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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Fields just got released, per MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/dodgers-claim-donnie-hart-waivers-orioles-dfa-josh-fields.html So he's available without a waiver claim or trade necessary.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Discussion of the tax article here suggests there is also a 4% *city* income tax in Philadelphia, which would close the gap further: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/la_times_bryce_harper_will_save_tens_of_millions_in_taxes_by_spurning_dodge/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Ding ding ding! "Royals Reach Agreement With Martin Maldonado On One-Year Deal" https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/royals-reach-agreement-with-martin-maldonado-on-one-year-deal.html Although if this was "The Price is Right", you would have gone over, unfortunately ($2.5 mil guarantee, $1.4 mil incentives).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    There are 30 teams, 15 with the DH. I don't think you can count on getting a dangerous bat every offseason on a one-year commitment. Some years you'll get Nelson Cruz, some years Logan Morrison, some years not even that.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't the Twins sign Marwin at basically the same point they signed Morrison last year? I think both chemistry and ST are more convenient excuses than they are vital concerns. (Not that you shouldn't aim for good chemistry and ST readiness too, but ultimately I think these moves can be fairly judged based on talent/evaluation.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't these two statements contradict each other somewhat? Lance Lynn turned out to be a pretty marginal pitcher/signing last year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That money is pocket change to the Twins. I think service time while on the MLB DL is a potentially bigger concern -- a pitching prospect on the 40-man who hurts his elbow in big league camp could get a year of service time just for surgery and rehab. Although even that's probably not a big deal for Stewart/Vasquez level prospects. Probably just clearing opportunities for those more likely to make the team. (And it appears they want Stewart to start in AAA rather than compete for the MLB pen right now.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey -- name calling has no place here!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    A player has to spend 20 MLB regular season days on optional assignment in order to burn an option year. So yes, this could effectively be "undone" anytime between now and April 15th or so. Stewart and Vasquez each have all 3 of their option years remaining at this point, though, so I don't think it's much of a concern.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope you mean more funny articles, and not more articles with "injury" in the title!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Do Stewart and Vasquez both have "no real chance" of making the team? I wouldn't say either is likely, but both finished 2018 in MLB. They're also both marginal enough prospects at this point that I don't think the Twins would particularly care if they each collected some service time on the MLB DL. Edit to add: given our roster, Vasquez is pretty unlikely to make it this spring. But the pen is a little more open from the right side, and if one believed the Stewart hype around here lately, one would probably want him to be in the mix for a spot...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, they're aware of it. They almost certainly use it in negotiations too, like I said. But I doubt that "maximum net" is the most important thing to these guys, at this level. Maybe for guys on smaller contracts where the money has more utility, but for a guy like Harper and anyone on $100+ mil deals, they've got money to burn regardless of what state tax they pay. I'm guessing they ultimately prefer the prestige of getting a higher reported value (which the agents and union prefer too), playing with a contender, etc. I haven't seen much evidence of a player ever taking less total money (edit: gross salary) on a big contract to play in a lower tax state (at least, where there weren't other compelling reasons for them to do so). That suggests it's less of a factor than articles like these might imply -- that's all I'm saying.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect they've got some deductions and such. The agent's fee, for starters.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand that. But like I said, I don't think taxes are as big of a factor as that article implies. Harper/Boras wanted the record contract (and probably just the highest total dollar value they could get), more than they wanted the highest after-tax income. That they only got the highest/record offer from a lower-tax state was probably coincidental.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the tip. Here's the link, for those interested: https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-skelton-income-tax-20190307-story.html Since taxes are based on where each game is played (home/road), the overall effect is less than 10% of the contract. (Even Boras suggests it's only 7% or less here.) And that's assuming the player never gets traded, and doesn't have any creative methods of lowering his tax burden. For these big contracts, I don't think <10% is that significant, and is almost certainly overshadowed by other factors. Heck, the agent's commission alone is likely the same as this tax difference -- but players generally aren't negotiating for themselves or bargain shopping for new agents. Has there ever been a credible report that a player turned down a higher offer due to taxes? I know sometimes they prefer AAV to total value, or going to a contender, or getting an opt-out or NTC, etc. That doesn't mean Boras and others won't attempt to use it in negotiations, of course, but if it's really important as they suggest, I'd expect to see it in some real-world examples. If the offers were flipped here, and the California team offered a record 13/330 and the Phillies only offered 12/312, I'm pretty sure Harper/Boras takes the California offer, every time, taxes be damned.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Warning: the gods won't necessarily hold up their end of the deal either. Like when we traded Aaron Hicks to the devil, and he promised an MLB catcher in return...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The gods demand more than a 40-man roster spot!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If Astudillo gets hurt, I don't think the fans here could take it, so don't tell us. Just tell us that he's much happier now playing at a farm with other tortugas.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Thome was under the Bill Smith regime...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You can't make a QO to a player you had for less than a full season. Hence why the Dodgers couldn't extend a QO to Machado this winter.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    No. The $50 mil threshold only applies to what level of comp pick his old team receives. The signing team gives up the same pick regardless.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it just me, or does it seem like these conclusions might be stretching the limits of basic polling? From the methodology: https://blog.predictwise.com/2019/03/the-atlantics-the-geography-of-partisan-prejudice-method-addendum/ Then they got demographics from each of those 2000 respondents, correlated their responses to those demographics, and projected their results onto every county based on how their demographics matched. I have no doubt they are using nice advanced statistical methods to do this... but with that sample, and those vague questions, I'm really not sure it matters to the validity of their conclusions. How does one define Democrat and Republican? Local cultural effects would be almost completely ignored too.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I think what you are claiming is more or less "garbage in, garbage out" which I addressed in my post. I'm not sure how you think defensive metrics are calculated, but the foundation of them is stringers recording what actually happened. Is there some subjectivity involved? Sure -- I remember one issue was classifying fly balls vs liners (Statcast can help with that now). But that doesn't mean the data is worthless. There's subjectivity in scouting too but that data isn't worthless, and can gain some reliability if you get a large enough sample.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I usually tune in for the hair, and sometimes stay for the hockey.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Newe Ulme?
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