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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to Moustakas, Stephen Drew did it with Boston too, albeit after a bit of a hold out.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Far be it from me to impugn the wisdom of a crowd of which I was a part, but I think most of us were blinded a bit by hope in that evaluation. I think Bonnes had the more realistic take. We weren't on the verge of losing him, and if he really had turned a corner, he was going to be incredibly valuable to us in trade or performance the next 2 years. Plus we had plenty of risk mitigation that he could regress or get hurt and still provide value over those 2 years (which, optimism aside, had a fairly high likelihood). The extension basically cut off a lot of that potential surplus value, and much of that risk mitigation, in favor of a higher threshold of more speculative surplus value farther down the line. That said, it wasn't a terrible deal, like Ian Desmond with Colorado or something. It was just less than optimal. It may have been helped by our GM change, assuming Falvine was more likely to cut bait in a timely manner than TR.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It was 5.9 fWAR using FIP, but using actual runs allowed, it was only 4.5 bWAR. Still a very good season, but maybe not as close to elite as the Fangraphs figure suggests. Also, the extension was actually for $14 mil per year. I think it would have been a fine deal if he had been a free agent, but he still had 2/16 left on his original deal. We set aside a lot of potential surplus value for those 2 years chasing a lesser amount of more speculative value in years 3-5.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, you could say that *optioning* him right away doesn't make sense. Might as well use extended rehab for any immediate minor league work he might need. (Although saving his option year for his age 29 season might not make sense either, but we did wind up using options on Gibson at age 29, and Pressly at age 28.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Andrew Miller isn't even Andrew Miller until the postseason. In the regular season, he has averaged right around 1 IP per appearance. There are very, very few Miller types in the regular season, and only for short terms. Hader might be doing it for Milwaukee right now, but we will see how long it lasts. The Twins might want such a performance, but I am highly skeptical any of their pitchers could provide it (except perhaps Berrios or Romero, who are obviously in other roles).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Fangraphs bases that on a static ~$7 mil per win value, which we know isn't very useful in this context. For the 2014 Twins, marginal wins weren't particularly valuable. The Twins best paths to value in that performance were in boosting his trade value or in its repeatability. Unfortunately the Twins made a fairly big bet on the latter and lost it almost immediately, as Hughes instantly returned to being a ~2 WAR SP in 2015 (his NY peak) before injuries set in.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be clear, a player's service time "clock" doesn't so much "start" when they are called up, as it does "run" while they are up and "pause" when they are sent down. If they sent Gonsalves down after 2 starts, the clock would pause just like it did for Felix Jorge last summer. And like Jorge (and Romero), Gonsalves's "option clock" has already begun too. This already qualifies as an option year for him, so there is zero marginal cost to the Twins (in terms of options) to recall him and send him back down as many times as they like this season. Now, in the context of cutting Lynn, it still might not make sense, but that is primarily on the cutting Lynn side, and perhaps on the subjective Gonsalves scouting side. It should have nothing to do with his service time clock or options at this point.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Beware the insurance trolls! This DFA almost certainly puts to rest the idea that the Twins could expect to recoup any meaningful portion of Hughes's salary through insurance.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That's worth an above-average 106 wRC+ or 102 OPS+. Plus baserunning (5 SB) and solid CF defense, by the metrics anyway. Hicks is on pace for a ~3 WAR season.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Cave's bat has been heating up at AAA too. And he's 4 years younger than LaMarre, and has all of his option years remaining. I think they want to get a closer look at him before any roster crunches arise.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In modern pro baseball, the hope is that your pitcher will miss some bats. Doesn't sound like Jay missed many here. His season K rate is down to 16% now, versus a league K rate of 23%. Maybe not a guy you want to bring in with a runner on 2nd and nobody out. Maybe not a guy on the fast track to MLB either...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind Enlow just turned 19 in March, and is the youngest pitcher on the Cedar Rapids staff. Younger than all the position players too, except Royce Lewis.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Just announced last night: "Miguel Sano heading out on rehab assignment for Triple-A Rochester" https://www.twincities.com/2018/05/18/miguel-sano-hamstring-nearing-rehab-assignment-for-twins-affiliate/amp/
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the poster was referring to the July 2015 decision, to keep Pelf in the rotation and bump May to the pen. The magic had worn off Pelfrey by then, season ERA up to 3.94. Meanwhile May had a close ERA and much better FIP/xFIP, and was actually pitching 6-7 innings more consistently at that point too. You were probably thinking of the decision coming out of spring training, although thanks to Nolasco's injury, May still joined the rotation on the second turn. And sure enough, after the July decision, Pelfrey posted a 4.66 ERA the rest of the season, and actually got skipped in the rotation during our September pennant race. Probably wouldn't have made our playoff roster, had we reached the postseason.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Petit's transactions list at MLB.com has him optioned for 20+ days in each of 2015 and 2009. Of course, it really only goes back to 2009. It lists one transaction from March 2008 but ignores how he was also up and down with Oakland that year, as evidenced by his B-Ref minor league game logs and his Fox Sports transactions page, so he almost assuredly used an option that year too. Perhaps Roster Resource is only relying on the post 2008 data? He is 33 years old, who has played in 5 MLB seasons but accumulated only 2 years service time, it would be unusual for him to have an option remaining. Wouldn't be surprising to see a player that old "break" something like Roster Resource. In any case, he has never been claimed on waivers either, and he's basically been a minor league free agent every year for the past 8 winters, so I suspect we could keep him in AAA even if we can't option him. Unless he elected free agency, which could be fairly risky for him to do midseason. Looks like he accepted his previous midseason outright assignment, back in 2015. Of course, he wasn't batting .438 back then either!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Petit is not optionable, so it's a moot point.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    About the 40-man -- in addition to Castro going on the 60-day DL, I could easily see LaMarre and/or Cave getting DFA'd. Plus Petit, as soon as Sano is back. Duffey is pretty expendable at this point too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    There was only one out at the time.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    The coach was waving him around, it was pretty clear on one of replays during the game broadcast.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd be worried about him falling into the path of the train. Better just get an Uber.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... put Grossman behind the plate, you say?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    A word of caution for fellow posters: don't take the bait! Serenity now!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Doubtful. Hughes's health has been a problem long enough now that even if he was once insured, that policy term has likely expired (most contract insurance is just for 2-3 years) and he's been practically uninsurable for awhile now (the premiums would be basically equal to his salary). And to my knowledge, there has never been a media report about contract insurance for Hughes either, while I think it had been mentioned for past injured Twins players like Joe Nathan and Ricky Nolasco.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Dodgers kind of need Kemp right now. With Seager out, Taylor moves back to the infield, and their outfield is pretty thin. Don't think there is any chance of moving Hughes right now. The only possibility is exchanging him for a greater dead weight deal to relieve another team of some luxury tax burden, but I don't think any team is going to be looking at luxury tax until next winter. And of course, such a deal may not even make sense from the Twins perspective, if they take on more cash for a really bad player.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not questioning why we claimed Cave in the first place, I liked the move. I am questioning his value if he can't crack an outfield featuring Grossman/LaMarre every day. And that's not to say that Cave should be cut today, but rather he shouldn't be invoked as a depth-chart reason to hold back Wade. The Twins outfield plans are apparently pretty tenuous past the top 3 of Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, and Wade deserves to be in the conversation for that 4th spot somehow -- if not by MLB promotion, then at least AAA.
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