wanted out of Philly. I don't think he's necessarily untradeable nor is Storen definitely out at this point. Also, even with Zimmermann and Fister likely departing, they've already got Ross and Roark who would both likely be ahead of Milone on their depth chart. Milone might be their 6th starter as much as he might be ours, and they're probably not looking to give up good value to fill that role. Even if he could make their top 5, Washington also has a recent history of aiming higher than Milone for their SP acquisitions (Gonzalez, Jackson, Haren, Fister, and Scherzer since 2012). And there are a lot of SP hitting the FA market this winter, both blockbuster aces and high-upside buy-low candidates.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It's beyond silly to restrict the possible innings limitation to June and July. By the end of July, after those first 2 AAA starts you mention, he was breezing through AAA lineups, and he was still about 57 innings under his +20% limit. As an example of a young pitcher breaking into the bigs, Duffey has thrown 51 MLB innings since the beginning of August, with one start remaining. If the Twins wanted Berrios in the MLB rotation next to Duffey this year, with another starter sliding to the pen, or a spot start evaluation of Berrios for potential pen duty himself, it was easily accomplished beginning in August. (As an aside, I also hate automatically referring to scuffles in his first start or two as "growing pains" at a new level -- that is a possibility, but remember players are people that have to pack up and move when they are promoted too. Berrios also had his Futures Game start looming at that time as well. Judging from the stats we have surrounding his two career midseason promotions, Berrios has adjusted to new levels rather quickly.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Since we're still trailing 2 teams, if we're going to do this thing, a game 163 tiebreaker seems likely. Unfortunately, there isn't a whole lot we can do to get Santana in line to start that game anymore, even on short rest. Probably should have made this a higher priority a few weeks ago when we had off days, Hughes returning, Pelfrey shifted, and Milone fading. I guess best case right now for a potential tiebreaker is starting Pelfrey, with Santana in "Game 7 Madison Bumgarner" mode, prepared to pitch extended relief on 2 days rest.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Papelbon picked a fight with Bryce Harper the other day. I'd say Storen might be less likely to get shipped off now.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, credit to the Twins for developing Duffey so far and moving him up the AAA depth chart when they did, but remember they didn't even promote him until first Milone got injured for a spot start, and then later after Hughes got injured. Some evidence suggests that moving May back to the rotation may have been their preferred plan when Hughes got hurt too, until Duffey shined in his second spot start. Ultimately, unlike with Berrios they didn't leave much excess value in AAA with Duffey, but we're kinda lucky Milone and Hughes got hurt when they did, or we may not have seen Duffey until it was too late (or wouldn't have seen him in a significant role).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, the poster said "he doesn't have much trade value", not "no trade value." It's the arbitration system. Any starter with his service time is going to cost ~$4 mil in arb, but Milone doesn't have the upside to suggest a lot of potential excess value at that price. Remember, Milone was traded straight up for Sam Fuld not long ago when he still making the minimum and hadn't yet experienced the injuries of his Twins career. The Twins could probably do better than Fuld in trade return for Milone now, but still satisfy the statement "he doesn't have much trade value."
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    In the postgame, Suzuki revealed that Buxton called the HR just before the at bat too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Last night felt like some kind of brute force attempt to finally make Perkins right. Even in his diminished state he had a role in this pen, but after his meltdowns, time off, and cortisone shots, powering through multiple innings while racking up a high pitch count so clearly was not that role. And judging by his reactions, it probably broke him for the season. Way to go, Molly!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Adding May and Jepsen, plus filling in around the edges with Cotts, wasn't too bad, but Perkins problems were apparent in July, that offset one of the additions
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Usually when I disagree with the Twins, I see the logic and reasoning behind their decision. I just can't see it with riding Perkins as long as they did last night, it made no sense from a game perspective, from a player management perspective, nothing. Anybody hear any post game comments from Molitor on it?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    You are unlikely to win only getting 2 hits, because you are unlikely to score 4 runs off 2 hits. However, once 4 runs are scored on just 1 hit, it becomes a winnable game. And when your starter holds them to 1 run over 5 in the same game, it becomes very winnable.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Carrying over my observation from the game thread: Weird time to have Perkins basically equal his season high pitch count (he threw 28 tonight, and only topped it with a 29 pitch 4 out save against St Louis back in June). What exactly was Molitor thinking? Not only does it cost us the game, it probably sets Perkins confidence level back a bit. Given that everyone pretty much agreed he wasn't 100% or ready to assume his closer duties right away, that usage felt criminal.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, Gibson is currently in line to start game 162, not the wild card game. Might still be very important for the Twins, although it could be against KC's scrubs. A potential game 163 tiebreaker would currently be Pelfrey on normal rest, and the wild card game could be either Pelfrey (assuming no tiebreaker) and/or Duffey.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer's wRC+ during his streak is now 111. Just for comparison, in 2014 between the exact same calendar dates, his wRC+ was 128 (due to a higher walk rate and BABIP), he just had the misfortune a sprinkling a couple Oh-fors in there. That was the "hot streak" (still below his pre-2014 career wRC+, though) that encouraged people about him going into 2015. His current run is definitely more of a statistical anomaly rather than a hot streak.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    50% of Perkins career innings so far came prior to 2011, when he was a starter or low-leverage reliever. A full 25% of his low-leverage PA came in 2008 alone, when he had an awful .403 wOBA in such situations. Since 2011 when he became a late-inning reliever, his low leverage wOBA has been roughly equal or lower than his medium/high leverage wOBA every year except 2013 when he crazy excelled at high leverage (.228 wOBA).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Doug Mientkiewicz was also on the comparable list.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a breakdown of his total hits + walks per game during the 42 game streak: 1: 20 (48%) 2: 17 (40%) 3: 5 (12%) Here a breakdown of his total plate appearances per game during the 42 game streak: 5: 19 (45%) 4: 22 (52%) 3: 1 (2%)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    His OBP is .371 during the streak. His OPS during the streak is about the same as Dozier's season OPS, which so far translates to a 106 OPS+. A 114 wRC+ during the streak according to Fangraphs, which is still less than his preseason overall ZiPS projection of 117.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Seth said he was "dominant" Tuesday night and that "he's fine" based on that outing. I don't know if that means 100% but it sure sounds like Seth is assuming Perk is closer to normal than would be suggested by his performance and health record since July.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Key things you left out of that stat line -- Rosario 2015 has a higher ISO (isolated power, SLG - AVG) than Santana 2014, and a much lower BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His overall results aren't as good but they look A LOT more repeatable (in other words, less flukey), well within the expected range based on his minor league numbers too. Rosario is also set in the field. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but I would be shocked if Rosario crashed next year anything close to the degree than Danny Santana has.
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