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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Redirected from another thread... Hey, at least you're not closely watching NFL preseason games! (I hope!) FWIW, Bard wasn't the only Angel pitcher to get shelled yesterday: Obviously Bard has less of a margin for error than some guys. Should be interesting to follow.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Ortiz was better in the minors than Vargas, and Ortiz was among the best hitters in MLB in the second half of 2002. As for your list, Willingham was still a catcher at that point in his career, with only 57 career MLB PAs. Encarnacion was a 3B, Cuddyer was a 3B, and Bautista was a utility player. Even Cruz was nominally an outfielder. And not all of those guys got notably better. Trumbo has been a worse hitter after age 26. Morrison had the big year at age 29 but is only marginally better post-26 (111 OPS+) than he was pre-27 (108 OPS+).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Just like how we traded Arcia to the Rays for basically nothing (maybe the waiver fee?). Not that we would really fear facing him in the division , but no sense giving a free lotto ticket to (or just improving the depth of) a direct rival, if we can help it.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    And more context, 2017 was the worst DH hitting season since Fangraphs records of that split begin in 2002. 95 wRC+. The only other season worse than 104 was 2013 at 100. Pujols was #2 in DH PA, Trumbo was #6, and Beltran #7 -- and all 3 were awful at the plate. And overall DH stats can more easily get skewed by a few bad performers, because there are only half has many DH spots (15) as every other position in MLB (30). And I would guess most teams look to replace or augment DH's who post a mark around 100 or below and haven't shown much potential for notably better performance. Collectively they may not improve much on that figure, but they try, when possible. (Contracts obviously complicate their efforts at times.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess he's a roughly equal hitter from both sides of the plate -- you just see a lot of year-to-year fluctuation because the samples are so small. The problem is, he's not particularly good from either side. His career splits aren't a great sample size either, but he is at 108 wRC+ vs. LHP, 96 vs. RHP. Neither figure is good enough for a DH/1B/bench bat. He'd have to sustain a 120-130 figure to really have any value.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas hasn't really shown these flashes. Since A-ball, he has pretty much hovered around .200 ISO and a K rate climbing to 30%. With his profile, that's pretty much a below league average player overall. Professional evaluators shouldn't have to give that guy 500 MLB PA in a season to know what they have. The Twins never gave that kind of PA to Parmelee either. (The Twins did give plenty of PA to Ortiz, but that didn't work out for other reasons.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas is almost 28 years old. The Twins had 4 option years for him. If anything, the decision point is late (from his perspective).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    And keep in mind this is the same Angels org that rostered their last two Rule 5 picks: Deolis Guerra (former Twin and minor league FA) and Taylor Featherston (.162 AVG, current Twins minor league FA). All while trying to compete too. I'm not claiming Bard is a lock to make their 2018 squad, but given the circumstances, I'd give him greater odds than the average Rule 5 pick.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Angels lost 3 of their top bullpen contributors from 2017 (Petit, Norris, and Hernandez), and their only acquisition (aside from Bard) appears to be the 5.56 ERA of Jim Johnson. A couple of those 8 RP active in 2017 were August waiver pickups (with little organizational seniority advantage over Bard) and/or mediocre performers. Blake Wood looks like a 32 year old Tonkin clone, for example. If the Angels go with a 6 man rotation, it is because Otani is pulling double duty as a DH, so presumably it would come at the expense of a bench position player rather than a reliever. Also, with a 10 day DL, it is less important to have players with options on your roster for flexibility.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is a pretty good chance the Angels keep Bard -- they have kept several Rule 5 the last few years. That doesn't mean he will contribute much, but I would be mildly surprised if he winds up back in Rochester this year.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally correct. Players with less than 3 years service time, added to the 40-man between August 15 and the Rule 5 draft, can't be outrighted off the 40-man roster between the World Series up until 20 days before opening day. But they can be "removed" by release or trade. Or even by 60-day DL once pitchers and catchers report, like Burdi. No different than Kinley in that regard -- he couldn't be outrighted off the 40-man either (or optioned, once the season began). And of course, outrighting is only possible if a player clears waivers, and Bard and Burdi would have both likely been claimed anyway. Given that we signed 6 MLB free agents (including Sanchez) and still kept Kinley, I don't think this was really part of their criteria for leaving Burdi and Bard unprotected.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite that simple. Kinley would have to clear waivers too, before we could make this deal. If the Twins see enough from him this spring to want to keep him in the org, it seems possible another team would put in a claim. Hence these kinds of Rule 5 trades are quite rare.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as I enjoy the numbers, I think MLB development/transitions are still often more art than science. I'm all for giving guys spot starts like Jorge last summer, and definitely promoting them late in the season or anytime you have clinched or been eliminated. But I don't think guys universally need (or would necessarily respond well to) repeated cycles of MLB promotions in a short time period. And likewise, counting on those guys to collectively fill a full rotation spot too early would also seem to be a bit of an abdication of responsibility and judgement on the part of management. A lot of people here get upset when management lets someone go without a full trial, but that's a huge part of their job -- if all they were supposed to do was give every player a couple hundred innings or a thousand PAs, well, anyone could do that. Similarly, while we might see 3-4 SP prospects and want to sort through them in the 5th starter spot, part of the FO's job is to ascertain distinctions and differences between them and judge their preparation and readiness individually, sometimes even without the benefit of MLB appearances.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, bring SP prospects up to potentially contribute as bullpen guys, etc. That's not unusual. But that's not what I was responding to, which was literally starting a guy, then sending him down, and repeating that every turn through the rotation. Heck, if I was a teammate, I am not sure I would endorse that either -- if you think the pitcher is ready, let him pitch. If not, leave him in AAA, and get someone else who is ready.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. It would be quite a departure. Even if you tell them the plan, the players might feel like they are getting jerked around. They would like days in the majors, but I don't think they would see the alternative as being stuck in AAA, they would see it as getting a chance to stay in MLB. It is also somewhat moot. I don't know how much development happens in a game here and a game there. I like the numbers side of the game, but even I feel that development and adjustment is often more art than science. And the Twins current SP prospects don't even have any meaningful AAA experience yet -- by the time that happens, there might be some clear separation between them as far as who is ready for a MLB trial.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope, but it's not always so easy. That rotation would have a number of veterans whose leash would be fairly long, not unlike the 5.4+ ERA guys of years past. They're not getting bounced for a couple bad starts, or maybe not even a bad month or two. Plus, they will have to make up for Ervin's missed time and possible regression. I would expect some improvement overall, but given the pitchers we have added, probably modest (even with Lynn). Maybe instead of 19-24 range for ERA/FIP/innings, they could be 15-20 range.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Second time requesting waivers doesn't have any additional ramifications. Only the second time outrighting him off the 40-man roster, which hasn't happened yet -- so the next time will be Chargois' first.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking closer at Morrison's projections -- as you would expect, both ZiPS and Steamer have him losing power and walks from 2017. Still, they both project him to roughly match his pre-2017 career highs in both BB% and ISO, so they are not unreasonable in that regard. Even so, after his 130 wRC+ in 2017, ZiPS still looks pretty good with a 120 wRC+ -- but it also projects him for a .288 BABIP, when his career mark is .273 and his 2017 season was only .268. Steamer gives him a .278 BABIP and the result is just a 108 wRC+. Grossman projects at 104/107 by Steamer/ZiPS, and Vargas 100/101. (And Grossman is coming off a 102 and Vargas a 98.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, those looking at WAR -- Morrison mostly played 1B last year (119 starts), with just a bit of DH (17 starts). If those reverse, he will lose about 3-4 runs just through the positional adjustment (Rpos at B-Ref). Plus losing another 1 run from fielding, since he won't be playing the field much. So even if he repeats his 2017 offensive performance (and health), it may only be worth 3.1 bWAR / 2.8 fWAR (rather than 3.6 / 3.3) in the context of the 2018 Twins. (Assuming Mauer takes the lion's share of 1B reps.) Still pretty good for such a modest commitment, of course. But it just changes the baseline a bit.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure about that. Remember Suzuki had a vesting option that was not a team option -- it either vested or he was a FA. I haven't seen Morrison's referred to as anything but a vesting option either, so we will see.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2019 option vests with 600 PA this season.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas is out of options, so he has leverage. The Twins would either need to keep him in MLB or expose him to waivers, in which case he should get another MLB job. The guys we've usually sold overseas had options remaining, so the choice was Rochester or overseas ball. Not so for Vargas anymore.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas should be virtually free by the end of spring training, either by DFA or waivers. I think teams will just wait for that, rather than bother to include him in a larger trade now. (Of course, if the Twins were willing to throw him in a larger deal now for virtually nothing, then another team might take him.)
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