Otto von Ballpark

There are two phases of the Rule 5 draft -- the major league phase that we all hear about, and the lesser-known AAA phase. (There used to be a AA phase too, although that was "phased out" ) The AAA phase is a lot like the MLB phase -- teams can selected unprotected players from other orgs -- but players selected in the AAA phase don't have to be offered back or anything, they are pretty much just the property of the new teams. Of course, the pickings are slim in the AAA phase. Obviously anyone on a MLB 40-man roster is off limits, just like the MLB phase. But in addition to that, each minor league affiliate gets its own protected list -- 38 at AAA and I think similar numbers at each affiliate below too. Teams can only select guys who aren't on any of those lists. Given the size and number of those minor league protection lists, it's a safe assumption that anyone who has ever been on an org prospect list will be protected, and then some, although those minor league lists are generally never disclosed. The Wikipedia entry for Rule 5 draft results lists all the picks from the MLB phase, and the "notable" minor league picks each year (using a fairly generous definition of the word "notable"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results Twins fans know Brian Buscher as one. Tyler Gilbert was in the news recently after his historic first-start no-hitter.

“Experimenting” and “doing something” isn’t just cycling through different guys (although we optioned Barnes out today, so we will likely see a new face this week, probably Joe Ryan). Teams can experiment by trying different things with existing players too. And the Twins are clearly doing that with Jax right now, as evidenced by his recent velocity gains.

The first-place Twins are greeted like rock stars upon arriving home in Minnesota. Over two games that weekend in Milwaukee, Kirby Puckett compiled a league-record 10 hits, including a team-record 6 hits in Sunday's game and 4 HR total. The win Sunday gave the Twins sole possession of first place, which they would keep for the rest of the season. Watch that day's complete newscast here. Presented in partnership with TC Media Now. View full video

Duran is still on the IL at AAA, has not pitched since June. Doubtful they send out Jax, as they just sent out Barnes today with the likely replacement being Joe Ryan. Beyond Ryan, there isn’t really another “ready” SP: Balazovic is still at AA and Strotman is scuffling — 6 BB and 6 runs in 2.2 IP for St Paul today.

Charlie Barnes was just optioned this morning, so someone else will be joining the rotation this week. (Presumably Joe Ryan.)

Barnes optioned today, and Rortvedt recalled.

Game should be starting on time:

Sounds like Maeda is assuming Tommy John and missing 2022 for now.

Occam's Razor suggests we simply added the wrong Ian, and meant to add Hamilton instead of Gibaut. I think that's how Nick Vincent ended up on the roster for a few days, although I'm not sure who they thought he was -- Nick Jonas?

Not quite. There are indeed 10 extra games, for all 30 AAA teams. As described in the link I posted above, those 10 games are ostensibly part of a "tournament" but there's no seeding or anything. It's basically just 2 extra series, 10 extra games, for every team. The Saints will have 5 against Toledo, one of the best AAA teams, and 5 games vs Iowa, one of the worst. The "tournament champion" is whatever team has the best record over those 10 games, with regular-season record as the inevitable tiebreaker. I think it will be difficult, structurally, to get too excited about it.

AAA was originally scheduled through Sep. 19/21, but they added 10 games last month in lieu of playoffs: https://ballparkdigest.com/2021/07/14/milb-turns-triple-a-extended-season-to-tourney-kinda/

Note that after Ryan made his Saints debut, his 2nd start came on normal rest. Doesn't look like they're trying to get him extra rest between starts at the moment, like they've been doing at the MLB level. So that means Ryan could slot in Monday in Detroit on normal rest, thus giving Ober an extra day of rest by pushing him to Tuesday. (I noted elsewhere that Ryan and the Saints are in Toledo through Sunday, so it would be very easy for Ryan to meet up with the Twins in Detroit for Monday.)

Although once you get past 28, how much are those guys even going to play? The minor league season is active until October this year too, so teams could easily send out anyone with options for 10 days if they're not starting anyway -- i.e. Astudillo, or Gordon when he's usually been on the bench, or Cave when Buxton comes back, etc.

They don't really need to use Barnes tonight. Gant threw 60 pitches last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if they let him go more (he was a full start through mid-June this season). Garcia, Barraclough, and Minaya should be good to go, and Coulombe and Colomé should be fine too. With a 3-batter minimum and the runner in extra innings, they shouldn't need more than 6 pitchers. But if they wanted, it's not like Garza, Duffey, or Thielbar would necessarily be off-limits for a short appearance either. Now, those pitchers may stay in a little longer than their effectiveness warrants, and we may eschew playing matchups etc., but that's all part of playing out string. From today's game recap: Bullpen Usage Chart THURS FRI SAT TUE WED TOT Barnes 0 109 0 0 0 109 Minaya 0 16 0 30 0 46 Albers 63 0 0 0 0 63 García 0 0 28 0 0 28 Gant 61 0 0 0 0 61 Garza Jr. 0 0 31 0 24 55 Barraclough 0 46 0 0 4 50 Duffey 0 0 0 19 9 33 Colomé 0 0 0 0 20 0 Coulombe 19 0 0 0 19 19 Thielbar 0 0 0 14 22 23

Interesting. Was that when Gilmartin was first assigned to the FCL Twins this summer? That's the only time when he was healthy and not pitching. But there are no roster size limits in the US rookie leagues, except "No more than 3 players with 4 or more years of minor-league experience" (Gilmartin would have been one of those, not sure about the rest of the roster). FWIW, "Development List" doesn't appear in Gilmartin's transaction log:

On the other hand, rebuilding teams don't need to wait to try out young players in September either -- they can do it all season. And even at 28, there should be more than enough spots to work with in September too. Look at the Twins this year -- if any young players have been, or will be, held back due to MLB roster size considerations, I'd chalk it up to irrationality on the Twins part. The opportunities are there.

The problem is, it's all relievers anyway. So 30 wouldn't be much better than the full 40 -- it's still 4 extra relievers, and with options it's probably more like 6+ relievers cycling through the 4 extra spots. I think there were proposed limits on the number of pitchers but those have been waived the past two seasons. If those come back, maybe you could let the rosters expand to 30 or more again -- just limit the pitching staff to, say, 14.

I saw that too, but I'm not sure if I actually learned it.

I think everyone could agree on this -- except MLB players and owners, of course.

Just to clarify, what difference is more than 50%? $23.3 mil (10th pick) to $31.9 mil (5th pick) is 37%, no? Just want to be on the same terms here. Also, clarifying, we're not talking about the difference between a 2 WAR player and 3 WAR player -- that's a single-season 1 WAR difference that will grow over time. We're talking about a total difference of 1 WAR. It's more like a 3 WAR career vs a 2 WAR career, or a team signing 10 future WAR vs 9 future WAR in an offseason -- spread over multiple seasons, that difference isn't particularly large.

That Fangraphs link is a nice reference, thanks for sharing. I don't think anyone was arguing that earlier isn't more valuable, in absolute terms, or that draft position doesn't matter. The question seemed to be how much fans should care about the relative difference? I think the difference is slight enough that fans can justify it either way depending on subjective preferences. The estimated value difference between picking 5th and 10th from your link is $8.6 mil (and that steadily decreases from there -- 7 to 12 is $6.3 mil, etc.). At the MLB level, that's a one-time difference of ~1 WAR on the FA market. Or, we can compare it to the Fangraphs prospect valuations at the following link: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ A generic 50 FV prospect alone is estimated to be worth $21 mil (pitcher) to $28 mil (position player). So in draft pick terms, moving up from 10 to 5 is like a fractional generic prospect upgrade? In top 100 terms, swapping 10 for 5 is maybe #75 to #45? Absent any further context, those are not differences that fans should necessarily care about either.

I've never been to Fenway, but I assume this plays on the jumbotron every game as the Red Sox take the field:

Wasn't that a racy crime drama on USA Network in the 1990s?

Well, we have no choice but to find out now. Teams make judgements on 5-10 MLB starts or less all the time, but that's no longer an option for the 2021 Twins.