Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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If you're selling midseason, you don't need veteran replacements. You should be auditioning younger arms for 2019 at that point.- 82 replies
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- matt belisle
- alan busenitz
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Meh, Petit isn't playing anyway. And if Mauer comes back, he's going to be taking 1B/DH at-bats, which is going to push us to play Sano at third pretty much exclusively, rendering Petit even less necessary.
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I didn't mean that the Twins won't have other positions to upgrade. I just think the relative upgrade of Realmuto at catcher might be greater than the relative upgrade of any other single position. So I disagree with Brian's argument of, "let's save our prospects to upgrade at another position instead". I'm disappointed with Sano and Buxton, but I don't think there's any way you replace them before opening day 2019. We've got plenty of cash to address the other needs you mention, if we want. But I don't see how cash is going to help much at catcher.
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Of course there is a price for Realmuto that is too high, but I'd be curious what that is. Let's use an earlier poster's research as a baseline: So Gordon, Gonsalves, Rooker, and Rortvedt for Realmuto. (Or Gordon, Gonsalves, Javier, and Garver for Realmuto.) What do you all think? Yea or nay? If there was any such thing as a Marlins fan, I would be curious of their perspective too. I'm sure they might rather get an elite prospect, but looking around, I'm not sure one would be forthcoming. I could see them waiting until the deadline but eventually accepting this offer.
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Question marks, sure, but Buxton is your best bet in CF right now. He's not getting replaced before 2019. Same for Sano, really, although it might not be at 3B. 3 of the guys you mention replacing just signed here on fairly cheap 1 year deals. I think those positions are easier to address in free agency. (And we may have enough pitchers to not worry too much about further external replacements, especially considering we have team options on Santana and Rodney.) And we're flush with cash after the season. We can easily re-sign Dozier and/or Escobar if we want too. What is your plan for 2019 at catcher? Here are the potential free agents: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html Drew Butera (35) Robinson Chirinos (35) — $2.375MM club option with a $100K buyout A.J. Ellis (38) Tyler Flowers (33) Yasmani Grandal (30) Nick Hundley (35) Jonathan Lucroy (33) Martin Maldonado (32) Jeff Mathis (36) Brian McCann (35) — $15MM club/player option Devin Mesoraco (31) Miguel Montero (35) Wilson Ramos (31) Rene Rivera (35) Kurt Suzuki (35) Matt Wieters (33) Note this also suggests the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Braves, etc. could be looking for catchers too, so there would be competition.
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True. Don't even need a roster spot immediately. In a few days, if we are ready to activate Mauer, we could probably drop Petit. Probably don't have to touch Cave/LaMarre/Grossman until Polanco comes back, or Buxton, or if we want to add a 13th pitcher again.
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Shouldn't we be looking at the relative improvement? Looks like the Twins catchers are about replacement level. If Realmuto comes in and posts a prorated 3-4 WAR over a 120 game season, that's still a 3-4 win improvement per season. If the Twins had another long-term hole to fill that could yield a similar relative improvement, I'd be all ears, but I don't see one. The other spots seem covered (or at least have the best potential to be covered) from within.
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To be fair, in both of those deals the catchers were packaged with very good relievers (Lucroy plus Jeremy Jeffress, and Avila plus Justin Wilson). Of course, the Marlins might try to do the same. Or just ask the equivalent price, since Realmuto is younger with more team control than the aforementioned catchers were.
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Article: Week in Review: Status Quo
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hear Astudillo doesn't have much of a defensive rep. Also, his offensive game is largely predicated on not striking out, which is very intriguing but raises questions about how it translates to the bigs. Not sure if you can really swap him for Garver at this point, or if it would cause too much inconsistency to pair him with Garver... -
No option, but with his salary and limitations, there is a decent chance Grossman would clear waivers and could be outrighted to AAA.
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Article: Twins Prospects and the Final Piece
Otto von Ballpark replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Polanco was already on the 40-man for Rule 5 purposes when we first called him up. -
I don't think Enns has missed a rotation turn yet this season, with the possible exception of his time in DFA limbo over a month ago. Jaye was sold to Cleveland a couple weeks ago, May has been in relief the last couple weeks, and Baxendale is a reliever too who has just led off some bullpen games (a lot of doubleheaders?). Bencomo is no great shakes, but he's on a roll and there is certainly an argument to be made that he is better than Enns right now -- keep in mind Enns is 27, with a 7.1 career K/9 at AAA, and just cleared waivers earlier this season. He's much closer to Bencomo's journeyman status than the prospect status of his Rochester rotation mates right now.
- 9 replies
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- ben rortvedt
- omar bencomo
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Players can't get more than 1 qualifying offer in their career anymore, per the new CBA. So we couldn't offer one to Lynn.
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- lance lyyn
- robbie grossman
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I might quibble the Morrison has a "good track record" -- he had 3.7 bWAR last season, but he has 1.5 bWAR for the other ~3000 PA of his career. That's like 0.3 WAR per full season, almost the literal definition of replacement player. Morrison's 2017 has earned him all the slack he is getting now -- not his pre-2017 track record.
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- royce lewis
- brent rooker
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So cherry picking mediocre age 25 seasons from the past means what exactly? Still means Sano is mediocre. Do you expect Sano to add significant power to his current game like Dozier, Puckett, and Gaetti did to improve their OPS figures after age 25? Or post a 12.3% career K rate like Mientkiewicz? (I'll ignore Koskie's 35 PA and Gladden's 72 here too.)
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FYI, "Def" is probably the wrong stat to use for this purpose. It is a counting stat so it punishes Sano for his DL stint and playing 1B/DH. The more proper comparison would be UZR/150. The ranks may still look similar, but it is just best practice. Use the fielding leaderboard, filter by 3B, set a 200 inning minimum to get Sano on the list, and sort by UZR/150. Sano still ranks 32 out of 34, with a -25.7 mark. His career mark is only -3.2, though, so is it small sample or is he getting notably worse? He was at -0.6 last year. All of these are pretty small samples -- Sano only has about 1300 innings at 3B for his career, which is about the equivalent of one full season for a guy like Dozier at 2B. By the same measure, Dozier ranks 19th out of 32 this year. But is very close to average at -1.5 (and only -0.1 for his career).
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What do you think the corresponding move is? Back to 12 pitchers and calling up Cave? Motter? Or swapping Duffey for another reliever like Busenitz?
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Realmuto is younger than all of those guys, though. In fact, he just turned 27, and is controlled through age 29. Morrison had a career year at 29, and Mauer and Lucroy were all star catchers through age 30.
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Rumor had it the Marlins were asking for OF Tucker (top 20 prospect) for Realmuto this winter: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/marlins-astros-discussing-j-t-realmuto.html The Nationals inquired about him too, but were unwilling to include either of their top OF prospects, Robles or Soto: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/nationals-pursuing-j-t-realmuto.html
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Yeah, a Gordon-led package feels like something the Marlins might accept at the deadline, but probably not in early June. Leading with Lewis could seal it earlier...
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When Lucroy was dealt at the deadline in 2016, he fetched a consensus top-30 guy (OF Brinson) and a top-60 guy (P Ortiz). Of course, Lucroy was packaged with a reliever Jeffress, but also Lucroy was already 30 and had only 1 year of control left after that season. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rangers-to-acquire-jonathan-lucroy-2.html Of course, that was only after Lucroy invoked his no-trade clause to block at deal to Cleveland, which would have netted the Brewers a top-40 guy (C Mejia) but no one else ranked in a top 100 list.
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Gordon could be close to that. Here are his preseason ranks: BP 30 Sickels 60 Fangraphs 77 MLB 80 BA 93 Plus he's had a great start to the season. But yeah, the second piece in the deal could hurt too. Not sure if Gonsalves would even be enough...
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Great post. I've never been really high on Gordon, but I like the way he's come out of the gate this year. I wonder if this would be selling high on him, a bit? Plus we certainly have the financial resources to re-sign Dozier and/or Escobar next winter too.
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You are correct, May has an option. I suppose they could swap him for Duffey in a few days, although Duffey looked fairly useful yesterday.
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Roster Resource is pretty good for that: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Gordon, Wade, and Tyler Jay are the main guys who will need to be added. A few more relievers could be too (Nick Anderson, Andrew Vasquez).
