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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    By the way, the post title should probably be changed to "2019".
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    We'd have to drop someone else from the 40 man just to try.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really 3 prospects, though. It's one guy who was just outrighted (cleared waivers) and another who was just DFA'd. The third guy is actually a prospect, but a fairly marginal one -- ranked #18 for the Giants. Still debatable whether the Giants should be trading for a guy like Pillar, I suppose, but the cost wasn't bad. And Pillar has been pretty solid the last 4 years -- at least 140 games and 2.5 bWAR each year. And the Giants now have him for the next 2 years, and could flip him if they fall out of the race as expected. (They actually got that #18 prospect from flipping McCutchen last August. Turning McCutchen into Pillar isn't bad.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    You should have tweeted this to Mitch!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Ex-Twin Michael Reed has been DFA'd by the Giants, to make room for Kevin Pillar (just acquired in trade from Toronto). Reed was 0-for-8 with 6 K's so far with the Giants this season, so he might stand a good chance of clearing waivers...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Does a guy who hits 50 HR one season, and only 40 HR the next, need an "excuse" to explain the drop? Does it necessarily mean he had less talent in power hitting the second season? I subjectively agree the 2018 Indians weren't as good as the 2017 team, but I don't think "minus 11 wins" is necessarily an accurate measure of that drop. Has any MLB owner ever publicly stated how much money they made from their team? Yes, it's pretty standard for MLB owners to say they're losing money, or at best, breaking even. That's not to say Cleveland is going to go on a spending spree now -- but I'm guessing they are fairly comfortable staying at their current level, and wouldn't need a whole lot of incentive to push up to 2017-2018 levels again. The owner crying poor certainly doesn't convince me otherwise.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Red Sox are already $30 mil above the threshold, or in other words, $47 mil ahead of Houston. The Cubs are $16 mil above the threshold too, $33 mil ahead of Houston. Houston's only in 7th place in luxury tax payroll, and there's a big gap between 3rd and 4th place. Also note the Astros payroll already has a bunch of relievers earning $4-8 mil on short term contracts in addition to Pressly -- if any of them were extended or replaced at those prices, it wouldn't actually increase their luxury tax liabilities above 2019 levels either. The Astros aren't even close to a spot where a contract like Pressly's would have serious luxury tax implications. Obviously Falvey is going to say it was too good to pass up, because he didn't pass it up. What else is he supposed to say? It may even have been a solid prospect return for a 2019 asset, but it's still costing the Twins in 2019. Think about it this way: if the Twins could flip those two prospects today for a dominant reliever making under $3 mil in 2019, you'd also have to consider that pretty strongly, no? We could use that player right now, and if things go south, we could still flip him at the 2019 deadline (assuming we didn't extend him affordably ourselves). I think that illustrates the cost of this deal to the Twins pretty well. And unlike the other prospects we acquired at the 2018 deadline, those two Houston prospects will have to make up this 2019 cost for this deal to turn out well.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    102 win teams generally regress in the win column. And the 2018 Cleveland club had little incentive to try to win that many again -- as it was, they still won the division by 13 games with only 91 wins. I wouldn't put too much stock into the owner's assessment -- that's pretty standard fare for MLB owners, who want to appear benevolent in public. Likewise, Kluber and Bauer being available for a high asking price doesn't mean much either. Obviously they weren't comfortable keeping the opening day payroll around $130 mil but neither were the Twins. I don't see them slashing it it further quite yet -- in fact, if they are in the race I wouldn't be surprised to see them add salary in-season as they did several times in recent years.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not clear that Pressly brought the best return -- both TD and MLB ranked Duran from Arizona notably ahead of the other prospects we acquired at the deadline, Sickels gave Maciel from Arizona the same letter grade as the two from Houston, etc. But even if you believe he did, he only brought that return *because he wasn't a two-month rental*. It wasn't a traditional deadline deal, so your rhetorical question "If you don't make that trade, what trade do you make at the deadline?" makes no sense. Trading him impacted our 2019 chances, as well as 2018, regardless of whether we extended him. Adding a dominant reliever to this year's Twins pen for less than $3 mil salary would be pretty great. There's a reason why most deadline deals don't involve trading good cheap assets from next year's team. The Astros are still $17 mil under the threshold yet this year. Cole is a FA after this season, but they'll shed $40 mil in salaries after this season too, and the threshold goes up, which could put them at $60 mil under the threshold after this season. After 2020, Springer is a free agent too, but they'll be shedding $50 mil at that time too. And the threshold isn't even close to any kind of hard cap -- the penalties for simply exceeding the threshold aren't that severe, unless you go way over ($40+ mil) or stay over for multiple years. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KggX-IVrw6TywbOR6OIooQyxAY1MpTlnq88PqnNkuWQ/pubhtml They can easily sign a few relievers to Pressly-like extensions for $6-8 mil a year, and still have room to re-sign Cole or Springer or find replacements.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Francona also has more postseason *series* wins (9) than Gardenhire has postseason *game* wins (6). Gardy does have more ejections, though (and in fewer games), 75-42.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    ...the other 4 trades we made around the 2018 deadline? The ones that didn't involve 2019 assets?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say 0%. Imagine if someone last year said, "the Twins keep signing Matt Belisle -- there's no way reliever X will go unclaimed" yet I'm sure some reliever X's went unclaimed. The Twins acting irrationally with Belisle, and the Royals with Duda (the Royals signed him last year too), does not necessarily mean that every player we fans see as equal or better than Belisle or Duda will likewise get claimed/signed. FWIW, Vargas cleared waivers (on his second attempt) last spring. Exact same age as Austin is now, with virtually the same career MLB OPS/OPS+. Pretty similar career AAA OPS figures at the time too (Vargas .815, Austin .834). I prefer Austin's power skill over Vargas's slightly better K% and BABIP, but I wouldn't say it's enough to guarantee Austin would get claimed. (I don't think it's a guarantee he'd clear either, though.) A big factor is being out of options. Once Austin has spent a few weeks on the Twins bench, unless he is raking in those limited ABs, it will make it harder for another team to claim him as compared to now, because they won't have the luxury of getting him up to speed in spring training or minor league games -- he'd have to go straight onto the MLB roster immediately.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect this too, yes. I think Austin would be claimed if he went on waivers now, or even if he cleared, he could elect free agency (since he's been outrighted once before) and probably find a decent spot to land on a minor league deal. But if we wait a few weeks, other rosters will be set, and he's probably less likely to be claimed, and less likely to find an appreciably better minor league deal than simply going to Rochester.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay. Because I don't think this roster necessarily represents a departure from any of that. We haven't cut anyone with "scholarship" and I don't think this roster suggests a shorter leash/scholarship for Hildenberger or Reed (any more than their poor 2018 seasons would have shortened it). Honestly, it could just be a simple matter of Reed (or even Magill) being hurt, and not wanting to expose Austin to waivers yet, rather than any kind of strategy to make the pitching staff lean and shorten leashes.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally, though, it seems like they weren't moving regular guys into that 12th or 13th mopup spot -- they mostly just rostered 12th or 13th quality guys to begin with (the Rule 5 guys, Hughes, Breslow, etc.). Going down to 11 is still good, but I don't think it means regular guys have a notably shorter leash.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if you're not a T-Mobile customer, you can find some T-Mobile customers trading their unneeded subscriptions for $5 Amazon gift cards here: https://slickdeals.net/f/12878884-it-s-back-free-mlb-tv-subscription-for-t-mobile-customers-on-3-26 If you go this route, you just won't want to use it on a non-T-Mobile data network, like Verizon, etc., or you risk cancellation. Wifi is fine, though.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Bump! This promotion is live again for 2019 now, through April 1st. You can find it in the T-Mobile Tuesdays app, or at the website https://www.t-mobiletuesdays.com/
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm intrigued -- and I certainly prefer this over the recent "12 pitchers including a random Rule 5 guy" configurations we've seen -- but I wonder if they can actually leverage these bench guys well? Also, why would you say it means no pitcher gets a long leash? On a game level, they may get more of a leash since there's 1 fewer pen option available. On a season level, I'm not sure it means anything about pitcher leashes -- they'll almost certainly be subtracting a position player and adding a pitcher when Perez moves to the rotation, so I'd think the bench player leashes might actually be shorter.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Everything? Battling his tail off, sure... but what about, blackmailing his tail off? (Or worse?)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't read too much into it. Kratz is 38 years old, Murphy was maybe too interesting to pass up (and they claimed him from a division rival). They're probably just stockpiling a bit right now, with an eye toward sorting them out later and getting Posey plenty of time at 1B too.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like you just volunteered for the season, buddy! Good luck!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    By the time the Twins acquired Punto, he apparently already had 1 season plus 51 days service time, per B-Ref (he spent most of 2003 on the Phillies roster, plus cups of coffee in 2001 and 2002). So he had already made about $400k, was vested in the pension, and had lifetime healthcare -- he could afford to bet on himself a little bit. With Hocking and Gomez gone, he probably figured he'd spend most of his first season in Minnesota too, so he could expect another $300k too. Another half season of service time on top of that and he'd get a raise through arbitration. And he had just turned 26 years old, so he probably didn't see himself near the end of the line -- if the Twins didn't want him, he'd probably get more MLB chances as a utility guy to collect more minimum salaries elsewhere. The Phillies may have had a better chance at such a deal, a couple years earlier -- but a team even offering such a deal would be a strong clue to the player that he's valued enough to spend a few years in MLB even without signing the deal. I just can't see this working.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins have some "sun study" videos on their website, which demonstrate the sun/shade effects on Target Field at various times of year/day: http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ballpark/sun_study.jsp Here's a direct link to the April 1st video: http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/07/20/mlbtv_34641123_1200K.mp4
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I realize this is a joke, but I thought it was an interesting idea... I don't think Punto would have taken that deal -- he had already banked a little money and service time with the Phillies, and was likely almost out of options, which means the Twins couldn't really keep him off the 25-man roster much longer. I think he was reasonably confident he was going to play in MLB the next couple seasons, somewhere. Franky, I don't think you could get anyone to take such a deal, unless they were pretty thoroughly a non-prospect, and/or rather old. (Or really young, like a guy who is at least 3-4 years away from MLB anyway, in which case it likely wouldn't affect their potential arbitration seasons. But then it would put them on the 40-man roster immediately, and MLB clubs wouldn't want to do that either.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    But didn't Sano get his Crocs caught in the X-ray machine and injure himself further?
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