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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    308 PA: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cave--000jak&type=bgl&year=2017
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Cave was selected in the Rule 5 draft (2nd overall) by Cincinnati in December 2015, but returned to the Yankees by opening day 2016. That was the first year he was eligible for Rule 5. He then went unselected in December 2016, and the Yankees protected him with a 40-man roster spot before the Dec. 2017 draft.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There's this kid Kirkland who is usable. Another one named Kroger who has a nice personality.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    DFA used to be 10 days, now it is just 7 days. We could also waive him, which I think would have to be done within 4 days (as waivers takes 3 days). If he went unclaimed, we could outright him off the 40-man roster to the minors.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, Cave has all 3 of his option years remaining. He wasn't added to a 40-man roster until last November (which suggests the Yankees were concerned about losing him in the Rule 5 draft).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Burdi is actually only 25. And while Chargois is 27, he's also more advanced than Kinley, with success at AAA and even some in MLB.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting, our RP depth was considered strong enough to leave Bard and Burdi unprotected (the latter an almost guaranteed Rule 5 selection), and to try sneaking Chargois through waivers. (And to drop Boshers.) In that context, I am not sure keeping Kinley matters all that much.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Rule 5 picks can be traded, but they keep their Rule 5 restrictions. Just like how last year, the Angels actually selected Haley and traded him to us. However, if you want to send Kinley to the minor leagues, or just return him to Miami, you need to remove the Rule 5 restrictions first. That means offering him up on waivers, with Rule 5 restrictions attached, if anyone else wants to claim him and keep him on their roster, like he was their own Rule 5 pick. If he clears waivers, Rule 5 restrictions are gone, but he has to be offered back to the Marlins for $50k. At that point we could work out a deal for him, just like any other minor league player.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Those that want to trade for Kinley -- how much are you willing to give up? Keep in mind he is 27 years old, would be off our 40 man roster, and might be something like 12th on our RP depth chart (without even considering the SP who could be promoted as RP before him, or guys like Chargois we might find on waivers ourselves). And he'd be eligible for Rule 5 again next winter if not protected, although he can't become a minor league free agent until after 2019. If the Marlins let him go for $50k, sure, but anything more than that, it might be best to just cut our losses if he's not good enough to make it this spring. I remember similar calls to trade and keep Haley last year, so perhaps it's just a reflexive suggestion.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I've posted this elsewhere, but I like the McCullers 2015 plan for Romero, giving us the option of keeping him starting in Minnesota through September and hopefully into October (assuming he performs, of course): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccull002lan&type=pgl&year=2015
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that concern too. They have dipped down to AA for position players before, but that's a different beast than SP. Jorge was basically a desperation move last year, after we trotted out some of our worst starters, and before we added Littel and Enns and promoted Gonsalves to AAA. (And now demoted Mejia to AAA.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure how extra rain last April would mean extra rain is more likely this April. In any case, with his innings limit, Romero doesn't need to be on any strict 5 day schedule for his 1st month in the minors this year. 1 start every 7 days or so would be best, to potentially lengthen his season later. You could shorten that up just before a potential MLB promotion.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Diamond is kind of the exception that proves the rule. I don't think there has been a similar Rule 5 trade in all of MLB for the last 6 years or so: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results Although if anyone would make that deal now, it could be the Marlins, just to avoid paying the $50k required to take the player back.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Kinley would have to clear waivers first in order to be traded to the Twins and sent to the minors. Not impossible, but such a move is pretty rare among Rule 5 picks. After all, if Kinley shows enough promise for us to want to trade for him, another club may want to claim him, perhaps only to work out a deal with the Marlins themselves.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    He spent plenty of time in AAA in 2016 (17 starts). Even before his MLB debut, he had 16 career starts in AAA and 23 more at AA. Seems the MLB experience was necessary to expose the problem before it could even be addressed. (Perhaps it could have been exposed and addressed earlier with a 2015 promotion to MLB?)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if Berrios is a particularly good example of that, though. What do you think was a bigger factor in Berrios' improvement in 2017 -- the extra 6 AAA starts, or learning from his 2016 MLB experience? Do you think he would have been substantially improved in 2016 with 6 more AAA starts before his call-up? The other issue is, sometimes it just clicks for a prospect. If Thrylos's report on Romero's changeup is accurate (I have no idea), Romero might be at that point.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I get skepticism about innings limits, but I think that ship has sailed. These pitchers are big long-term investments for clubs. Best we can hope for is a fairly flexible limit -- aim for 150 but be willing to stretch to 160+ as circumstances allow.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean to suggest Romero would be as good as McCullers or worthy of a postseason rotation spot as a rookie, but I was just leaving room in the plan for that possibility unfolding.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    While SP prospects can and do contribute out of the pen, I'd like to see us aim to allow Romero to contribute in 2018 as a starter if necessary, through the end of the MLB season and into a potential postseason. As an example, Lance McCullers Jr. was coming off similar low innings and inexperience entering 2015: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mccull002lan&type=pgl&year=2015 They started him slowly in the minor leagues, promoted him in May, demoted him for 2 weeks of rest in August, and then let him finish the season in MLB and in the postseason rotation. Wound up with 125 IP in MLB, 35 in the minors, and 6 more in the postseason. The Twins could follow a similar pattern with Romero in 2018, perhaps a little more conservative with a target of 150 IP before any potential postseason innings. Obviously this wouldn't be locked in stone, but if we start out with this template, it is still easy to shift to other plans as the season develops -- leave him in AAA if he's not ready, or shift him to the pen, or shut him down. But if you start out with one of those other plans, it becomes almost impossible to even have the option of Romero starting through September.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The Sanchez guarantee was indeed strange, even if it was on the margins of roster and payroll. He had minor league deal, nonroster invite written all over him. And he signed right at the same time as we acquired Odorizzi, and we knew about the slow market for Lynn/Cobb, so it's not like we were that desperate at the time.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    50% of your 40% is Kyle Gibson, and I wouldn't count him as a long-term drafting & developing success yet. And Gonsalves and Romero are still "pie-in-the-sky" as you like to say. (Romero in particular is coming off a career-high 125 IP, I'd be mildly surprised if he's starting anywhere in September.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    What was Lynn pitching for last season? How did Hector Santiago do, pitching for his next contract last season? (Not comparing Lynn to Santiago as pitchers, just noting that I don't see "pitching for his next contract" as a meaningful factor. Guys generally pitch to the best of their health and ability regardless.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL. Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans. Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever. You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually an interesting deal structure for Arrieta -- he can opt out after 2 years, but if he does so, the Phillies can exercise a 2/40 extension.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Kinley would have to clear waivers (albeit with Rule 5 restrictions attached) before the Twins could trade for him and remove Rule 5 restrictions. If he shows enough promise to be worth a trade, another team might put in a claim. Hence these kind of Rule 5 trades are fairly rare. Of course, if he does clear waivers, the Marlins might be cheap enough to deal him for financial reasons (they'd have to pay $50k to take him back).
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