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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, there was the marked rise in strikeouts, even before the concussion. I don't doubt the concussion was a factor, but it could have been compounded by the rising K's (and limiting his potential futuree adjustments). Has it been reported that the symptoms have cleared? I wonder if he's just learned to manage/adjust to them better over time too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, I don't think the Twins actually carried a third catcher all that much. I remember looking at it, and it was primarily at the beginning of 2005 and 2009, when Mauer was coming off injury. (And when September rosters expanded, of course.) The Twins of that era just rarely spent anything on external upgrades. They had room in the rotation and went with Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, and Livan Hernandez. They had room at DH and went with Rondell White (twice!). They didn't even make modest additions on the level of Pavano, Cabrera, Crede, Rauch, etc. until TR stepped aside and they got close to Target Field opening. Keep in mind, Mauer was the most obvious lifetime Twin ever, and they didn't even manage to sign him to any kind of long-term contract until after he won a batting title, and didn't manage to buy more than 1 FA year until after he won a MVP. That's major frugality/conservatism, right there. I could see the argument that they valued having DHs who could contribute at other positions, but that leads to Shannon Stewart, Rondell White, and later Jason Kubel. Or going back further, Matt LeCroy, and dumping Ortiz with Mientkiewicz at 1B and Morneau in the wings. I don't think having Mauer at catcher had much to do with that preference.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that's right. Mauer didn't even play 20 games at DH until 2009. We could have signed Thome after 2002, or dealt for him after 2005, but I think we were just too frugal/conservative to invest in external solutions at the position until at least 2008 or so, when TR stepped down and Target Field was on the horizon. And by then we had Kubel.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, it seems like Joe (and Dozier) only played like 2 games during the week, which makes it a little hard to highlight their accomplishments during said week.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that Mauer is a strong candidate, but I was about to disagree that he was "hitting like old Mauer." Because he's not really hitting like "vintage" Mauer, of course -- but perhaps he is hitting like "vintage" Mauer aged to 35 years (as of tomorrow, happy early birthday, Joe!). Mauer through age 30: 135 OPS+, 134 wRC+ Mauer age 34: 115 OPS+, 116 wRC+ Compared to: Mauer age 31-33: 103 OPS+, 99 wRC+ Obviously off to a hot start this year, but it seems primarily walk and BABIP driven. I expect he will settle into a batting line like 2017. I don't know if it's the concussion symptoms clearing or what, but he seems to be back on a more graceful aging curve in 2017 and so far in 2018.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually there were 2 AB in question. The 3rd inning is the one you brought up, but the 7th inning is what Steve was quoting run expectancy for.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    You think Mauer's Twins from 2004-2010 (or whatever) were held back because of challenges in roster construction?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That's scoring *A* run, meaning 1 single run. What about the chances for scoring multiple runs? That's probably the important one, being that we were down 4 runs in 7th inning at the time. Although I'm not ragging on Mauer here. He was facing LHP Andrew Miller, a walk to bring up RHB Sano is probably just fine.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The game was televised nationally on FS1. Tonight's game is on ESPN.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Hard to do alternate reality. On paper, Prior would have likely helped in 2003, but our offense was shut down pretty well in the ALDS that year. 3 runs in game 1 behind Santana, then only 1 run each in games 2, 3, and 4... not sure if Prior could have helped. 2004 might be a better year. Prior was hurt early in the season, but returned for the second half and finished strong. Would have meant AJ at catcher, and no Joe Nathan at closer, but I think we would have survived those changes, just like we survived Mauer's injury. The offense did reasonably well in the ALDS that year but we scuffled behind mediocre to poor starts from Radke and Silva. Seems likely that adding Prior to that team could have at least set up a Game 5 full rest start from Johan. But vs the Yankees, we probably would have found a way to screw it up regardless. (Had we advanced, it would have really changed history -- no Red Sox comeback vs NY...) It's a bit more of a stretch to look back at 2002 -- would we have promoted Prior in time? Would he have contributed that quickly for us? But if he could have replaced Rick Reed, either overall or in the playoff rotation, that might have helped. Reed struggled in both of his starts that postseason, putting us in a 2-1 hole vs Oakland, and preventing us from going to LA up 2-0 on the Angels which would have prevented the series from ending in LA. Prior was still decent in 2005 but fading by season's end, and the Twins finished well behind Chicago and Cleveland. By 2006, of course, Prior was cooked, and Mauer was greatly out-performing AJ too. Target Field was finally approved in May 2006. I don't think that would have been affected much.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    More or less, for 12 years or so. But actually, Prior was pretty incredible his first few years in the league, and they predated Mauer's arrival. It's an interesting thought experiment to wonder if Prior would have improved our playoff fortunes in 2002-2004. I assume Seth will address that in part 2.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Berardino has reported it the other way more recently too: https://www.twincities.com/2018/04/05/ervin-santana-could-be-sent-back-to-hand-surgeon-for-another-look/amp/
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Grossman only needs 10 AB, right? He's all set!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds good! We could even drop the "consecutive" requirement, if necessary.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the report, it is fun to listen to the other team's announcers sometimes. (Except the White Sox!) You should get MLB Extra Innings with your DirecTV: https://www.directv.com/sports/mlb
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The thread seems pretty reasonable to me.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Davis is a LHB. If you are going to have him face the RHB, it would be nonsensical to pull him before Davis. Still doesn't mean it was right to use him for the RHB. The meaning is, he is a specialist. He isn't generally used to pitch a full inning. No shame in pulling him before he completes a full inning, if his specialized task is complete.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are Duke's average pitches per appearance the last 4 years: 2017: 10.2 2016: 12.5 2015: 14.8 2014: 13.2 He was at 16 pitches before the triple. I think I'm comfortable pulling that guy when he's already logged 16 pitches and he's facing a RHB with the go-ahead run in scoring position in the bottom of the 7th. There's a reason that Duke has averaged less than a inning per appearance each of the last 4 seasons. No reason to make him complete an inning on opening day, with a rested pen and abundant off days.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't label him a specialist, but note that Duke averaged well below an inning per appearance each of the last 4 years, and he only faced 56% RHB during that time (versus, for example, 65% for Taylor Rogers last year). That suggests Duke's usage had tended towards specialist, and his results vs RHB should be viewed in that light (he's probably not facing many good RHB, although Caleb Joseph isn't a good one either but with 20+ pitches and the go-ahead run at second, that threshold is lowered considerably).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If I was an Orioles fan, I'd be a little upset (well, had they lost). No reason to let the RHP Brach face the LHB Kepler in that situation.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Honest question: what's the average number of warning-track flys per team, per game? B-Ref says 6.1 fly ball outs per AL team, per game last year, and Fangraphs says 7.0. But I know you have more advanced data sources!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You want to cite platoon splits from an 18 inning sample? Since moving to relief in 2012, Duke had a .273 wOBA vs LHP, and a .301 wOBA vs RHB. 2.66 FIP vs LHB, 4.10 FIP vs RHB. I don't think you have to point to just the platoon split, or just the pitch count -- the two factors combined to make it a highly suspect decision.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, LaMarre had decent spring training numbers in 2016 and 2017 too (.829 and .873 OPS, respectively). Actually similar/better ISO, BB%, and K% to his 2018 spring training performance -- the big difference statistically seems to be BABIP.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    In fairness, though, LaMarre was dreadful at the plate in 2017, to the tune of a 68 wRC+, .057 ISO, and 0 HR in 194 PA at AAA (in the hitter-friendly PCL, no less). He could improve on that and still not be worthy of a MLB roster spot. Although as a 4th outfielder on this squad, it shouldn't much matter.
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