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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Now, I'm sure Gonsalves personally thinks it had a big effect on his draft position, because high-level athletes are conditioned to believe that they would have proven themselves, erased all doubts, etc., with just X more opportunities (in this case, Gonsalves' ~3 missed starts). But in reality, evidence suggests the suspension had little effect.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, the reasoning isn't that cloudy if you read the reporting on the issue. It was a violation of strict team rules, not an eligibility issue. He did miss about a month, but high school schedules are pretty sparse. He probably only missed ~3 starts in that time. MLB scouts are looking for every edge they can find in the draft, it's highly unlikely that they dropped Gonsalves as much as was suggested in the article (from a #27 preseason ranking to #110 selection) based primarily on this odd incident. Preseason, BA actually had Gonsalves ranked #17, and Stewart #18. Guys rise and fall. Prospect lists differ. By the time this comparison of top 30 draft prospects was compiled in March, well before Gonsalves' suspension, he was already not mentioned: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2013-mlb-draft/2013/3/18/4119330/2013-mlb-draft-top-prospects-rankings-espn-mark-appel-clint-frazier-astros If someone here has a Baseball America subscription, it would be interesting to see if and where they ranked him on this list from April 4, 2013, just before Gonsalves suspension: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/midseason-update-2013-mlb-draft-top-50/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, 16 of Jay's 28 relief appearances for Illinois last year fell short of 2 innings. He did average almost 2 innings per relief appearance (55.1 relief), although that was largely impacted by a single 6 inning relief appearance in extra innings versus conference bottom dweller Penn State. And a 2 inning appearance still means only 1 time through the batting order. Still, his college usage was definitely more liberal than a guy like Nick Burdi's. Fairly close to Tyler Duffey's, which might bode well for his starter conversion, although there are still questions about Duffey's effectiveness the second time through the order as a pro too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It would be unusual for a coach to publicly criticize the ability of one of his players, regardless of what the coach honestly thought. (Thinking of the Twins moving Sano to RF right now...) And I'm not sure keeping Jay in the pen was a good decision for Illinois at all. They had a good season historically, but it quite likely could have ended better for them. They were ranked as high as #2 in the nation, and no lower than #5, in all the major polls entering the NCAA tournament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NCAA_Division_I_baseball_rankings Yet they were swept out of the double-elimination super regional (NCAA final 16), despite home field advantage. Every poll had them ranked ahead of their super regional opponent (although to be fair, that opponent was the preseason #1 Vanderbilt). They also failed to advance any further in the Big Ten tournament than they did in 2014. I previously broke down their tournament usage of Jay here, and it looks like Jay barely mattered (in fact, they turned to a well-rested Jay as a desperation starter facing elimination after their "trusted" starting pitchers put their backs against the wall): http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/?p=351940 On last year's midseason top prospects article, I offered this opinion on Jay's college usage: "Personally, I think the team and player got comfortable with the situation early in his college career, and the team didn't really have time to try to develop him as a starter (imagine if the Twins were guaranteed to lose him to another league in another year or two, they probably don't mess with his role either)." In short, it's hard to conclude much about his college stats or usage right now. Will be very interesting to watch him develop this year and going forward.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, you're the one who brought it up to lead off your article. I don't care one bit about the suspension now, but if you really want to drop the topic, I suggest not using it to drive the Gonsalves narrative anymore either.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Is that really what dropped him in the draft, though? It wasn't just Gonsalves who got suspended, it was at least 5 guys. http://www.baseballamerica.com/high-school/suspensions-waylay-cathedral-catholic/ And even the San Diego newspaper at the time reported it was a team rules violation, not an eligibility issue, and it was largely due to the school's own self-imposed zero tolerance policy, meaning the players would have faced only 1 game suspensions at many other schools: http://hs.utpreps.com/news_article/show/249040 I have a hard time believing that MLB scouts were terribly swayed by the incident by draft time in June. Looks like Gonsalves had a drop in K rate and an uptick in BB rate his senior year too. I'd guess that and further scouting observation is what caused his draft stock to drop a bit, it's not exactly unheard of. Amateur scouting is more art than science. http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/stephen-gonsalves/V10dvPTpEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htm Even BA had Gonsalves (#106) ahead of Stuart Turner (#109) in their May 17 ranking of 2013 draft prospects, yet the Twins chose Turner instead of Gonsalves at #78 overall. If it was just the suspension driving Gonsalves's fall, wouldn't the Twins have been thrilled to land him at #78 instead? http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2013-top-250-draft-prospects-may-17-jonathan-gray-takes-top-spot/
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, a counting stat isn't the ideal comparison. Garza could have been shut down earlier last year if the Brewers were playing meaningful games.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure is a big difference in this regard. I was poking through MLBTR archives recently, we obviously had tons of rumors about signing Hunter and Buehrle. And of course tons of rumors before many of our mid season trades. I think our perception is colored because we don't participate in that many trades, we often try to sign our big FA early in the off season, and when we do pursue trades, they are for less interesting guys (my MLBTR archive search also revealed zero rumors about Jepsen, involving any team, from 2015 prior to our trade for him). So if there were a better 3B market this year, I wouldn't be really comfortable crediting the Twins tight-lipped nature if we didn't hear any activity around him. Of course, it is a moot point since the 3B market was terrible.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, there were a lot of rumors about a Span trade from midseason 2012. But I agree there wasn't a market for Plouffe this winter, I am not concerned if they didn't shop him.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    True, a statistical comp to Morris would be difficult. And a contract comp might be difficult too, as now obviously guys are scoring 6-7 year deals. It was basically a one year, aggressive make-good type of deal for a former superstar, with little downside risk (two player options at lower salary, for a workhorse starter). You can probably find a few moves that fit that profile in the last 15 years, but sadly the Twins haven't made them.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, not sure about that. The 2000s teams got a 2-3 time Cy Young winner in the Rule 5 draft, almost hit on another one as a lotto ticket in Liriano. We had two future MVPs come up at exactly the same time (Mauer and Morneau). We got thoroughly fantastic returns on trading Knoblauch, AJ, and Milton, got surprisingly good seasons out of guys like Lew Ford, Boof Bonser, etc. Joe Mays' peak. The last hurrahs from Shannon Stewart and Jim Thome. Obviously a lot of that we credit to good scouting and development, but the extent of those successes, and the timing, often involved a good deal of luck, the same "luck" that formed the core of the 1987 and 1991 teams (Puckett, Hrbek, Viola and his trade, Shane Mack, etc.). The 2000s teams didn't get lucky on the FA front like the 1991 team, but again, they didn't often try. Kenny Rogers was acquired under very different circumstances than Jack Morris (Rogers was actually paid less in 2003 than Morris in 1991, if you can believe that.) Or even Bert Blyleven on the 1987 team. Rondell White in 2006 made little more than Chili Davis in 1991, and rather than get replaced after a historically awful first half in 2006, we actually re-signed White for the same amount for 2007! (And let Jason Tyner start a pair of postseason games at DH...) We had Mauer, Morneau, and Santana together at their peak from 2006-2008 and did very little with it. We had Santana with Hunter, Radke, Koskie etc. for some years prior to that too, and at least a little bit of Mauer, Morneau, a reborn Lirano for one year, etc. after that, and did very little with those years too. But we never made a trade like Blyleven or Smiley, and never paid a FA like Morris or Davis. Hard to blame the lack of attempts on luck.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the 1991 team didn't have to make a deadline deal. Had Chili Davis performed like Rondell White 2006, or Jack Morris like Kenny Rogers 2003, or Kirby Puckett gotten injured like Justin Morneau 2010, or Scott Erickson blown out his elbow like Liriano 2006, perhaps they would have? Unrelated, but I just noticed the 1988 team broke camp with two 43 year olds, Joe Niekro and Steve Carlton, only to release both within a month. Maybe that was MacPhail's "Bartlett and Kubel circa 2014" moment?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Quite possibly, but we were outbidding other teams for Morris, it wasn't like we were alone in our valuation of him. And it was actually a creative deal, ahead of its time. $3 mil for 1 year, plus two 1 year $2 mil player options. Got him on a discount with less future risk than Detroit's offer, or Toronto's eventual deal for him. Would be interesting to come up with a modern comp for that player and deal. Not sure it is Hunter, and I'm not sure TR would have been pilloried too much over it..
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Certainly there was luck on Morris' side in 1991, but that was an aggressive expensive deal. Rogers was an uber cheap leftover at the end of spring training. And Morris was only one of three aggressive, expensive top SP adds during the MacPhail era (with Blyleven and Smiley). Kind of dwarfing Rogers and Reed from the TR era. Making their own luck?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt the 1991, the team got lucky, WS winners generally do, but they were fairly aggressive at patching holes and adding depth going into that season. And I have a feeling they might have sought significant improvements mid season had it been necessary, kind of like they did the following winter, dealing for Smiley when Morris left. The 2006 club, not so much. They got lucky too, with Liriano pitching like Cy Young and Mauer and Morneau becoming sudden MVP candidates. Of course, they handicapped themselves early by starting Castro, and then by mid season it was abundantly clear we were contenders but our SP depth was non existent, and our DH pick up was dreadful. No adjustments made, however. 2010 had plenty of good luck too. Morneau played out of his mind, and Liriano re-emerged. Sadly, though, again no major moves made mid season after Morneau went down (except Capps, trading our only viable MLB catcher behind Mauer, setting up 2011...). In fact, we seemingly did very little to expect a different playoff fate than we had met the previous 5 trips. I have a feeling the MacPhail might have sealed the deal on a Cliff Lee trade sometime in 2009 or 2010, done something to address the Morneau situation, and finally have given us a puncher's chance vs NY. I have no real idea what this discussion is about, but that's my post, and I am sticking to it.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Holy cow, I had no idea it was that severe. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=e932452e That might also have something to do with Stewart's ground ball rate -- I doubt many guys are swinging for the fences under those conditions. And of course, Stewart's total run prevention (including unearned runs, which are especially questionable at lower levels) was notably worse than team/league average in 2015. It wasn't a disastrous season by any means, but it wasn't a particularly good one either in any respect, even accounting for Stewart's age. Barring a dramatic spring turnaround, he almost certainly should start again at the level in 2016.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't if "abysmal" is quite right. Last place in 1990, but we won 74 games. Tapani, Guthrie, and Erickson all pitched less than full seasons in 1990 but were really solid when they took the hill. Similar for Shane Mack on the offensive side, a Rule 5 bench player to open 1990 but a plus starter by the end. We were also expected to address the sink hole at 2B with 100 prospect Knoblauch. Not to mention holdover standout performers Puckett, Hrbek, Harper, and Aguilera. (Plus Junior Ortiz and his .335 batting average ) There was a solid basis for optimism that year, or they wouldn't have been so aggressive in free agency.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the beauty of the internet -- nobody wins. Thanks for doing your best to help Twins baseball from the inside. I have a blast talking about the team, even when I'm complaining. Oh, and thanks for chiming in here, of course. It's fun.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the great response of markos, I dug up some of my research on Stewart's background too: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21338-keith-law-ranks-twins-minor-league-system-3-seven-in-top-100/?p=439647
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the response, Mr. Goin. Bill Smith had 20 years in baseball ops too when he took over as GM, and 24 years experience when he was subsequently removed from that role. In 2010, 15 years into Rob Antony's Twins baseball ops tenure (having become Director of Baseball Operations in 1995, before replacing Smith as assistant GM in 2007), when asked if he "were going to sign a free agent, would he go after the guy with a higher RBI total or slugging percentage, Antony replied that he would prefer the player with the higher RBI total." http://www.startribune.com/where-traditional-scouting-and-statistical-analysis-intersect/88615982/ Then in 2014, Antony was the acting GM during the Bartlett and Kubel reunion, featuring Dave St Peter's infamous tweet of amazement "at focus on 25th man on the roster", followed 3 weeks later by the sudden retirement of the club's interesting choice for said 25th man. I am sure they are great people and hard workers who have done a lot of great things for Twins baseball behind the scenes, but you have to forgive me if I am skeptical about their ability to head the baseball side of the organization (again) in a post-TR world.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    When you first said "total bust" I thought that seemed strong, I always associate that with guys like BJ Garbe who pretty much flame out immediately and you wonder, how the heck did we pick him? Stewart has done enough in his first couple years that I think he is out of that territory. Still could wind up a bust as far as MLB contributions, which probably isn't that rare even among picks in that #4 range. Agree that this year will be very important.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If it was just injury with Nolasco, I would be more understanding. But it feels like more than that. And he seems very un-Twins like in personality, which suggests the Twins indeed targeted him more out of desperation than aggressiveness, which is a bad way to operate in FA. I get the impression they had the same basic offer out to multiple FA starters that winter, namely Nolasco, Santana, and Garza. Nolasco was the first to sign, then the other offers came off the table (only to return later, modified/reduced). Just knowing his history and upside, I probably would have put a lower offer out to Nolasco, closer to the Jason Vargas deal (4/32), and pushed harder to land Santana. Better to get the guy you really want for a little more than you want to pay, than to get a guy you don't necessarily want for exactly what you are willing to pay.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    And the fact that they've never had a "baseball guy" in the #2 GM spot under TR is pretty good evidence of the other claims made here. Heck, TR already retired once, saw the organization get messed up a bit with a non-baseball guy in command, came back with an interim tag, and later stepped aside briefly due to health reasons -- and we STILL haven't got a "baseball guy" in the #2 spot!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That same FA SP class featured Ervin Santana. I remember his original demands were high, but I wonder if we made an early offer to him, and what it was. By March, we had a rumored 3/33 offer to him before he took the one-year deal with the Braves -- maybe if we had been more aggressive on him earlier, we could have signed him to, say, a 4/65 deal and not bothered with Nolasco? The increased cost would have been offset by getting Santana's age 31 season instead of the age 35 season we eventually guaranteed him. And don't confuse the original Hughes contract with the extension. The original Hughes deal was fantastic.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought of that one too, but ultimately it was a swap of role players that came immediately after the postseason ended. Was there any advance buzz for the Yankees trade of Jose Pirela to the Padres that same day? I'll take TR at his word that he didn't make Plouffe available, and give him credit for understanding there just wasn't a market for him.
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