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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd take that with a big grain of salt. "Higher offer" could mean 6/120, or 4/100 (higher AAV), or even 5/125 but with a bunch of deferred money. Or of course it could also just be incorrect or a PR exaggeration -- makes the White Sox look better, makes Wheeler look better, it's a win-win all around, so no one would bother setting the record straight if it was incorrect or misleading.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the "missed time" for both Wheeler and Darvish was primarily just an early season TJ surgery, causing the time off and rehab to span a couple seasons. Wheeler had a little extra arm trouble in his first full season after TJ too, but it's not far-fetched to think that was also related to his surgery and time off. If that level of "durability" is concerning for you, you will probably end up passing on a lot of good pitchers.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean the Nick Punto trade?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Although non-tendering him now makes him a free agent, free to sign with any team he wants. If they wanted to cut him earlier, I think he would have had to go through waivers (either outright waivers or release waivers) and if another team claimed him, he would have been stuck with them with no choice in the matter. So ideally, he could find himself an org that's a better match now as a FA. (And if he was claimed, then waived again and outrighted, he would have been stuck in the minors for another team not of his choosing too.) Non-tendering him might have saved him from the waiver merry-go-around, although now he has the tough task of catching on with another org.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Cron non-tendered
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Pomeranz currently has a pedigree, profile, and contract not unlike Andrew Miller circa 2014, which worked out pretty well.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    ESPN+ does *not* have the regular ESPN channels. It's an addon service, not a replacement for anything.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That's pretty wild. But note that Bryant is projected to get ~$46 mil over the next 2 years (he'll get almost $20 mil in 2020 alone, plus presumably a raise for 2021), while Marwin only has $9 mil remaining.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Meh. I think Boras would probably do the same thing, if the situation was reversed. And I don't think he'd change his approach in negotiations whether the Yankees do this or not. Remember when the Yankees tried to void A-Rod's contract too?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it's likely, but the theory behind it would be, if you could move someone like Darvish for a decent return, then turn around and sign someone like Wheeler or whomever at comparable or less cost, you've made a net improvement. Of course, if Wheeler or whomever is equivalent to Darvish, other teams will probably just sign them themselves and not give up prospects/talent in trade.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    True -- but if they're looking to add free agents, then I really don't think staying under the *lowest* luxury tax line is necessarily a priority for them.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Browsing this Twitter account, I don't think it's anything more than a fan like us -- I'd be surprised if this involved a reliable source. It was pushing a Kris Bryant for Jo Adell trade a few weeks ago...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Chisholm is off the BA top 100? That's weird. Fangraphs still had him at 28, and MLB at 54. The Twins may have a better system but unfortunately that doesn't always mean they're a better match in trade. I agree, I would love to see us make a move like that.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Per Cot's estimates, the Cubs may only be $5.4 mil over the lowest tax threshold in 2020, so they don't necessarily have to clear much room, even if they want to get under. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1He7WB2TXeoGRjWmS3-pkTXz_kHh773JvhCXLVXxkTWg/edit#gid=1520401900 They could have declined Quintana's option if that was really important. They could also still non-tender Russell and make up most of overage.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    For the Twins, though, it's not an "either-or", it's an "and". They probably need Pineda AND another good starter or two. I've got no qualms if you prefer Bumgarner at 4/72, etc., but for every pitcher you pass on, it increases the chance you'll wind up fishing in the Martín Pérez waters again. The Twins probably can't afford to be that choosy about FA SP this winter when we're talking about estimated market rate contracts.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Abreu also just had his two worst seasons at age 31-32. He was already an edge case for QO at 1/17.8 -- there's definitely an argument that they probably didn't have to commit to his age 33-35 seasons at this rate. Of course, it's not enough that it's going to hurt them either, even if Abreu declines further. And it mitigates some of the risk of filling that spot year-to-year (i.e. Yonder Alonso last year).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think "I told you so" type discussions are a kind of snark, definitionally. If you think a better/younger/controllable starter will get dealt cheaper than that this winter (in terms of money + talent), and will be available to the Twins at that price, do I get to say "I told you so" when that doesn't happen?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    So let me get this straight: The market estimate for Wheeler of 5/100 is an overpay... which means teams can expect to find better value options in trade? I think you've got that backwards. The market estimate for Wheeler is 5/100 precisely *because* it's so difficult to find better options in trade. FWIW, I wouldn't necessarily sign him to 5/100 today (although I'd be tempted too, if my scouts/coaches really liked him). But he'd be in the mix at that figure, along with other FA options. I don't expect a better (younger/controllable) pitcher to get dealt in trade, at least not any more cheaply (in terms of talent).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Wheeler had TJ surgery, and a setback in his initial return from it. He hasn't been missing random seasons here and there.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm still not sure that's a particularly useful way to look at it. If a team has good SP, even a non-playoff team, their 3rd best SP could still be pretty good. 2019 Cleveland, 2018 Cardinals, etc. Team rank is pretty inconsequential, compared to overall rank (as well as cost/control/availability, in this discussion from the Twins perspective -- no sense preferring to wait for players you can't have). And I'll ask again: what do you think Wheeler will get paid? That's kind of a key component to saying he won't be worth it. If you think he'll get 6/140, that's a lot different than MLBTR's 5/100 or Doogie's 5/89.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to the Twins, we didn't really have a prospect that matches up with Jazz Chisholm. Royce Lewis would have been closest, and that's probably an overpay. Kirilloff and Graterol might have been comparable in prospect rank, but neither is an up-the-middle position player either, so I'm not sure Miami would view them as equivalent to Chisholm.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    You heard it here first: the Twins will re-sign Martín Pérez on Cyber Monday!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Not to mention, SPs have a large impact on a fairly small number of games, while position players have a small impact on a large number of games. I'm not sure how that all balances, but I wouldn't necessarily expect a 1:1 ratio in PA / batters faced.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Unfortunately, Doogie didn't say you could do it yesterday. Only RIGHT NOW. (Which I guess has already passed too? )
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, his team has the 2-time reigning Cy Young winner on the staff, so there's no shame being behind him. Not sure how you get "3rd at best" -- Wheeler had the 2nd best bWAR, 2nd best fWAR, 2nd best FIP, even including Stroman's numbers from Toronto. Admittedly he's closer to Stroman/Syndergaard in those categories than to deGrom, but again, no shame in that either -- the Twins could benefit from that level of pitcher too. (If Wheeler was closer to deGrom's numbers, he'd be in the Cole-Strasburg group for expected contract.) Edit: I guess I should ask, what do you think he will get paid? MLBTR predicted 5/100. Doogie Wolfson said it could get done for 5/89 (5 years at the current QO rate).
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