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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB teams have already signed way more than 50 guys, though, including plenty of guys who didn't crack that top 50. Obviously talent evaluation is especially subjective in this market, so there could still be some talent in that group. Far more interesting to me than top 50 lists or unsigned lists would be some historical data on international signings -- how many guys signed, and when, and for how much. Then we could at least peg some likelihood on notable signings coming in the last few months of the period. But alas, no one seems to offer this data publicly either. On BA's #34 guy, he's still unsigned for a reason: "Since the commissioner’s office has banned MLB teams from signing players with Mexican League clubs, catcher Fernando Villalobos (No. 34) won’t be able to sign until MLB ends its ban."
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I wasn't expecting Kubel to come up in this discussion. I always got the impression that the injury delayed his development a year or two, but ultimately didn't really curtail his MLB performance level. Something about his swing seemed pretty exploitable by MLB pitchers, even before the injury. I don't think he had that much speed or defense before the injury either -- he was a right fielder through his entire minor league career, and never was a threat on the bases except for that partial season at Rochester.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Good defensive CF? I think you will find that is a pretty good projection for those. Lorenzo Cain has almost the exact same OPS projection, and he got 5/80 from the small market Brewers last winter, and is 3 years older than Hicks. (Hicks's OPS has been better than Cain's the last 2 years too, if one believes he's made a permanent step forward after 2016.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That's why Nixon went with "the silent majority."
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You know Oakland swept us in the 2006 ALDS, right? Johan lost game 1, then our bullpen gave up 3 runs and our offense only scored 2 in game 2 -- not sure how much help Liriano could have provided there. Then we scored 3 runs (in garbage time) in game 3. 7 runs total for 3 games. I'm not sure that losing Liriano was the key factor preventing us from going all the way that year.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    "BREAKING: Twins Daily Changes Breaking News Policy"
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is definitely happening, to some extent. While I pick on Cleveland for not signing Bradley and leaving a hole (or two, or three) in their outfield, they might view that as a "win the division -- and nothing more" type move. With relatively limited resources, they may figure they need to conserve them to better deploy midseason (i.e. Miller, Hand, etc.). To some degree, the Twins could be doing that too if we leave some payroll room -- but of course, we're doing it to chase Cleveland right now rather than Boston, NY, and Houston.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are suggesting that the Twins sold Granite for cash, I don't think much actual cash changed hands here. At most, it seems the Rangers sent us the waiver fee as a courtesy? If the Twins spend any of the bonus pool allowance we got from Baltimore, the Twins will probably lose money on this transaction.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone has lists of unsigned IFA, aside from maybe a "top 30" each July (that's highly informed by the deals teams are arranging). There's no public information for anyone to create such a list, unlike draft prospects.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland finished 2018 with 91 wins, such that a 2019 projection of 94 looks like "upping their game" -- but Cleveland under-performed its projection with those 91 wins in 2018, and under-performed most win estimators too (Pythag and BaseRuns). A 94 win projection for 2019 isn't "upping their game", it's basically holding steady. Their offseason moves pretty much look like "holding steady" too, aside from maybe Brantley. Likewise, I certainly agree that the Twins should finish better than 78 wins, and the White Sox better than 62 wins -- but both were projected to be better than that in 2018 too. Their 2019 projections are more or less holding steady from the preseason 2018 projections just like Cleveland, which suggests they're about the same level of threat now that they were a year ago (i.e. not much).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    But Cleveland hasn't really shipped off any good assets. There was talk they might do that, with Kluber and other pitchers, but they haven't. They've exchanged a few more modest assets -- they dealt Encarnacion, but they brought back Santana and acquired Bauers. They dealt Gomes, but brought in Plawecki. On the FA side, they let Miller and Allen leave, but they already added Hand midseason last year. I've granted that not re-signing Brantley might be a bad move, but it's not really a sign of a window closing. They may not have liked him, at that age, at that price -- and they've certainly shown a willingness to add aggressively during the season, if a need arises (or persists). The core is still pretty young too -- Lindor and Ramirez at 25 and 26, chiefly, but also Clevinger and Bauer are only 28 this year. Hand 29. Bieber 24. Kluber and Carrasco aren't graybeards either. The guys they shipped out or let go this winter were all going to be 30 or older.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, although I don't if it will come down to 5 or so Graterol types, at least for this period (until July 2nd). But even if it's just one guy at $150k, that's $150k more they have free for the upcoming 2019-2020 period. I suppose there could be some 15 year olds, who turn 16 before July 2nd, who might be willing to sign early for $800k or less, and that would save money for the 2019-2020 period too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure of your data source, but the MLBTR Free Agent tracker and B-Ref disagree: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0__positions-rp From the top 15 RP names in that list (so, not counting SP Mike Minor), there are 5 guys who recorded more than 1 WAR at B-Ref: Morrow, Hunter, Cishek, Petit, and Davis. (Edit to add: I sorted by AAV, but sorting by total amount yields the same 5 names in the top 15.) Davis was the only one of those 5 below 1.4 WAR. Cishek even had 2.3. (Neshek among the top 15 also posted 0.8 WAR in just half a season of work.) Just beyond the top 15, the 16th guy in that list (Rodney) posted 1.0 WAR, and the 17th guy posted 0.9 WAR too, and they only earned ~$4.5 mil each. They may not strictly meet your "more than 1 WAR" criteria, but those are still good deals. It wasn't a good year for a few higher-profile FA relievers, but good teams can still find benefits in this general group. The Cubs, Phillies, A's, and even Astros all did pretty well with FA relievers. The Rockies? Not so much.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure $80-100 mil is "top tier starting pitcher money" anymore (depends on your definitions) but I agree it's steep for a relievers, especially in the current market climate.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Alcala signed with the Astros at age 19 -- but it was only for a $10k bonus, which doesn't count against a team's international bonus pool. https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotatwins/comments/92iwzw/rosenthal_rhp_jorge_alcala_and_celestino_and_cf/e362fck
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    At this late point in the signing period, I'm not sure if there's even many of the usual 50k to 100k guys left. My completely uninformed guess would be that it could come in useful if, as we're scouting prospects this spring to sign in July, we find anyone intriguing that may have gotten overlooked last year. Maybe a guy after a growth spurt, or maybe a shortstop hopeful who looks stronger on the mound, etc. Then we could offer them 2018-2019 cash and conserve our 2019-2020 allotment. I'm not sure how much that flexibility is worth, but possibly more than Granite to us, given our current outfield and roster. Possibly more than Xavier Moore to us too, judging by his limited record.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Y'all know there's a thread about the Granite deal, right?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Padres and Red Sox were each able to trade for Kimbrel, in his prime, for ultimately a pretty a modest cost. Is there any reliever out there available in trade? Unfortunately the Mariners tied Edwin Diaz to Robinson Cano this winter...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm torn. Even though I advocate for some aggressive spending, even I don't like investing that much in relief pitchers -- but Kimbrel's been pretty darn good. On the other hand, he's already 30, and was shaky in the postseason last year. Edit to add: and if we were willing to spend at all on relievers, there were probably several better buys available earlier in the offseason...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, you could have made a similar argument last spring. Remember both Dozier and Morrison were coming off 30+ HR seasons, and Rosario/Kepler were pretty much at their current power levels too. I do like Nelson Cruz, but I'm not sure this year's lineup will translate into meaningfully less pressure on Sano. (If there's any less pressure on Sano, it would probably be due his 2018 performance lowering expectations.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that I did not mention Kipnis or Santana in my post. They're not really vital parts of this Cleveland club anymore -- although their expiring contracts after 2019 and 2020, respectively, should allow the team to pay Lindor's arbitration raises if it desires.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland had a 98 win season by Pythag, and 94 by BaseRuns. I'd guess their bullpen dragged them down a bit -- Miller and Allen were not their usual selves last year. I'm not sure it suggests any problem with their mentality -- they've snagged Hand and Miller in midseason deals over the last 3 years, plus a few other pieces. So they've got some aggressiveness.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would you say their window is closing? They still have Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Carrasco, Clevinger, and Hand all controlled for the next 3-5 years. Bauer for the next 2. Bieber for the next 6. Also, I'm not sure the division got better. Weren't the Twins projected around 82-83 wins last spring too? Without Machado, I don't think the White Sox moved the needle much either (and the needle was low enough to begin with, I'm not sure it matters). If I were a Cleveland fan, I too would have wished they dug into their pockets to sign an outfielder this past offseason. But I wouldn't say that's because of any window closing.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder how much this kind of thing happens to a lot of players, though -- and it only comes to light after they struggle. From Dozier's performance record in particular, it's not like an extended slump could only be caused by a severe injury, especially in his age 31 season. Of course, that doesn't mean he's finished at age 32 either. I like the signing for the Nationals. I wonder if the Brewers should have done it, instead of moving Moustakas to 2B?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, the Indians "selling" or "tanking" is overblown. The 1B/DH moves this offseason in particular don't seem problematic. I will say, though, that they've left themselves a little vulnerable at catcher. With their emphasis on pitching, though, I could give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing there. Their bullpen looks bad, but they wouldn't be the first team to eschew major offseason bullpen signings. Their projected outfield is pretty bad, though, potentially at all 3 spots. Not sure how to explain that one. It really seems like they could have used Brantley back.
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