Otto von Ballpark

Yeah, and Nick Anderson was a guy were were going to leave unprotected -- but I suspect we somehow knew he was a likely selection -- so we traded him and let Miami protect him instead. But we didn't get much back... why not just protect him?

Has that ever happened to us? Nick Burdi, maybe, but I don't think we're losing sleep over him...

You're right that Rosario probably isn't involved -- but that proposal seems high. Kirilloff and Balazovic/Duran could probably get Alcantra even if he has a bit of a breakthrough in 2020. Where he stands now, unless Miami is super-confident that he will break through, I think Kirilloff alone would be more than enough to get him, or Larnach plus a pitcher. (Not saying that's a good deal for the Twins at all!)

In terms of run prevention, Bauer has one great season out of 6; Ray, 1 out of 5. How much do you want to bet that they are available at the deadline at acceptable cost *and* represent a significant upgrade? (And hope that our rotation hasn't harmed our playoff chances in the first 4 months of the season.) Keep in mind, Arizona and Cincinnati don't have to be playoff teams to not sell -- they really just have to be in the wild card race, which can be a pretty low threshold. And even if you do get a rental at the deadline, you'll be right back in the same FA decision mode two months later (a QO might get you another year, but it also likely increases the cost to acquire them too).

If the Rays backed down that easily, they would never have had the success they've had in that division. And even with the Yankees loading up, the division is still as weak as it's been in a while. And the wild card should be just as attainable as long as Boston, Cleveland, and Oakland don't add significant talent, which seems unlikely. And if by "Rays have done stuff like this in the past" you mean trade a controllable top SP, that may not bode well for their trade partner -- the Rays did quite well in the Archer, Garza, and Price trades. They're certainly not exchanging Morton for spare parts and salary relief right now.

Virtually every team is making moves like this on a regular basis (short term, ~$10 mil AAV FA contracts, trading 35-40 FV guys like Jaylin Davis). And if every team is doing it, it's not a useful definition of risk. In fact, a few of your examples -- like signing Cron for $5 mil -- are almost trending toward too-conservative risk, like inaction or doing too little. By this definition, TR might have been the riskiest GM ever, re-signing Rondell White to start after 2006. I think it's fair to define risk, in this context, as putting more on the line -- more meaning significant money (more than short term ~$10 mil AAV FA contracts) or significant talent (top 100 prospects, and/or a lot of decent prospects). The Twins haven't done that yet. Maybe that's been the right decision so far, but they're probably going to have to do it sooner or later, lest they start limiting our potential through too much conservatism.

FYI, Ohtani only cost $22.3 mil.

Well, your previous post suggested $100 mil guys were getting $200 mil. That's not happening; I don't think that's ever happened. And $100 mil guys getting $120 mil isn't a big deal -- that's how competitive markets work. (And I'd be mildly surprised if Bumgarner topped $120 mil, at least by much.) Again, there are no younger guys to sign as FA. You have to trade for them first. How much are you willing to give up in trade? And who exactly are you targeting here? Is Jon Gray "young" enough? Although he's close enough to FA that I suspect he's not signing a reasonable extension (Cole didn't). Zac Gallen would have been nice, but he's gone already -- the Marlins leftover pitchers may be your only options for this strategy right now. Are any of them worth it?

I'm sure it's a factor, but I simply think it gets exaggerated in most cases. (Especially in a case like Wheeler's where no kids are involved.) And to the claim that "we all do it", that's true, you and I likely do it -- but you and I also haven't chosen pro sports as our life's ambition. These guys have basically been training for this vocation since childhood, and pursuing their dream in far-flung college and minor league destinations for years. Why would we assume that suddenly around age 30 their priorities would align with ours? And before you say "because they finally have a ton of money" -- remember, these guys are still conveniently almost always signing with the high bidder regardless (Wheeler signed for maybe 2% less than the high bid, to go to a clearly better team to boot), *and* that same money allows them to live a lifestyle where they don't need to "work" close to home to stay close with family. There certainly don't seem to be examples of players taking even, say, 5/100, while spurning offers of 5/120, to go to a preferred destination. When the difference is $2 mil, I'd say it's more of a convenience than a primary factor.

You're going to have to list examples to back up that claim. If your basis is Cole, remember that Coles don't grow on trees, there's usually a lot of suitors when they are available, and the selling team might have specific requirements that may be difficult to satisfy, even if not requiring top prospects. (The Twins at the time didn't really have a Musgrove/Feliz/Moran package to offer, in terms of potential and MLB experience/readiness for the reloading Pirates. I could see the Rockies or Diamondbacks similarly looking to reload in a Gray or Ray trade, respectively.) But off the top of my head, there are several recent trades which correlate just fine with the notion that the Twins may have to part with one of their top 3 prospects. Paxton cost a top-50 prospect last winter; Archer cost a couple recent top 20 prospects. If you are talking rentals or 1.5 year players -- somehow the price was high enough to prevent the Twins from making a deal this past summer, despite a fairly clear need. And a lot of sellers have already sold -- Toronto, Arizona, etc. Are they selling any more? And do they still have anything left to sell? Among younger or more under-the-radar types, there's Zac Gallen who basically cost a top-50 prospect. The other Marlins starters might be cheaper but might not be as good, and of course there's little urgency for them to deal either. The Twins may be at a disadvantage right now too, because there aren't a lot of clear sellers (at least not a lot with good pitchers!) and a few of the most rumored sellers (Detroit with Boyd, Cleveland with Kluber/Carassco, and maybe even KC with Duffy) are in our division, which might complicate matters a bit (especially with Cleveland).

Don't multiple seasonal homes suggest that it's *not* as big of a deal as it's made out to be? That the family will still live together, mostly the same, regardless of where the player signs?

This looks a little like a video game trade, where you pile up throw-in types until they add up to something. Nothing wrong with including one or two in a trade package, but you probably can't build a whole big package around them exclusively. Also, signing a guy one year, then trading him the next would be a bit unusual, especially when the player and team does well in that one year. I don't think Arizona would be shopping Escobar, and would probably need a more compelling return to move him at this point.

I think you are looking at the last two lines in the table at B-Ref, but they're both 2019 as he was traded midseason -- Roark had 1.6 WAR with Cincinnati, and 0.4 for Oakland after the trade.

The point is, I don't think the Rays would be too motivated to move Snell right now without a massive overpay.

I think Ray, as a SP, would be more palatable on a qualifying offer, so that might mitigate the one year control factor a bit. Ray is also likely to be more intriguing than Rosario at the deadline next summer, so Arizona could probably wait to deal him if they want. (Not necessarily for Rosario, of course, but for some package of reasonable value.)

What younger guy that you could bank on is signing a FA deal for 5/50 (or 5/75 after "overpay")? Or what such guy is getting dealt to us before signing that deal? If they're any good at all, and they're willing to sign a long term reasonable contract, the prospect cost could be enormous. (And guys probably aren't too eager to sign long-term deals with unfamiliar organizations, if they don't have to.) The overpay for the Wheeler range (20%) looks manageable, if we like those pitchers. Nobody is jumping up from $100 mil expected contracts to $200 mil.

True, although the post to which I was responding seemed to lean heavily on kids/parenting duties. But there are certainly other factors to a relationship! Good point on the multiple homes -- with these kinds of incomes, having a second home in your team's city is probably nearly universal. Might not help the family during school months if they have kids, but during the non-school summer months the whole family could be together there quite often.

Yup. If you're dealing in the class of age/experience for pitchers, the numbers don't mean a whole lot.

Yes, it's a blind dream. Gore is pretty much untouchable. They wouldn't trade him for Syndergaard. They're definitely not going to use him to dump Myers. You could possibly look lower on their prospect list for a match, although they already moved Urias (for another young player).

The Dodgers are obviously a very good team, but I do get a "born to runner-up" vibe from them...

That's fair. Alcantra was obviously only 23, in his first full MLB season, but improvement isn't guaranteed, especially with Alcantra's non-elite history. (Is he a ground-ball artist or something? Low K rates, in the majors and minors.) I'm indifferent but I wouldn't blame the FO if they liked him for some reason (although I reserve the right to blame them if they turn out to be wrong ). From the Marlins side, they will want to be compensated for forgoing the chance at an Alcantra breakout. And that might be too much for the Twins side to pay right now.

I suspect another piece would be involved too, especially since the Marlins would be taking on all the money in that deal. Is it too late for them to throw in Wei Yi Chen's remaining salary obligations? They'd obviously have to think highly of Balazovic or Duran too. And maybe I'm light? Alcantra is still 2 years away from arb -- Marlins might still bet on him for a breakout season. They didn't trade Ozuna or Realmuto early, after all. Zac Gallen might have been the exception rather than the rule, and they certainly didn't trade him for anyone like Rosario, but rather an up-the-middle top 100 prospect.

On the surface, the Marlins probably don't need to use top trade assets to address their left-handed hitting outfielder needs. But then again, they are the Marlins, so who knows -- and it behooves us to stay in contact with them! FWIW, baseballtradevalues.com has Rosario at 10.8 and Alcantra at 27.4. So it might take a Balazovic (13.6) or Duran (16) to make up the difference -- I don't think the usual prospect throw-ins like Rooker or Thorpe would get it done. Caleb Smith (14.1) might be more attainable, although he's still a year away from arb so I suspect the Marlins would rather bet on him one more year than cash him in right now.

That's an interesting offer, for sure. Would make the Rays think, at least. The things that might give them pause are that Kirilloff is perhaps a less-than-elite corner player, and Graterol's health and innings history. They might think that Snell's demonstrated upside is high enough, and his contract friendly enough, that they may be fielding comparable offers for awhile yet, even if Snell doesn't get back to 2018 form. (And the Chris Archer example suggests they might be right!) So no urgency on taking that offer now. Swap Lewis in for Kirilloff and you could definitely get it down now, though, I'd imagine. But it would definitely be a high cost!

Again, I'd scratch Darvish from that list. The way his 2019 finished and this offseason is trending, Darvish at 4/81 seems like a perfectly appropriate investment for virtually any contending team.