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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    This understates it. Considering that incentives and midseason acquisitions will also count against this cap, 9 teams (those with $26 mil or less of cap space) might completely lose all flexibility just by adding one more player around the qualifying offer salary of $17.4 mil. That's going to have a big effect on the market. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xROOkgctuzj56pUSP6zCxUUQ1i7LND0jnficQ0TPtIY8OhNl3AN_StqMvBCHnO_qOXKZeTbE/pubhtml
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Clark and the MLBPA just filed a grievance against 4 teams for not spending revenue-sharing money: Rays, Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins. According to Cot's, the Rays have a record-high opening day payroll this year ($77 mil, up from $70 mil last year). The Pirates are only down about 10% ($95 mil to $85 mil). They've been over $90 mil the previous 3 seasons, but are coming off seasons of 78 wins (2016) and 75 wins (2017). The A's are coming off a franchise-record 3 year payroll from 2015-2017, and last-place finishes in each season. They are down about 28%. Despite their fire sale, the Marlins are just shy of $90 mil payroll too. Easily the 3rd highest payroll in franchise history, after only 2017 and 2012. Historically, none of these teams consistently sign even mid-level FA talent (the Marlins might be closest, but even that has come in bunches), so they're not likely having a serious effect on players going unsigned. Maybe the availability of Gerrit Cole had an effect on the SP market earlier, but a small number of quality players getting traded isn't really new to the offseason market either. If this is an indicator of how Clark and the MLBPA will articulate their collusion case, it's not a good sign.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    He's probably not an ace now, but prior to last season, Cueto had a six season run with a 2.73 ERA, 145 ERA+ over 166 starts, good for 27 bWAR or 4.5 per season. That's comparable or better than the pitchers you mention.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    "He ain't heavy, he's my fifth starter..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUcvPK82kA
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not clear. A split contract would sort of imply he would consent to a minor league assignment, but you are right, he has enough service time to refuse an optional or outright assignment. But Berardino also reported it less like a split, and more like an arbitration deal that guarantees him some termination pay if he's cut during spring training. Then again, he did consent to a minor league assignment with the Tigers last year (it's actually reported that he asked for it, although perhaps only because the alternative was bullpen or release) -- maybe that's an option this year as well? Maybe he is confident that the 40-man spot will lead him back to MLB? Although one might think he would rather have a minor league deal with opt out dates...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think some are selling Cueto's 2015 postseason short. Down 1 game to zero in the ALDS, when another loss would have quickly put them on the brink of elimination, he kept them in the game vs Houston for an eventual game 2 win to even the series, and then pitched brilliantly (2 hits in 8 IP) actually facing elimination in game 5 to win the series. He had a clunker vs Toronto in the ALCS, but the Royals were up 2 games to zero at the time (not to sound like a "pitch to the score" guy but that game had perhaps the least urgency of the Royals postseason). Then in the World Series, he picked up his teammates after a marathon 14 inning game 1 with a another 2 hitter, this time a complete game, to give them a 2-0 series lead heading to New York, guaranteeing the Royals couldn't lose the series on the road. Also, those picking on his regular season performance that year -- not to sound like another "pitch to the score" argument -- but remember the Royals had an 8 game lead when they acquired him at the deadline, and 2 of his first 3 starts were pretty dominant as they pushed that lead to 12 games by mid-August, and they finished 12 games up at season's end too. Obviously KC would have preferred good performances to mediocre ones regardless of the context, but Cueto wasn't being asked to pitch big games in the regular season, particularly not outside his first couple weeks with KC.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Sano started 79 of 120 games at 3B before fouling a ball of his shin and missing the rest of the year. That would have been a pace of 107 starts at 3B over a full season, or 117 total in the field counting his 1B starts. With a better DH option in Morrison, they might push Sano to play the field a bit more too -- counting his DH starts, he was on a 149 games started pace last year. I could see them aiming for a 130/20 split, depending on the health and performance of all involved. Of course, whether Sano can avoid missing time is a fair question too, even if this injury wasn't directly related to playing the field.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering, the Twins promoted Vargas straight out of AA in 2014, despite some fairly pedestrian minor league numbers. After an uninspiring few months in 2015, he was replaced at DH by Sano on a contending team. 2016 we rolled the dice on Park to open the season, and then picked up Grossman who proceeded to show at least as much promise as Vargas ever had. 2017, another contending season, he split time at DH with the aforementioned Grossman getting the lion's share. So it wasn't like Vargas was getting passed over for guys like Ryan Doumit or end-of-the-line Kubel. And even through all of this, Vargas wasn't getting banished to AAA or the bench completely -- he had at least 177 PA in the majors each of the last 4 seasons, and 480-630 PA total each year between MLB and AAA. The only months where he really didn't play semi-regularly somewhere were September 2015 and September 2017, both where the minor league season had ended and the Twins were in a pennant race with an equal or better option at DH after Vargas failed to distinguish himself.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite. When you just click the "DH" tab on Fangraphs, it shows the total stats of every player who somehow "qualifies" as a DH, even if those stats were accumulated at other positions. You have to go to the "Split" drop-down menu and select DH to see the cumulative performance of our actual starting DHs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=44&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d So technically, we were only 8th in the AL with an 88 wRC+ out of the DH spot -- Grossman and Vargas both performed a little worse as a DH than when the played the field, although interestingly enough, it was mainly dragged down by 100 awful PA from Sano as a DH (51 wRC+). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=44&season1=2017&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I saw new baseballs for $2 at Goodwill the other day, so assuming Willie didn't damage it much with his pen, it would still probably be worth a buck or so! I just checked eBay, and there are actually listings for Willie Banks autographed items (including baseballs). eBay claims one of them even sold as a "Buy It Now" item on Feb. 5 for $22.46 plus $6.99 shipping which just seems insane to me. It has to be part of a money laundering scheme, right? Like, the Russian oligarchs can't pay us directly, so they buy our "phantom" Willie Banks autographed memorabilia?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Much like Larkin was a .267 hitting robot, perhaps Grossman is a 14% walk rate robot?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    But -- how's her fastball, relative to before she took up Pilates?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe he was doing it wrong? He could have easily missed the letter "i" and tried lifting/throwing plates instead...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Bowden is wrong here. The $50 mil threshold only determines what kind of compensation pick the other team will receive. The pick that the signing team loses is not affected by the contract size. (And the picks aren't directly transferred -- the Twins, for example, could forfeit a third-rounder, but the Rays could receive a comp pick between the first and second round.) https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658 https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3512 If you think about it, it makes sense. Otherwise there would be all kinds of questions about "gaming the system" -- $49 mil "guarantees" plus easily reached incentives, player options, etc. to avoid the $50 mil threshold. The Rockies wouldn't have signed Wade Davis for $52 mil, for example!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Do your friends and clients call you "Uncle Drew"?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sanchez is a weird one for sure, and I am not sure how to even judge him this spring. His spring training numbers were pretty consistent throughout his Tigers years, and even back to his Marlins years: http://m.mlb.com/player/434671/anibal-sanchez?year=2018&stats=career-s-pitching-mlb
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I disagree. Hughes is healthy, has a clear preference for starting, and we still have 2/26 committed to him. Especially with Ervin out, I think he's basically guaranteed a month or two in the rotation to open the season (barring injury, of course). Sanchez is the "6th starter" right now, insurance in case another SP gets injured this spring (so we don't have to force Duffey or Slegers into that role). I'd guess Sanchez also has an outside chance at taking Mejia's spot with a really good showing this spring, but I think Hughes is pretty safe for now -- what else could they realistically do with him?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    For certain players and deals, I think these extra contract clauses would be more relevant. But Lynn is an established, healthy starting pitcher. I think the guaranteed years/dollars (or absence thereof!) are significant enough on their own to judge the offer.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. He's not a Nolasco or a Pelfrey -- Lynn's last 3 active seasons are 133, 129, and 124 ERA+. Full seasons too. Ervin 2016-2017 and Duffey's 10 start rookie season are the only Twins SP who has touched those run prevention figures since Scott Baker back in 2011. Lynn's FIP trend wasn't good in 2017, and he certainly wasn't my first choice this winter, and I'm not sure I'd really want to add him for much after adding Odorizzi -- but I think he's got the potential to be a good bargain for somebody.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, it probably wasn't any kind of formal offer with paperwork, and it could have been expressed more as a limit for the team rather than a specific valuation of the player. For example, they could have been having a discussion with Lynn's agent, and said they'd be open to adding another SP -- but with their current payroll, they're not comfortable going beyond 2/12, and Lynn's agent told them that wouldn't work for him. The weird thing about it, though, is that it was for 2 years. A 1 year, ~$12 mil offer would seem more likely, I would think.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Apologies if I missed this reported around here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/placing-the-remaining-top-50-free-agents.html
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Occam's Razor: the team had many relief prospects who had already passed Burdi and Bard and Chargois, and they also signed (or planned to sign, at the time of the Rule 5 draft) several FA relievers. Don't overthink this, if they thought these pitchers were good and valuable to the 2018 team, the "risks" you describe would not have stopped them.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor league players can be placed on the MLB 60 day DL. It happened to Chargois just last September. Teams generally avoid it because it gives the player a higher salary and service time and can't be reversed, but it is absolutely possible if needed. And a player injured before spring training, like Burdi, has to go on the MLB DL if they are not healthy by opening day because they can't be optioned to the minors while injured.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In a market where SP are moving as cheaply as Odorizzi and Garcia, and other names are still available, I don't think anyone is touching Hughes at 2/26 for now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. Arcia apparently got $1.7 mil there: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/oswaldo-arcia-signs-ham-fighters-japan-npb.html Of course, Arcia was coming off a big AAA performance (albeit in the PCL) that Vargas has never really achieved anywhere. And Arcia was a free agent with a bit more leverage -- if Vargas goes overseas right now, his MLB org would take a cut too. And I don't know the Japanese schedule, is it perhaps too late in their offseason to get a big guarantee? It might be a comparable bet, money-wise, for Vargas to try hanging on for as much of the MLB minimum salary he can get this year ($545k). If he can get 4 months service time this year, he could be arbitration eligible next winter too. And even if he doesn't perform, he might have a comparable/better opportunity to go to Asia just after the 2018 season, perhaps as a free agent?
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